Horse Racing: The end of 2022

[Marco 85]

@Marco 85

Tapeta by post positions... For instance:

Tapeta - 5 furlongs
When looking at post positions and biases, it is not that often that a bias is this clear and pronounced. Simply put, horses from the first three posts are at a disadvantage at this short distance. Note that post positions 4-5-6 are winning at 18, 14 and 15 percent, which are nearly double the inside posts winning at 7, 9 and 11 percent.
The HRN impact numbers show how posts 4-6 are still a good bet and are outperforming bettor expectations. In contrast, the inside three posts have been bad bets.

Posts 7 and 8 are a little less conclusive. Post 7 is only winning at 10 percent, but post 8 jumps to 23 percent although that is on a smaller sample of only 30 races. The clear line seems to be between posts 3 and 4: the inside three posts are bad; post 4 and out are pretty good.

Tapeta - 1 mile 70 yards
Looking at routes on Tapeta, the more commonly run distance is at 1 mile and 70 yards. Here the picture is less clear. Starting from the inside, we see that the rail is winning at 11 percent, which is significantly less than posts 2 and 3 at 15 and 16 percent. Then post 4 takes a significant drop to 6 percent, but right next door post 5 is winning more than three times that. In fact, post 5 is the best post to date, winning at 20 percent for a strong impact number of plus-53 percent.

Playing Gulfstream's Tapeta: Best and worst post positions

Thanks for the information on the Tapeta.
I had heard that the rail in the Tapeta sprints was not the place to be.
Your information confirms it.

 

[Marco 85]

I am sticking with Life Is Good.

I’m really looking forward to the next few days of racing.
While Saturday and Sunday will be cold.
The large fields and turf racing will make me brave the cold and
crazy crowds.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Thanks for the information on the Tapeta.
I had heard that the rail in the Tapeta sprints was not the place to be.
Your information confirms it.

I have a friend who knows some insiders at Gulf. He was there within the week and almost universal is the appeal of the Tapeta. I do think it has dented the handle with handicappers being unsure -- not to the degree of whipless Monmouth (NJ) last year -- but still enough,

The handle Saturday will be a huge indicator to the appeal of the meet especially if Aqueduct (NY) cancels.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

New York


The fifth and final day of NYRA vs. Bob Baffert today.

NYRA Vs. Baffert Hearing Concludes; Several Steps Remain Before A Decision - Horse Racing News | Paulick Report

NYRA's attorney henry Greenberg:

“He's got a playbook,” said Greenberg. “…Misstate facts, blame others, and avoid responsibility.
“Amongst the Derbies he has won is the Excuse Derby.”​

Baffert's attorney Craig Robertson:

“That's what this case is all about,” he said. “Make no mistake about it, Your Honor. This case is about the Kentucky Derby and nothing else.”
“What are they so upset about?” said Robertson. “It comes down to a press conference and three interviews … A man wearing his heart on his sleeve, and now they want to crucify him for it.”​

--------------------------
The procedures handbook set out by NYRA indicates that following the conclusion of the hearing, Sherwood will issue a hearing report which will be disseminated to both sides' attorneys and a panel of people appointed by NYRA's president. From there, both sides have one week to submit additional evidence or disagreements with the contents of the report. The panel will review Sherwood's report and any additional materials filed, and will “have the discretion to adopt, modify or reject any or all of the hearing officer's report, including, but not limited to, the appropriate disposition of the proceeding.”

There are ten days allocated for that review process, after which the panel will issue a final decision which is not appealable within NYRA's oversight.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

When I got the Form today, among the last things I thought I would read was an article about Mike Luzzi. Woo, Forever 27.

Luzzi is weather-beaten but he will always be a personal favorite.

As far as jockey Mike Luzzi is concerned, 52 is the new 27

Luzzi won the Eclipse Award as leading apprentice in 1989. Included his 3,500-plus victories are 73 graded stakes triumphs. He has battled back from injuries time and again. The most recent injury occurred last June when he broke his ankle in a freak accident behind the gate at Belmont Park. He missed three months. In 2014, he suffered a fractured pelvis and broken leg, but he came back 10 months later.

“Every injury you get there’s somebody who says, ‘Are you going to retire?’ ” Luzzi said. “Every time I had gotten hurt, the only thing in my mind was to get back. I never thought about retiring.”
Luzzi said if one adds up all the time he’s missed due to injury, it’s about five years. But he says he’s as healthy now as he’s ever been and feels great.

“When I go in the gate and put the goggles down, I feel like I’m 27,” Luzzi said.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Some news stories from today:

• Kent Desormeaux was arrested (domestic issue) and will be off his mounts Saturday which included an opportunity on the big stage at the Pegasus. Desormeaux has a history of conflict. He has been given many chances. Jose Ortiz picked up the mount in the $3 million race.
• Wesley Ward was suspended by Kentucky for 15 days for a diabetic drug used otherwise by humans but in one of his winners at Churchill Downs. Ward has a strong reputation in training so this one was a surprise. His defense is the ingredient was a cause of environmental contamination and that his "veterinarian doesn't even have it on her truck." His recently clean record helped him in the short suspension.
• Sophie Doyle, who has not ridden since mid-December, is pregnant and will be on break. Her fiancee is trainer Chris Davis.
• Alphabet Soup, the 1996 Breeders' Cup Classic winner by a nose at 19-to-1, has passed at age 31. "Alphabet Soup has scored a shocking upset," again one of Tom Durkin's most electrifying calls.

