Is bringing almost everything back next year enough with how little progress has been made when it truly matters?
theathletic.com
Now more than ever, it’s hard to justify not even exploring the possibility of a trade involving one of Marner or Nylander. (Tavares’ contract, the size especially and also the control he exerts with a full no-movement clause, makes the prospect of trading him almost impossible. We covered Matthews here.)
The results haven’t been anywhere near good enough to rule anything out since Tavares became a Leaf in 2018.
Maybe the Leafs and their new GM have been quietly looking around to see what they might be able to fetch in some sort of blockbuster transaction.
Or, maybe this team has decided to dig in yet again and stand by their stars in the hopes that eventually, that belief will pay off. It’s a narrative that Shanahan appears to be fully invested in. Stick with the stars you believe in long enough, especially when it’s hard, and eventually, they will get over the hump and win a Stanley Cup.
It worked for the Capitals in 2018 and the Blues a year later.
It’s not a crazy notion. These are very good players, some of the best the franchise has ever seen. It’s hardly inconceivable that it all comes together for them one spring, just like it did for Washington and St. Louis.
Those two teams, on the other hand, had some playoff success. Not a lot, but some. More than the Leafs to this point. Also: They weren’t as top-heavy.
And the other thing, the bigger thing, is that Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares haven’t been quite good enough as a Quad Squad in the playoffs. They’ve yet to find that extra gear consistently enough to will their team on a deep run. They’ve shown hints of progress, but not enough to fully back their return — again — unconditionally.
That should be a major part of this conversation for the front office this offseason: Do they believe that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander can lead them to a Cup? (Tavares will be 33 in the fall and might well be more of a supporting cast member moving forward). Do they believe that those three still young-ish stars (Matthews and Marner will be 26 when next season begins; Nylander turned 27 in May) can unlock another more meaningful level in the postseason and do it for long enough to erase a Stanley Cup drought that’s inching closer to six decades?
That’s the real bet here if indeed the Leafs are bringing back the band.
Yes, there was progress last spring, but only enough to win a single round.
In the past, the Leafs have quietly suggested that they weren’t necessarily opposed to trading one of their stars (Nylander, namely), but wouldn’t do it just because. It had to make them better. They wouldn’t make change for change’s sake, as Shanahan suggested, and thus, make the team worse. Which was and is totally reasonable. The Leafs also entered this particular offseason with no leverage in any kind of star trade, which makes me wonder if Shanahan’s whispers to the stars were in part a leverage play.
Let poaching teams know, in a roundabout way, that you’re not inclined to trade anyone and maybe the offers improve.
If it’s less about that and more about still believing in those stars, well that sounds a lot like what Dubas was talking about. Being “too staunch and rigid” in that belief. It’s almost arguing that these stars are soooo good that there’s no possible way to trade them without getting worse. Which might be true but might also speak to a failure of imagination.
Maybe the Leafs don’t necessarily get better by dealing Marner or Nylander, but different and maybe even deeper instead. Maybe they bring in a forward with a different skill set, one who leans more rough and rugged and suited to playoff hockey. Maybe they’re able to finally address the No. 2 centre spot with a replacement who nudges Tavares to the wing. Maybe they can move the financial puzzle pieces around to address holes up front and on defence.
