The Curious Case of Mitch Marner discussion thread.

[Canadian Finn]

You one of those guys eh? You don't know any facts but "know" the other guy is wrong

You seem to be a simple guy, so I will keep it simple for you.

2020 Playoffs averaged 2 goals scored per game / 2.4 goals against
2021 Playoffs averaged 2.6 goals scored per game/ 2.0 goals against.

Quantifiably better in the playoffs vs the play in's.

can you plot that in a spreadsheet for dufas.

he needs help.

 

[koyvoo]

Oh believe me I know the legend of Bowman and Yzerman.

But Yzerman never stopped being an elite #1 C.

And if he did make a dramatic mid career change from soft choker to gritty playoffs legend then that only shows us that we shouldn't ditch our super elite talent for some early playoffs failures.

It was never about Yzerman being soft. Trottier was his role model, and he always had that sandpaper element. It was about him focusing on offensive totals at the detriment of a 2 way game. In 1993 we upset them in the 1st round. Look at his point totals/averages before that season and after. One of the links quoted him saying that Bowman turned him into the type of player who didn’t care if he scored a goal for the rest of his career, so long as the team won.

I originally asked, do you see these two having that sort of commitment to a team goal?

I know you don’t. You’ve made it clear you’d rather see and value them at the top of individual categories and no team success rather than won the Stanley Cup with them having moderate individual totals.

Do you see them loving the leafs as much as Yzerman loved the wings, to accept literally producing 40% less individual offense to play the style of hockey that is conducive to success when games matter and your opponent doesn’t let up a single shift?

Perhaps you still do. Bit you also still believe Keefe could be the hit to turn these two fairies into men as well.

 

[Superstar]

In the CBJ series as well. He puts players on the ice to start a shift that are still visibly tired. He’s a terrible coach

Maybe Dubas hired Keefe to run them to the ground since they took so much money during contract negotiations...paying the price to get paid...

 

[Stonehands1990]

Maybe Dubas hired Keefe to run them to the ground since they took so much money during contract negotiations...paying the price to get paid...

Might as well lol. Tired Matthews > all our 900k forwards is probably the logic

 

[nuck]

Maybe Dubas hired Keefe to run them to the ground since they took so much money during contract negotiations...paying the price to get paid...

Yes based on $ per hour the salaries were finally correct. Too bad 10% more usage = 10% less gas in the tank at the end of the season. I feel like Marner's skating is below average for a star forward but his radar and passing are absolutely elite. If you do anything to weaken the skating further (like fatigue from overuse), it changes his ability to control play, draw players out of position, and thread the perfect pass. A tired player loses time and space to make the best plays and that isn't a Mitch thing, its any player. I wish he was a conditioning nut who dreamed of becoming an elite skater but I think he is what he is. Fortunately Keefe just has to look at the minutes that Kane and other small danglers succeeded at and emulate them. It seems obvious in hindsight but I know I was bitching play Willie and JT more, not MM and AM less.

 

[keonsbitterness]

TSN's O'Dog has stated many, many times that most guys don't give too much of a shit when it comes to winning a cup. They know only 1 team does it every year and they are for the most part just looking to get paid. How else do explain players signing in arizona or Columbus. If they all cared about winning...the shitty cities and teams would never get any UFA's to come there. Yet...they still do get them. Not too many high end players...but they still get some.

Someone has to play for bad teams.

O'Dog also has admitted he wasn't always as dedicated and in shape as he should have been, so he was probably more the exception than the norm.

No one cares about the 5 playoff series. People care about these losers getting salaries of player who have won multiple cups when they always choke the first round.

I wouldn't give a crap how much any player was making if we were winning Cups or going on deep runs.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Yes based on $ per hour the salaries were finally correct. Too bad 10% more usage = 10% less gas in the tank at the end of the season. I feel like Marner's skating is below average for a star forward but his radar and passing are absolutely elite. If you do anything to weaken the skating further (like fatigue from overuse), it changes his ability to control play, draw players out of position, and thread the perfect pass. A tired player loses time and space to make the best plays and that isn't a Mitch thing, its any player. I wish he was a conditioning nut who dreamed of becoming an elite skater but I think he is what he is. Fortunately Keefe just has to look at the minutes that Kane and other small danglers succeeded at and emulate them. It seems obvious in hindsight but I know I was bitching play Willie and JT more, not MM and AM less.

I love that we pay JT 11 million to play 18 minutes - said nobody ever

 

[sittler rules!!!]

Good post.

it really is.

 

[sittler rules!!!]

Using your star forward for PK duties, then sending him out to generate offence right after the PK is over is counter intuitive to me. You just rode this guy for 45 to 90 seconds in a high stress situation, now you are going to expect him to have the lungs to play 45 seconds of pressuring the other team?

Yea, wondering that myself. And why Marner. Think this might be a hangover from Babcock. Babcock did it to generate a little O if needed,when on the PK .

 

[sittler rules!!!]

