The gap between Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli / Leo Carlson

[ijuka]

Carlsson & Fantilli both have physical advantages over Michkov (and Bedard for that matter). But in terms of Hockey IQ, Michkov is up there with Bedard, and one could argue better

Disagreed, think Bedard has clearly the best hockey IQ of the bunch.

 

[OKR]

Because of the seasons they just had?

Because how people predict their game to translate?

Because they are projected to be C’s?

Going in to the season Bedard and Michkov were considered close 1st and 2nd picks with a noticeable gap between 2-3 picks, Michkov then followed that by recording the highest scoring season for a draft-eligble player in the KHL ever on a awful team where basically no-one else contributed offensively at all.

And all of sudden he his a wide gap below Fantilli and Carlson because they had good seasons? So they leapfroged Michkov from behind because they had a good seasons, despite Michkov having historically good season against tougher competition as well.

 

[centipede2233]

I made a post in another thread and year by year for a recent 10 yr period how picks 2-4 in every draft year, atleast one of those 3 picks ended up either a bust or underwhelming. Like every year. And I get the feeling this will pertain to this draft, just gotta avoid the land mine

 

[Gnashville]

Why if the draft lottery so freaking late anymore?
It would be nice to see where Bedard goes and how that affects where the others go. Some teams may not want to wait 5 years for Michkov.

 

[BB88]

Going in to the season Bedard and Michkov were considered close 1st and 2nd picks with a noticeable gap between 2-3 picks, Michkov then followed that by recording the highest scoring season for a draft-eligble player in the KHL ever on a awful team where basically no-one else contributed offensively at all.

And all of sudden he his a wide gap below Fantilli and Carlson because they had good seasons? So they leapfroged Michkov from behind because they had a good seasons, despite Michkov having historically good season against tougher competition as well.

You are just completely ignoring what Fantilli and Carlsson have done and what project of becoming.
Also Carlsson is playing against tougher competition this year.

You just don’t trade a top5-8C to any winger in the game.
They impact the game more.

 

[EK47]

Talentwise its
Bedard

Carlsson/Michkov
Fantilli

Carlsson is the best swedish D-1 prospect I’ve seen by a margin.

 

[bebl]

People forget that two seasons ago Michkov outscored Bedard in U18 WC? He should be easily 2nd ranked.

 

[BB88]

People forget that two seasons ago Michkov outscored Bedard in U18 WC? He should be easily 2nd ranked.

You know a lot can happen in 2 years?

He should be the easy #4 but not higher

 

[HanSolo]

People forget that two seasons ago Michkov outscored Bedard in U18 WC? He should be easily 2nd ranked.

13 players outscored Brady Tkachuk at the same tournament. Those 13 players have not come anywhere close to 83 points in the NHL.

Tyson Jost outscored Clayton Keller and Elias Pettersson and has only ever mustered a high of 26 points in an NHL season.

I can go on and on with non nhl players who outscored NHL stars at the U18s. It is absolutely not the end all, be all.

 

[bebl]

13 players outscored Brady Tkachuk at the same tournament. Those 13 players have not come anywhere close to 83 points in the NHL.

Tyson Jost outscored Clayton Keller and Elias Pettersson and has only ever mustered a high of 26 points in an NHL season.

I can go on and on with non nhl players who outscored NHL stars at the U18s. It is absolutely not the end all, be all.

Nice but you talk like Michkov has been disappointment. My point was that Michkov was once touted as best player on this draft and his trajectory is not changed. Bedard has probably improved more but I just don't see others have too. He failed expectations just cause he is russian and he is not been in national tournaments?(where he btw was always among best) I understand that he might me ranked 4th by russian factory but that doesn't mean he is 4th best player.

 

[HanSolo]

Nice but you talk like Michkov has been disappointment. My point was that Michkov was once touted as best player on this draft and his trajectory is not changed. Bedard has probably improved more but I just don't see others have too. He failed expectations just cause he is russian and he is not been in national tournaments?(where he btw was always among best) I understand that he might me ranked 4th by russian factory but that doesn't mean he is 4th best player.

What did I say about Michkov? I said that using U18 performance as a dispositive measurement is a silly premise.

If Tyson Jost outscoring Pettersson and Keller isn't evidence that Jost was or is a better player, then the fact that Michkov had 2 more points than Bedard at the tournament isn't the end all, be all of anything.

