The gap between Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli / Leo Carlson

[QJL]

This post will be a fun one to look back on in a few years.

You’re going to need to wait 5 due to the Michkov delay.

 

[rt]

Carlsson was a legit 1C in the SHL to end the season. I don't think he's close to Bedard but he's probably the best swedish prospect since Dahlin and before him Nicklas Bäckström.
A good comparable would be Mats Sundin.

Michkov is hard to judge as well as the current status of the KHL. Why do you think he's better than Fantilli/Carlsson?

Pretty sure Carlsson played wing most or all of the time this season, and also last season. He may be a center in the long-term, but has been a winger for a while, from what I understand. I don’t watch the SHL, though.

 

[HaNotsri]

Pretty sure Carlsson played wing most or all of the time this season, and also last season. He may be a center in the long-term, but has been a winger for a while, from what I understand. I don’t watch the SHL, though.

My bad, thought he centered Bromé and Öberg but he clearly didn't

 

[ZEBROA]

Seen the movie the Abyss?

 

[BB88]

I’ll put it this way…

I would trade both Fantilli and Carlsson together for Michkov.

I would trade Fantilli, Carlsson, and Michkov for Bedard.

Michkov is not #99

Both Fantilli& Carlsson carry franchise C potential.
You don’t trade 1 Mackinnon for Michkov not to mention Mackinnon+ Pettersson for Kucherov

 

[Pazucha]

I would trade Fantilli, Carlsson, and Michkov for Bedard.

Interesting take i know Bedard is much better than all of them. But i think any team would have much bigger chance getting a cup with Fantilli, Carlsson and Michkov on the same team as opposed to only having Bedard. You never know Bedard career can be full of injuries (Hopefully not).

Or am i wrong?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He might not turn out to be a better nhl player than McDavid but he’s definitely a better prospect

Lol no he's not

 

[Mathieukferland]

Lol no he's not

Higher PPG across regular season career (playing with a significantly worse tean), higher playoff PPG, higher international PPG (and by a wide margin); you can debate whether his skillset will translate better to the NHL than McDavid (which I think it won’t) but he has clearly been the better and more productive prospect

 

[Albatros]

Lol no he's not

Connor Bedard: WHL 2.02 ppg (playoffs 2.86 ppg) & WJC 2.25 ppg
Connor McDavid: OHL 1.72 ppg (playoffs 2.00 ppg) & WJC 1.07 ppg

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Higher PPG across regular season career (playing with a significantly worse tean), higher playoff PPG, higher international PPG (and by a wide margin); you can debate whether his skillset will translate better to the NHL than McDavid (which I think it won’t) but he has clearly been the better and more productive prospect

Being the marginally more productive prospect does not make him the better prospect.

I can't believe this has to be explained.

Connor Bedard: WHL 2.02 ppg (playoffs 2.86 ppg) & WJC 2.25 ppg
Connor McDavid: OHL 1.72 ppg (playoffs 2.00 ppg) & WJC 1.07 ppg

Career numbers are meaningless, especially when one guy played a much larger proportion of his junior career.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Being the marginally more productive prospect does not make him the better prospect.

I can't believe this has to be explained.


Career numbers are meaningless, especially when one guy played a much larger proportion of his junior career.

Ok go ahead and explain then why you think McDavid was a better prospect than Bedard despite having worse production

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Ok go ahead and explain then why you think McDavid was a better prospect than Bedard despite having worse production

For the same reason Jordan Dumais isn't a better prospect than Matthew Savoie despite being more productive.

I can't believe this needs explaining.

 

[Albatros]

Being the marginally more productive prospect does not make him the better prospect.

I can't believe this has to be explained.


Career numbers are meaningless, especially when one guy played a much larger proportion of his junior career.

Well, it's 166 OHL games for McDavid and 134 WHL games for Bedard. Especially considering that Bedard has a much later birthday I don't think the 32 fewer games make any real difference here.

 

[57special]

You could say that for Bedards shot/goal scoring as well

absolutely.

 

[57special]

So, there are now worries that Michkov's, and especially Bedard's, lack of size will cause them difficulties in the NHL?

I say this as a fan of a team that picked Marco Rossi, who, during his draft, was dubbed as one of the most, "NHL ready" prospects, and was told to ignore size, because it's "all about the skills."

 

[Fatass]

Bedard


Carlsson
Michkov

Fantilli

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well, it's 166 OHL games for McDavid and 134 WHL games for Bedard. Especially considering that Bedard has a much later birthday I don't think the 32 fewer games make any real difference here.

Bedard played 12% of his WHL career as a 15 year old (in an extremely watered down WHL due to COVID), and 43% as a 17 year old.

McDavid played 38% of his OHL career as a 15 year old and only 28% as a 17 year old.

Surely you understand now?

So, there are now worries that Michkov's, and especially Bedard's, lack of size will cause them difficulties in the NHL?

