Horse Racing: The end of 2022

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Thursday, January 20, 2022

• Canceled: Oaklawn (AR) has canceled Friday's card due to cold weather.
• Chad Brown sent out three horses at two tracks and finished 3 2-0-1.
• Jose Ortiz has decided New York winters aren't that welcoming after all.

​

Aqueduct (New York):

• Trevor McCarthy rode three winners including on board his last three mounts. The past two racing days, he is 9 7-0-0 which is a staggering figure.
• Jose Gomez rode winners on board his first two mounts. The bug rider has seven lifetime wins. He is the lone client to Hall of Fame rider and now agent Angel Cordero since the latter parted ways with John Velazquez and Manny Franco. Agents can generally only have two clients plus an apprentice in some jurisdictions.
• Handle: $4.6 million.

Laurel (MD):

• Track conditions: Sloppy.
• The track: It seemed riders were intent on being in the center of the track. There was a noticeable bias today.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Handle: $5.9 million. This was the lone major track holding turf racing today.
• Junior Alvarado was 5 2-3-0.
• Race 8: Lucci (Tyler Gaffalione/Wesley Ward) won at 2-to-5. The colt is named after former NFL player Mike Lucci who passed away in October. The colt is 3 2-0-0 lifetime and broke his maiden in his debut in May.
• Race 9: Graceful Kitten (Emma Nordin/Amador Sanchez) nearly wired the field under the jockey who rode in the US for the first time. She settled for third at 19-to-1 and paid $10. She is from Sweden.

​

Fair Grounds (Louisiana):

• Track conditions: Off the turf.

 

[Marco 85]

Fairgrounds struggling to fill races.
Mgmt. wants to cut racing days. Horsemen aren’t having it.
Rain is killing their turf racing. Resulting in small dirt fields.

Gulf only scheduling 2 turf races a day.
Getting rained off lately. Will be off Turf on Friday again.
Pouring in Hallandale Thursday night.
Tapeta turned out to be a good decision.

Tampa has only missed 1 day of turf racing due to rain.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Friday, January 21, 2022

Aqueduct (New York):

• Canceled: Cold

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• Samy Camacho rode four winners and finished 6 4-1-0.
• Race 4: Tony Small (Madeline Rowland/Dennis Ward) won and gave the apprentice rider who carries a 10-pound advantage, he fourth lifetime win. She is from Maryland.

​

• Race 7: Napoleonic War (Samy Camacho/Chad Brown) and Signeur (Hector Diaz. Jr./Christophe Clement) debuted to a dead hear. The former is a homebred owned by Peter Brant.

​

• Darien Rodriguez didn't win today but he is 7 4-0-0 in 2022. The Cuban-born trainer splits time between New Jersey and Tampa Bay.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Luis Saez won his first four mounts and finished the day with four victories on seven rides. He is destroying the competition at south Florida. He has 64 wins this meet which is 28 more than his closest challenger.
• Todd Pletcher is 51 21-8-2. His 41% winning clip is emphasized!

Oaklawn (Arkansas):

• Canceled: Cold.

Santa Anita (California):

• Race 7: Armagnac (John Velazquez/Bob Baffert) was sent off the favorite and won the lone MSW race in which the trainer entered today. The colt, who broke his maiden today and was out for the second time, is a son to Quality Road and was purchased for $210,000.

​

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Bletchley Park is making his debut tomorrow at Santa Anita in race 8. He was the sales topper at $2.6 million in last year's Gulfstream sale. Owned by Irish-based heavyweights Magnier, Tabor and Smith.

The colt is sired by former Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist.

Trainer Bob Baffert has three of eight in the race. John Velazquez is 9-for-14 for Baffert this meet.

 

[GKJ]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Louisiana Racing Dates:

• Fair Grounds' 80-day meet ends March 27.
• Louisiana Downs operates January 10 - April 7 for QH and then May 7 into late September for 84 days of TB.
• Delta Downs' TB meet ends March 5 then runs 46 QH dates from April 29 - July 16.
• Evangeline Downs runs April 6 - August 27 for 84 TB dates.

Ohio Racing Dates:

• Mahoning Valley (Youngtown area): 63 dates split from January 1 - April 16 and October 22 - December 31.
• Thistledown (Cleveland area): 100 dates from April 25 - October 13.
• Belterra Park (Cincinnati) runs 93 dates from April 28 - October 6.

