OT: The Avalounge: No Witty Title Available (mod warning in OP)

[Foppberg]

I don't think Putin expected this level of response from the international community either, or the resilience of Ukraine.

 

[wayninja]

It seems rather toothless in the end to me, but maybe there will be an impact. I don’t see it doing much to Russia either way.

Russia will continue to amp up in Ukraine because retreating now would be a huge black eye to Putin. But escalation outside Ukraine is very unlikely right now. Russia is having a tough time with a weak military. Taking on the strongest forces in the world alongside Ukraine would be incredibly stupid. Putin is a lot of things, stupid isn’t one of them.

A few years ago I would have definitely agreed that Putin is not stupid. That he's clearly one of the craftier leaders of a dangerous country in the entire world.

But I just don't get what Putin's endgame is here. I sort of understand his security concerns with NATO and the proxy state that Ukraine has been for the US, but this invasion seems desperate. Even if he wins, he likely loses long-term. There's some other piece to this that either isn't clear at the moment or the guy has lost it.

 

[henchman21]

I don't think Putin expected this level of response from the international community either, or the resilience of Ukraine.

This is very true. He lost the PR war immediately and Ukraine’s forces have been training since 2014 in a much different manner (more Western style). Ukraine has solid ground defenses and then there is the patriotism that Putin didn’t expect.

 

[henchman21]

A few years ago I would have definitely agreed that Putin is not stupid. That he's clearly one of the craftier leaders of a dangerous country in the entire world.

But I just don't get what Putin's endgame is here. I sort of understand his security concerns with NATO and the proxy state that Ukraine has been for the US, but this invasion seems desperate. Even if he wins, he likely loses long-term. There's some other piece to this that either isn't clear at the moment or the guy has lost it.

My opinion, he wants to pull off another chunk for Ukraine as Russia. He knows he won’t get the whole country (he’ll try though), but his base plan is to offer a ‘compromise’ where Russia annexes eastern Ukraine.

 

[wayninja]

My opinion, he wants to pull off another chunk for Ukraine as Russia. He knows he won’t get the whole country (he’ll try though), but his base plan is to offer a ‘compromise’ where Russia annexes eastern Ukraine.

But he has to know that the consequences to that won't be good for him. Nord stream just got unsanctioned (and sanctioned again) and is likely not going to survive this annexation.

In the long run, this completely sabotages one of Russias most lucrative long term exports (energy). Unless China has made promises to pick up the slack from whatever energy EU decides to boycott, this is a dagger in the Russian economy.

That market vacuum also increases the incentive for the US to fill it, strengthening an enemy (from their perspective) at their loss.

It also exponentially increases the likelihood of new eastern European countries joining NATO.

I guess we are back to an unknown piece, and that piece has to be China.

 

[Foppberg]

This is very true. He lost the PR war immediately and Ukraine’s forces have been training since 2014 in a much different manner (more Western style). Ukraine has solid ground defenses and then there is the patriotism that Putin didn’t expect.

Yup. It's not as easy to brainwash your military when the people you're fighting are basically your cousins, a lot of low morale on the field. Plus Zelensky is turns out, the exact type of leader you want in a war.

 

[henchman21]

But he has to know that the consequences to that won't be good for him. Nord stream just got unsanctioned (and sanctioned again) and is likely not going to survive this annexation.

In the long run, this completely sabotages one of Russias most lucrative long term exports (energy). Unless China has made promises to pick up the slack from whatever energy EU decides to boycott, this is a dagger in the Russian economy.

That market vacuum also increases the incentive for the US to fill it, strengthening an enemy (from their perspective) at their loss.

It also exponentially increases the likelihood of new eastern European countries joining NATO.

I guess we are back to an unknown piece, and that piece has to be China.

Putin has experience with Western short memories… the West kicked, screamed, and sanctioned after Crimea. Then a few years later, the West ‘forgot’ and kept buying from Russia. My guess he is betting that will happen within a couple years after this is over.

