Player Discussion: The Elvis Thread
- Thread starter BalticWarrior
- Start date
-
Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
Iron Balls McGinty
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2005
- 9,595
- 7,752
I’m not a stat nerd but I think it depends on what analytics people look at. I’ve also seen stats that suggest we give up an insane amount of high danger scoring chances. If that is to be believed, we are talking maybe 50/50 on who is at fault here. Even if Elvis stopped a couple more of those high danger chances we are still losing by 2 goals a night.
CBJWerenski8
Rest in Peace Johnny
- Jun 13, 2009
- 44,514
- 27,990
Probably hope he works it out and improve the defense. Korpi will get starts though.
Farmboy Patty
Senior Hockey Analyst
- Nov 2, 2017
- 1,801
- 2,950
Elvis hasn't shown signs to be a legit no 1 on a winning team. His future is prob being a backup with a heavy paycheck with low trading value.
Iron Balls McGinty
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2005
- 9,595
- 7,752
Maybe. But we aren't a winning team. Quite far from it actually if you look at how everyone on the roster plays. They are all trash right now and I still stand by the fact that the person in goal matters very little right now because of how bad the rest of the team is.
Give me a more organized team effort and structure in front and then I'll complain about the goaltending.
This makes a lot of sense, though to be said stylistically Elvis seems like a "scramble to make a save" type of goalie more than a fundamentally solid guy who relies on precise angles and working with a tight defensive structure. Team playing better helps any goalie, but OTOH Elvis playing at his best IMO should/could be a goalie who can bail out defensive lapses by making incredible saves and conversely will let in above average amount of crappy softies when he's not on his game. I'm not sure what my point is, I guess that I would expect better from Elvis and while it might not be fair, when your sv% is routinely in the 85-90 range, you can't just hide behind crappy defense, even if it were mostly true.
Also currently the team is one of the very worst in the league in actual results, but the underlying numbers (the last I saw them) made them seem more like a bit below average and they were at the very bottom in "goals saved above average" so those things would seem to point at goaltending. But advanced stats are far from perfect and the sample size is still quite small, and team is prone to giving up not only high danger scoring chances, but "practically sure goal" type of ones with their defensive lapses and for the stats "high danger" is just "high danger" and they rely on things evening out as sample size grows larger.
Both defense and goaltending need to improve, but to get out of this mess one of them needs to start showing the way towards a better tomorrow. In a way goaltending would be the easy one because that's just one guy who can fix a big part of the problem by just playing better individually and it's a huge difference mentally if you feel like there's a guy behind you who will bail you out vs. any mistake you make ends up being a goal against. The latter is devastating. It's a tall ask but then again it comes with the position and currently Elvis hasn't shown anything that suggest he's up to the task. But he ended the 21-22 season pretty well, it's not like he couldn't be that guy again, but he has just one game out of seven above .900 this season, which is just horrible no matter the team in front of you - we're not talking Italy vs Canada here, these are cap controlled teams operating within the same pool of talent and while the roster might not be good overall, it's not this bad IMO.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
We all expect (maybe not all) better from Elvis. Certainly we should hope for it. Indeed, he has played better in the past than he is playing right now. In spurts, much much better.
I think what we’re learning is that it’s hard to evaluate anyone’s or any group’s play when it all seems so furshlugginer.
Would any group picking up its play help the team? Sure. Would the same also help the play of other groups? Probably.
Ugh.
Last edited:
Iron Balls McGinty
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2005
- 9,595
- 7,752
It's a vicious, repeating cycle that just spins out of control when the goalie freaks out because it is chaos in front of him and then the team freaks out because of a soft goal. He's been hung out to dry just as many times as he's given up a soft goal.
I don't doubt everyone is trying but the lack of team confidence is spiraling out of control. Coaching has not put them in a position to be successful because they all think too much. They are afraid to make mistakes and thinking too much because of this supposed "new system" and now a lack of maturity and guidance makes 1 mistake spiral into 2-3-4 mistakes. This is not a new problem for the CBJ but it is much worse now than it has been.
I don't doubt everyone is trying but the lack of team confidence is spiraling out of control. Coaching has not put them in a position to be successful because they all think too much. They are afraid to make mistakes and thinking too much because of this supposed "new system" and now a lack of maturity and guidance makes 1 mistake spiral into 2-3-4 mistakes. This is not a new problem for the CBJ but it is much worse now than it has been.
Yeah the team seems in a bad shape, hopefully they have a couple good games in Finland and get a bit of a reset.
It's interesting especially compared to last season - you can say many bad things about their play 21-22 and rightly so, but one very important thing they had going for them was they seemed to believe in themselves and their game despite everything, so you could never really count them out even when they were down several goals.
The team hasn't changed that much, I hope they can bounce back, season would be so much more fun to watch if they played like they'll at least be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Games are usually like 4am or something for me and while that is not quite as bad as it sounds because of the hours I work, it still needs a bit of a dedication to watch the games at that hour... something that is a lot easier to come up with for a team that is either going somewhere or very fun to watch for other reasons. It seemed pretty clear last year they weren't making the playoffs, but at least they had a chance and it was just a very entertaining team because you never knew what was going to happen in a game
For the record I have not given up on the season, but they need to turn it around.