Note:

• QH = quarterhorses
• TB = Thoroughbreds

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Tyler Gaffalione has won the first three races at Gulfstream. He has four wins so far.

Laurel is hugging the rail today. Not center of the track which has been in evidence the past few racing days.

Trevor McCarthy is the hottest show in New York. He has four wins today. By count, he has 11 wins the last three racing days and has won 11 of his past 15 mounts including a $46 winner today.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Fairgrounds struggling to fill races.
Mgmt. wants to cut racing days. Horsemen aren’t having it.
Rain is killing their turf racing. Resulting in small dirt fields.

Gulf only scheduling 2 turf races a day.
Getting rained off lately. Will be off Turf on Friday again.
Pouring in Hallandale Thursday night.
Tapeta turned out to be a good decision.

Tampa has only missed 1 day of turf racing due to rain.

How has the Tapeta been favoring? Closers in the center of the track from what I have seen.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Saturday, January 22, 2022

• Todd Pletcher sent horses out at three tracks -- Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Gulfstream -- and won at each. He ended his day 6 3-1-1.
• Steve Asmussen is less than 400 wins from becoming the first trainer in North America annals to record 10,000 victories. He could reach that mark this year.

Aqueduct (New York):

• Trevor McCarthy is the hottest show in New York. He rode four winners, all consecutively, including a $46 winner today. The former Maryland jockey didn't find much success in California but upon return to the East coast has been electric this meet. He is on a 16 11-0-1 roll the past three racing days.
• Leading Jockeys:
  • Kendrick Carmouche 26 wins
  • Trevor McCarthy 25 wins
  • Dylan Davis 24 wins.
• Handle: $8.6 million.

Laurel (Maryland):

• Bryson Butterfly-David Mohan teamed twice and won both times. Butterfly is 16 years old and was discovered riding at small venues in the western US as part of the Blackfeet Nation in Montana. The jockey and trainer had a combined 36 lifetime wins but this was a solid day for both. Butterfly is represented by Marty Leonard who has the books of Sheldon Russell and Jevian Toledo two of the top riders in Maryland. Agents can represent two journeymen as well as one bug.
• Race 10: Majestic Frontier (Xavier Perez-John Robb) gave the wily veteran tandem another win. Robb is tied for the meet lead with 5 victories and almost always uses Perez exclusively.
• Statistical Oddity: The first five winners were 2-2-2-2-2. Even astute horse players like gimmicks. In race 6, the 2 was an 8-to-1 morning line and somehow was 1-to-2 early in the betting window. The two finished...second.

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• Samy Camacho had another multiple win day which brought his total to 19 8-5-1 the past three days.
• Handle: $5.5 million being one of the few tracks operating on turf.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Handle: $10.4 million.
• Race 10: Lovely Luvy (Junior Alvarado/Saffie Joseph, Jr.) won the feature race as the second longest shot on the board at 7-to-1.
• Junior Alvarado, fourth at the meet in wins, won the lone two stake races on the card.
  
• Tyler Gaffalione rode winners in the first three races amid a 4-win day. He has the third most wins at the meet.
• Luis Saez did not hit the board on any of his six mounts. Very atypical for him.
• Irad Ortiz, Jr. returned to riding following a minor knee injury.
• Javier Castellano had one winner. The Hall of Fame rider isn't on the level of success he once attained when winning Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey (four straight from 2012-2016) but he is having an under-the-radar good start to 2022 at roughly 23%.

Fair Grounds (Louisiana):

• Florent Geroux rode four winners.
• Joel Rosario-Steve Asmussen teamed 11 times and had three winners.
• Race 9: Ferociously (Joel Rosario-Steve Asmussen) won the $50,000 MSW which was one of the most appealing races today. A son to Violence, the colt was purchased for $410,000 and was among other pricey runners including a $1,000,000 Gunoe (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox) who showed little. But keep an eye on Vinco (Brian Hernandez. Jr./Dallas Stewart), a $1.5 purchase and son to Quality Road making his debut who broke bad but rallied nicely to get up for second.
• Race 13: Mandaloun (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox) was sent off the favorite and won the Grade 3 $150,000 Louisiana Stakes. Midnight Bourbon (Joel Rosario/Steve Asmussen) placed. The dual that was anticipated by almost everyone, happened. Mandaloun could be elevated to the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby if Medina Spirit is eventually DQ'd due to misuse of a medicinal substance by trainer Bob Baffert. Mandaloun, a 4-year-old son to Into Mischief, is 9 6-1-1 lifetime with over $1.7 million earned.

