The Athletic - NHL awards watch: Leon Draisaitl leads a fascinating MVP field

[Craig Button]

Marner of Kaprizov for Hart

Kaprizov Mitch Marner Shorthanded Time On Ice | StatMuse

Kirill Kaprizov has been on the ice for 0:12 while shorthanded this season.

www.statmuse.com

Kaprizov Mitch Marner Average Short Handed Time On Ice 2024-2025 | StatMuse

Kirill Kaprizov has spent 0:00 on ice per game while shorthanded this season.

www.statmuse.com

Kaprizov Mitch Marner Takeaway 2024-2025 | StatMuse

Kirill Kaprizov has gotten 9 takeaways this season.

www.statmuse.com

Pretty sure this model values center's more than wingers for defensive metrics because they have more responsibility.

That's only true if they don't know anything about hockey

 

[nowhereman]

Hughes is the answer for both the Hart and Norris

 

[Regal]

Why? It’s reasonable to assume that Makar wins the Norris. He may be having a slightly worse defensive year but he’s having a better offensive year which offsets that. Makar has proven to play at a consistent level whereas I think Hughes utilization is going to show signs of fatigue in the 2nd half. He’s getting overworked due to the current defensive structure of the team and it’s already showing.


Side note: 99% Dom’s models are typically trash though.

Makar’s defensive numbers are slightly better this year. I don’t think I’d say Makar’s been better offensively either given the seasons their top forwards have had and the fact Quinn has a better PPG. I’d say it’s Hughes’ 5v5 play driving that’s the biggest plus in his favour. But it’s close enough that it’s fair to give it to Makar for staying healthy, though the Avs have also just played more games so far.

 

[syz]

How the hell is Shesterkin so high on the Vezina list?

There aren't many good goalies in the NHL anymore so somebody has to fill the list.

 

[JuJu Mobb]

Dom's model...

 

[nonamejay]

Hellebuyck at 9 (Hart) is a joke. Should be 1.

 

[ijuka]

Dom's model...

The main flaw with it, I believe, is how much more it weighs offense over defense. Almost all the good players have massively higher offensive contributions than defensive ones.

Shouldn't the system be normalized so that offensive and defensive contributions both are centered on the average, and deviations are represented as standard deviations from the expectation? That would make far more sense.

Also, the idea of just adding the game scores together the way he's doing is also not exactly statistically valid. It ensures that only the players who have played the exact same number of games are comparable.

My preferred method would be representing every player's scores with both mean and variance parameters, assuming the stat itself is even worthwhile to track.

 

[Craig Ludwig]

Adam Fox on the dumpster fire that is the Rangers? Replace with Hutson on a much improved Habs team, where he is their #1 Dman and logging 23 minutes a game. And yes I am a Habs fan but Hutson has been a huge addition to the team.

 

[NinjaKick]

those damn Germans... what are "they" up to now






aaaaaaaaaaaand I'll show myself out

 

[Regal]

The main flaw with it, I believe, is how much more it weighs offense over defense. Almost all the good players have massively higher offensive contributions than defensive ones.

Shouldn't the system be normalized so that offensive and defensive contributions both are centered on the average, and deviations are represented as standard deviations from the expectation? That would make far more sense.

Also, the idea of just adding the game scores together the way he's doing is also not exactly statistically valid. It ensures that only the players who have played the exact same number of games are comparable.

My preferred method would be representing every player's scores with both mean and variance parameters, assuming the stat itself is even worthwhile to track.

I think it suggests that the best offensive players can have more of an impact over average than the best defensive players, which makes sense. Defense is still more team dependent and less individualistic than offense. GAR charts on evolving hockey use standard deviations above and below average and no one has defensive impacts as high as the highest offensive impacts.

 

[BertMcDrai]

Drai is now:
1st in 5v5 points , 1st in 5v5 goals,1st in 5v5 first assist
1st in goals overall, 1st in GWG
2nd in points and 2nd in PPG, both categories close to first
2nd in +/- also close to first
Top10 in Faceoffs won
Top20 in takeaways

If he keeps this up it could be one of the best seasons in the last 20 years.

Fun fact:
And this with his ppg almost exactly the same as his ppg without McD in the lineup over the last 7 seasons.

 

[kerrabria]

Drai is now:
1st in 5v5 points , 1st in 5v5 goals,1st in 5v5 first assist
1st in goals overall, 1st in GWG
2nd in points and 2nd in PPG, both categories close to first
2nd in +/- also close to first
Top10 in Faceoffs won
Top20 in takeaways

If he keeps this up it could be one of the best seasons in the last 20 years.

Fun fact:
And this with his ppg almost exactly the same as his ppg without McD in the lineup over the last 7 seasons.