It's interesting especially compared to last season - you can say many bad things about their play 21-22 and rightly so, but one very important thing they had going for them was they seemed to believe in themselves and their game despite everything, so you could never really count them out even when they were down several goals.
The team hasn't changed that much, I hope they can bounce back, season would be so much more fun to watch if they played like they'll at least be in the hunt for a playoff spot. Games are usually like 4am or something for me and while that is not quite as bad as it sounds because of the hours I work, it still needs a bit of a dedication to watch the games at that hour... something that is a lot easier to come up with for a team that is either going somewhere or very fun to watch for other reasons. It seemed pretty clear last year they weren't making the playoffs, but at least they had a chance and it was just a very entertaining team because you never knew what was going to happen in a game
For the record I have not given up on the season, but they need to turn it around.
Iron Balls McGinty
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2005
- 9,595
- 7,752
If anyone wants to understand what good team pay in front of a goaltender means, the NJ Devils are in first place right now and here are their goalies stats:
Vitek Vanecek - 2.08 GAA .908 sv%
Mackenzie Blackwood - 2.67 GAA and .879 sv%
Both are below average save percentages but both have a GAA less than 3. Vanecek is basically allowing 2 goals a game with that save percentage. That tells me all I need to know. Lindy Ruff clearly has that team in first place by limiting opposing scoring chances in spite of below average goaltending.
Vitek Vanecek - 2.08 GAA .908 sv%
Mackenzie Blackwood - 2.67 GAA and .879 sv%
Both are below average save percentages but both have a GAA less than 3. Vanecek is basically allowing 2 goals a game with that save percentage. That tells me all I need to know. Lindy Ruff clearly has that team in first place by limiting opposing scoring chances in spite of below average goaltending.
Some might suggest ^^^ is overly simplistic, but to me this is spot on. If you give up 2 goals on average, scoring 3 means a W most nights. This current CBJ team should be able to score 3, even if they play lockdown defensive style. Which is what I cannot understand and as a few better posters than I have pointed out - just what is the defensive system/philosophy now? I get that we are missing some talent at the D position, but I also thought the focus for this season was to tighten up in the defensive zone for both defensemen and forwards....Somebody missed the memo, or the memo was all screwed up... or both.
Hard to follow all these different “numbers”, “metrics” and “analytics”, while trying to also follow what they all apparently show or don’t show, from year to year, or month to month.
All I know is Korpisalo surely hasn’t gotten anywhere near this much of a “poor defense” excuse, along with the fact that he may have BETTER “career numbers” than Elvis in just a couple weeks.
Perception vs Reality
The “numbers” can vary much quicker and much more than a players actual skill or ability.
What cannot be discounted or downplayed is just how bad Elvis’ contract actually is, and what type of “corner” it more than likely has put the team in moving forward.
All I know is Korpisalo surely hasn’t gotten anywhere near this much of a “poor defense” excuse, along with the fact that he may have BETTER “career numbers” than Elvis in just a couple weeks.
Perception vs Reality
The “numbers” can vary much quicker and much more than a players actual skill or ability.
What cannot be discounted or downplayed is just how bad Elvis’ contract actually is, and what type of “corner” it more than likely has put the team in moving forward.
It really isn't hard. Hockey metrics aren't that complex. Nobody uses stuff with super complex formulas and it takes minimal effort to learn the basic stuff you see others cite instead of endlessly whining about how you don't understand them. A lot of stuff is just literally tracked events, no formulas.
It’s more “complex” when you understand that the PLAYERS are on the ice making decisions in milliseconds, causing things to occur, AND NOT THE NUMBERS.
These “metrics” show WHAT has happened, but, they add nothing as to WHY any given thing has occurred.
Not only that, but, there are detailed posts on this site ( different threads/forums) that shows that these “models” or “formulas” that are giving birth to all these “statistics” are BROKEN and NOT ACCURATE.
The “tracked events” aren’t completely accurate, and that’s BEFORE all the BOGUS “numbers” and “values” that are designated for these “events” that they are “measuring”.
Iron Balls McGinty
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2005
- 9,595
- 7,752
Never turns down an opportunity to shoehorn Korpisalo into a conversation.
Up next let's discuss how Korpisalo took a team friendly deal for 1/2 his previous salary as a favor to Jarmo even though the rest of the league was beating down his door to be their starter.
Nevermind the fact the there are goalies with worse contracts out there playing poorly. Philip Grubauer, John Gibson, Jordan Binnington, Bobrovsky. Those are just the ones with more than 3 years left. I didn't even bother to bring up Matt Murray.
Who on earth says numbers predicate events and not vice versa. What are you talking about
Instead of winning team CBJ is really average / middle of the pack what comes to xGA, yet the real goals against are really high. That's both on some defensive collapses (that according to my eye test were more common on the first games and slowly improving), but also heavily on Elvis as right now he just cannot make saves he was used to do at ease.