"A good possibility" per Brad Cox that Mandaloun travels to Saudi Arabia for the world's richest horse race ($20 million).

​

• Race 14: Call Me Midnight (James Graham/Keith Desormeaux) won the $200,000 Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes which is a Kentucky Derby prep. The upset winner was sent off at 28-to-1 and closed brilliantly to win by a head over 3-to-2 shot Epicenter (Joel Rosario/Steve Asmussen). Last year, Midnight Bourbon and Mandaloun finished first and third, respectively in this race. They hooked up in the 13th race today.

​

Oaklawn (Arkansas):

• Handle: $6.5 million.
• Ricardo Santana, Jr. rode three winners. Whatever issue he had as a rider -- if any -- that caused his horrible second half to 2021 -- including going 0-for-81 at Keeneland -- could be a memory. He has rebounded so far in 2022.

Sam Houston (Texas):

• Race 1: Something I noticed. The 1A was foaled in Montana in November 2016. Normally, most horses foaled in the US are born in the first five months of the year to take advantage of the age change the following year (every horse turns a year older on January 1). The 6-year-old also has raced just twice. Montana is a state with few foals, too. I don't remember if I have ever seen a November foal in the US.

Sunland Park (New Mexico):

• Race 1: $122.80 winner.
• Race 2: The runner up paid $32.80 and $32.80 at 26-to-1.

Santa Anita (California):

• Race 8: Happy Jack (Abel Cedillo/Doug O'Neill) was the second highest price on the board and won this $67,000 MSW at 24to-1. Bob Baffert had three runners two of whom debuted including a $2.6 million Bletchley Park (John Velazquez/Bob Baffert) who placed for world-famous Ireland-based owners Magnier, Tabor and Smith.
• Abel Cedillo rode three winners.

 

[Marco 85]

How has the Tapeta been favoring? Closers in the center of the track from what I have seen.

I haven’t followed Gulf lately since there are so few turf races.
So I really don’t have a handle on the Tapeta.
When I do look at Gulf. I’m disappointed in the overall quality of races.
Championship meet is a misnomer.

Can’t wait until Keeneland.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

I haven’t followed Gulf lately since there are so few turf races.
So I really don’t have a handle on the Tapeta.
When I do look at Gulf. I’m disappointed in the overall quality of races.
Championship meet is a misnomer.

Can’t wait until Keeneland.

Oaklawn has put a dent into the Gulfstream meet. Besides the weather, the obvious attractions to Gulf were purses and turf. With the reduction of turf racing, that left purses and weather. While south Florida is nearly incomparable on the east coast this time of year, purses are challenged by Oaklawn. That track added weeks to its meet though generally limited to weekend racing and because of that can offer higher purses.

I think the Tapeta has affected some handles at Gulf even though horsemen and track management may prefer the option.

Yes, Keeneland is pristine in the eyes of many and that is understandable being the heart of racing country. I also enjoy what NYRA mostly offers, the deep fields of Laurel, the chaos of Oaklawn and if needed what Santa Anita offers including the young prospects.

Racing is in good shape and the myriad of options is one of the appealing aspects.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Sunday, January 23, 2022

• Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher may be the top two east coast trainers of the past few years. This year, they have near identical numbers:

Trainer	Starts	Starters	1st	2nd	3rd	Pct%	PCT% ITM
Chad Brown	46	45	15	9	4	33%	61%
Todd Pletcher	46	45	15	11	3	33%	64%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Aqueduct (New York):

• Dylan Davis was nearly flawless today with four winners. He took the lead at the meet with 28 victories.
• Trevor McCarthy had one winner though it is impossible to maintain the phenomenal rate of the past three dates.

