Speculation: The Bruins and Jeremy Swayman are far apart in contract term (length) and dollar amount.

[GirardSpinorama]

Sure....

Let's use that $8m x 8 year "example"... and also assume that Swayman believes he can be a top 3 goalie in the league for a long time.

In year 1, he's the 5th highest paid goalie in the league.

In year 2, he's the 6th highest paid goalie in the league (Shesterkin will 100% bump him down). Oettinger might be in the conversation as well.

In year 3, Bobrovsky will expire, potentailly making him the 5th highest paid goalie in the league. However, what's the cap going to be at that time? $100m?

In years 4-8, obviously difficult to predict who's going to be up as a goalie, but I think if you're Lewis Gross, you've got a valid point in arguing that if Swayman is a top 3-5 goalie, he should be paid higher than the 5th or 6th or 7th highest salary in the prime of his career.

You dont have to assume that Swayman believes he can be a top 3 goalie. But thats a lot different than him actually being a top 3 goalie. Assuming Boston believes he can be anywhere between a top 3 goalie or a top 12 goalie, why should they pay for the best case scenario?

 

[TheBeard]

You dont have to assume that Swayman believes he can be a top 3 goalie. But thats a lot different than him actually being a top 3 goalie. Assuming Boston believes he can be anywhere between a top 3 goalie or a top 12 goalie, why should they pay for the best case scenario?

Agreed. Right now, with what Sway is asking, if the bruins get anything less than the best case scenario then they overpaid.

 

[wintersej]

Sure....

Let's use that $8m x 8 year "example"... and also assume that Swayman believes he can be a top 3 goalie in the league for a long time.

In year 1, he's the 5th highest paid goalie in the league.

In year 2, he's the 6th highest paid goalie in the league (Shesterkin will 100% bump him down). Oettinger might be in the conversation as well.

In year 3, Bobrovsky will expire, potentailly making him the 5th highest paid goalie in the league. However, what's the cap going to be at that time? $100m?

In years 4-8, obviously difficult to predict who's going to be up as a goalie, but I think if you're Lewis Gross, you've got a valid point in arguing that if Swayman is a top 3-5 goalie, he should be paid higher than the 5th or 6th or 7th highest salary in the prime of his career.

And honestly this is all why I’m surprised that they are talking 8 instead of 4 years.

 

[Score08]

yeah you make a good point, clearly he's brother from stuff from the past so he prob would have made that clear


arbitration can get nasty. depending what was said, may never go back to 100% but I dont believe Sway will be trash within 3 years.

He’ll be bagging groceries in 3 yrs

 

[FMichael]

Yeah but thats not to his own fault. If he had a choice, I'm sure he would have liked to prove that the last season but Bruins elected to once again go with the tandem. Now its his first real chance to prove it and Bruins put themselves in an awful position. Bruins want their cake and to eat it too. They dont want to pay him full on starter money (seems like they do now though) but now obviously expect him to be their full time starter going forward.

Swayman is clearly very jaded to how the management has handled him and his contract situations these past 2 years.

$7.8 aav for 8 seasons would put Swayman as the 5th highest active goalie in the NHL…Is that not starter money???

It’s gotten to the point where most fans have soured on Swayman.

 

[FMichael]

Dude sounds fragile

It was his damn choice to go to arbitration. and he didn't like the arguments they made in arbitration. WTF???? That is arbitration.

Ray Ferraro was talking about this. You have to be very level headed if you go arbitration and shrug things off, as that is the nature of what it is. It's a debate to a neutral party. If you dont want to hear somebody roasting you or can't handle it, then dont go arbitration.

This is the comedy of Gen Z aka Participation Trophy generation…Demand more than what you’re worth and being offended when told no.

 

[FMichael]

"i dont feel love so overpay me" is not something I empathize with. Very toxic when you have so many teammates that count on your performance and also gets underpaid if you are overpaid.

Ullmark had to get moved in order to free up cap space for Swayman’s new contract…Had Swayman not filed for arbitration last summer and instead opted for a bridge deal - Ullmark could have finished playing his contract with the Bruins.