The poster I quoted is taking a small sample of a single tournament that happened two years ago and is saying that those 7 games should trump any developments in the progression of the other relevant players in this thread. There's a lot more to it than that.

 

[BB88]

Nice but you talk like Michkov has been disappointment. My point was that Michkov was once touted as best player on this draft and his trajectory is not changed. Bedard has probably improved more but I just don't see others have too. He failed expectations just cause he is russian and he is not been in national tournaments?(where he btw was always among best) I understand that he might me ranked 4th by russian factory but that doesn't mean he is 4th best player.

I’d say it has.
His skating hasn’t changed that much and for a smaller forward it’s really important.

As a pro player Carlsson is definitely ahead of Michkov and has overtaken him as a pro level player so can’t agree with your assesment

 

[bebl]

What did I say about Michkov? I said that using U18 performance as a dispositive measurement is a silly premise.

If Tyson Jost outscoring Pettersson and Keller isn't evidence that Jost was or is a better player, then the fact that Michkov had 2 more points than Bedard at the tournament isn't the end all, be all of anything.

I pointed that people forgot how good Michkov was when majority of us were able to see him and you brought some stats history shit from U18 history which is basicly "your opinion is shit"

I’d say it has.
His skating hasn’t changed that much and for a smaller forward it’s really important.

As a pro player Carlsson is definitely ahead of Michkov and has overtaken him as a pro level player so can’t agree with your assesment

Thanks for reasonable answer. I like Carlsson too he is 3th for me.

 

[Hanji]

I’d say it has.
His skating hasn’t changed that much and for a smaller forward it’s really important.

As a pro player Carlsson is definitely ahead of Michkov and has overtaken him as a pro level player so can’t agree with your assesment

Carlsson is currently not a better pro player than Michkov; though we agree he's overtaken him for NHL draft purposes. Carlsson is the safer pick.
Michkov's ceiling is considerably higher than Carlsson or Fantilli's, but his floor is conversely lower. Add in his contract issues and I think Michkov will go 4.

 

[BB88]

Carlsson is currently not a better pro player than Michkov; though we agree he's overtaken him for NHL draft purposes. Carlsson is the safer pick.
Michkov's ceiling is considerably higher than Carlsson or Fantilli's, but his floor is conversely lower. Add in his contract issues and I think Michkov will go 4.

I mean he absolutely is.

Carlsson just has an awesome SHL playoff run and is getting reps with mens national team.

While Michkoh was still more in survival mode.

No question Carlsson has a bigger impact at the pro level

 

[HanSolo]

I pointed that people forgot how good Michkov was when majority of us were able to see him and you brought some stats history shit from U18 history which is basicly "your opinion is shit"


Thanks for reasonable answer. I like Carlsson too he is 3th for me.

You're trying to settle the debate with results from a 2021 tournament. I'm telling you that's not enough. Most people don't need that factoid because Michkov had pretty much the best KHL season by a 18 year old draft eligible player ever. That to me is a lot more compelling than a 7 game sample from a while ago.

Edit: and to take it a step further I think if there weren't questions that stem from Michkov's country of origin and KHL contract, he'd be pretty comfortably held up as the second best player available. But that can't be ignored. So a team like Chicago, who has many years of rebuilding ahead of them, can afford to wait on Michkov. A team like Anaheim who is going to be looking to start putting out a competitive roster around their youth core probably can't afford to wait until someone like Trevor Zegras is 26 years old for Michkov to start his rookie season. But that's getting side tracked from the point of the thread.

I think there's plenty of compelling arguments in favor of Michkov being ranked objectively behind Bedard. I don't think the U-18s performance is very compelling.

 

[bebl]

You're trying to settle the debate with results from a 2021 tournament. I'm telling you that's not enough. Most people don't need that factoid because Michkov had pretty much the best KHL season by a 18 year old draft eligible player ever. That to me is a lot more compelling than a 7 game sample from a while ago.

It was just reminder how insine u18 he had two years ago = anyone else not named Bedard can just dream to have those stats even on -1 draft year. Point is and was that Michkov is forgotten.

I don't really get why you are trying to misunderstand everything.

 

[HanSolo]

It was just reminder how insine u18 he had two years ago = anyone else not named Bedard can just dream to have those stats even on -1 draft year. Point is and was that Michkov is forgotten.

I don't really get why you are trying to misunderstand everything.

