The First 14

[EspenK]

Most of, if not all,of us are surprised to some extent at the Jackets start.
What are the positives and negatives you see so far and do you htink this team is for real?

My biggest concern has been the number of shots given up. Here is a blurb that mentions this:

Minus-76: Jack Johnson‘s 5-on-5 shot-attempt differential. John Tortorella probably doesn’t want to hear about it, but that’s the worst differential in the NHL. In a related story, the Blue Jackets have not been a good possession team. They’re only 6-4-2 because Sergei Bobrovsky has been excellent in goal (6-4-1, .935) and their special teams have been off-the-charts good. Last night in Boston, the Jackets got badly outshot (32-17), Bobrovsky had an off night, and Columbus lost 5-2.

http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2016/11/11/five-nhl-player-stats-you-may-find-interesting/

Click to read more...

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

The first fourteen are always a practice.

 

[major major]

Last night was a clear outlier in team play, so let's leave that aside.

I'm less concerned by the possession numbers for a couple reasons.

1) By the eye test (will have to check this against data), the number of quality chances against has dropped. JJ looks the best I've ever seen him and is a plus player. Someone ask oilerbear about the high danger chances.

2) The team has been outpossessed mostly after they've established a lead. They've scored a lot of early goals with heavy pressure, and then defended the rest of the game with a more passive style. I hate that approach of defense, but I think it explains a lot of the numbers. Someone can check this but I think the team has been defending leads for a surprisingly large portion of the season's minutes to date.

 

[We Want Ten]

Positive: Better than I thought possible.

Negative: The scoring is putrid. I don't know what our average is, but we need more than 2 goals a game to win. If our PP falters, which it seems to have lately, I'm not convinced we score enough to actually win.

Edit: I looked our GF up, 3.08. Seems not bad until you factor in we had a 10 goal game. Eliminating that game, its only 2.45 GPG.

Also, we have only played 12 games.

 

[EspenK]

Positive: Better than I thought possible.

Negative: The scoring is putrid. I don't know what our average is, but we need more than 2 goals a game to win. If our PP falters, which it seems to have lately, I'm not convinced we score enough to actually win.

Edit: I looked our GF up, 3.08. Seems not bad until you factor in we had a 10 goal game. Eliminating that game, its only 2.45 GPG.

Also, we have only played 12 games.

I'm looking ahead. Don't want the thread to get stale

 

[MAHJ71]

Constantly getting outshot worries me the most.

Sometimes I just wish we would throw more shots on the net as I feel like when Torts has emphasized this in the past - its resulted in an increase in scoring.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

If/when the special teams come back to reality, things could turn around quickly.

 

[MFRONE]

The record after 12 games has far exceeded my expectations. But, it is concerning that they have scored first in 10 of 12 games and have only 6 wins, that has to be better.

 

[We Want Ten]

I'm looking ahead. Don't want the thread to get stale

I thought I had a stroke and forgot how to math when I looked at the record and couldn't get to 14 GP.
Way to be proactive.

 

[EDM]

I am satisfied. But there are obvious improvements that need to be made.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

We do need to improve our shots for/against. However, as long as the shots against aren't from Grade A areas like the slot and we can control the rebounds then it doesn't worry me as much.

Our 5 on 5 offense needs to be better. I don't think our PP will remain in the top 10 let alone number 1 by the end of the season. We need to start scoring more.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

Sometimes I just wish we would throw more shots on the net as I feel like when Torts has emphasized this in the past - its resulted in an increase in scoring.

There is no better playmaker than counter-pressing as Jurgen Klopp put it as it leaves the opponent's deck under confusion. It is a game of chances, not shots.

Worrying side is of course Wennberg and Hartnell, 5vs5 or should I say 2vs1, the two purest indicators for individual-driven meidän peli. Are they given the freedom to contribute without tracking pass chains and penalties or is the focus on utmost individual effort, school boy hockey.