Laurel (Maryland):

• Race 1: Qpidscarizmatkqtee (Victor Carrasco/Michael Trombetta) debuted to a win at 5-1. The odd spelling of the Pennsylvania-bred, sired by Cupid, had the maximum allowed 18 letters but is actually pronounced Cupid's Charismatic Cutie.
• Victor Carrasco was in a zone today riding three winners on board four starters. Carrasco won the 2013 Eclipse Award for Outstanding Apprentice in North America, one of many to come from Maryland to win that award.
• Brittany Russell's express train was back on the rails after a little slump. She won with both starters.
• Review Show:

​

Tampa Bay (Florida):

• Race 9: Skippy's Strike (Rocco Bowen/Kerri Raven) topped a $1 tri that paid over $1,800 with 20-1, 27-1 and 39-1 shots. Raven trains mostly in the western part of the continent including Arizona and British Columbia. She hails from Ontario, Canada.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Handle: Over $8 million.

Fair Grounds (Louisiana):

• Race 6: Sin City Gal (Jareth Loveberry/Tanner Tracy) was the longest shot in the field of 10 won at 47-to-1. The winning filly was bought for $170,000 and debuted today. Tracy's dad was a trainer and passed at a young age in 2020. The trainer today won for the first time in 2022. He is Midwest-based, Iowa and Illinois among other spots.

Oaklawn (Arkansas):

• David Cohen rode winners with his first three mounts.
• Handle: Exceeded $5 million.

Santa Anita (California):

• Race 8: Distractedprincess (John Velazquez/Bob Baffert), bought for $385,000 in 2019, was a 1-to-5 morning line and won for fun. She is now 2 2-0-0 lifetime and debuted to a win in December.

​

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

OAKLAWN (Hot Springs, AR)

• Southwest Stakes: Kentucky Derby prep worth 10 points to the winner.
• Saturday, January 29, 2022.

TV coverage on TVG (horse racing channel) and Fox Sports 2 (12:30-6:30 pm ET)

Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post
Race 1	$43,000	Starter Allowance	6 Furlongs	Dirt	8	12:02 PM CT
Race 2	$32,000	Claiming	6 Furlongs	Dirt	13	12:32 PM CT
Race 3	$26,000	Starter Allowance	6 Furlongs	Dirt	9	1:02 PM CT
Race 4	$200,000	Martha Washington S.	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	6	1:32 PM CT
Race 5	$84,000	Maiden Special Weight	6 Furlongs	Dirt	13	2:02 PM CT
Race 6	$43,000	Starter Allowance	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	13	2:36 PM CT
Race 7	$84,000	Maiden Special Weight	6 Furlongs	Dirt	10	3:10 PM CT
Race 8	$100,000	Allowance	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	10	3:42 PM CT
Race 9	$750,000	Southwest S.	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	12	4:22 PM CT
Race 10	$150,000	King Cotton S.	6 Furlongs	Dirt	9	4:55 PM CT
Race 11	$84,000	Maiden Special Weight	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	13	5:26 PM CT

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Sam Houston (TX) has a solid card on Sunday:

Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post
Race 1	$36,000	Maiden Special Weight	7 Furlongs	Dirt	7	1:45 PM CT
Race 2	$37,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	6 Furlongs	Dirt	10	2:13 PM CT
Race 3	$36,000	Maiden Special Weight	6 Furlongs	Dirt	12	2:42 PM CT
Race 4	$37,000	Allowance	6 Furlongs	Dirt	13	3:14 PM CT
Race 5	$100,000	Pulse Power Turf Sprint S.	5 Furlongs	Turf	8	3:53 PM CT
Race 6	$200,000	Bob Bork Texas Turf Mile S.	1 Mile	Turf	11	4:23 PM CT
Race 7	$400,000	Houston Ladies Classic S.	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	7	4:53 PM CT
Race 8	$200,000	John B. Connally Turf Cup S.	1 1/2 Miles	Turf	14	5:23 PM CT
Race 9	$75,000	Stonerside Sprint S.	6 Furlongs	Dirt	12	5:53 PM CT
Race 10	$75,000	Jersey Lilly Turf S.	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	14	6:23 PM CT
Race 11	$37,000	Allowance	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	12	6:52 PM CT

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Knicks Go was named Longines World's Best Race Horse for 2021 today (Jan. 25). He is the first US-based horse to win the title since Arrogate in 2017.

Knicks Go will likely retire following Saturday's $3 million Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream.