 

[Cancuks]

I think Swayman's contract demands are due to him not believing in his own ability. He won't sign a one year deal or a bridge deal because he knows he's not a top 5 goalie in the league and not having Ullmark to help offset his workload will expose him. He wants to get paid now with max term so he's got job security and a boat anchor of a contract that the Bruins know they'll regret.

 

[nashnaidoo]

I think Swayman's contract demands are due to him not believing in his own ability. He won't sign a one year deal or a bridge deal because he knows he's not a top 5 goalie in the league and not having Ullmark to help offset his workload will expose him. He wants to get paid now with max term so he's got job security and a boat anchor of a contract that the Bruins know they'll regret.

How do you know that Swayman won't take the shorter deal to take him to UFA? Maybe both sides are willing to look long term since they both have the belief in Swayman.

Boston coming with 7.8 x 8 indicates to me that they think he's starter caliber even though he hasn't hit the imaginary game threshold everyone talks about. If Boston didn't have this belief why did they go there instead of working on a short term deal? Right now all they are deciding is how much, not if he's worth being for 8 years as a starter.

 

[JPT]

He’ll be bagging groceries in 3 yrs

Damn. That makes it seem really strange that any team would even want to sign him at all, ever.

 

[seanlinden]

And honestly this is all why I’m surprised that they are talking 8 instead of 4 years.

It makes very little sense for Jeremy Swayman to take the risk of going 4 years.

Based on what he's proven thus far, there are undoubtedly multiple teams out there that would happily do a $9m x 8 year contract, hoping that when they're ready to contend in 2-3 years, he'll be a premier established goalie secured for the duration of their contention window. Lewis Gross would probably know, given that Swayman remains free to talk to any team.

Lets say the 4-year deal is $6.5m. You're talking about $72m vs $26m. It would be grossly irresponsble for an agent to leave $46m on the table at such a critical junction in his career.

 

[seanlinden]

You dont have to assume that Swayman believes he can be a top 3 goalie. But thats a lot different than him actually being a top 3 goalie. Assuming Boston believes he can be anywhere between a top 3 goalie or a top 12 goalie, why should they pay for the best case scenario?

Objectively, they're not really.

Let's say the number that gets it done is $8.5m x 8.

At $8.5m, he's tied with Hellebuyck at #4.

In year 2, he'll be #5 (Shesterkin), maybe #6 (Oettinger).

In year 3, Bobrovsky will come up, so he'll be tied for either #4 or #5 again.

In years 4-8, he will almost certainly "fall down" the scale as the cap continues to rise. By year 8, him being 12 or 15 in the league would probably be within the realm of possibility.

 

[seanlinden]

This is the best argument against long term contracts for goalies that I've seen yet, and completely agree. Playing devil's advocate to look from a franchise POV, it could also be argued the other way. There's no guarantee that Swayman will be a top 3 goalie in the league for a long time. There's plenty of examples of goalies that haven't lived up to the hype long term out there or have had injury issues that hampered their performance. I think both sides would benefit from a shorter term contract at this point.

Correct... and for the record, If i was a B's fan, I'd be wholly against signing Swayman for 8 years, just like I was wholly against the Saros contract, and will be wholly against the eventual Shesterkin contract.

That being said, it's important to remember that there's a person on the other side of this, and that person is looking out for his best financial interest.

 

[Peasy]

I think Swayman's contract demands are due to him not believing in his own ability. He won't sign a one year deal or a bridge deal because he knows he's not a top 5 goalie in the league and not having Ullmark to help offset his workload will expose him. He wants to get paid now with max term so he's got job security and a boat anchor of a contract that the Bruins know they'll regret.

I really doubt Boston wants to give him a 1 year or 2 year deal and walk him to fa with an exploding cap.

I think swayman is fine with a 2 or 8 year deal. Probably doesn't want to fall anywhere in the middle of that.

 

[Over the volcano]

And honestly this is all why I’m surprised that they are talking 8 instead of 4 years.