 

[Old Guy]

We do need to improve our shots for/against. However, as long as the shots against aren't from Grade A areas like the slot and we can control the rebounds then it doesn't worry me as much.

Coach Torts makes your point. He is concerned about scoring chances against, not so much just shots. Give this some time. Seth Jones has 50 games in Union Blue. Zack Werenski and Hannikainen have 12 games in this league. Try to project the current play out when we get to mid-February 2017 and beyond.

We need to start scoring more.

10 goals in a game not enough for ya?

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

The first fourteen are always a practice.

Todd Richards? Is that you?

Technically the first 8 are practice. It is called the pre-season. If the first 14 were practice, that would explain the 15 years of sucking we have experienced.

 

[CBJfan4evr]

Little bit different take on the first 14 uhh... 12 games. It's been pretty widely stated that the first 16 games were brutal. Almost all of the games were against teams that made the playoffs last year. The balance of the games were against Western conference teams that have typically given us fits. Expectations were that we were headed for another Todd Richards like start. Much to everyone's surprise that has not been the case. Looking at the current standings makes me ask was the schedule really that tough? Balance of power has definitely shifted to the east. I'd acknowledge a win is a win; but after losing twice to Boston I'm really wondering how we are going to play against the East; which is quickly lining up to be a "murder's row" of opponents. Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/msitkoffNHL/status/797485761511784448/photo/1

 

[major major]

The club has scored first 10 times out of 12.

How much of that is luck and how much of that is play?



The club has been poor in protecting leads (reflected both in the shot stats and the number of blown leads).

How much of that is personnel and how much of it is systems?

 

[WannabeFinn]

5v5 certainly needs some work because the special teams won't be god-tier for long. But wins are wins and I'll take them however they come, even if it means we're outpossessed and outshot on even strength

 

[EspenK]

Little bit different take on the first 14 uhh... 12 games. It's been pretty widely stated that the first 16 games were brutal. Almost all of the games were against teams that made the playoffs last year. The balance of the games were against Western conference teams that have typically given us fits. Expectations were that we were headed for another Todd Richards like start. Much to everyone's surprise that has not been the case. Looking at the current standings makes me ask was the schedule really that tough? Balance of power has definitely shifted to the east. I'd acknowledge a win is a win; but after losing twice to Boston I'm really wondering how we are going to play against the East; which is quickly lining up to be a "murder's row" of opponents. Thoughts?

https://twitter.com/msitkoffNHL/status/797485761511784448/photo/1

It will be interesting to see when the games are against Eastern foes. I think by and large the East teams are faster and that could be an equalizer as we have been the faster team many nights so far. Although I wouldn't call Boston a speedy team. So far this year lots of atypical things happening.

 

[georgiabluejacket]

Of the 14 games we've played, 13 have been against teams currently in the playoffs, with L.A. the only one not. Of the perennial western powerhouses, we've already played the season series vs. Ana, St.L, Dal, & SJ.

After Sunday(WSH) 8 of the following 10 are vs. current "underperforming" non-playoff teams. I hope we'll get some easy points there as that'll mark the 1/3 way point of the season & we should be sitting pretty.......I hope

 

[Cowumbus]

Not convinced yet, win Friday, and I damn well may be.

 

[alphafox]

I like the direction of the team, and think that they are exactly who they are, a bubble playoff team. I think we need another move or two before we are ready to fight with the power house teams for an entire playoff series. We need a significant upgrade to help us keep the puck in the opposing end, ideally this would be a #1 center however it is unlikely that is going to happen, particularly since we are locked into Dubinsky AND have PLD coming next year. Ideally we could trade Dubi+ to open up a space and slot Karlsson in the 3rd C role, however there is no way we are moving that contract unless we sell for cents on the dollar. Ideally we can make a move or two this year to either help us this year and long term or to get our roster closer to the same window.

