At their current faceoff win percentages, if both Kadri and Bozak took 1500 faceoffs this season...
Kadri: 46.2% @ 1500 = 693 faceoff wins = 8.45 wins/game
Bozak: 53.6% @ 1500 = 804 faceoff wins = 9.81 wins/game
Is that difference of 1.4 faceoff wins per game significant at all? At all?
It's not insignificant, but FO wins form only a part of the total C package.
As far as a Kadri v Bozak comparison goes, one has 10+ pts the other doesn't. That matters too.
Kadri's possession numbers may be good but he's not getting the points.
Bozak has also been a statistically high shot accuracy player in his time with the Leafs, so his possession numbers don't need to be as high to generate the same offensive output.
Then you look at defensive acumen. Did Kadri get a breakaway on the PK by having a good active stick while pressuring the blue line? I thought it was Bozak...
Look at d-zone starts. Bozak got 21 of 23 vs Toews. People may dispute Carlyle as a good coach (not like he's ever won anything like a Cup though huh...) but, you know, he's a former Norris Trophy winner so I give him a few nods for that at least. Anyways, if he feels playing Bozak v Toews give his team the best chance to win, doesn't that endorsement make a big difference?
Whether it's because Bozak has a better chance of winning the draw or he just plays a smarter defensive game, Bozak is on the ice when it matters.
That being said, I noticed that the guys on the ice at the end of the game were Komarov, Winnik, and Santorelli.
So that's our top shutdown line (and they're not really even a line).
Between Kadri and Bozak though, I'd say they are relatively close together and both are having great seasons despite Kadri not producing points, but both are doing good jobs. Kadri's production is benefitting from Kessel and Bozak is still making it count with JVR, so things are looking good.
Kadri and Bozak are also capable of being retained, and if Bozak spends significant time on the "2nd" line then re-signing him should be roughly on-par with his current contract.
All these things are good.
If the Leafs ever had to decide between the two though, I think Kadri fetches more on the market so IMO the Leafs would trade Kadri simply because he could return better value.
But if the Leafs get offered equal value for Bozak and Kadri, they'd move out Bozak.