 

[GKJ]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The 2022 Pegasus World Cup will take place on Saturday, January 29 from 11:30 am ET until roughly 6 p.m. ET. The race will be revealed Tuesday at 1:30 pm ET.

• TV: TVG for all-day coverage of most major race tracks.
• Network TV: NBC and can be streamed live on NBCSports.com and Peacock from 4:30 pm - 6:00 pm
• Site: Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida.
• Feature race: $3,000,000.

Race #	Purse	Race Type	Distance	Surface	Starters	Est. Post
Race 1	$50,000	Starter Handicap	1 1/8 Miles	All Weather Track	13	11:30 AM ET
Race 2	$60,000	Maiden Special Weight	1 1/16 Miles	Dirt	11	11:59 AM ET
Race 3	$61,000	Allowance Optional Claiming	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	15	12:28 PM ET
Race 4	$60,000	Maiden Special Weight	7 Furlongs	Dirt	12	12:57 PM ET
Race 5	$150,000	La Prevoyante S.	1 1/2 Miles	Turf	9	1:27 PM ET
Race 6	$70,000	Handicap	About 1 Mile 70 Yards	All Weather Track	13	1:57 PM ET
Race 7	$200,000	W. L. McKnight S.	1 1/2 Miles	Turf	15	2:31 PM ET
Race 8	$200,000	Inside Information S.	7 Furlongs	Dirt	10	3:03 PM ET
Race 9	$500,000	TAA Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational S. presented by PEPSI	1 1/16 Miles	Turf	11	3:36 PM ET
Race 10	$150,000	Fred W. Hooper S. presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa	1 Mile	Dirt	9	4:12 PM ET
Race 11	$1,000,000	Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational S. presented by Baccarat	1 1/8 Miles	Turf	12	4:49 PM ET
Race 12	$3,000,000	Pegasus World Cup Invitational S. presented by 1/ST BET	1 1/8 Miles	Dirt	9	5:34 PM ET

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The weather appears to be significant enough for New York that Aqueduct could cancel Saturday. Everything is speculation as of now but depending on the path, that could affect TV for Saturday on Fox Sports 2. The broadcast will air with at least Oaklawn and possible Tampa Bay picking up any slack. NBC and Gulfstream -- the Pegasus World Cup -- will remain unaffected. TVG could see a change in original plans, too.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The Bob Baffert hearing in New York concluded the third day of testimony and the fireworks erupted. NYRA is trying to issue a suspension to Baffert based on what they say is his damaging reputation to hurting horse racing and his violations in other jurisdictions. Baffert's camp is trying to portray him, in so many words, clean in New York and therefore being unfairly targeted when other trainers have been suspended elsewhere but not reciprocal by NYRA. New York is claiming that Baffert is a separate entity considering his powerhouse name.

One person on the stand was grilled by NYRA's attorney defended himself against one allegation unrelated to Baffert by exclaiming "Are you calling me a liar!?" NYRA is using claims by handicappers who want refunds or payouts to among other bets on their website that if the Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit is removed from the 2020 victory and Mandaloun, the runner up, is elevated, that bettors holding those tickets should be rewarded. Most horse players are frustrated when they hold a losing ticket and then see purse money distributed to their horse in a rare post-official change as would happen in this case; however, it is common knowledge that the bettor does not get to collect once the race is termed "official."

The hearings have been contentious. This would make for a good courtroom drama series. Much on the line and there are tentacles with the medication violation ruling yet to be made, the ongoing situation inside Kentucky with the 2020 Derby winner and of course Churchill Downs banning any horse trained by Baffert to its tracks (Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds and others).

To date, I see Baffert's camp as holding the edge but the rulings are expected to go until the end of the week before a summary is issued.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

In New York...

Bob Baffert took the stand today in his defense against a potential suspension by NYRA. This case is especially riveting. In so many words, NYRA is claiming Baffert's reputation is hurting horse racing. Even though Baffert has done nothing wrong within NY, NYRA is claiming the sport is being sullied based on Baffert's misdeeds and other issues -- elsewhere and does not want the trainer to enter horses at any of three NYRA tracks. Baffert's camp is claiming he is being punished without doing anything in violation of New York rules. Even trainers I know are on various sides of this matter. Not so much in defense of Baffert but in saying universal rules should be applied which the sport does not operate -- it is state-by-state.

