The Athletic - NHL awards watch: Leon Draisaitl leads a fascinating MVP field

[Sanderson]

Why isn’t Drais defensive rating giving him a spot for the Selke?

Probably because their criteria includes doing a certain amount pf penalty-killing, and Draisaitl hasn't really done that much at all this season as he and McDavid already play ton anyway:

Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s shorthanded minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

I posted on the Hart trophy thread and I’ll post it here as well..

Drai wins the Hart this season and the Ted Lindsay too.

 

[Regal]

Probably because their criteria includes doing a certain amount pf penalty-killing, and Draisaitl hasn't really done that much at all this season as he and McDavid already play ton anyway:

Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s shorthanded minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.

Which probably makes sense even if a lot of voters haven’t gone that direction and guys like Matthews and Crosby have finished high without those things in recent years. I feel like we can acknowledge the strong 5v5 defensive contributions of a star forward when it comes to bumping them up the Hart and Lindsay rankings, but the forward having the best defensive season in the league should probably also be PKing a decent amount.

 

[Three On Zero]

Canucks fans about to lose their goddamn minds……

Why? It’s reasonable to assume that Makar wins the Norris. He may be having a slightly worse defensive year but he’s having a better offensive year which offsets that. Makar has proven to play at a consistent level whereas I think Hughes utilization is going to show signs of fatigue in the 2nd half. He’s getting overworked due to the current defensive structure of the team and it’s already showing.


Side note: 99% Dom’s models are typically trash though.

 

[daver]

But it’s obvious the person doing this didn’t take that into account for anyone since it’s just a list in order of their value rankings. Also, there’s lots of people who don’t subscribe to the notion that relative value matters in Hart voting. Making a personal list for the Hart doesn’t have to be predictive of the actual voters.

It's nothing to do with relative value.

Separation from your teammates should be a clear metric when measuring the strength of a season. Kucherov is relied upon more than McDavid, so far, to carry the offensive load for his team.

 

[LOFIN]

You want to make a smart money bet? Blackwood for Vezina.

 

[Regal]

It's nothing to do with relative value.

Separation from your teammates should be a clear metric when measuring the strength of a season. Kucherov is relied upon more than McDavid, so far, to carry the offensive load for his team.

That’s exactly what relative value is. If McDavid is the better player he brings more total value to his team. That’s a perfectly fine metric to use even if you might not agree, and it’s not how voters typically vote.

Also, using next best teammate is a horrible measure of relative value anyway. Draisaitl is better than Point, but Guentzel, Hagel, Cirelli, Hedman and Vasi have generally been better than their Oiler counterparts this year, and McDavid is in on a higher percentage of the Oilers goals (42) than Kucherov (40).

 

[daver]

That’s exactly what relative value is. If McDavid is the better player he brings more total value. That’s a perfectly fine metric to use even if you might not agree

It would like to see how the total value is being calculated. Having a Hart Trophy worthy teammate on the ice with you 50% of the time likely isn't being considered in that calculation.

At ES, Kucherov is a net PLUS 15 vs. McDavid being a net PLUS 12.

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

TB is also in danger of missing the playoffs entirely in the weakest conference and arguably the weakest division.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Hard to fathom why Kucherov is behind McDavid when their stats are the same and he doesn't have the Hart favourite on his team.

Must be hard being on a line with Point and Guentzel.

 

[Zalos]

How the hell is Shesterkin so high on the Vezina list?

 

[daver]

Must be hard being on a line with Point and Guentzel.

Not as hard as being a line with Draisaitl. Thank you for proving my point.

 

[Regal]

It would like to see how the total value is being calculated. Having a Hart Trophy worthy teammate on the ice with you 50% of the time likely isn't being considered in that calculation.

At ES, Kucherov is a net PLUS 15 vs. McDavid being a net PLUS 12.

I’m not sure if quality of team is accounted for in these stats, but Kucherov plays with Point, Guentzel, Hagel and Cirelli almost exclusively (all of whom are having strong seasons), so he’s not exactly hurting, while Hyman and RNH have been snakebite this year with McDavid (and he only plays with Draisaitl about 38% of the time).

As for plus minus, McDavid’s expected numbers are much better than Kucherov’s. While Kucherov typically outperforms his expected numbers, this year he has a point on a smaller than usual number of the goals scored when he’s on the ice which suggests that his teammates are having a better effect on those numbers.

Regardless, you’re just moving goalposts at this point. You complained about McDavid being too high based on his teammate being higher and it’s clear that Dom is ranking all award candidates here purely on his formula’s determination of overall value without any narrative aspects. Whether his method is a good way to measure overall value is another question.