That could be true. But results speak louder than anything. Raptors won the Finals. Leafs came back from a 3-0 down and won in OT in Game 4 of the playins and came out completely flat in the Winner takes all Game 5. Leafs came out flat in Series clincher Game 5, forced OT and lost on a mistake, than the only player who showed up in Game 6 was Campbell until they were down 2-0 and forced OT. Then came out flat again in Game 7 and didn't force OT. Four Series Clinching games in a row where they came out flat.

Hmmm.......seems to be a leadership issue there......and also note that Jake Muzzin was out for 3 of those clinching games.

 

[sittler rules!!!]

It was never about Yzerman being soft. Trottier was his role model, and he always had that sandpaper element. It was about him focusing on offensive totals at the detriment of a 2 way game. In 1993 we upset them in the 1st round. Look at his point totals/averages before that season and after. One of the links quoted him saying that Bowman turned him into the type of player who didn’t care if he scored a goal for the rest of his career, so long as the team won.

I originally asked, do you see these two having that sort of commitment to a team goal?

I know you don’t. You’ve made it clear you’d rather see and value them at the top of individual categories and no team success rather than won the Stanley Cup with them having moderate individual totals.

Do you see them loving the leafs as much as Yzerman loved the wings, to accept literally producing 40% less individual offense to play the style of hockey that is conducive to success when games matter and your opponent doesn’t let up a single shift?

Perhaps you still do. Bit you also still believe Keefe could be the hit to turn these two fairies into men as well.

Agreed with your assessment until the last statement, which was a little harsh. Neither Marner or Matthews are likely to walk with the greatest to ever play, but if they win a cup (particularly in Toronto) they would most likely be remembered forever. But, alas, greed and individual stats dominate their thought process. Question though. How old was Yzerman , when he "got it"?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Agreed with your assessment until the last statement, which was a little harsh. Neither Marner or Matthews are likely to walk with the greatest to ever play, but if they win a cup (particularly in Toronto) they would most likely be remembered forever. But, alas, greed and individual stats dominate their thought process. Question though. How old was Yzerman , when he "got it"?

I think the whole Yzerman story is a bit overdone. It's not like he was some diva earlier in his career, he always played his ass off and though his regular season numbers went down the same isn't really true for the playoffs. His first cup sure, only 13 points in 20 games but the next one the very next season he had 24 points in 22 games and the for the 3rd cup it was 23 points in 23 games. IMHO the fact that he broke through and won the cup has a lot more to do with his supporting cast then him "getting it".

 

[Bluelines]

I love that we pay JT 11 million to play 18 minutes - said nobody ever

JT needs to score around 43 goals a season to make the 11 mil worth the cap hit. It's already a contract that not aging well. Four more season at $11 mil. Last 2 seasons combined he was on an average 82 game pace for 30 goals.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Any update on how Marners shot is coming along?

Does he plan on being a perimeter player again this year?

 

[studebaker17]

Yea, wondering that myself. And why Marner. Think this might be a hangover from Babcock. Babcock did it to generate a little O if needed,when on the PK .

It's designed to keep the opposing pp cautious knowing a big threat to score is on the ice against them. Nobody worries if a Hyman or mck are on the ice about letting them get an opportunity but they sure do if it's a marner or mathews .

 

[Racer88]

Hmmm.......seems to be a leadership issue there......and also note that Jake Muzzin was out for 3 of those clinching games.

Ya people complain about Kadri letting the team down twice but the fact remains that Muzzin got injured in 3 playoffs clinching games. I understand sometimes you cannot help getting injured but 3 times shows that he is simply not reliable. A different reason then Kadri but the same result non the less

 

[Dekes For Days]

How many years would you give them?

It really depends what happens. If they are barely squeaking into the playoffs, and getting dominated and swept by mediocre teams while healthy, then that's very different from winning divisions and, for example, outplaying a cup champion without Matthews and barely losing in 7. Tough decisions would likely have to be made as they approach the end of their contracts.

If they can’t get the job done, you need to find people who can.

Not getting the job done yet =/= "can't get the job done". You don't improve by giving up on some of the best young players in the world at this age. That's self-destructive for no reason.

Phil won two Cups with the Pens

Yeah, and he probably should have won the Conn Smythe too, after years of people proclaiming Kessel to be a player you could never win with. That should tell you something.

they are at least two tiers below the Champs.

They aren't, and "the champs" no longer exist anyway. They were a team that only existed as a result of a cap loophole giving themselves a massive advantage. We do not have to be Tampa from this year to win the cup.

Every action is a gamble.

Trading away some of the best young players in the world at this age is a much, much, much bigger gamble than believing in them.

 

[Racer88]

It really depends what happens. If they are barely squeaking into the playoffs, and getting dominated and swept by mediocre teams while healthy, then that's very different from winning divisions and, for example, outplaying a cup champion without Matthews and barely losing in 7. Tough decisions would likely have to be made as they approach the end of their contracts.

