The Case for Tyler Bozak: All Tyler Bozak Discussion Here

[The Winter Soldier]

A few things on the above debate:

1) Whether or not Kadri is good at faceoffs has NOTHING to do with how effective Bozak is as a #1 Centre or how effective Bozak was at shutting down Toews/Hossa. Neither Kadri nor Bozak are good #1 Cs in this league. Neither are good defensively, and neither are elite offensively.

2) Not that it's particularly relevant to Bozak, but Kadri IS bad at faceoffs, and it's a problem. There's no use debating that. If he were a 50%+ FO guy, it could improve his effectiveness quite a bit. Starting off with the puck an extra ~5-8% of the time means the other team ultimately scores less when you're on the ice and you ultimately score more (all else being equal) just because of who has possession more often. It's an advantage both defensively and offensively.

3) Reimer standing on his head and making 47 saves means HE was the one that neutered Toews/Hossa, NOT Bozak or the team in general. If you're a forward with the job to shut down the top opposition line, and you end up being on the ice for a boatload of shots against, then you failed at your job. Whether or not the goalie then does a good/bad job is irrelevant on how you handled yours, which was to limit shots/chances against the goalie.

I know people always want to make it about Kadri and Bozak, but it is a fact isn't it?

We are speaking in generic terms.

Teams that are historically cup winners, have their top guys win faceoffs.

Or atleast you should be 50+1 % in winning draws. This is a huge factor to determining whether you win or lose a series.

I don't know what the debate is about. To be a top Center, you have to be proficient at taking faceoffs.

And to tie this into this thread, this is why RC started Bozak against Toews 21 times and why Bozak took 13 of 27 d-zone starts Saturday.

Do we win if Bozak was not taking faceoffs for us, I don't know, but we do know it would have been much tougher, if at all.

 

[indigobuffalo]

Overall, we are paying Bozak $4.2M/yr and he is on pace for 80pts.

That's insanely good value, isn't it?

Kadri's lack of production this year is also good in the sense that it helps drive down his bargaining power and may lead to a long-term, nice cap hit contract.

We have eye-sores like Clarkson and Lupul eating up a combined $10.5M in cap space... we need to get good value from other players. Clarkson is having a good season but I fear we will never see him as a "good value" signing.

 

[613Leafer]

At their current faceoff win percentages, if both Kadri and Bozak took 1500 faceoffs this season...

Kadri: 46.2% @ 1500 = 693 faceoff wins = 8.45 wins/game
Bozak: 53.6% @ 1500 = 804 faceoff wins = 9.81 wins/game

Is that difference of 1.4 faceoff wins per game significant at all? At all?

It moves the needle. If you had two centres who were exactly the same in all other facets of the game, and both took equal numbers of important draws in the offensive and defensive zones, that 1.4 extra wins per game could get the team an extra few wins over the course of a season. Maybe Centre #1 would end up preventing an extra ~7-8 goals per year by winning an extra key draw in the defensive zone and then providing the team with an extra ~6-7 goals per year for doing the same in the offensive zone.

Not a ton, but over an 82 game season it could influence the goal differential by over 10 goals. And yes, I obviously made up the numbers above. But I don't think it's unrealistic to say it has an impact on one goal for/against once every ~5-6 games or so as that 1.4 adds up to 7+ extra FO wins/losses.

 

[CalgaryLeaf*]

Overall, we are paying Bozak $4.2M/yr and he is on pace for 80pts.

That's insanely good value, isn't it?

Kadri's lack of production this year is also good in the sense that it helps drive down his bargaining power and may lead to a long-term, nice cap hit contract.

We have eye-sores like Clarkson and Lupul eating up a combined $10.5M in cap space... we need to get good value from other players. Clarkson is having a good season but I fear we will never see him as a "good value" signing.

1. There is ZERO chance thart Bozak gets 80 points this season.

2. Kadri will probably exceed last year's point production if he stays on a line with Kessel.

Kadri is going to cost the Leafs a good amount if they want to lock him for to a long term deal. I'm guessing that he'll be asking for 4.0 to 4.75M a year.

 

[Kyle Doobas*]

Let's not pretend this.

You can not match up against Toews 26 times a game when Kadri cannot win a faceoff against the one of the league's best if his life depended on it. We saw this against Zetterberg, so while you and others want to downplay Bozak's contribution, Our coaches and Mgt staff used our best center, our alternate captain, against Chicago's best Center and Captain.

You can post corsi all you want, Leafs gave up 26 shots in the 3rd period. Chicago is a great team, it happens.