​

 

[Orr Fourever]

Alphabet Soup, the 1996 Breeders' Cup Classic winner by a nose at 19-to-1, has passed at age 31. "Alphabet Soup has scored a shocking upset," again one of Tom Durkin's most electrifying calls.

I had 20 on mount sassafras....

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

I had 20 on mount sassafras....

Ugh. Nightmarish results stay with us forever.

"And here comes the Captain..." from the 1997 Kentucky Derby for me.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Mahoning Valley (OH) and Charles Town (WV) have joined Aqueduct (NY) in canceling racing today due to weather-related/blizzard conditions.

Nashville (trained by Steve Asmussen) is running in the 10th race at Oaklawn today, the $150,000 King Cotton. Nashville caught the eyes of many in 2020 by winning his first three starts -- his first two by a combined 20 lengths. He ran just once in 2021 and is 5 3-0-1 lifetime.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Friday, January 29, 2022

Aqueduct (New York):

• Juan Vazquez, who went 4-for-4 one day earlier at the meet, won with both his starters. The trainer is 27 11-3-2 (41%) this meet. Extraordinary numbers even if winter racing at New York.
• Race 6: Tale of Mist (Samuel Camacho, Jr./Randi Persaud), a 9-year-old out for the 69th time, won. Horses that age rarely run, never mind win, at NYRA tracks.

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Handle: $7.7 million.

Oaklawn (Arkansas):

• Handle: Exceeded $5 million.

Santa Anita:

• Handle: Over $6 million on what was a less-than-average card.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

TV today besides TVG:

• Fox Sports 2 from 12:30 pm ET - 6:30 pm ET (Oaklawn especially).
• NBC from 4:30 pm - 6:00 pm ET (Gulfstream -- two races including the $3 million Pegasus).

TVG will show thoroughbred racing from these US tracks:

Gulfstream Park	1 - 12	11:33 AM
Laurel Park	1 - 3, 6 - 7	12:11 PM
Tampa Bay Downs	1 - 3	12:15 PM
Oaklawn Park	1 - 11	1:02 PM
Santa Anita	1 - 9	3:30 PM
Turfway Park	1 - 8	6:15 PM
Fair Grounds	8 - 9	6:22 PM
Golden Gate Fields	6 - 9	6:37 PM
Meadowlands	5 - 13	7:42 PM
Sam Houston Race Park	2 - 9	8:25 PM
Los Alamitos	1 - 8	9:00 PM

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Saturday, January 29, 2022 -- PART ONE

Aqueduct (New York):

• Canceled. The track also canceled Sunday's card due to extreme weather conditions.

Laurel (Maryland):

• Card: Six of the 10 races held purses $75,000 or more. A big day for Maryland interests.
• Race 5: The mother of all bombs! Well, in this case for the $1 superfecta which returned over $87,000. That could be the biggest in North America this young year. The ticket was achieved by 6-to-1, 10-to-1, 64-to-1 and 58-to-1.
• Race 6: Witty (Carol Cedeno/McLane Hendriks) won the $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes. Named for the horse that is undoubtedly one of the greatest of all-time, the honored had a record that most horse people can recognize instantly: 30 26-1-1 and ended his career with 11 straight wins. Hendriks, the winning trainer of this race who is based at Parx, is in his first year with a license. He is a former steeplechase rider.

​

• Race 8: The $1 superfecta returned $10,000+ in the $100,000 What A Summer Stakes.
• Race 9: Wondrwherecraigis (Jevian Toledo/Brittany Russell) won the $100,000 Fireplug Stakes by three lengths at 3-to-5.

​

• Bryson Butterfly, 16 years of age, won twice today and has recoded wins on five of his past 13 mounts.

Oaklawn (Arkansas):

• Race 4: Secret Oath (Luis Contreras/Wayne Lukas) demolished the field by 7+ lengths in winning the $200,000 Martha Washington Stakes. The 86-year-old Hall of Fame trainer has earned over $284 million in his lifetime.
• Race 9: Newgrange (John Velazquez/Bob Baffert) won the $750,000 Grade 3 Southwest Stakes which is a Kentucky Derby prep. Normally the winner receives 10 points towards entry into the Derby but since Baffert is suspended from all Churchill Downs tracks, any horse he runs will not get the necessary points for entry.

​

• Race 10: Bob's Edge (Luis Contreras/Larry Jones) won the $150,000 King Cotton Stakes. Anytime Jones wins, I feel obliged to mention it. A personal favorite. Nashville (Florent Geroux/Steve Asmussen) was sent off the favorite but weakened and finished a poor seventh.

