The bright side

[Bandit]

I think the offense falls apart because of poor positioning, in that dirty old triangle, for second and third attemps on attack. The onus is on the forwards without the puck. DK was a guy who went there alot. Net presence. Persistence. One of the Justin Williams talents. I need more than a flyby. Don't we have a guy like that in the system? One reason for the balance of positional problems is I think the Old guys don't trust the Defense yet. Muck it up boys.

Mersch seems to be that guy. Not that a rookie is the answer, but he plays to those strengths.

 

[mrkolice]

So Kopitar is a good Center, that can play all facets of the game. We know that.

What exactly did you point out ?

Where is the Quote of Sutter saying "I am making Kopitar play passive and Defensive" Or "the system is making Kopitar play this way" ?

You pointed out a Quote that actually helps my argument. Since Sutter knows Kopitar can play all three facets of the game, there should be no excuse for Kopitar to be so passive in the offensive zone.

another quote, dustin brown about kopi, 6/7/2014:

"He's always had the scoring ability, both goal-scoring and obviously playmaking ability," Brown said. "I think there's a reason he doesn't score 90 to 100 points like he's probably capable of doing, and part of it is the way we play. If there's one thing he doesn't do, it's cheat on the offensive side of the puck, and that's why he's up for the Selke. I think you put him on another team or in a different system, he probably has a lot more points, but again that's what makes us successful is we have our best players buy into our system. As a result, he might not score as many but we're sitting here in June playing."

http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/201...ings-anze-kopitar-getting-overdue-recognition

I'll do one better, here some logic for you.

Since Kopitar adheres to this strict Hierarchy as you called it. By now Sutter would have laid the wood on Kopitar about (GENERATE MORE OFFENSE DAMMIT). Kopitar being the good soldier would have responded yes ?

Logic dictates that.

I think Kopitar is just a player that to his own detriment is unselfish. He needs to shoot more, and be aggressive like he was in 09-10, 11-10, Only person stopping him, is himself.

i understand your opinion and i think it's a legitimate point of view, many ppl here share it. sadly there are only two ways to empirically test the question we're discussing: 1. sutter leaves or 2. kopi leaves. i hope none of that happens, but that's the only way to evaluate how kopi performs under a different coach, or system, or structure if you wish, as he still has some good years ahead of him. anyhow, i believe that dustin brown was right in the quote i gave: kopi's personal performance would be more visible and very probably better in a different system as lak is playing under sutter.

 

[theMajor]

Ive always believed that Kopi's play is largely, if not completely determined by Sutter's system. call me crazy but we've never had the luxury of seeing him play under an offensive-minded coach. I realize Im in the extreme minority here and have nothing concrete to back up my beliefs but oh well

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

another quote, dustin brown about kopi, 6/7/2014:

"He's always had the scoring ability, both goal-scoring and obviously playmaking ability," Brown said. "I think there's a reason he doesn't score 90 to 100 points like he's probably capable of doing, and part of it is the way we play. If there's one thing he doesn't do, it's cheat on the offensive side of the puck, and that's why he's up for the Selke. I think you put him on another team or in a different system, he probably has a lot more points, but again that's what makes us successful is we have our best players buy into our system. As a result, he might not score as many but we're sitting here in June playing."

http://espn.go.com/nhl/playoffs/201...ings-anze-kopitar-getting-overdue-recognition



i understand your opinion and i think it's a legitimate point of view, many ppl here share it. sadly there are only two ways to empirically test the question we're discussing: 1. sutter leaves or 2. kopi leaves. i hope none of that happens, but that's the only way to evaluate how kopi performs under a different coach, or system, or structure if you wish, as he still has some good years ahead of him. anyhow, i believe that dustin brown was right in the quote i gave: kopi's personal performance would be more visible and very probably better in a different system as lak is playing under sutter.

So, what about before Sutter?

Kopitar's best offensive year was under Terry Murray.

He's had 4 different coaches, mostly similar results, and I don't think there were any pretenses about the Kings being a defensive team until after T Murray's arrival.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Ive always believed that Kopi's play is largely, if not completely determined by Sutter's system. call me crazy but we've never had the luxury of seeing him play under an offensive-minded coach. I realize Im in the extreme minority here and have nothing concrete to back up my beliefs but oh well

Crawford?

