Speculation: The Bruins and Jeremy Swayman are far apart in contract term (length) and dollar amount.

[Spring in Fialta]

8 years of the $80 million Price contract and Montreal made the playoffs twice.

Great signing, sorry, I’ve seen the light.

Pay Swayman what he wants.

You could just come out and say 'I didn't know what I was talking about and I was wrong.'

 

[spintheblackcircle]

You could just come out and say 'I didn't know what I was talking about and I was wrong.'

I admitted it, Price was a bargain.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

I admitted it, Price was a bargain.

Good job arguing with ghosts, Casper.

It was pretty funny watching you speak confidently about the cap (and not knowing the concept of insurance) and being so blatantly wrong though.

I guess we can make this even a littler funnier by letting you know that the Habs were regularly well below the cap during Price's healthy years in that contract.

 

[SensontheRush]

Can someone explain to me why or how the Bruins get penalized if Swayman doesn't sign?

I read that if Swayman sits out the first 1/4 of the season and signs for $8m then he only actually takes home $6m, but somehow the Bruins are charged $10m? How's that work?

Swayman gets his full contract amount, but it gets paid out over a smaller amount of games, thus increasing the pro-rated AAV that year.

If I'm not mistaken.

 

[PlayMakers]

Swayman gets his full contract amount, but it gets paid out over a smaller amount of games, thus increasing the pro-rated AAV that year.

If I'm not mistaken.

No, he does not get his full amount. He loses 1/192nd for every day he sits out. On an $8m contract that's about $6k per day.

For some reason unknown to me, the Bruins are penalized 6x that number against the cap. So if Swayman signs for $8m after sitting out 1 day, he loses $6k and the Bruins are charged with an extra $36k against the cap for this season.

 

[MrGone]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1841831916317675607

Get that bag Sway!

That is what you get when you pick arbitration.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

That is what you get when you pick arbitration.

Except that it seems like the Bruins just have a ruined relationship with the player now. Seems like he took it extremely personal but I do agree that he should have seen it coming when it was headed there. With that said, I don't know what the hell Boston was thinking shipping off Ullmark if your own guy was that disgruntled and unsigned. For such a first-rate organization, seems like such a stupid and self-inflicted fumble.

 

[Fatass]

Before the season starts the Bruins will sign Swayman to a three year, 24 million dollar deal.

 

[Bruce Granville]

Ullmark had to get moved in order to free up cap space for Swayman’s new contract…Had Swayman not filed for arbitration last summer and instead opted for a bridge deal - Ullmark could have finished playing his contract with the Bruins.

Here the Bruins made their worst mistake. They didn‘t choose a two year deal in arbitration although they knew the agent and knew what they had said about Swayman in the arbitration.
They had to deal Ullmark before he could change his no trade list…and crapped their bed.

 

[CannonFire1]

8 years of the $80 million Price contract and Montreal made the playoffs twice.

Great signing, sorry, I’ve seen the light.

Pay Swayman what he wants.

So if Leon Draisaitl suffers a career ending injury and ends up on LTIR, your position is it was foolish to sign him?

 

[NotWendell]

That is what you get when you pick arbitration.

If he came to Columbus, he wouldn't have to worry about his performance in the playoffs being criticized.

 

[seanlinden]

Yes, Swayman is free to talk to any other teams and they can offer an offer sheet if they would like. Crickets. There are no 9m offers coming.

And the upside for Swayman is getting another 8 year deal at 29 years old. Instead of hitting UFA again at 33. Just like Helly. Just like Saros. And just like Shesterkin will be signing. Do you think all of their agents are grossly irresponsible? The only goalie to go long term as an RFA in the last 10 years is Vasi.

If we assume the cap goes up ~4m a year, in 4 years the equivalent to the Helly/Saros level deals would be worth over 8x10m AAV.

Option 1:
4x6.5 + 8x10 = 106m

Option 2:
8x8 + ??? ... do we think that Swayman will be getting a 4x10 deal at 33 years old?

All the other top goalies for the last 10 years (aside from Vasi) have done a shorter term deal to take them to their late 20s to cash in again when they have proven more. The maturity and aging curves for goalies just doesn't match up with the CBA timelines like they do for skaters.

Of course, there's a big gap between being willing to pay Swayman $9m x 8, and giving up 4 first round picks for the privilige of doing so. The team that is willing to pay him that is likely not very good right now, and recognizes the importance of keepign that future currency.

As for the comparables you mentioned, it's potentially important to consider the circumstances that each one of those players signed their previous contracts under. Notably, it's important to consider that the overarching assumption is that there's a big bump to the cap coming in recent years, with a lot of players wanting to make sure they get their fair share of that bump.

Connor Hellebuyck did a 6 year deal, coming off a 67 game seaso nwhere he put up a .924. The previous 2 years he played 26 and 56 games. The cap was $79.5m at that time, and his hit was $6.167m. Essentially, he had 1 year as a #1 with decent numbers, and then his contract year was obviously great. If you were to do a 6-year with Swayman, just using inflation it would be around $7m per.

Saros at that point in his career, was still largely living in the shadow of Pekka Rinne. He signed a contract to get himself a guaranteed "spot" as a tandem goalie.