Baffert takes the stand at NYRA hearing

=====================================

Meanwhile in Kentucky:
Baffert confirms Kentucky hearing set for Medina Spirit case

Trainer Bob Baffert confirmed Thursday that a hearing has been scheduled with the Kentucky Horse Commission on Feb. 7 to hear Medina Spirit’s Kentucky Derby betamethasone case. The confirmation came during the trainer’s hearing to help determine whether he will be suspended by the New York Racing Association.

The KHRC did not immediately respond to a request for confirmation by Horse Racing Nation.
The confirmation from Baffert came when he was asked a question by NYRA attorney Henry Greenberg during a hearing in New York. The trainer said he was notified of the date from Clark Brewster, one of the trainer’s attorneys.​

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Friday, January 27, 2022

• Turf: As far as I could tell, the lone track in America to have turf racing was Turf Paradise (AZ). It was off in at least Fair Grounds (LA) and Gulfstream (FL) in a light day of racing.

Aqueduct (New York):

• Race 6 Mucho Sunshine (Luis Rodriguez Castro/Lolita Shivmangal) won at 50-to-1. The bomber must have been a big surprise to connections because following the race the winner was walked excessively in circles awaiting staffers, perhaps extended family members of the owner or trainer, to get in place for the photo.
• Leading Jockeys This Meet: Dylan Davis (29), Trevor McCarthy (28) and Kendrick Carmouche (26). The meet goes into late March.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Race 8: Dimenna (Luis Saez/Mohammad Moubarak) finished third and was the trainer's first starter in the US since 2007. He moved his stable to England and overseas from what I recall. He was once a mainstay in south Florida.
• Race 2: Kitten Street (Gage Holmes/Gerald Brooks) gave the apprentice rider her first victory. She was doused with the usual celebratory tradition following her first winning ride.

​

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

MONMOUTH PARK TO ROLL OUT FIXED-ODDS WAGERING
Monmouth Park to roll out fixed-odds wagering * The Racing Biz

Monmouth Park will launch fixed-odds wagering on Thoroughbred racing in New Jersey in March, track CEO Dennis Drazin said in a Jan. 24 “open letter” to industry stakeholders. It will be offered in March at the track itself and then, “prior to Monmouth’s live racing start on May 7,” fixed odds wagering will be available online through five licensed sportsbooks in the state.​

 

[Marco 85]

The weather appears to be significant enough for New York that Aqueduct could cancel Saturday. Everything is speculation as of now but depending on the path, that could affect TV for Saturday on Fox Sports 2. The broadcast will air with at least Oaklawn and possible Tampa Bay picking up any slack. NBC and Gulfstream -- the Pegasus World Cup -- will remain unaffected. TVG could see a change in original plans, too.

The weather will be in the low 60’s Saturday and windy on Saturday in Florida. Mucho frio!

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

@Marco 85

Tapeta by post positions... For instance:

Tapeta - 5 furlongs
When looking at post positions and biases, it is not that often that a bias is this clear and pronounced. Simply put, horses from the first three posts are at a disadvantage at this short distance. Note that post positions 4-5-6 are winning at 18, 14 and 15 percent, which are nearly double the inside posts winning at 7, 9 and 11 percent.
The HRN impact numbers show how posts 4-6 are still a good bet and are outperforming bettor expectations. In contrast, the inside three posts have been bad bets.

Posts 7 and 8 are a little less conclusive. Post 7 is only winning at 10 percent, but post 8 jumps to 23 percent although that is on a smaller sample of only 30 races. The clear line seems to be between posts 3 and 4: the inside three posts are bad; post 4 and out are pretty good.

Tapeta - 1 mile 70 yards
Looking at routes on Tapeta, the more commonly run distance is at 1 mile and 70 yards. Here the picture is less clear. Starting from the inside, we see that the rail is winning at 11 percent, which is significantly less than posts 2 and 3 at 15 and 16 percent. Then post 4 takes a significant drop to 6 percent, but right next door post 5 is winning more than three times that. In fact, post 5 is the best post to date, winning at 20 percent for a strong impact number of plus-53 percent.

Playing Gulfstream's Tapeta: Best and worst post positions

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

The weather will be in the low 60’s Saturday and windy on Saturday in Florida. Mucho frio!

I am sticking with Life Is Good.