Trade Candidates in my book:
Murray (Passed by Werenski and Jones, no longer the "foundation of our D", still excellent but no longer immovable)

Hartnell (I think there is friction with Torts, and honestly a trade to a contender could net us a pretty heft price as he still plays at a top 6 level with grit)

Dubi (not happening, however I think his job is done better by a number of players on our team currently and moving him would open up the roster for more of the speedy players we need)

Jenner (I just don't think he has the speed either foot or mental to play the way torts wants, at least not at wing)

 

[major major]

I like the direction of the team, and think that they are exactly who they are, a bubble playoff team. I think we need another move or two before we are ready to fight with the power house teams for an entire playoff series. We need a significant upgrade to help us keep the puck in the opposing end, ideally this would be a #1 center however it is unlikely that is going to happen, particularly since we are locked into Dubinsky AND have PLD coming next year. Ideally we could trade Dubi+ to open up a space and slot Karlsson in the 3rd C role, however there is no way we are moving that contract unless we sell for cents on the dollar. Ideally we can make a move or two this year to either help us this year and long term or to get our roster closer to the same window.

Trade Candidates in my book:
Murray (Passed by Werenski and Jones, no longer the "foundation of our D", still excellent but no longer immovable)

Hartnell (I think there is friction with Torts, and honestly a trade to a contender could net us a pretty heft price as he still plays at a top 6 level with grit)

Dubi (not happening, however I think his job is done better by a number of players on our team currently and moving him would open up the roster for more of the speedy players we need)

Jenner (I just don't think he has the speed either foot or mental to play the way torts wants, at least not at wing)

The one guy I don't get as potential trade material is Hartnell. I suppose if the return is big, but he has produced a big chunk of the team's 5 on 5 scoring despite Torts only giving him limited minutes. I don't see him getting us a return that could match that. I agree that Murray and Jenner are the most likely guys but I'm not sure if there is one player we could get who would make much of a difference in the long possession game.

 

[CarolinaBlueJacket]

I like the direction of the team, and think that they are exactly who they are, a bubble playoff team. I think we need another move or two before we are ready to fight with the power house teams for an entire playoff series. We need a significant upgrade to help us keep the puck in the opposing end, ideally this would be a #1 center however it is unlikely that is going to happen, particularly since we are locked into Dubinsky AND have PLD coming next year. Ideally we could trade Dubi+ to open up a space and slot Karlsson in the 3rd C role, however there is no way we are moving that contract unless we sell for cents on the dollar. Ideally we can make a move or two this year to either help us this year and long term or to get our roster closer to the same window.

Trade Candidates in my book:
Murray (Passed by Werenski and Jones, no longer the "foundation of our D", still excellent but no longer immovable)

Hartnell (I think there is friction with Torts, and honestly a trade to a contender could net us a pretty heft price as he still plays at a top 6 level with grit)

Dubi (not happening, however I think his job is done better by a number of players on our team currently and moving him would open up the roster for more of the speedy players we need)

Jenner (I just don't think he has the speed either foot or mental to play the way torts wants, at least not at wing)

Have you lost your mind?? They have a subpar 15 game streak and you want to throw them out? Way too short sighted. Dubi and Boone are the heart and soul of the team and they will come around.

 

[alphafox]

The one guy I don't get as potential trade material is Hartnell. I suppose if the return is big, but he has produced a big chunk of the team's 5 on 5 scoring despite Torts only giving him limited minutes. I don't see him getting us a return that could match that. I agree that Murray and Jenner are the most likely guys but I'm not sure if there is one player we could get who would make much of a difference in the long possession game.

I don't want to trade Hartnell, however he is getting to the point that his price will be sky high at the trade deadline and we almost certainly will not extend him past when his contract ends. He is still producing at a good pace, and he plays "playoff" hockey so someone might be willing to give up a pick and/or a prospect. I guess bottom line for me is that as good as he is I don't think he fits out window to compete for the cup.

(And honestly we need to start building to deal with the next powerhouse teams in Toronto and the Oilers as they will be the biggest competition for us moving forward, hopefully PLD can give us something to compliment Werenski-Jones on the back end.)

 

[DarkandStormy]

What, no annual Cam trade rumors yet?