Rumor was they started with 4 year offer and he was insulted by it

 

[WarriorofTime]

People keep bringing up goalie contracts but the goalie market is effed and Swayman realizes it. Top goalies are underpaid right now.

 

[Armourboy]

People keep bringing up goalie contracts but the goalie market is effed and Swayman realizes it. Top goalies are underpaid right now.

They may be but goalies have much the same problem that running backs have in the NFL ( although for different reasons ), they are volatile.

Whether he or any other goalie likes it or not the track record for these guys is not that great. For every Rinne that played well through an entire contract there are probably two others that fell apart. That ratio hasn't exactly been stellar in recent years.

The same reason they are paid less is the same reason they return less in trades. It's not GM's aren't being pretty consistent across the board when it comes to goalies. In fact I think outside of the very best they will continue to struggle to get it even as the cap goes up.

I think teams are getting really close to believing they need two good goalies to cut down on games and I think that means while the base average for goalies probably goes up, those making big bucks might actually shrink. Wouldn't be shocked to see that most teams over the next several years will be running two guys making 5-6 million each rather than 1 guy making 10 and the other making 1.5 - 2.

 

[wintersej]

It makes very little sense for Jeremy Swayman to take the risk of going 4 years.

Based on what he's proven thus far, there are undoubtedly multiple teams out there that would happily do a $9m x 8 year contract, hoping that when they're ready to contend in 2-3 years, he'll be a premier established goalie secured for the duration of their contention window. Lewis Gross would probably know, given that Swayman remains free to talk to any team.

Lets say the 4-year deal is $6.5m. You're talking about $72m vs $26m. It would be grossly irresponsble for an agent to leave $46m on the table at such a critical junction in his career.

Yes, Swayman is free to talk to any other teams and they can offer an offer sheet if they would like. Crickets. There are no 9m offers coming.

And the upside for Swayman is getting another 8 year deal at 29 years old. Instead of hitting UFA again at 33. Just like Helly. Just like Saros. And just like Shesterkin will be signing. Do you think all of their agents are grossly irresponsible? The only goalie to go long term as an RFA in the last 10 years is Vasi.

If we assume the cap goes up ~4m a year, in 4 years the equivalent to the Helly/Saros level deals would be worth over 8x10m AAV.

Option 1:
4x6.5 + 8x10 = 106m

Option 2:
8x8 + ??? ... do we think that Swayman will be getting a 4x10 deal at 33 years old?

All the other top goalies for the last 10 years (aside from Vasi) have done a shorter term deal to take them to their late 20s to cash in again when they have proven more. The maturity and aging curves for goalies just doesn't match up with the CBA timelines like they do for skaters.

 

[WarriorofTime]

They may be but goalies have much the same problem that running backs have in the NFL ( although for different reasons ), they are volatile.

Whether he or any other goalie likes it or not the track record for these guys is not that great. For every Rinne that played well through an entire contract there are probably two others that fell apart. That ratio hasn't exactly been stellar in recent years.

The same reason they are paid less is the same reason they return less in trades. It's not GM's aren't being pretty consistent across the board when it comes to goalies. In fact I think outside of the very best they will continue to struggle to get it even as the cap goes up.

I think teams are getting really close to believing they need two good goalies to cut down on games and I think that means while the base average for goalies probably goes up, those making big bucks might actually shrink. Wouldn't be shocked to see that most teams over the next several years will be running two guys making 5-6 million each rather than 1 guy making 10 and the other making 1.5 - 2.

RBs are easily replaceable. One goes down, his backup will give 80 % of the production so paying one doesn’t make sense. This was somewhat analogous in the big pad era when everyone league wide has really high save percentages. It’s not true in the current game with lower save percentage. Crossing your fingers on a goalie isn’t likely to be as successful. Look at the teams that went deep in the postseason. Not just the Cup winners. Goaltending is a huge X Factor in the present 2020s era NHL. Swayman realizes it. GMs are a bit slow on the uptake.

 

[wintersej]

They may be but goalies have much the same problem that running backs have in the NFL ( although for different reasons ), they are volatile.