Yeah it's a two-horse race between MacKinnon and Draisaitl. They're tied for absolute production, but Drai is scoring more goals, playing more well-rounded hockey, and doing it without an elite linemate or constantly being on the ice with an elite dman.

 

[BertMcDrai]

Yeah it's a two-horse race between MacKinnon and Draisaitl. They're tied for absolute production, but Drai is scoring more goals, playing more well-rounded hockey, and doing it without an elite linemate or constantly being on the ice with an elite dman.

I personally don't think MacK should be in the race...Kuch is scoring at a higher clip, Kaprizov until getting injured had great numbers...even Werenski and Hughes has played better (in my opinion) and should get considerations, the same for Helle.

But the season is still long, if MacK catches fire it's still possible for him.

 

[kerrabria]

Hughes is the answer for both the Hart and Norris

Hughes doesn't even lead defensemen in TOI or EV Points. He doesn't kill penalties, which should be disqualifying for the Norris, and the Canucks aren't going to make the playoffs, which *is* disqualifying for the Hart.
End of.

 

[kerrabria]

I personally don't think MacK should be in the race...Kuch is scoring at a higher clip, Kaprizov until getting injured had great numbers...even Werenski and Hughes has played better (in my opinion) and should get considerations, the same for Helle.

But the season is still long, if MacK catches fire it's still possible for him.

Honestly I forgot about Hellebuyck, I'd give him the nod over MacKinnon. I personally think MacKinnon has too much help, but the production speaks for itself.
RE: Kucherov, I think it's difficult for a winger to grab the Hart when he's nowhere near league-lead in EV Points, and he's stapled to two elite linemates.

 

[BertMcDrai]

Honestly I forgot about Hellebuyck, I'd give him the nod over MacKinnon. I personally think MacKinnon has too much help, but the production speaks for itself.
RE: Kucherov, I think it's difficult for a winger to grab the Hart when he's nowhere near league-lead in EV Points, and he's stapled to two elite linemates.

Kuch is 2nd in 5v5 points behind Drai, MacK is 5th.
MacK is leaching of his insane empty net points, that's why he shouldn't be in the Hart convo imo (at least for now, as he has the potential to go on a heat at some time this season)

xGF% 5v5: Drai is 5th, MacK is 75th, Kuch is 87th.
This is a huge difference.

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

Drai at the moment

 

[benfranklin]

Hart reasoning seems pretty meh.

 

[GhostfaceWu]

More context in the article, he applies other criteria to narrow the list based on shorthanded ice time and how often they matchup against opposing top players. I presume this is based on how we know voters tend to vote on these things.

He mentions that both Drai and Kaprizov would be on the list without those criteria.

How much time on the pk did Matthews have the last two times he was getting votes for the selke?

 

[Toby91ca]

I won't dispute a lot of the names being thrown around, but I'd sort of leave it at a high level discussion at this point without digging into a ton of data and pointing why "x" should be the favourite over "y"....have only played just over half the year....I think the serious discussion should start at game 70 or so.....unless someone completely runs away with it before then.

 

[Regal]

Hughes doesn't even lead defensemen in TOI or EV Points. He doesn't kill penalties, which should be disqualifying for the Norris, and the Canucks aren't going to make the playoffs, which *is* disqualifying for the Hart.
End of.

Those are some pretty dumb reasons other than the playoffs

 

[PuckG]

Hart reasoning seems pretty meh.

If so, then you can imagine how much worse the Hart reasoning is for any other player right now.

 

[snag]

Those are some pretty dumb reasons other than the playoffs

Norris Trophy is Awarded to the "defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position"...and not being a penalty killing defenseman is a dumb reason for exclusion?

If you aren't playing in all situations, you aren't all-round.

 

[Regal]

Norris Trophy is Awarded to the "defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position"...and not being a penalty killing defenseman is a dumb reason for exclusion?

If you aren't playing in all situations, you aren't all-round.

All around just means encompassing all factors. Not playing the PK just means you have to be better in the other areas than the ones that do. Also, playing on the PK doesn’t mean you’re any good at it. Having below-average numbers on the PK like Werenski and Makar isn’t exactly a positive.

And that isn’t to say Hughes should definitely be the Norris winner, because the other guys have had great seasons themselves, but it’s pretty asinine to eliminate him solely based on the PK.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

Drai is now:
1st in 5v5 points , 1st in 5v5 goals,1st in 5v5 first assist
1st in goals overall, 1st in GWG
2nd in points and 2nd in PPG, both categories close to first
2nd in +/- also close to first
Top10 in Faceoffs won
Top20 in takeaways

If he keeps this up it could be one of the best seasons in the last 20 years.

Fun fact:
And this with his ppg almost exactly the same as his ppg without McD in the lineup over the last 7 seasons.

Insanity