Shesterkin, prior to signing his deal, had essentially 1 season -- the COVID-short one -- worth of experience in the NHL. Yes, he was the #1 (playing 35 games) and was very good, but you have no idea if it's a flash-in-the-pan situation, so not a terrible idea to get yourself SOME security.

Swayman doesn't have the "role" track record that Hellebuyck does, but he's established himself as a very strong tandem goaltender for longer than Hellebuyck had at that point in his career. It's also worthwhile considering that Hellebuyck has been one of the league's best goaltenders for the vast majority of his career, yet never amongst the highest paid. Furthermore, you look at the deal he signed -- $8.5m x 7 -- does he get that if he hadn't been as remarkably consistent in his age 29 and 30 years?

So yeah, with a shade under $5m in career earnings thus far, it's almost certainly in Swayman's best interest to lock down somewhere between $65 and $70m in guaranteed money, even if it means making it really difficult for him to get another big deal in 8 years.

 

[seanlinden]

Depends on what else they have, whether it's good prospects in net or lots of talented young players to sign in the coming years. Or both. It's not a no brainer.

A young goalie who you can truly build a Cup contending team philosophy around is rare and easily worth a big investment .... But I'm not sure Swayman is like a young Brodeur or Roy in that way. And if he is, then Boston should pay him whatever the hell he wants and deal away other players to make it work if necessary.

From everything we've seen about Swayman, it certainly seems that he has the makings of a star goalie in this league. The challenge is, to win with him at $8-9m, is probably going to take 2-3 years for the cap to come up and for him to establish himself as a #1.

Those 2-3 years are not what Boston is really looking at in terms of a contention window. They want to, and need to win now.

Teams like Anaheim, Chicago, etc.... they don't give a damn about now... for them it's about what they'll have in 2-3 years.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

You should not air the laundry of contract negotiations publicly. Swayman should ask for more than 8M. The price for trying to publicly embarrass the Swayman camp

 

[gstommylee]

You should not air the laundry of contract negotiations publicly. Swayman should ask for more than 8M. The price for trying to publicly embarrass the Swayman camp

And yet swayman's camp wasn't doing the same darn thing...

 

[centipede2233]

If this was any other team, a deal would have already been made. But sway is dealing with jacobs and Boston has never shied away from dealing star players. It’ll be interesting come Dec 1st… could be a nylander situation here most likely

 

[FMichael]

Here the Bruins made their worst mistake. They didn‘t choose a two year deal in arbitration although they knew the agent and knew what they had said about Swayman in the arbitration.
They had to deal Ullmark before he could change his no trade list…and crapped their bed.

Must agree with you that Neely/Sweeney screwed up by not going for the 2 years on the arbitration contract.

 

[BlueSeal]

So if Leon Draisaitl suffers a career ending injury and ends up on LTIR, your position is it was foolish to sign him?

To be fair in this example, both sides of the argument are that he isn't playing with the Oilers (not signed or LTIR'd), so isn't that the same thing?

 

[Beesfan]

Must agree with you that Neely/Sweeney screwed up by not going for the 2 years on the arbitration contract.

I believe that would have dropped Swayman off at UFA after the second year. Negotiating with a soon to be UFA is even harder.

 

[gstommylee]

If this was any other team, a deal would have already been made. But sway is dealing with jacobs and Boston has never shied away from dealing star players. It’ll be interesting come Dec 1st… could be a nylander situation here most likely

What make you think other teams would given 8x9m if they had him? Don't assume anything...

 

[BronxBruin]

I believe that would have dropped Swayman off at UFA after the second year. Negotiating with a soon to be UFA is even harder.

He is two years away from UFA so he would have been a RFA had the Bruins opted for a two year arbitration award. People have speculated the Bruins opted for 1 year as a favor to Swayman.

 

[centipede2233]

What make you think other teams would given 8x9m if they had him? Don't assume anything...

Dubie dubas would

 

[ReimanSum1908]

That is what you get when you pick arbitration.

For the "last gladiators" who play the ostensibly toughest sport in the world, they certainly have an infantile response to the negotiation process.

 

[KevinRedkey]

You gotta think BOS would need at least a serviceable goalie in any deal if they trade Swayman. Most teams either already have a legit starter (Vasi in TBL for example) and wouldn't pay the price, or don't really have a goalie I think Boston would accept in return (Mrazek in CHI for example). If you narrow it down to those who realistically want an upgrade in net, but also have a somewhat serviceable replacement to send back, and other available assets to entice Boston - I think Anaheim becomes the obvious front runner.

Gibson and Zegras makes a lot of sense as base IMO. They could also involve Vatrano and other pieces on either side of they need to.

Utah is another one but is Vejmelka acceptable for Boston? There's Edmonton but one of Kane or RNH would need to waive their NMC (for cap purposes) which seems unlikely. I wonder about St.Louis as well but I'm not sure they necessarily want to move Bennington.

I really think it'll be Anaheim if he gets dealt.

 

[CheerstoBeers]

He is two years away from UFA so he would have been a RFA had the Bruins opted for a two year arbitration award. People have speculated the Bruins opted for 1 year as a favor to Swayman.

Wrong. The two year arbitration contract would have been over after this season with Swayman still being s RFA. Not UFA til after 25/26.

Edit. I'm sure your post said UFA after the arbitration? Did you edit your post? Maybe my brain is playing tricks on me