I'm not trying to misunderstand anything. You presented the point like everyone is ignoring the fact that Michkov outscored Bedard at the U18 and switched it around to use that fact to say that Michkov should be a lock for second overall. All I was saying is there's more considerations at play than that because that fact alone doesn't mean much of anything considering how many non NHL players outpaced current NHL stars. It doesn't mean I think Michkov won't be good enough for the NHL, it means it's a small sample that doesn't prove anything and it's something that happened before this draft class had another year and a half of development.

I also disagree with your primary premise since people haven't "forgotten" Michkov, they're just worried about the situation in Russia and the KHL contract. There's a worry, from what I've noticed, among all the top lottery contenders that there's a chance, no matter how remote, that Michkov might not come to the NHL. Chances of that may be small, but as long as they're greater than zero, there's a worry about burning a draft pick when there are two more elite prospects available to choose from. Then there's some that worry about his size and feel Michkov was "surviving" the KHL. I didn't follow his season so I'm not gonna give an opinion on that, but that's where a lot of people are coming from.

 

[majormajor]

Edit: and to take it a step further I think if there weren't questions that stem from Michkov's country of origin and KHL contract, he'd be pretty comfortably held up as the second best player available.

I think that's probably not true.

The size, skating, skill combination is better with Fantilli and Carlsson. They'd go ahead even if Michkov was Matt Mitchkov from Sudbury.

 

[HanSolo]

I think that's probably not true.

The size, skating, skill combination is better with Fantilli and Carlsson. They'd go ahead even if Michkov was Matt Mitchkov from Sudbury.

Size, sure. Fantilli has the edge in skating and I'd say between him and Carlsson it's probably even. Skill, I think it's a lot closer than the pro Michkov crowd make it out to be as all three prospects seem to have elite hands but I'd put Michkov in a higher tier than Fantilli and Carlsson.

I'm just going off limited footage I've been able to find in anticipation of Anaheim's selection but my takeaway is Michkov is the most naturally skilled all-around, Fantilli has good stick handling and a penchant for making short area passes with angles most kids his age wouldn't consider, but at the same time his tendency to try to carry the play all by himself tends to result in unforced or avoidable errors. Carlsson seems to have good puck handling, good offensive zone IQ and strong vision (I can describe all three this way) but he seems to be the most tentative of the three to use his skills and seems to often be more of the bull fighting for open ice and using his strength to fend off physical pressure in the open ice. Given that he is such a big strong body already, I found myself seeing him be inconsistent with his willingness to use his body along the boards.

End of the day, for me, if I'm judging these guys on ability alone without consideration for extra hockey matters I'd rank Michkov second but I don't think Fantilli and Carlsson are too far off. I think all three have elite upside. Just for me, the team I have a vested interest in is Anaheim and I just think the risk is too high when there's two great guys as options at 2 or 3 where they're guaranteed to draft. But then again, I'm not a pro. I just watched as much footage as I could in my free time from what I could find.

 

[majormajor]

Size, sure. Fantilli has the edge in skating and I'd say between him and Carlsson it's probably even. Skill, I think it's a lot closer than the pro Michkov crowd make it out to be as all three prospects seem to have elite hands but I'd put Michkov in a higher tier than Fantilli and Carlsson.

I'm just going off limited footage I've been able to find in anticipation of Anaheim's selection but my takeaway is Michkov is the most naturally skilled all-around, Fantilli has good stick handling and a penchant for making short area passes with angles most kids his age wouldn't consider, but at the same time his tendency to try to carry the play all by himself tends to result in unforced or avoidable errors. Carlsson seems to have good puck handling, good offensive zone IQ and strong vision (I can describe all three this way) but he seems to be the most tentative of the three to use his skills and seems to often be more of the bull fighting for open ice and using his strength to fend off physical pressure in the open ice. Given that he is such a big strong body already, I found myself seeing him be inconsistent with his willingness to use his body along the boards.

End of the day, for me, if I'm judging these guys on ability alone without consideration for extra hockey matters I'd rank Michkov second but I don't think Fantilli and Carlsson are too far off. I think all three have elite upside. Just for me, the team I have a vested interest in is Anaheim and I just think the risk is too high when there's two great guys as options at 2 or 3 where they're guaranteed to draft. But then again, I'm not a pro. I just watched as much footage as I could in my free time from what I could find.

I'm not any more qualified than you are but I'll tell you that I don't see it.