 

[ToDavid]

Whomever they want to push for the award.

You’re right. It’s a big conspiracy in which he pretends to have a mathematical model so he can publish lists of players that are more or less agreeable. How much do you think Cale Makar is paying him to get the #1 spot on the Norris list?

 

[Video Nasty]

Projections for Kaprizov in the Art Ross and Rocket section will be invalid within a few hours. He’ll miss his sixth game in a row and seventh of the season, giving him a max of 75 for the season.

 

[Muffin]

Why? It’s reasonable to assume that Makar wins the Norris. He may be having a slightly worse defensive year but he’s having a better offensive year which offsets that. Makar has proven to play at a consistent level whereas I think Hughes utilization is going to show signs of fatigue in the 2nd half. He’s getting overworked due to the current defensive structure of the team and it’s already showing.


Side note: 99% Dom’s models are typically trash though.

But Makar has a higher defensive rating than Hughes in this model as well?

 

[a mangy Meowth]

But it’s obvious the person doing this didn’t take that into account for anyone since it’s just a list in order of their value rankings. Also, there’s lots of people who don’t subscribe to the notion that relative value matters in Hart voting. Making a personal list for the Hart doesn’t have to be predictive of the actual voters.

Then make your own model + adjusted metric + resulting list and publish it on your twitter?

 

[Regal]

Then make your own model + adjusted metric + resulting list and publish it on your twitter?

I don’t think you understood the exchange lol. I wasn’t the one criticizing the list

 

[a mangy Meowth]

I don’t think you understood the exchange lol. I wasn’t the one criticizing the list

That's less fun. Now I look silly for kicking this door down

 

[snipes]

Hard to fathom why Kucherov is behind McDavid when their stats are the same and he doesn't have the Hart favourite on his team.

RIP credibility.

You should just go back to grace period arguments.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Why? It’s reasonable to assume that Makar wins the Norris. He may be having a slightly worse defensive year but he’s having a better offensive year which offsets that. Makar has proven to play at a consistent level whereas I think Hughes utilization is going to show signs of fatigue in the 2nd half. He’s getting overworked due to the current defensive structure of the team and it’s already showing.


Side note: 99% Dom’s models are typically trash though.

Makar has five more points in six more games. He's not lapping the field.

 

[Three On Zero]

Makar has five more points in six more games. He's not lapping the field.

Who said he was “lapping the field”?

 

[Craig Button]

Marner over Reinhart for Selke

what a joke

Sam Reinhart Mitch Marner Shorthanded Time On Ice | StatMuse

Sam Reinhart has 69:05 on ice while shorthanded this season.

www.statmuse.com

Sam Reinhart Mitch Marner Takeaway 2024-2025 | StatMuse

Sam Reinhart has gotten 14 takeaways this season.

www.statmuse.com

[

Sam Reinhart Mitch Marner Average Time On Ice 2024-2025 | StatMuse

Sam Reinhart has been on the ice for 20:37 per game this season.

www.statmuse.com

Sam Reinhart Mitch Marner Average Short Handed Time On Ice 2024-2025 | StatMuse

Sam Reinhart has averaged 1:41 on ice per game while shorthanded this season.

www.statmuse.com

URL unfurl="true"]https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6041595/2025/01/07/nhl-leon-draisaitl-mvp-award/[/URL]

"Given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.
Criteria: Forwards who play over 16 minutes per game, receive 15 percent of their team’s short-handed minutes and face top-line forward competition, ranked by their Defensive Rating.
Reinhart currently leads all forwards (under the criteria listed above) in Defensive Rating at plus-4.8 and does narrowly edge Barkov on a per-game basis as well.

 

[Craig Button]

hart

marner over draisaitl

Draisaitl Mitch Marner Shorthanded Time On Ice | StatMuse

Leon Draisaitl has been on the ice for 2:14 while shorthanded this season.

www.statmuse.com

Draisaitl Mitch Marner Average Short Handed Time On Ice 2024-2025 | StatMuse

Leon Draisaitl has been on the ice for 0:03 per game while shorthanded this season.

www.statmuse.com

Draisaitl Mitch Marner Average Time On Ice 2024-2025 | StatMuse

Leon Draisaitl has been on the ice for 21:10 per game this season.

www.statmuse.com

Draisaitl Mitch Marner Takeaway 2024-2025 | StatMuse

Leon Draisaitl has gotten 19 takeaways this season.

www.statmuse.com

 

[Dust]

Pretty sure this model values center's more than wingers for defensive metrics because they have more responsibility.