The gap between Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli / Leo Carlson
- Thread starter ayrton2388
- Start date
Also I'm fairly confident the OHL has historically been a lower scoring league than the WHL but I don't have the willpower to get the data.
I think it's typically the opposite, but this year scoring is way up in the WHL, especially among the top scorers.
Well in any case. As a fan of the team with the best odds at Bedard I feel fairly confident saying he's not the same level of prospect as McDavid. If the Ducks got him I'd be thrilled if he ended up as a 100-115 point player. There's more to prospects than just production.
OKR
Registered User
- Nov 18, 2015
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Before all the War stuff with Russia etc. Bedard and Michkov were considered closer to 1A/1B than 1st and distant 4th, since then Michkov has done nothing but kept performing at a high level agains tougher competition and suddenly he is ”clearly” behind not only Bedard but also Fantilli and Carlson? Why?
A very quick and easy to accomplish calculation:
2014-2015 OHL season - 7.01 GPG
2022-2023 WHL season - 6.95 GPG
Personally, even if the risk factor is low, I'd call it that Fantilli or Carlsson are clearly a safer bet. Even without the present extenuating circumstances you have the greater than zero chance that a KHL player simply won't want to come over. The Devils, Knights, and Lightning made up a trip of teams that waited 7 years for Nikita Gusev to come over. Michkov you have to wait another 3 just for that contract to expire.
If the unlikely scenario that he never comes over transpires, it's a blown and wasted pick in a draft where two other players with franchise player upside are available.
Thanks. Happy to admit I'm wrong. Might be that I just mentally compared the top scorers from both leagues in the wrong years and formed and incorrect assumption.
Either way, I don't think the disparity in production between McDavid and Bedard is sufficient to say that the latter is the better pre-NHL prospect. As much as I'd like that to be the case if it benefitted my team.
Its not a perfect stat obviously as there are many factors that contribute (ie. strength of league) but i just thought it was worth presenting since it was easy to quickly calculate!
I agree I don’t think the “Bedard is a better prospect because look at the numbers” argument is valid. For me I just want to wait and see how it all plays out. I’m sure whether or not he ends up better than McDavid he will be a one-of-a-kind player and a pleasure to watch in the NHL.
UnSandvich
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- Sep 7, 2017
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Carlsson & Fantilli both have physical advantages over Michkov (and Bedard for that matter). But in terms of Hockey IQ, Michkov is up there with Bedard, and one could argue better
WarriorofTime
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It's A LOT of hindsight bias since well we know what McDavid did in the NHL and we know he was on the mega-hype generational tier so easy to assume we all just always knew right away how obvious it would be...
But I think McDavid's skating probably made him a bit more projectable. Shots don't project moving up quite as easily and plenty of kids that score as easily in Juniors don't in the NHL, whereas if you can skate you can skate and that's why it's the first thing that scouts look at for any player.
Nitpicking 2014-15 OHL vs. 2022-23 WHL is just that a nitpick. If you *REALLY* want to go into the weeds of it, you can point out how USA-based players in the OHL region are stronger and more prone to opt for the OHL than the WHL (which covers a lot less hockey hotbeds, and USA kids don't often opt for the WHL which has a tough travel schedule), and the the Import Draft Ban on Russia since the invasion takes out a few more good players compared to McDavid's Junior days, and I think Finnish and Swedish kids don't like to come to the WHL for the same reason as Americans (travel schedule). The nationality breakdown of 2014-15 OHL was 78.0 % Canada, 14.0 % USA, 2.5 % Russia, 2.5 % Sweden, 1.0 % Finland, 0.9 % Czech Republic. The nationality breakdown of 2022-23 WHL was 88.6 % Canada, 5.2 % USA, 2.4 % Czech Republic, 1.0 % Belarus, 0.6 % Slovakia, 0.5 % Finland, 0.4 % Russia, 0.4 % Sweden..... but as I said, this is like SUPER MARGINAL when looking at the tippy top prospects on a generational scale.
But I think McDavid's skating probably made him a bit more projectable. Shots don't project moving up quite as easily and plenty of kids that score as easily in Juniors don't in the NHL, whereas if you can skate you can skate and that's why it's the first thing that scouts look at for any player.