I say this as a fan of a team that picked Marco Rossi, who, during his draft, was dubbed as one of the most, "NHL ready" prospects, and was told to ignore size, because it's "all about the skills."

I do think there are valid concerns for guys who are smaller while not being the most dynamic skaters. Though I will say in Rossi's case, COVID seemed to really take a toll on him during a key part of his development.

 

[Albatros]

Bedard played 12% of his WHL career as a 15 year old (in an extremely watered down WHL due to COVID), and 43% as a 17 year old.

McDavid played 38% of his OHL career as a 15 year old and only 28% as a 17 year old.

Surely you understand now?

Bedard had 28 points in the 15 games (1.87 ppg) he played in that first major junior season. McDavid had 66 points in 63 games (1.05 ppg). To be tied in junior career games and points with McDavid, Bedard would have only needed 14 points in the missing 32 games (0.44 ppg). Even at 15 he was far above that level.

And as already pointed out, Bedard really played all of his season as a 15, 16, 17-year-old. McDavid turned 16, 17, 18 halfway through the season. Bedard missing a part of his 15-yo season due to COVID at most partially evens that out.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Bedard had 28 points in the 15 games (1.87 ppg) he played in that first major junior season. McDavid had 66 points in 63 games (1.05 ppg). To be tied in junior career games and points with McDavid, Bedard would have only needed 14 points in the missing 32 games (0.44 ppg).

And as already pointed out, Bedard really played all of his season as a 15, 16, 17-year-old. McDavid turned 16, 17, 18 halfway through the season. Bedard missing a part of his 15-yo season due to COVID at most partially evens that out.

It doesn't though. Match up McDavid's PPG by season and assume he proportionally played the same amounts of his career at each age, and their PPGs are much closer.

Also, you are completely overlooking how terrible the WHL was in Bedard's COVID year.

 

[Fatass]

Bedard had 28 points in the 15 games (1.87 ppg) he played in that first major junior season. McDavid had 66 points in 63 games (1.05 ppg). To be tied in junior career games and points with McDavid, Bedard would have only needed 14 points in the missing 32 games (0.44 ppg). Even at 15 he was far above that level.

And as already pointed out, Bedard really played all of his season as a 15, 16, 17-year-old. McDavid turned 16, 17, 18 halfway through the season. Bedard missing a part of his 15-yo season due to COVID at most partially evens that out.

Yup. And don’t we all just watch Bedard dominate the WJC, as a 17 year old, with historic numbers?

 

[BB88]

So, there are now worries that Michkov's, and especially Bedard's, lack of size will cause them difficulties in the NHL?

I say this as a fan of a team that picked Marco Rossi, who, during his draft, was dubbed as one of the most, "NHL ready" prospects, and was told to ignore size, because it's "all about the skills."

With smaller players skating becomes even more valuable.

You really want them to be elite tier skaters to lower the risk factor.

 

[Albatros]

It doesn't though. Match up McDavid's PPG by season and assume he proportionally played the same amounts of his career at each age, and their PPGs are much closer.

Also, you are completely overlooking how terrible the WHL was in Bedard's COVID year.

McDavid is half year older relative to his age class, so by default he was older for half of his season. Anything that Bedard got out of COVID stoppages at most negates some of that factor. Regarding the level of other talent, McDavid played for a powerhouse team together with Connor Brown, Dylan Strome, and Alex DeBrincat which certainly did not hurt his numbers. McDavid never even lead his own team in scoring.

 

[QJL]

Michkov is not #99

Both Fantilli& Carlsson carry franchise C potential.
You don’t trade 1 Mackinnon for Michkov not to mention Mackinnon+ Pettersson for Kucherov

My comparisons are Fantilli = Dubois and Carlsson = Boldy.

I’ll trade Dubois and Boldy for Kucherov all day. It’s close.

 

[Mathieukferland]

For the same reason Jordan Dumais isn't a better prospect than Matthew Savoie despite being more productive.

I can't believe this needs explaining.

For the same reason Jordan Dumais isn't a better prospect than Matthew Savoie despite being more productive.

I can't believe this needs explaining.

So you’re saying you believe McDavid, despite his inferior production, is a better prospect than Bedard because he projects better? Or what?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

McDavid is half year older relative to his age class, so by default he was older for half of his season.

Actually that's not even true. Bedard's 15 year old season didn't even start until March, 6-7 months after the season typically begins.

Anything that Bedard got out of COVID stoppages at most negates some of that factor. Regarding the level of other talent, McDavid played for a powerhouse team together with Connor Brown, Dylan Strome, and Alex DeBrincat which certainly did not hurt his numbers.

McDavid definitely had more talent around him, but also played in a better and lower scoring league. And still had the more productive draft year (2.55 ppg vs 2.51 ppg) despite injury.

McDavid never even lead his own team in scoring.

I wonder why that is...