 

[Foppberg]

 

[Balthazar]

"Intel from a Ukrainian officer"

Yea I hope this is true but it sounds too much like a typical war propaganda fabricated story

 

[Foppberg]

"Intel from a Ukrainian officer"

Yea I hope this is true but it sounds too much like a typical war propaganda fabricated story

Yeah it's hard to say, and I doubt we'll really know. But it sounds plausible.

 

[Balthazar]

Yeah it's hard to say, and I doubt we'll really know. But it sounds plausible.

Likely the only purpose is to give hope and energy to Ukrainian soldiers. If that was true they probably wouldn't release it to protect their sources.

 

[Balthazar]

 

[henchman21]

If the 20b is in USD, that’s complete BS. War is expensive, but not nearly that expensive. IMO Russia invaded with the idea that they’d have air superiority pretty quickly and with air superiority, you can invade quickly even with modest ground forces. That clearly hasn’t happened. That could cause some strife internally. So possible on some of it.

 

[JLo217]

Anyone see Marco Rubios latest tweet?

 

[Balthazar]

Anyone see Marco Rubios latest tweet?

 

[henchman21]

I think the reference is to the one about refusing and order.

Rubio should really quit tweeting intelligence…

 

[JLo217]

I think the reference is to the one about refusing and order.

Rubio should really quit tweeting intelligence…

Sounds like something specific to me.

 

[Balthazar]

edit

 

[Hennessy]

Hasek has called for the NHL to expel all Russian players.

On another topic, I know propaganda is a part of war, especially so in these times of social media (as it always is), but the glut of it these last few days has been a bit much. It's been fun hearing about the grandma giving Russian soldiers sunflower seeds, Zelenskyy's "I don't need a ride, I need ammunition", or all the "f*ck off" stuff that started with the Russian warship thing, but it just makes me question the veracity of nearly everything coming out of Ukraine.

 

[LOFIN]

Hasek has called for the NHL to expel all Russian players.

As edgy as I am, punishing individuals for the crimes of their regime is not the way to go. That said, should there be a Russian player in the NHL who says this is somehow ok or supports the invasion or something like that, suspend him.

 

[The Merchant]

Putin's desperation is palpable at this point if he's using the nuke card already. Even if Kyiv eventually falls the damage to Putin and his military's image will never be undone. Ukrainians defending their homeland so bravely has got to be one of the most inspiring stories of our lifetimes.

 

[dahrougem2]

As edgy as I am, punishing individuals for the crimes of their regime is not the way to go. That said, should there be a Russian player in the NHL who says this is somehow ok or supports the invasion or something like that, suspend him.

Like I said before in this and other threads, it's truly hypocritical for anyone to call for that stuff. Because a country like the United States has done just as much bad (if not more) as Russia. Yet nobody calls for American players to have their contracts revoked.

 

[henchman21]

Putin's desperation is palpable at this point if he's using the nuke card already. Even if Kyiv eventually falls the damage to Putin and his military's image will never be undone. Ukrainians defending their homeland so bravely has got to be one of the most inspiring stories of our lifetimes.

He’s got to look like he’s coming from a position of strength. It is his kicking and screaming. Strong men can’t look weak, and he looks weak now. A very tricky part for Ukraine and the world is how can they give Russia an out that doesn’t make Putin look weak? Seems absurd, but Putin won’t back out unless he can claim some victory.

 

[5280]

Like I said before in this and other threads, it's truly hypocritical for anyone to call for that stuff. Because a country like the United States has done just as much bad (if not more) as Russia. Yet nobody calls for American players to have their contracts revoked.

The way you are thinking about this is off, though (at least IMO). I wouldn’t say America is infallible, but the general intent of our group over history within regards to our foreign policy is much different than what is going on with Putin and Russia. If America can be blamed for anything, it would be for its own stupidity, and not being “evil” as you say.

 

[Foppberg]

The way you are thinking about this is off, though (at least IMO). I wouldn’t say America is infallible, but the general intent of our group over history within regards to our foreign policy is much different than what is going on with Putin and Russia. If America can be blamed for anything, it would be for its own stupidity, and not being “evil” as you say.

IMO his posts are coming from a place of hurt and personal experience, so it's hard not to have sympathy in that.

At least in my uneducated opinion.