Nitpicking 2014-15 OHL vs. 2022-23 WHL is just that a nitpick. If you *REALLY* want to go into the weeds of it, you can point out how USA-based players in the OHL region are stronger and more prone to opt for the OHL than the WHL (which covers a lot less hockey hotbeds, and USA kids don't often opt for the WHL which has a tough travel schedule), and the the Import Draft Ban on Russia since the invasion takes out a few more good players compared to McDavid's Junior days, and I think Finnish and Swedish kids don't like to come to the WHL for the same reason as Americans (travel schedule). The nationality breakdown of 2014-15 OHL was 78.0 % Canada, 14.0 % USA, 2.5 % Russia, 2.5 % Sweden, 1.0 % Finland, 0.9 % Czech Republic. The nationality breakdown of 2022-23 WHL was 88.6 % Canada, 5.2 % USA, 2.4 % Czech Republic, 1.0 % Belarus, 0.6 % Slovakia, 0.5 % Finland, 0.4 % Russia, 0.4 % Sweden..... but as I said, this is like SUPER MARGINAL when looking at the tippy top prospects on a generational scale.
TLEH
Pronounced T-Lay
Feel like they’re actually similar as prospects. McDavid just has gone beyond the hype at this point.
barkovcanfinnish
remember to breathe
Bedard has the potential to be in a similar tier to McDavid. Michkov’s potential maybe like a Kucherov tier. Fantilli and Carlsson possibly in tiers with guys like peak Giroux or peak Toews?
Size and skating. Michkov isn't much bigger than he was back then and not much better as a skater. Bedard has gotten a lot stronger as a skater and has filled out. I watched every bit of Sochi I could and Michkov looked like a slow version of Johnny Gaudreau.
If he actually measures up at 5'10 170+ (which he is listed at in some places) I would be surprised and more confident in his NHL projection. My guess is that he's actually more like 5'8 160. Call me a dinosaur scout if you want but I'll take the 6'3 #1C.
WarriorofTime
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Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
I think it’s arguable that Bedard’s draft year has been stronger than McDavid’s. But McDavid has just gotten better and better every year since he was drafted at an unprecedented rate, in part because of the elite tools that Bedard doesn’t have. I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume that Bedard will do the same.
BB88
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- Jan 19, 2015
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Well no wonder when you seriously underrate them.
Fantilli just had one of the best NCAA seasons by draft player and he’s ceiling is Dubois?
Carlsson had one of the best SHL seasons in the last 20 years and he’s Boldy?
& Michkov is Kucherov?
Where does that make sense?
Because of the seasons they just had?
Because how people predict their game to translate?
Because they are projected to be C’s?
hamzarocks
Registered User
Bedards shot is the more then production
He has the it factor when he shoots similar to mcdavid on rushes as a prospect
I dont see Bedard being less then a 100 pt player at minimum
His ceiling is to be a perennial ross/hart/libdsay/rocket challnger like 97
PensandCaps
Beddy Tlueger
- May 22, 2015
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Fantilli can't be too far off from Bedard, considering his size and production in college.
And he's only gonna get stronger with that shot. Idk if it's better than Matthews or not, but if it is, idk how you could stop that as a goalie.
The overrating of Michkov and underrating of Fantilli the past couple of months here has been something. Maybe just an overcorrection from the fall when people thought Fantilli could challenge Bedard for 1oa and things were quiet for Michkov.
Right now:
Bedard
----wide gap
Fantilli
Carlson
Michkov
----wide gap
everyone else
Right now:
Bedard
----wide gap
Fantilli
Carlson
Michkov
----wide gap
everyone else
BondraTime
Registered User
The gap is enormous. The only guys the past 20 years it isn’t enormous is Crosby, OV and McDavid.
I am not saying Bedard is better prospect but while McDavid has clearly more speed, it is also clear who has the better shot and demonstrated better clutch play in their respective jr career.
Furthermore, there is nothing more important than to put the puck in the net, and this is where Bedard excells. Shots age well, speed doesn‘t.
Keep in mind Bedard is 2005 born while the three other are all 2004. They're all a developmental year ahead of him.
This is probably best case scenario for each player but Bedard should be slightly ahead as he almost certainly is the best bet to attain his best case.
Sometimes, but it's also often the other way around.
McDavid for example, started out with speed, eight years later he still has it. And he started out without an elite shot. Now he has it and just scored 64 goals.
Both speed and shot can come and go but in my experience, drafting for shot is more dicey. Shot is less likely to follow the age-development curve. Some players have their best shot at 20 and it's worse when they're 23. Some are bad shooters as teenagers and end up with a totally different stick and shot as pros. It's just harder to project. Not that Bedard should have any trouble with it.
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