OT: The Avalounge: No Witty Title Available (mod warning in OP)

[Avsboy]

Highly unlikely it would go nuclear… any sign of that would have massive international cooperation to shut it down immediately.

Putin is unhinged and unmoored from international cooperation. In a nuclear war it can come down to who launches first and the US couldn't be caught flat footed. If Putin invades a NATO country, yeah I think it's nuclear within 1-2 weeks.

 

[S E P H]

Russia and China probably wouldn't be allied. China would keep its hands clean in any protracted war with NATO countries. Any war would go nuclear pretty quickly too.

Russia and China have gotten quite close the last ten years or so. I wouldn't call them USA/GB level of allies, but closer than they have ever been.

 

[henchman21]

Putin is unhinged and unmoored from international cooperation. In a nuclear war it can come down to who launches first and the US couldn't be caught flat footed. If Putin invades a NATO country, yeah I think it's nuclear within 1-2 weeks.

That’s not how things things work…

 

[Avsboy]

That’s not how things things work…

Has there ever been a hot war between nuclear Russia and nuclear US? No. No one knows what could happen. The only hope is that it becomes a Cuban Missile Crisis like standoff if Russia threatens to invade NATO countries. I think Putin will not invade a NATO country.

 

[henchman21]

Has there ever been a hot war between nuclear Russia and nuclear US? No. No one knows what could happen. The only hope is that it becomes a Cuban Missile Crisis like standoff if Russia threatens to invade NATO countries. I think Putin will not invade a NATO country.

Just because there has never been a hot war, doesn’t mean that it will go nuclear right away nor would anybody be caught flat footed.

 

[Balthazar]

Highly unlikely it would go nuclear… any sign of that would have massive international cooperation to shut it down immediately.

Gotta have a sign first though. IMO our best chance would be someone from Putin's inner circle stopping him.

That’s not how things things work…

Since there's no precedent, nobody knows how it would work.

 

[Avsboy]

Just because there has never been a hot war, doesn’t mean that it will go nuclear right away nor would anybody be caught flat footed.

Pre-emptive nuclear strike - Wikipedia

 

[henchman21]

Gotta have a sign first though. IMO our best chance would be someone from Putin's inner circle stopping him.


Since there's no precedent, nobody knows how it would work.

There are always signs… intelligence is pretty strong for instances like these. Especially today.

We’ve been through nuclear crisis before and atomic weapons have been used. There is precedent to handle it.

 

[henchman21]

Pre-emptive nuclear strike - Wikipedia

Wikipedia…

We have satellites and intelligence 24/7 now. We’d know any instance of a move towards nuclear and work the thwart it. Either before (most likely) or after with missile defense. Which would lead to Russia being shut down by every country in the world immediately. It is suicide and not mutually assured.

 

[Foppberg]

Nuclear war would be such a 2022 thing to happen. Ever since 2016 every year has been "think last year was bad? Try this."

 

[wayninja]

Unless Russia has a swift alternative (they might though), removing them is essentially an act of war. This will escalate.

 

[Balthazar]

Unless Russia has a swift alternative (they might though), removing them is essentially an act of war. This will escalate.

How can one possibly have a swift alternative?

 

[henchman21]

Unless Russia has a swift alternative (they might though), removing them is essentially an act of war. This will escalate.

They have multiple other avenues and they are not completely off swift… specific banks for specific things.

 

[Foppberg]

Unless Russia has a swift alternative (they might though), removing them is essentially an act of war. This will escalate.

At this point it's a selection of certain banks that are removed from SWIFT, but yeah. Shit'll get real now, as if it wasn't already.

 

[henchman21]

How can one possibly have a swift alternative?

There are at least 4 alternatives and Russia has been involved in developing them for years.

 

[wayninja]

This may be an unhinged conspiracy theory, but it's odd to me that Ukraine hasn't taken steps to disable/cut off oil exports from Russia (pipelines).

That seems like the easiest way to force western Europe's hand in getting involved, but maybe they think doing that will anger potential allies?

 

[Avsboy]

Wikipedia…

We have satellites and intelligence 24/7 now. We’d know any instance of a move towards nuclear and work the thwart it. Either before (most likely) or after with missile defense. Which would lead to Russia being shut down by every country in the world immediately. It is suicide and not mutually assured.

Wikipedia is right about most stuff, the community has strong experts, editors, guidelines and oversight. No amount of intelligence can penetrate Putin's mind, and there are no checks and balances in his country against his use of nuclear weapons. Every country in the world has already shut down trade and relations with Russia and they may push Putin to more irrational acts vs. NATO directly. I doubt he would destroy the world including Russia, but he could. I'm confident a war with NATO would amount to nuclear suicide, and quickly.

Missile defense? I don't think missile defense exists vs. hypersonic ICBMs, and detonation over populated areas would still be a disaster. I've heard of "scalar wave technology" to knock missiles out of the air, but that's considered a conspiracy theory.

 

[wayninja]

How can one possibly have a swift alternative?

It's called SPFS

 

[Balthazar]

There are at least 4 alternatives and Russia has been involved in developing them for years.

But they are completely useless if the bank at the other end doesn't recognize it.

 

[Foppberg]

How can one possibly have a swift alternative?

It's called NordVPN.

 

[wayninja]

They have multiple other avenues and they are not completely off swift… specific banks for specific things.

Right, which is why (IMO) this move is now being considered. It sends a signal to their various populations that they are "serious" about "getting tough" with Russia while at the same time allowing enough breathing room that it's not devastating for Russia and forcing them to commit further/retaliate.

It's not a bad move, but it feels more calculated to appease political interests domestically than to actually force Russia to withdraw (or do something nuts).

 

[Snow Arc]

Continue here:

PSA: So far the discussion about the Russia-Ukraine war here has been informational, however, if it at all goes sideways we'll have to can that discussion because it is political. So just be wary of that. Carry on.

It makes me sad, is all.

 

[henchman21]

But they are completely useless if the bank at the other end doesn't recognize it.

CIPS is pretty widely used and understood. And you don’t NEED swift to make international transfers… they just make it a shit ton easier.

 

[wayninja]

But they are completely useless if the bank at the other end doesn't recognize it.

4oo users (banks) of SPFS is not useless. It's not nearly as good, but far from useless.

Then you have to wonder what China is willing to do to support Russia under the table...

 

[henchman21]

Right, which is why (IMO) this move is now being considered. It sends a signal to their various populations that they are "serious" about "getting tough" with Russia while at the same time allowing enough breathing room that it's not devastating for Russia and forcing them to commit further/retaliate.

It's not a bad move, but it feels more calculated to appease political interests domestically than to actually force Russia to withdraw (or do something nuts).

It seems rather toothless in the end to me, but maybe there will be an impact. I don’t see it doing much to Russia either way.

Russia will continue to amp up in Ukraine because retreating now would be a huge black eye to Putin. But escalation outside Ukraine is very unlikely right now. Russia is having a tough time with a weak military. Taking on the strongest forces in the world alongside Ukraine would be incredibly stupid. Putin is a lot of things, stupid isn’t one of them.