Whether he or any other goalie likes it or not the track record for these guys is not that great. For every Rinne that played well through an entire contract there are probably two others that fell apart. That ratio hasn't exactly been stellar in recent years.

The same reason they are paid less is the same reason they return less in trades. It's not GM's aren't being pretty consistent across the board when it comes to goalies. In fact I think outside of the very best they will continue to struggle to get it even as the cap goes up.

I think teams are getting really close to believing they need two good goalies to cut down on games and I think that means while the base average for goalies probably goes up, those making big bucks might actually shrink. Wouldn't be shocked to see that most teams over the next several years will be running two guys making 5-6 million each rather than 1 guy making 10 and the other making 1.5 - 2.

Volitile and they hit their stride later than skaters and generally have less track record to point to at 25 years old than the equivalent skater. When you are trying to prove you are one of the handful of goalies that can be consistent that's makes it tough. Which is why only Vasi has had a long term RFA deal in over a decade.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It makes very little sense for Jeremy Swayman to take the risk of going 4 years.

Based on what he's proven thus far, there are undoubtedly multiple teams out there that would happily do a $9m x 8 year contract, hoping that when they're ready to contend in 2-3 years, he'll be a premier established goalie secured for the duration of their contention window. Lewis Gross would probably know, given that Swayman remains free to talk to any team.

Lets say the 4-year deal is $6.5m. You're talking about $72m vs $26m. It would be grossly irresponsble for an agent to leave $46m on the table at such a critical junction in his career.

I think there's a little doubt here.

 

[Armourboy]

RBs are easily replaceable. One goes down, his backup will give 80 % of the production so paying one doesn’t make sense. This was somewhat analogous in the big pad era when everyone league wide has really high save percentages. It’s not true in the current game with lower save percentage. Crossing your fingers on a goalie isn’t likely to be as successful. Look at the teams that went deep in the postseason. Not just the Cup winners. Goaltending is a huge X Factor in the present 2020s era NHL. Swayman realizes it. GMs are a bit slow on the uptake.

Sure it is an X factor, it always has been, but I think what you are going to find from a GM perspective is that rather than putting all of their eggs in one basket they are going to put a bit more into multiple baskets and then roll with whoever is playing best.

I think the future of goaltending is what you saw in Boston last season. GM's are going to spread that same money out over a couple of guys. I think the idea of a highly paid goalie is going to be a thing of the past here pretty soon mainly because it is putting all of your eggs in one basket.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

People keep bringing up goalie contracts but the goalie market is effed and Swayman realizes it. Top goalies are underpaid right now.

It must really irk good/great goalies to see things like the Guenther contract and not be able to play in that world. But thems the breaks.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Sure it is an X factor, it always has been, but I think what you are going to find from a GM perspective is that rather than putting all of their eggs in one basket they are going to put a bit more into multiple baskets and then roll with whoever is playing best.

I think the future of goaltending is what you saw in Boston last season. GM's are going to spread that same money out over a couple of guys. I think the idea of a highly paid goalie is going to be a thing of the past here pretty soon mainly because it is putting all of your eggs in one basket.

We’ll see.. I’m predicting more of a pendulum swing back. I think GMs are still in 2014 mode but if you go back ten years earlier than that, you’d say goaltending was being overvalued. Multiple number 1 picks etc. I think the never draft a goalie before the third round, never commit big cap dollars, hope something works out has become the outdated model. That was Kyle Dubas’s philosophy in Toronto and it blew up in their face every year.

 

[FiveTacos]

Heck, if Swayman was on a team like Anaheim, Chicago, San Jose, Detroit, Columbus, or any other "up & comer"; they'd probably happily "bet on potential" and fork over $9m x 8 for Swayman...

Depends on what else they have, whether it's good prospects in net or lots of talented young players to sign in the coming years. Or both. It's not a no brainer.

A young goalie who you can truly build a Cup contending team philosophy around is rare and easily worth a big investment .... But I'm not sure Swayman is like a young Brodeur or Roy in that way. And if he is, then Boston should pay him whatever the hell he wants and deal away other players to make it work if necessary.