Not getting the job done yet =/= "can't get the job done". You don't improve by giving up on some of the best young players in the world at this age. That's self-destructive for no reason.

Yeah, and he probably should have won the Conn Smythe too, after years of people proclaiming Kessel to be a player you could never win with. That should tell you something.

They aren't, and "the champs" no longer exist anyway. They were a team that only existed as a result of a cap loophole giving themselves a massive advantage. We do not have to be Tampa from this year to win the cup.

Trading away some of the best young players in the world at this age is a much, much, much bigger gamble than believing in them.

Thx for the answer. I guess where we differ is on how elite they actually are. I don’t want my response to be just one more Marner bash but I do hold out hope for Matthews and do not want to trade him a I believe he is absolutely elite. The real problem in my mind and especially Marner is that they are being paid so high at a young age before as many claim that they just haven’t figured it out yet. Any player being paid like the top of the league should dam well have it figured out. These guys have been the best players on their teams since they were 6 years old and now all of a sudden they can’t figure out how to give the effort relative to their pay cheque.

 

[Dekes For Days]

We have terrible underlying stats

That's not true at all. We have very good underlying metrics.

Leafs players looked like it is okay to lose this one

You're seeing what you want to see.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The real problem in my mind and especially Marner is that they are being paid so high at a young age before as many claim that they just haven’t figured it out yet.

They are being paid what they are because they put up some of the best pre-signing periods in the entire cap era. If we look at the forwards that were given the top 20 cap hit percentages in the cap era:

Cups won first 5 years: 4
Cups won after first 5 years: 15

Our players have shown they can play well and produce in the playoffs. It's not unusual for players to go through dry stretches in terms of conversion in the playoffs, especially at this age against high-end defensive teams and objectively amazing goaltending, with very little PP time. We haven't gotten those easy defensive matchups where stars inflate their playoff stats.

Ironically, part of the issue is that our players were so good that they got us into the playoffs every year of their career, and now people refuse to have patience or even understand what's happening in our series, because they are so angry at the 5 losses that have accumulated - despite the fact that in the majority of those series, we were the worse team going into it, and if anything, overperformed.

For the record, every star that played Montreal this playoffs had underwhelming production except Nylander.

they can’t figure out how to give the effort relative to their pay cheque.

People are confusing a lack of conversion with a lack of effort. Effort is not the issue.

 

[ACC1224]

Thx for the answer. I guess where we differ is on how elite they actually are. I don’t want my response to be just one more Marner bash but I do hold out hope for Matthews and do not want to trade him a I believe he is absolutely elite. The real problem in my mind and especially Marner is that they are being paid so high at a young age before as many claim that they just haven’t figured it out yet. Any player being paid like the top of the league should dam well have it figured out. These guys have been the best players on their teams since they were 6 years old and now all of a sudden they can’t figure out how to give the effort relative to their pay cheque.

Effort is certainly the missing element. I believe this will be the year they figure it out.

 

[Racer88]

Effort is certainly the missing element. I believe this will be the year they figure it out.

I honestly hope so. I will be over my disappointment in the team by puck drop and will be cheering them on

 

[ShaneFalco]

Our players have shown they can play well and produce in the playoffs. It's not unusual for players to go through dry stretches in terms of conversion in the playoffs, especially at this age against high-end defensive teams and objectively amazing goaltending, with very little PP time.

They haven't shown they can play well and produce. The PP is abysmal. Dry stretches - 5 years. That's not unusual? How about total lack of compete in the biggest games. Goaltending - so now both CBJ and Montreal beat us because of goaltending......
I wonder when you'll actually admit the core is not constructed properly. Never is my guess

 

[Racer88]

They are being paid what they are because they put up some of the best pre-signing periods in the entire cap era. If we look at the forwards that were given the top 20 cap hit percentages in the cap era:

Cups won first 5 years: 4
Cups won after first 5 years: 15

Our players have shown they can play well and produce in the playoffs. It's not unusual for players to go through dry stretches in terms of conversion in the playoffs, especially at this age against high-end defensive teams and objectively amazing goaltending, with very little PP time. We haven't gotten those easy defensive matchups where stars inflate their playoff stats.

Ironically, part of the issue is that our players were so good that they got us into the playoffs every year of their career, and now people refuse to have patience or even understand what's happening in our series, because they are so angry at the 5 losses that have accumulated - despite the fact that in the majority of those series, we were the worse team going into it, and if anything, overperformed.

For the record, every star that played Montreal this playoffs had underwhelming production except Nylander.

People are confusing a lack of conversion with a lack of effort. Effort is not the issue.

Absolutely lack of effort in the deciding games the last two playoffs.
3 years of playoffs lack of production for Marner is not a dry spell it is a trend of what he is.
11 million dollar players have to convert or they are not worth 11 million.

 

[ACC1224]

I honestly hope so. I will be over my disappointment in the team by puck drop and will be cheering them on

I was over it after a few days. See no point in dwelling on it.