Guys Kopitar isn't some rookie that started in Sutter's system, he's been in the league for almost a decade, and has flourished under defensive coaches. He put up lesser numbers and bigger minuses under offensive coach Crawford, albeit with a lesser team, but though I want to agree he'd be good for a few more points in a 'more offensive' system, I don't think the places he's played are as stifling as is being suggested. Do they suppress team scoring? I think there's a lot of evidence to that, but not to the extent that he's some latent 100-point scorer being sidetracked by coaching systems.

Edit: and to be clear I love Kopitar, I can't believe I'm having to speak against him here. I'm the guy that argued he should put up 90 with this lineup. But he's not being oppressed. Remember he has a personal goal of PPG as per that Slovenian interview, so even he can't believe that he's being held down significantly.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Do the people claiming Kopitar is simply playing within the team's system actually watch the game and pay attention to Kopitar?

I didn't know the current system calls for Kopitar to give up the puck so easily, because one of his biggest strengths has deteriorated and Kopitar has become a timid player who can easily get bumped off of the puck.

He used to be a bull in hanging onto the puck, fending off opponents and protecting the puck while creating plays. That part of his game is now gone. Essentially, he's become Michal Handzus.

 

[theMajor]

Crawford was offensive minded but he was a **** coach in general so I try to forget about him and the dark days he was here. I dont think Murray's or Sutter's style of coaching 'stifled' Kopi per say, but they both implemented a system that forced him to be extremely responsible on both sides of the puck, and it shows. I dont even know why we're still fighting about Kopi anyway so Ill cut myself off here

 

[Kurrilino]

Do the people claiming Kopitar is simply playing within the team's system actually watch the game and pay attention to Kopitar?

I didn't know the current system calls for Kopitar to give up the puck so easily, because one of his biggest strengths has deteriorated and Kopitar has become a timid player who can easily get bumped off of the puck.

He used to be a bull in hanging onto the puck, fending off opponents and protecting the puck while creating plays. That part of his game is now gone. Essentially, he's become Michal Handzus.

Kopitar has incredible talent and outstanding hockey sence.
90 Points should be a basic requirement for him.
How much do you think does he likes that WWE board wrestling that goes on since Murray ????

I absolutely understand that he simply shuts down and just does what the coach asks him to do. Nothing more nothing less.
Same with all other skilled hockey players in our team.

After 2 cups they simply don't care anymore.
I guess everyone remembers what this kind of hockey did to Frolov.
Kopitar and Brown are the next ones. Williams is already done.

 

[mrkolice]

So, what about before Sutter?

Kopitar's best offensive year was under Terry Murray.

He's had 4 different coaches, mostly similar results, and I don't think there were any pretenses about the Kings being a defensive team until after T Murray's arrival.

that's a good question, give me some time to go through the data. when did kopi become a complete player, when did his learning curve start to flat? i think it's fair to analyse from that point on.

 

[KINGS17]

Do the people claiming Kopitar is simply playing within the team's system actually watch the game and pay attention to Kopitar?

I didn't know the current system calls for Kopitar to give up the puck so easily, because one of his biggest strengths has deteriorated and Kopitar has become a timid player who can easily get bumped off of the puck.

He used to be a bull in hanging onto the puck, fending off opponents and protecting the puck while creating plays. That part of his game is now gone. Essentially, he's become Michal Handzus.

Obviously, some people think this is the case, but their logic escapes me.

Did the system become so much more restrictive in 2014-15 than it was in 2013-14 that Kopitar had 100 fewer shots? I don't think so. What has changed is either Kopitar's ability or willingness to get to the middle of the ice in the offensive zone and pay the price to score goals in the NHL.

It's a good thing Dean didn't go nuts on his contract last offseason.

 

[KINGS17]

Kopitar has incredible talent and outstanding hockey sence.
90 Points should be a basic requirement for him.
How much do you think does he likes that WWE board wrestling that goes on since Murray ????

I absolutely understand that he simply shuts down and just does what the coach asks him to do. Nothing more nothing less.
Same with all other skilled hockey players in our team.