But we got the win due to Reimer, and Bozak's line turning Toews and Hossa into librarians Sat night. Proof is in the win, and atleast I heard on Leafs lunch the same observations of Towes and Hossa having quiet games as what I saw.

Did you have some accident over the summer that rendered you incapable of bringing up Kadri in every post?

Bozak doesn't deserve too much flack, but he sure as hell doesn't deserve a pat on the head and a gold star for being outshot 2:1 and flubbing on the chances his line did generate.

 

[indigobuffalo]

3) Reimer standing on his head and making 47 saves means HE was the one that neutered Toews/Hossa, NOT Bozak or the team in general. If you're a forward with the job to shut down the top opposition line, and you end up being on the ice for a boatload of shots against, then you failed at your job. Whether or not the goalie then does a good/bad job is irrelevant on how you handled yours, which was to limit shots/chances against the goalie.

Only 6 of those 3rd period shots were taken from high % scoring areas. 10 were from the point (including one from the N-Zone). 7 were taken from the faceoff circles.

Conversely, despite only getting 7 shots the Leafs had 3 in high % areas and scored on one.

So the Leafs managed to get into high-% scoring areas on 43% of their shots and they limited the Hawks to just 23% in high % scoring areas.

All-in-all, a lot of those shots are perimeter shots that give a goalie a high % chance of saving them. It means less work for a goalie resulting from hard work by the players. Not trying to take away from Reimer's stellar performance, but suggesting that it was a solo-goalie performance that won the game is neglecting a lot of relevant data.

Forcing shots to the perimeter is especially relevant for a goalie like Reimer because he is big and plays a positional game which covers the majority of the net leaving little to no openings on shots from a distance.

To score on positional goalies you need lateral puck-movement. The Hawks didn't get a lot of open passing lanes and had to cycle the puck around the perimeter, which gives Reimer ample time to re-position himself for the eventual shot.

The team was also good at keeping the crease/slot clear so Reimer had good visibility and puck-tracking.

Overall it was a team win, but Reimer gave a great performance.

You don't beat a team like the Hawks by playing mediocre in any area.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Did you have some accident over the summer that rendered you incapable of bringing up Kadri in every post?

Bozak doesn't deserve too much flack, but he sure as hell doesn't deserve a pat on the head and a gold star for being outshot 2:1 and flubbing on the chances his line did generate.

You just did it. It seems you are the one obsessed with this.

 

[Duke Silver]

It's not insignificant, but FO wins form only a part of the total C package.

As far as a Kadri v Bozak comparison goes, one has 10+ pts the other doesn't. That matters too.

Kadri's possession numbers may be good but he's not getting the points.

Bozak has also been a statistically high shot accuracy player in his time with the Leafs, so his possession numbers don't need to be as high to generate the same offensive output.

Then you look at defensive acumen. Did Kadri get a breakaway on the PK by having a good active stick while pressuring the blue line? I thought it was Bozak...

Look at d-zone starts. Bozak got 21 of 23 vs Toews. People may dispute Carlyle as a good coach (not like he's ever won anything like a Cup though huh...) but, you know, he's a former Norris Trophy winner so I give him a few nods for that at least. Anyways, if he feels playing Bozak v Toews give his team the best chance to win, doesn't that endorsement make a big difference?

Whether it's because Bozak has a better chance of winning the draw or he just plays a smarter defensive game, Bozak is on the ice when it matters.

That being said, I noticed that the guys on the ice at the end of the game were Komarov, Winnik, and Santorelli.

So that's our top shutdown line (and they're not really even a line).

Between Kadri and Bozak though, I'd say they are relatively close together and both are having great seasons despite Kadri not producing points, but both are doing good jobs. Kadri's production is benefitting from Kessel and Bozak is still making it count with JVR, so things are looking good.

Kadri and Bozak are also capable of being retained, and if Bozak spends significant time on the "2nd" line then re-signing him should be roughly on-par with his current contract.

All these things are good.

If the Leafs ever had to decide between the two though, I think Kadri fetches more on the market so IMO the Leafs would trade Kadri simply because he could return better value.

But if the Leafs get offered equal value for Bozak and Kadri, they'd move out Bozak.

That wasn't part of a larger argument, I was just pointing out the senselessness of focusing on faceoff ability as a determining factor in who is a better center. In the long run, it's an ultimately meaningless difference.

 

[Kyle Doobas*]

You just did it. It seems you are the one obsessed with this.

"You can not match up against Toews 26 times a game when Kadri..."

 

[The Winter Soldier]

"You can not match up against Toews 26 times a game when Kadri..."