Also the offence needs to score more and PP needs to be fixed.
In short: this team desperately needs
A) coaching
&
B) goaltending
What I’m taking about is apparently “THE IMPOSSIBLE” has occurred or is occurring with Elvis.
It’s my “complex” way of saying that many of the MATHEMATICIANS around here focus on and seemingly give more “weight” to the “statistics” than what is actually happening on the ice, or even more importantly, ignoring WHY certain things are or aren’t happening on the ice.
1-2 years ago you weren’t allowed to have a negative opinion on Elvis because of the “stats”.
WHAT has changed??
I3LI3
Registered User
Elvis now has a GAA of 4.82 and a save percentage of .863 in 8 appearances this season. sickening.
The positive is that this pace is impossible to maintain. The bad thing is that with a goal per game improvement they would still suck defensively.
Iron Balls McGinty
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2005
- 9,595
- 7,752
And still lose every game by 2 goals instead of 3.
You know what else is sickening?
How many time this team loses track of a player on the ice and they get an easy high danger scoring chance because someone blew their coverage.
I know it has been frustrating for you guys (hello from a Ducks fan, lol), and I know that it doesn't change a thing for now, but Elvis got very emotional after the first game in Finland. He said he's working his ass off, but nothing is happening. So it's not like he doesn't care or he suddenly Space Jammed his skills away or anything.
Here's a video that got deeper into it. It's in Latvian tho, and there are no subtitles to be translated, the only piece in English is from 4:40 with CBJ announcers and Sandis Ozolins.
The essence of the video is pretty much that - Elvis works a lot with the goalie coach (still Manny?). At the beginning of the video a Latvian goalie legend Irbe said that to for Elvis to fix any problems, he has to return to the basics. He's just a personality that cannot stand still, and I think, similar to when he entered the league, he's overthinking stuff. Easy for me to say this ofc.
Just wanted to share this with you guys. I really hope he gets back on track, but certainly, it will take a team effort.
Here's a video that got deeper into it. It's in Latvian tho, and there are no subtitles to be translated, the only piece in English is from 4:40 with CBJ announcers and Sandis Ozolins.
The essence of the video is pretty much that - Elvis works a lot with the goalie coach (still Manny?). At the beginning of the video a Latvian goalie legend Irbe said that to for Elvis to fix any problems, he has to return to the basics. He's just a personality that cannot stand still, and I think, similar to when he entered the league, he's overthinking stuff. Easy for me to say this ofc.
Just wanted to share this with you guys. I really hope he gets back on track, but certainly, it will take a team effort.
I am radically unqualified to make such a judgement, but I can't help but think of something Elvis said last year about how the cannon was giving him flashbacks to Kivlenieks' death. I really think he's still struggling with that loss and how to deal with it and it's impacting his focus. One of the things that was said about him earlier in his career was how well he bounced back after giving up a goal, which is a key trait for a successful goalie. Flash forward to now and he's openly talked already this season about how he's not recovering from giving up goals. I know his wife (and maybe him) have said he's doing fine, but I wonder.
And this is not in any way to say he's grieving "improperly" or whatever. It's just an observation. And for those who will chime in to say they've lost X and been able to go back to work, I have to think there's a difference between a loved one passing away from some natural - even if sudden - illness and watching them die violently in front of you. Based on the story that's been told about how it happened, he's potentially dealing with PTSD and aspects of survivor's guilt. Unfortunately, there's still enough of a stigma re: mental health issues that he may not know how to ask for help or even that it's happening.
And this is not in any way to say he's grieving "improperly" or whatever. It's just an observation. And for those who will chime in to say they've lost X and been able to go back to work, I have to think there's a difference between a loved one passing away from some natural - even if sudden - illness and watching them die violently in front of you. Based on the story that's been told about how it happened, he's potentially dealing with PTSD and aspects of survivor's guilt. Unfortunately, there's still enough of a stigma re: mental health issues that he may not know how to ask for help or even that it's happening.
Iron Balls McGinty
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2005
- 9,595
- 7,752
Speaking of which, have we heard anything from Manny in goaltending? Does he comment on things? I’ve not seen or heard anyone talk about him or too him.
He’s the goalie coach, I’d like to hear his thoughts on the struggles.
He’s the goalie coach, I’d like to hear his thoughts on the struggles.
I3LI3
Registered User
elvis for vejmelka, would you say nah?
.928 save percentage last 4 games while facing the likes of florida (with tkachuk) and dallas. vejmelka has proven he can stand strong against the top teams in the league while facing high volume shots on net. he had a 41 save game against the panthers while giving up one goal. panthers we’re expected to get nearly 6 goals that game. crazy.
.928 save percentage last 4 games while facing the likes of florida (with tkachuk) and dallas. vejmelka has proven he can stand strong against the top teams in the league while facing high volume shots on net. he had a 41 save game against the panthers while giving up one goal. panthers we’re expected to get nearly 6 goals that game. crazy.
