The Athletic - NHL awards watch: Leon Draisaitl leads a fascinating MVP field

[Regal]

Have you seen how Hart voting usually goes. Players with superstar teammates finish below what their numbers might indicate due to the "valuable to their team" element.

But it’s obvious the person doing this didn’t take that into account for anyone since it’s just a list in order of their value rankings. Also, there’s lots of people who don’t subscribe to the notion that relative value matters in Hart voting. Making a personal list for the Hart doesn’t have to be predictive of the actual voters.

 

[22FUTON9]

Greg also posted his poll as well

Kind of surprised that kaprizov is still leading. I doubt it’ll happen but it’d be nice to see a race similar to last season where guys are reaching milestones left and right again.
Last year it felt like every time Mackinnon had a 4 point game, Kucherov would come back with a 4 point game of his own.

NHL Awards Watch: The MVP race tightens up -- and adds more contenders

At the midway mark of the 2024-25 season, are some awards already sewn up? We checked in with a panel of PHWA voters to check the temperature.

www.espn.com

 

[LevelingSolo]

Not a great year for goalies thus far

 

[oXo Cube]

Love it when a narrative requires new stats that are random numbers that somehow always wind up fitting exactly what the narrative requires of it.

Not sure I follow. Hellebuyck aside isn't this model just spitting out a shortlist of all the names everyone already thought was in contention?

 

[10YearsHaveGone]

But it’s obvious the person doing this didn’t take that into account for anyone since it’s just a list in order of their value rankings. Also, there’s lots of people who don’t subscribe to the notion that relative value matters in Hart voting. Making a personal list for the Hart doesn’t have to be predictive of the actual voters.

Dom L is one of the people who votes on the Hart, and I believe he uses this rating system to determine his winner. Other votes may look at other things. I would also hazard that Dom puts more work into who he chooses than a vast majority of the voters.

 

[Coffey]

Why isn’t Drais defensive rating giving him a spot for the Selke?

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Man Dom's model/rankings are always atrocious. Hutson 4th for Calder is indefensible.

 

[Video Nasty]

Here comes the renewed push to turn Makar into Orr.

 

[eojsmada]

Not sure I follow. Hellebuyck aside isn't this model just spitting out a shortlist of all the names everyone already thought was in contention?

The "Offensive Rating" and "Defensive Rating" portions of the various award candidates are what is in question..

 

[eojsmada]

Why isn’t Drais defensive rating giving him a spot for the Selke?

Because they started with who they wanted for the Hart trophy and found numbers to support it, regardless of what their own numbers meant.

 

[waitin425]

Two things....

#1 - If Calder was awarded today it is Hutson. It is a very tight race and by tomorrow it could be Celebrini again. Drop Wolf. Jesus.

# - I didn't realize Edmonton has two of the best 10 defencemen in the NHL in Bouchard and Ekholm to add to their obvious two of the top 10 forwards. Wow. They should be a slam dunk for the Stanley Cup.

 

[Choralone]

Adrian Kempe has really turned into a two-way beast as a winger - it's gratifying seeing it reflected on here.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Also a model that had Bolduc over Heineman offensively despite playing essentially the same total minutes with the same assist totals and Heineman scoring 5 more goals is not a model to be taken seriously.

 

[Regal]

Dom L is one of the people who votes on the Hart, and I believe he uses this rating system to determine his winner. Other votes may look at other things. I would also hazard that Dom puts more work into who he chooses than a vast majority of the voters.

Yea, I didn’t realize it was Dom until I clicked the link. I can’t access the full article but the initial blurb talks about putting out the numbers and then there’s potentially discussion to be had within the numbers, so he might account for teammates and stuff after the fact. But yea, Dom is a numbers guy so I don’t think it’d be out of place if he’s more interested in whether McDavid added more total value to the Oilers than Kucherov has to Tampa regardless of Draisaitl already being ahead.

Also a model that had Bolduc over Heineman offensively despite playing essentially the same total minutes with the same assist totals and Heineman scoring 5 more goals is not a model to be taken seriously.

Production alone isn’t the only indicator of offensive value. You can drive play that creates goals for your team without getting a point

 

[Voight]

Well, it's not a real leaderboard for Hart for one thing. The Hart winner isn't going to come from the guy that leads in those numbers.

No one is putting Makar ahead of MacKinnon in the Hart race either. I shouldn't say no one, but from the games I've watched, it's obvious who the MVP is....I haven't watched 80+% of their games or anything, but when I ask that question to someone I know that watches 100% of their games.....answer was MacKinnon without any hesitation at all.

Defensemen generally dont win the Hart either, especially if there's an elite forward on their team that's a top 3 player.

 

[Coffey]

# - I didn't realize Edmonton has two of the best 10 defencemen in the NHL in Bouchard and Ekholm to add to their obvious two of the top 10 forwards. Wow. They should be a slam dunk for the Stanley Cup.

Came pretty close last year.

 

[ToDavid]

Love it when a narrative requires new stats that are random numbers that somehow always wind up fitting exactly what the narrative requires of it.

What narrative exactly?

 

[ToDavid]

Have you seen how Hart voting usually goes. Players with superstar teammates finish below what their numbers might indicate due to the "valuable to their team" element.

The Hart has been awarded to either the Ross or Rocket winner in 17 of the past 20 years and of those three, one was the Vezina winner and the another was 2nd in scoring. The only year where there was really significant consideration for "value to their team" was Hall.

 

[waitin425]

Came pretty close last year.

When the NHL has 32 #1 centres and you legitimately have two of them in the top 5.....it is wild for anyone to believe they also have 2 of the top 10 defencemen out of all 64 top pair defencemen to choose from.

 

[GreeningOil]

Canucks fans about to lose their goddamn minds……

For more than one reason lol

 

[Coffey]

When the NHL has 32 #1 centres and you legitimately have two of them in the top 5.....it is wild for anyone to believe they also have 2 of the top 10 defencemen out of all 64 top pair defencemen to choose from.

Oh yea I'm definitely not saying they have 2 of the top 10 dmen haha

 

[ToDavid]

Why isn’t Drais defensive rating giving him a spot for the Selke?

More context in the article, he applies other criteria to narrow the list based on shorthanded ice time and how often they matchup against opposing top players. I presume this is based on how we know voters tend to vote on these things.

He mentions that both Drai and Kaprizov would be on the list without those criteria.

 

[EveryDay]

Production alone isn’t the only indicator of offensive value. You can drive play that creates goals for your team without getting a point

I guess but Heineman is also our most physical forward and he's a beast defensively, I didn't watch Bolduc enough but I'll try too.

 

[eojsmada]

What narrative exactly?

Whomever they want to push for the award.

 

[Regal]

I guess but Heineman is also our most physical forward and he's a beast defensively, I didn't watch Bolduc enough but I'll try too.

Yea, not saying it’s necessarily accurate, because it’s really hard to account for everything, but I think these stats are attempting to do that more than just look at production.