Michkov is at times like a fountain of low probability offense, shots from distance with plenty of turnovers. Perhaps not as glaring as when Fantilli passes to no one, but there is a steady stream of turnovers.

The biggest problem is just the small and slow combination. He can cherrypick in the neutral zone for a breakaway or rush opportunity (fine with me) but the retreating defenders usually still catch up to him and push him off the puck with ease. A great NHL D like Slavin would have no trouble with Michkov.

Carlsson typically only played 3rd line minutes, in a system where he had to adjust to fit in. Very much the opposite with Michkov who got everything in Sochi built around the way he plays. I think adjusted for minutes Carlsson might have actually had a higher scoring rate. Folks here somehow got the idea that Sochi was a handicap for his production but it's the opposite - just as you wouldn't expect Max Domi to score more from the third line in Dallas than the topline in Chicago, you wouldn't expect Michkov to score more deeper in the lineup of a good team. Playing on a topline on a bad club where everything revolved around him would be the best way for Michkov to take off offensively.

He's never going to get that kind of opportunity in the NHL unless it's with a terrible team and I don't see NHL defenders having much trouble with him 5v5.

 

[HanSolo]

I'm not any more qualified than you are but I'll tell you that I don't see it.

Michkov is at times like a fountain of low probability offense, shots from distance with plenty of turnovers. Perhaps not as glaring as when Fantilli passes to no one, but there is a steady stream of turnovers.

The biggest problem is just the small and slow combination. He can cherrypick in the neutral zone for a breakaway or rush opportunity (fine with me) but the retreating defenders usually still catch up to him and push him off the puck with ease. A great NHL D like Slavin would have no trouble with Michkov.

Carlsson typically only played 3rd line minutes, in a system where he had to adjust to fit in. Very much the opposite with Michkov who got everything in Sochi built around the way he plays. I think adjusted for minutes Carlsson might have actually had a higher scoring rate. Folks here somehow got the idea that Sochi was a handicap for his production but it's the opposite - just as you wouldn't expect Max Domi to score more from the third line in Dallas than the topline in Chicago, you wouldn't expect Michkov to score more deeper in the lineup of a good team. Playing on a topline on a bad club where everything revolved around him would be the best way for Michkov to take off offensively.

He's never going to get that kind of opportunity in the NHL unless it's with a terrible team and I don't see NHL defenders having much trouble with him 5v5.

Fair points until the end. Too early to draw conclusions like that imo. He's still 18 with room to grow and adapt. If he was to jump into the NHL today, then yeah but I'd say you can say that about all three of these guys.

 

[ClarkBolzano]

Stopp this bullshit. Common. Only cause a swede and a canadien ( fantilli) have a very good draft years, you call them already Potential first line Centers in the NHL. Calm down. You cant compare These Guys to Bedard and to Michkov. I dont have to make a Point for Bedard cause He is canadien cause this alone gives him an Advantage compared to Michkov WHO comes from evil Russia. So i speak only for Michkov. He dominated everything possible since early age maybe even more than Bedard. But for you its Not enough. Even If He we're a Mario lemieux Level Talent you still would Put him behind Bedard and May be Fantilli. This is so unfair and simply Not correct but its useless. I really Hope your NHL Team will draft him. When i hear this bullshit the ovi Crosby discussions come to my mind. Crosby was Always the Seconds coming of Jesus Christ and ovi despite His Numbers,Talent, Skill and Goal scoring ability He Had to earn every Bit of Respect.

 

[ClarkBolzano]

No

Talentwise its
Bedard

Carlsson/Michkov
Fantilli

Carlsson is the best swedish D-1 prospect I’ve seen by a margin.

Simply Put No. This is your Wish thinking. Talentweise Michkov is on par with Bedard my friend

 

[Panthaz89]

Nice but you talk like Michkov has been disappointment. My point was that Michkov was once touted as best player on this draft and his trajectory is not changed. Bedard has probably improved more but I just don't see others have too. He failed expectations just cause he is russian and he is not been in national tournaments?(where he btw was always among best) I understand that he might me ranked 4th by russian factory but that doesn't mean he is 4th best player.

He has 3 years of 0 value to a team in the NHL that's basically guaranteed outside of his KHL contract getting voided minimum. Is it that hard to understand? The reason people bring up Bedards WJC is that he flipping blew the doors off everyone else meanwhile you are doing a miniscule point count from years ago.