After 2 cups they simply don't care anymore.
I guess everyone remembers what this kind of hockey did to Frolov.
Kopitar and Brown are the next ones. Williams is already done.

In the NHL winning board battles is where all offense starts. You have to win the board battle at the halfwall and at the point to get it out of your own end. That's where the transition begins.

If there isn't enough speed on the rush to carry the puck into the offensive zone, guess what? It's another board battle. These aren't international size rinks where the boards are 50 miles from the net. Winning a board battle generates immediate offense, if you are willing and able to take the puck to the middle after the battle is won.

 

[mrkolice]

Crawford?

Guys Kopitar isn't some rookie that started in Sutter's system, he's been in the league for almost a decade, and has flourished under defensive coaches. He put up lesser numbers and bigger minuses under offensive coach Crawford, albeit with a lesser team, but though I want to agree he'd be good for a few more points in a 'more offensive' system, I don't think the places he's played are as stifling as is being suggested. Do they suppress team scoring? I think there's a lot of evidence to that, but not to the extent that he's some latent 100-point scorer being sidetracked by coaching systems.

Edit: and to be clear I love Kopitar, I can't believe I'm having to speak against him here. I'm the guy that argued he should put up 90 with this lineup. But he's not being oppressed. Remember he has a personal goal of PPG as per that Slovenian interview, so even he can't believe that he's being held down significantly.

just reread your post & found this little gem, it might be interesting to post his full quote again, i guess that this was your reference (interview with Kopi is from 24.08.2015):

Q: "Goals for the next season?"

A: "I want to win the cup. Personal goals are not important, I'm trying to look at the big picture. I'm aware that - to achieve this goal - I'll have to play as it's expected from me. My stats are not important, even if I still haven't achieved my youngster goal, one point per game."

http://ekipa24.si/clanek/hokej-na-l...z-anzetom-kopitarjem-zame-to-ni-nikarksen-uau (in slovenian)

kurrilino: motivation issues? i can't buy that. some guys do get lazy after winning, but kopi is a different breed, he's tasted blood and he wants more.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Kopitar has incredible talent and outstanding hockey sence.
90 Points should be a basic requirement for him.
How much do you think does he likes that WWE board wrestling that goes on since Murray ????

I absolutely understand that he simply shuts down and just does what the coach asks him to do. Nothing more nothing less.
Same with all other skilled hockey players in our team.

After 2 cups they simply don't care anymore.
I guess everyone remembers what this kind of hockey did to Frolov.
Kopitar and Brown are the next ones. Williams is already done.

I'm glad you're admitting his talent, but you're not just playing shut-down defense if you're +34. Yes, yes, context, but that means you're on the ice for 34 more goals...

that's a good question, give me some time to go through the data. when did kopi become a complete player, when did his learning curve start to flat? i think it's fair to analyse from that point on.

I think that's subjective but a lot of folks would probably agree about halfway through TM's first year? That was also the first year he was a "+" player, and put up a string of near-PPG seasons. He only got better at possession...and things didn't start slowing down at all until last year, yet I think that is overstated, being as he was on his usual (actually, slightly better than) career pace after his slow start. It seems like the problems people have right now is that his shots are down and folks are complaining he's too passive along the outside of the rink...that last one is obviously harder to quantify.

I think his demise is overstated if not flat out wrong, and a 2 game sample size at the beginning of this season isn't enough to convince me otherwise.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't see a quote about him buying into the team/system first can be used against him or as an argument against more offensive production from him. EVERY TEAM in the NHL plays by a 'system'. We aren't playing the "SEND ALL THE DMEN IN" like Calgary or counterpunch pond hockey with the Hawks, Lightning, Sharks. Would that help Kopitar's production? Crawford's system says otherwise, but I suppose so.

You know, here's something that may be interesting to try, and I'll look at it tonight--by what percentage do players, after playing with other teams, see their points cut back with the Kings? I'll have to be a little selective--i.e. not using Richards' last year--but mayyyybe, and it's a stretch, we could apply that to Kopi as a very rudimentary 'projection.' Offhand, it might be fun to look at Williams, Carter. Gaborik to a lesser degree.