Obcourse, not surprising in that vast post, you focused on that 1 truth.

 

[Duke Silver]

It moves the needle. If you had two centres who were exactly the same in all other facets of the game, and both took equal numbers of important draws in the offensive and defensive zones, that 1.4 extra wins per game could get the team an extra few wins over the course of a season. Maybe Centre #1 would end up preventing an extra ~7-8 goals per year by winning an extra key draw in the defensive zone and then providing the team with an extra ~6-7 goals per year for doing the same in the offensive zone.

Not a ton, but over an 82 game season it could influence the goal differential by over 10 goals. And yes, I obviously made up the numbers above. But I don't think it's unrealistic to say it has an impact on one goal for/against once every ~5-6 games or so as that 1.4 adds up to 7+ extra FO wins/losses.

Sorry but I feel you're really overstating things here.

 

[indigobuffalo]

1. There is ZERO chance thart Bozak gets 80 points this season.

2. Kadri will probably exceed last year's point production if he stays on a line with Kessel.

Kadri is going to cost the Leafs a good amount if they want to lock him for to a long term deal. I'm guessing that he'll be asking for 4.0 to 4.75M a year.

1. There isn't ZERO chance of it happening, one, and second I didn't say he would get it he's just on that pace. He's closer to it than Kadri is. Bozak is on a rocket pace though and he should, at the very least, post career numbers this season.

2. $4M to $4.75M is exactly where I would hope the Leafs re-sign Kadri and this is extremely affordable. By contrast, Toews nets north of $10M.

So long as Kadri plays 40% as well or better than Toews, that's great value in a player.

And IMO he's playing better than 40% as well as Toews. So is Bozak.

 

[Kyle Doobas*]

Obcourse, not surprising in that vast post, you focused on that 1 truth.

Because it was completely irrelevant to the point I was making. There wasn't any basis for injecting Kadri into the discussion.

 

[Purity*]

I know people always want to make it about Kadri and Bozak, but it is a fact isn't it?

We are speaking in generic terms.

Teams that are historically cup winners, have their top guys win faceoffs.

Or atleast you should be 50+1 % in winning draws. This is a huge factor to determining whether you win or lose a series.

I don't know what the debate is about. To be a top Center, you have to be proficient at taking faceoffs.

And to tie this into this thread, this is why RC started Bozak against Toews 21 times and why Bozak took 13 of 27 d-zone starts Saturday.

Do we win if Bozak was not taking faceoffs for us, I don't know, but we do know it would have been much tougher, if at all.

2012 playoffs:Travis Zajac 54.2 15th in league Adam Henrique 43.6 37th in league, LAK centers: Kopitar 48.6 on faceoffs 29th on league, Jarret Stoll (who's definitely not one of LA's best players) was 21st in the league at 51.8

2013 playoffs: Toews with 53.1 and Handuz with 46.4, 17th and 37th in the league, Bergeron 1st in the league with 61.5% (Alas career faceoff god tops the list, shocker), Krecji was 39th with 45.2%.

2014 playoffs: Jarret Stoll (Maybe he is one of LA's top players ) with 8th int he league at 56.7 and Kopitar 19th with 53.7%. For the NYR: top player in the league Dominic Moore led faceoffs for them at 54.5% good for 13th in the league, their top line center was 42.2% on draws (Stepan).

So teams that are historically cup winners have their top guys winning faceoffs eh? The faceoff totals fluctuate greatly from year to year, and considering that there's usually only 45-50 centers in the playoffs, top 10 should be the deciding territory, there is only two examples of players from those cup teams being in the top 10, and Jarret Stoll isn't a top-6 center (like your argument said that top players win the faceoffs). Completely refuted. It's obvious what you're doing, you try and make faceoffs sound way more important and super-awesome than they actually are just so you can buff up Bozak to be support your own agenda.

You try and get off saying that Bozak had a better game than Kadri even though he did diddly squat and you try and justify it by bringing with faceoffs and zone starts even though Kadri was clearly better. Do you realize how incredibly weak these arguments are? No matter how many times your arguments get refuted and beaten you always come back with the same stuff.

To me, it looks like faceoffs don't have nearly the impact on series that you're trying to make it sound like. You don't need to be good at faceoffs to be a top center, I've debunked that several times now.

On topic, do you really think Bozak had the better game? He isn't even half of the player that you always try and make him out to be, no matter how much you want to believe it. .

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Because it was completely irrelevant to the point I was making. There wasn't any basis for injecting Kadri into the discussion.