Santa Anita (California):

• Race 4: Forbidden Kingdom (Juan Hernandez/Richard Mandella) won the $200,000 Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. The 3-year-old son to American Pharoah was purchased for $300,000 in 2020. The field of five featured three from the barn of Bob Baffert.
• Race 7: Canoodling (Roimes Chirinos/Mike Puype) wired the field at 22-to-1 and won the $100,000 Grade 3 Megahertz Stakes. The jockey got perhaps his biggest career win. He has his tack in various spots in the US from Suffolk Downs in Massachusetts to Sunland in New Mexico.
• Race 8: Essential Wager (Abel Cedillo/Bob Baffert) won the $200,000 Grade 3 Palos Verdes Stakes. Cezanne (Flavien Prat/Bob Baffert) finished third as the favorite.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Saturday, January 29, 2022 -- PART TWO

Gulfstream (Florida):

• Todd Pletcher entered 10 race and trained four winners. He finished 14 4-3-2.
• Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode three winners.
• Race 3: Swing Shift (Irad Ortiz, Jr./Todd Pletcher) debuted to victory. Pletcher can do little wrong this meet.

​

• Race 4: Beautiful Loser (Joel Rosario/Christophe Clement) won the $150,000 Grade 3 La Prevoyante Stakes by a neck over stablemate Sorrel (Irad Ortiz, Jr./Christophe Clement). Four horses across the wire.

​

• Race 8 Just One Time (Joel Rosario/Brad Cox) won the Grade 2 $200,000 Inside Information Stakes.
• Race 9: Regal Glory (Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown) won the Grade 3 $500,000 Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Stakes as the favorite at 4-to-5.
• Race 10: Speaker's Corner (Junior Alvarado/Bill Mott) won the Grade 3 $150,000 Fred W. Hooper Stakes.
• Race 11: Colonel Liam (Irad Ortiz. Jr./Todd Pletcher) won the Grade I $1,000,000 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. Colonel Liam won this race last year.
• Race 12: Life Is Good (Irad Ortiz, Jr./Todd Pletcher) won the $3,000,000 Pegasus World Cup. It was the second win for the jockey and first for the trainer in the six years of the event. Life Is Good is 7 6-1-0 lifetime.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Todd Pletcher's barn is scorching.

 

[GKJ]

Ja Rule, handicapper

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

^ NBC?

I am watching the Gulfstream feed from the track's website.

 

[GKJ]

This race was over early

^ NBC?

I am watching the Gulfstream feed from the track's website.

Yeah, they found him and got a camera on him

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Life Is Good is a monster. Knicks Go was named Horse of the Year internationally for 2021 earlier this week but was no match. Life Is Good is so good that one horseman told me a few days he thinks this horse is another Spectacular Bid.

Todd Pletcher is the hottest thing in Florida. He is sizzling, burning up the landscape.

Todd Pletcher -- 4 win day on the second biggest day of the year for Gulfstream.

 

[GKJ]

There wasn't even an actual challenge to Life is Good. Knicks Go didn't have any early speed, and you can't let a quality horse like that loose on the lead. And he was real loose, he was like in the 5-path.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

There wasn't even an actual challenge to Life is Good. Knicks Go didn't have any early speed, and you can't let a quality horse like that loose on the lead. And he was real loose, he was like in the 5-path.

The rail killed Knicks Go. He also had never seen a horse challenge him. It was setup as a different type of race for him. Life Is Good is something extraordinary. I won't say Bid-like but it is all systems go. From Baffert's barn to Pletcher's stable.

I am not sure if NBC showed the Irad Ortiz, Jr. interview but it seemed to me he either said "Best horse I have sat on (ridden)..." or "on dirt (vs. turf)." Either way, a powerful statement.

Update:

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Newgrange (Velazquez/Baffert) won the Southwest Stakes, a $750,000 Kentucky Derby prep at Oaklawn.

 

[Marco 85]

@MiamiScreamingEagles

Fairgrounds has been carding 3 and 4 year old on the turf since the start of the year.

it was only a lone 3 year in a race until Friday’s second race.
10 horse field with 5 three year olds.

Not 1 three year old has finished first or second.

What a disadvantage it is this for a 3 year
to be running against older at this time of year.

Really shows what the horse shortage has done to Fairgrounds.

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

@MiamiScreamingEagles

Fairgrounds has been carding 3 and 4 year old on the turf since the start of the year.

it was only a lone 3 year in a race until Friday’s second race.
10 horse field with 5 three year olds.

Not 1 three year old has finished first or second.

What a disadvantage it is this for a 3 year
to be running against older at this time of year.

Really shows what the horse shortage has done to Fairgrounds.

What are the conditions? 3-years-olds and up or limited to 3 and 4 years old?

Either way, a 3-year-old is at a decided disadvantage this time of year.

 

[Marco 85]

What are the conditions? 3-years-olds and up or limited to 3 and 4 years old?

Either way, a 3-year-old is at a decided disadvantage this time of year.

All 4 of Friday’s turf races at Fairgrounds.
Had the same condition.
3 year old and upwards.

5 three year olds in the 2nd race.
1 three year old in the 6th race.

The other 2 races did not have any 3 year olds.