 

[KINGS17]

I'm glad you're admitting his talent, but you're not just playing shut-down defense if you're +34. Yes, yes, context, but that means you're on the ice for 34 more goals...



I think that's subjective but a lot of folks would probably agree about halfway through TM's first year? That was also the first year he was a "+" player, and put up a string of near-PPG seasons. He only got better at possession...and things didn't start slowing down at all until last year, yet I think that is overstated, being as he was on his usual (actually, slightly better than) career pace after his slow start. It seems like the problems people have right now is that his shots are down and folks are complaining he's too passive along the outside of the rink...that last one is obviously harder to quantify.

I think his demise is overstated if not flat out wrong, and a 2 game sample size at the beginning of this season isn't enough to convince me otherwise.

Having the ability to put up 20 goals and 60 points isn't what I would call "demise", but it isn't the stuff of 8-year, $9M+ AAV contracts either.

It's not a 2 game sample size. Kopitar has 16 goals in the last 90 games played by the Kings. Some would call that the start of a trend. In the first two games (where he should have an abudance of energy), I see very little difference in his body language or the way he is playing overall from last season. Far too passive and he is seemingly unwilling to take the bull by the horns.

I am sure at some point he will have a spurt of productivity and everyone will think all is well, but that happened last season too.

 

[KINGS17]

I don't see a quote about him buying into the team/system first can be used against him or as an argument against more offensive production from him. EVERY TEAM in the NHL plays by a 'system'. We aren't playing the "SEND ALL THE DMEN IN" like Calgary or counterpunch pond hockey with the Hawks, Lightning, Sharks. Would that help Kopitar's production? Crawford's system says otherwise, but I suppose so.

You know, here's something that may be interesting to try, and I'll look at it tonight--by what percentage do players, after playing with other teams, see their points cut back with the Kings? I'll have to be a little selective--i.e. not using Richards' last year--but mayyyybe, and it's a stretch, we could apply that to Kopi as a very rudimentary 'projection.' Offhand, it might be fun to look at Williams, Carter. Gaborik to a lesser degree.

It's going to be tough for you to factor in the consideration of when a player is actually in his offensive prime with that type of analysis.

 

[theMajor]

relevant quotes from Sutter

“Yeah, that doesn’t bother him. Like, he can pass it. I don’t think so,†Sutter said when asked whether Kopitar tailors his game to those he plays alongside. “If you look at it since we’ve been here, the first Cup, [Kopitar’s linemates were] Brownie and Willie, so he played with two righties. So he’s passing to one guy who’s playing his off-side a lot, if you look at that. After Gabby came, a lot of it was Gabby-Brownie, so they would probably be primarily suited. His assists or his distribution hasn’t dropped at all, if you look at it. It’s his goals that dropped last year. Hey, with Kopi, you just want him to be a little more almost selfish. Shoot more and beat the guy more – that sort of thing. Sometimes you watch Kopi, he almost works harder in his own zone than he does in the offensive zone. It means you’re an ultimte team guy.â€

 

[KINGS17]

relevant quotes from Sutter

I agree with the bolded part, and I am sure Kopitar is a team guy, but yes he does need to work harder in the offensive zone.

This has been his problem for quite some time. He takes a break in the offensive zone and when he is on the power play instead of asserting himself.

 

[theMajor]

I think everyone can agree on that. I just think its interesting that Sutter sees it and acknowledges it and yet he puts its in a positive light instead of harping on him. the load Kopi carries is often understated so I can understand why he 'takes breaks' in the O zone, as frustrating as it is to see. hopefully he is able to bear down this year and shut up the naysayers

 

[KINGS17]

I think everyone can agree on that. I just think its interesting that Sutter sees it and acknowledges it and yet he puts its in a positive light instead of harping on him. the load Kopi carries is often understated so I can understand why he 'takes breaks' in the O zone, as frustrating as it is to see. hopefully he is able to bear down this year and shut up the naysayers

Yeah, hopefully he whips his ass into shape and does whatever it is he needs to do to earn the type of contract his agent is seeking for him.