It was relevant because it showed Bozak's value to this team, I know that bothers some here that he is the only natural Center above 50%, 53.1% on the team at faceoffs, but as I said it is a truth. Further, I will post about any player I want, this is not up to you to decide.

 

[pooleboy]

Did you have some accident over the summer that rendered you incapable of bringing up Kadri in every post?

Bozak doesn't deserve too much flack, but he sure as hell doesn't deserve a pat on the head and a gold star for being outshot 2:1 and flubbing on the chances his line did generate.

U must be new here.

 

[Kyle Doobas*]

It was relevant because it showed Bozak's value to this team

What? Winning half the draws he takes, failing to maintain possession of the puck either way and getting outshot 2:1?

Like, how in the hell does Kadri being bad at faceoffs and a bad match-up against Jonathan Toews prove Bozak's worth when Bozak clearly wasn't a good match-up either?

 

[indigobuffalo]

That wasn't part of a larger argument, I was just pointing out the senselessness of focusing on faceoff ability as a determining factor in who is a better center. In the long run, it's an ultimately meaningless difference.

Well I would say it isn't negligible, as over time it makes a difference as those extra FO wins add up. Not to mention that when a coach has to consider who to put on the ice to win a faceoff, control the puck and kill valuable seconds late in a game on or the PK, he's going to go with the player that has a better FO% or at least a better FO% against the opposing C.

So in the comparison between Bozak and Kadri it matters quite a bit, even if the stat is relatively useless in-and-of-itself.

For comparing C's league-wide it's next to irrelevant, but when considering usage in crucial points in a game between two players, it does matter.

That said, I think Kadri and Bozak are roughly 50/50 in terms of skill, talent, value to the team, and production.

I'm happy we have both and think they're parts of a complete puzzle.

Both have top 30 stats in most departments and are extremely affordable.

Good cap hits, good production, reliable defensively, all good things.

People, though, keep getting stuck in this mindset of Leafs need an elite 1C so they allocate $9M to the 1C position, and assume that Bozak and Kadri cost too much to be 2C/3C on a competitive roster.

I would counter that by saying that they're good enough to be 1C and 2C (totally interchangeably) and it frees up $5M in cap space to use elsewhere on the roster, ideally in creating solid depth on the 3rd/4th lines, allowing for a balanced attack.

 

[indigobuffalo]

What? Winning half the draws he takes, failing to maintain possession of the puck either way and getting outshot 2:1?

Leafs rely on a defensive system when protecting the lead that creates incredibly flawed corsi stats. They allow perimeter, low-potential shots that have the effect of boosting corsi for the opposing team despite not actually creating significant risk of being scored on.

Corsi doesn't differentiate between shots from inside the blue paint and shots from centre ice. They're all the same "possession" markers.

I don't want to open the floor to debate the system but I will say I don't agree that Bozak was "outshot" 2:1 in the sense you're trying to portray.

He did his job defensively, relied on a system the coach instituted which the coach believes will win games despite having bad fancy stats, and against the Hawks it worked.

Not sure how this would mean he played poorly.

 

[Purity*]

Leafs rely on a defensive system when protecting the lead that creates incredibly flawed corsi stats. They allow perimeter, low-potential shots that have the effect of boosting corsi for the opposing team despite not actually creating significant risk of being scored on.

Corsi doesn't differentiate between shots from inside the blue paint and shots from centre ice. They're all the same "possession" markers.

I don't want to open the floor to debate the system but I will say I don't agree that Bozak was "outshot" 2:1 in the sense you're trying to portray.

He did his job defensively, relied on a system the coach instituted which the coach believes will win games despite having bad fancy stats, and against the Hawks it worked.

Not sure how this would mean he played poorly.

I disagree, Reimer was a god and saved our hides.

I also disagree with Randy's system of defending leads. The whole 20 minute PK in the third thing is absolutely brutal on every end of the spectrum, it needs to change. When the Jets beat the Hawks last night, they were calm as a cucumber in the last 5 mins and were even getting shots on Chicago.

Why is it so important to defend Bozak last game? He's been great this season, that was certainly not one of his better games this season, he's looked much better than that in other games, soak that in instead.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

2012 playoffs:Travis Zajac 54.2 15th in league Adam Henrique 43.6 37th in league, LAK centers: Kopitar 48.6 on faceoffs 29th on league, Jarret Stoll (who's definitely not one of LA's best players) was 21st in the league at 51.8

2013 playoffs: Toews with 53.1 and Handuz with 46.4, 17th and 37th in the league, Bergeron 1st in the league with 61.5% (Alas career faceoff god tops the list, shocker), Krecji was 39th with 45.2%.

