Yes, it may not be sufficient, but looking at the top scorers in the NHL, it is almost without fail a necessary condition. A top junior scorer may not become an elite offensive player, but its very unlikely you get a top offensive player without drafting a top junior scorer.
The issue being the degree of the condition, and not the condition itself. The players we are talking about in this range all have good scoring totals. Some better than others, but none that outline a cause for concern.
A PPG player vs. a 1.21 PPG player (Virtanen vs. Ritchie). Or, 1.65PPG vs. 1.42 (Ehlers vs. Barbashev). Then with Nylander producing 7 points in 22 games in the SHL... These players all project well as scorers, as we can find previous examples of top NHLers producing at similar rates in junior.
Getzlaf, Perry, Benn, Pavelski, Sharp and Iginla immediately spring to mind. But then this could come down to your definition of "top offensive player".
I'd have taken Nichushkin in that position. Limited to CHL players, there wasn't really anyone comparable to a guy like Ehlers, for example, in terms of production. Shinkaruk is probably the closest thing, and he would have been a defensible pick there for sure (without the hindsight of a lost post-draft season).
I liked the Bo Horvat pick, so we differ in opinion there. Guess we'll see how it turns out.
Interesting to cite Shinkaruk as the comparable. You're right, he would have been a defensible pick there, but he did drop. This is where scouting projection can overrule pure production. HS can make a lot of other GMs look foolish, or he can validate their opinion. But production alone was not a determinant for him.