Stating the facts and providing evidence (as has been done over and over again during the summer) regarding what direction the offensive production of players approaching 30 normally takes, does not make you a naysayer. I see nothing in Kopitar's approach to preparing for a season or his play last season, or thus far this season to suggest that he will be an anomoly.

 

[mrkolice]

I think that's subjective but a lot of folks would probably agree about halfway through TM's first year? That was also the first year he was a "+" player, and put up a string of near-PPG seasons. He only got better at possession...and things didn't start slowing down at all until last year, yet I think that is overstated, being as he was on his usual (actually, slightly better than) career pace after his slow start. It seems like the problems people have right now is that his shots are down and folks are complaining he's too passive along the outside of the rink...that last one is obviously harder to quantify.

I think his demise is overstated if not flat out wrong, and a 2 game sample size at the beginning of this season isn't enough to convince me otherwise.

just an idea. one simple way for a rough test, empirically decent. two variables, one correlation: 1. kopi's corsi 2. coach's strategy (defensive vs. offensive). #1 is easy to get, #2 is kind of arbitrary. for #2 some real and unbiased experts are needed (at least 5) to give their opinions, plus a scale (at least 1-7, 4 being neutral). i can't materialize that, maybe you could.

 

[theMajor]

Stating the facts and providing evidence (as has been done over and over again during the summer) regarding what direction the offensive production of players approaching 30 normally takes, does not make you a naysayer. I see nothing in Kopitar's approach to preparing for a season or his play last season, or thus far this season to suggest that he will be an anomoly.

the naysayer comment wasnt directed at you, although you are a proponent of Kopi's decline. normally players (read:forwards) dont start to decline until their early 30's, and truly elite players do not seriously decline in their play until their late 30's. its entirely to early too be suggesting that Kopitar's decline has started. last season was an anomaly in itself both for the Kings and for Kopitar

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It's going to be tough for you to factor in the consideration of when a player is actually in his offensive prime with that type of analysis.

Totally agree, I'm not trying to go overboard with it, just a simple overview.

Having the ability to put up 20 goals and 60 points isn't what I would call "demise", but it isn't the stuff of 8-year, $9M+ AAV contracts either.

It's not a 2 game sample size. Kopitar has 16 goals in the last 90 games played by the Kings. Some would call that the start of a trend. In the first two games (where he should have an abudance of energy), I see very little difference in his body language or the way he is playing overall from last season. Far too passive and he is seemingly unwilling to take the bull by the horns.

I am sure at some point he will have a spurt of productivity and everyone will think all is well, but that happened last season too.

It wasn't directed at you (this time ). I just think the general discussion on these boards has led to an overwhelming negative view of Kopitar when really the discussion is about whether he can continue being awesome.

And the Sutter quote echoes my view, let's not confuse lack of goals for lack of production.

Regardless, this is a PGT from the last game, let's try to bring it back to that level as we have another game tonight

 

[damacles1156]

the naysayer comment wasnt directed at you, although you are a proponent of Kopi's decline. normally players (read:forwards) dont start to decline until their early 30's, and truly elite players do not seriously decline in their play until their late 30's. its entirely to early too be suggesting that Kopitar's decline has started. last season was an anomaly in itself both for the Kings and for Kopitar

This is not true.

The data shows that you are rolling the dice after age 32 with every single NHL player, even elite one's.

Wayne #99 had massive drop off in production after the age of 29. Just because a (handful) of Elite players are productive in their late 30's doesn't mean that it will happen to everyone.

The Numbers are overwhelming in favor of huge production drop off's after the age of 32.

 

[theMajor]

This is not true.

The data shows that you are rolling the dice after age 32 with every single NHL player, even elite one's.

Wayne #99 had massive drop off in production after the age of 29. Just because a (handful) of Elite players are productive in their late 30's doesn't mean that it will happen to everyone.

The Numbers are overwhelming in favor of huge production drop off's after the age of 32.

because the GOAT's production fell off after he hit 29 doesnt really mean anything, thats anecdotal evidence.

this article is pretty interesting
http://www.cbc.ca/news/when-nhl-players-peak-hockey-metrics-1.2646054


and another

http://alongtheboards.com/2015/09/peak-decline-elite-nhl-forwards/

the huge drop off you referred to isnt quite as 'huge' as some make it out to be