2014 playoffs: Jarret Stoll (Maybe he is one of LA's top players ) with 8th int he league at 56.7 and Kopitar 19th with 53.7%. For the NYR: top player in the league Dominic Moore led faceoffs for them at 54.5% good for 13th in the league, their top line center was 42.2% on draws (Stepan).

So teams that are historically cup winners have their top guys winning faceoffs eh? The faceoff totals fluctuate greatly from year to year, and considering that there's usually only 45-50 centers in the playoffs, top 10 should be the deciding territory, there is only two examples of players from those cup teams being in the top 10, and Jarret Stoll isn't a top-6 center (like your argument said that top players win the faceoffs). Completely refuted. It's obvious what you're doing, you try and make faceoffs sound way more important and super-awesome than they actually are just so you can buff up Bozak to be support your own agenda.

You try and get off saying that Bozak had a better game than Kadri even though he did diddly squat and you try and justify it by bringing with faceoffs and zone starts even though Kadri was clearly better. Do you realize how incredibly weak these arguments are? No matter how many times your arguments get refuted and beaten you always come back with the same stuff.

To me, it looks like faceoffs don't have nearly the impact on series that you're trying to make it sound like. You don't need to be good at faceoffs to be a top center, I've debunked that several times now.

On topic, do you really think Bozak had the better game? He isn't even half of the player that you always try and make him out to be, no matter how much you want to believe it. .

Cup winners, faceoff %. This is the past 4 years. What do they have in common?

LA Kings
Kopitar 53.3%
Carter 52.2%

Bottom 6C's but I feel like posting them also

Richards 53.3%
Stoll 54.7

Chicago
Toews 59.9%
Handzus 55%

LA Kings
Kopitar 53.8%
Richards 50.5%
Stoll 55%

Boston
Bergeron 56.6%
Krejci 48%
Kelly 53.7%
Campbell 51.7%

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

What did Bozak's possession numbers look like the first two periods anyways? Is there a site that tracks it by period?

 

[King85Kong]

Dave Steckel and Jay McClement were both good at faceoffs, guess that makes them first line center material by this threads standards. There is more to being a top center then just that. Sure Bozak's good at faceoffs, his problem comes after that. He's not very good at handling the puck and relies on his linemates to do most of the work. He's line has historically been eaten alive on the defensive end, getting out played and getting heavily scored on (not all his fault).
Let's see how Bozak fairs away from Kessel before crowning him. Though he still got Kessel for powerplays, where most of his points come from. He has to reach 50 points (never done before) before he dreams of an 80 point season. Points won't come as easy without Kessel. He has a lot of work to do before being an actual #1 center. Let's see if he can improve on his weaknesses.
Good at faceoffs and good on the PK, sounds like a good third line shutdown center to me. Third lines are often matched up against the oppositions top line (Toews).

 

[Purity*]

Cup winners, faceoff %. This is the past 4 years. What do they have in common?

LA Kings
Kopitar 53.3%
Carter 52.2%

Bottom 6C's but I feel like posting them also

Richards 53.3%
Stoll 54.7

Chicago
Toews 59.9%
Handzus 55%

LA Kings
Kopitar 53.8%
Richards 50.5%
Stoll 55%

Boston
Bergeron 56.6%
Krejci 48%
Kelly 53.7%
Campbell 51.7%

Uhh yeah no, doesn't work like that.

I already posted the previous playoff FO% numbers, and in the last 3 years, there's been 2 centers who have been top 10 in faceoffs those playoffs. Once again, faceoffs are not NEARLY as important as you are trying to make them out to be. Correlation does not equal causation.

I've also seen you trying to refute Corsi in the past when it starts going against your agenda, guess what else those 3 teams have in common??? You'll grasp at anything with remote relevance to support your agenda.

 

[Kyle Doobas*]

Cup winners, faceoff %. This is the past 4 years. What do they have in common?

LA Kings
Kopitar 53.3%
Carter 52.2%

Bottom 6C's but I feel like posting them also

Richards 53.3%
Stoll 54.7

Chicago
Toews 59.9%
Handzus 55%

LA Kings
Kopitar 53.8%
Richards 50.5%
Stoll 55%

Boston
Bergeron 56.6%
Krejci 48%
Kelly 53.7%
Campbell 51.7%

Precisely my point about cherry-picking stats. Literally a few posts ago in this thread you dismissively invite me to "post all the Corsi stats want", and now you come back with faceoff percentage?

Guess what the past few championships teams are also really good at? Corsi.