JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK
Twenty f*ckin years
- Oct 8, 2010
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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:
- Thread starter Gardner McKay
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Is the WJC included in these models?
It’s small sample size, but I do think that ultimately it’s a good teller. I would try to work it in and put a lot of weight into it.
It seems like I often see these projections/evaluations but they don’t seem to include the WJC.
We shouldn’t know our FO missed before the season starts. If the dude hasn’t played a game on his new contract yet and you know is an abhorrent signing, that’s a big issue with the front office.
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Goaltenders can be strong as backups and tend to falter when given the starter’s workload. A goaltender can conceivably be an elite backup (which Darling absolutely was over a large sample size), but they can also be a goaltender who simply cannot handle the workload of a starter and will be the worst starter in the NHL when given that workload.
It’s part of the reason why Buffalo isn’t going to do well with Carter Hutton in net if they expect him to play 60+ games and play at the level he played at for 32 this year.
- Oct 23, 2014
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anyone know of an easy way to see more than top 10 scorers on a year by year basis?
NHL Yearly Top 10 Leaders and Records for Points | Hockey-Reference.com
or like a player page that has his point finish year by year?
NHL Yearly Top 10 Leaders and Records for Points | Hockey-Reference.com
or like a player page that has his point finish year by year?
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
I asked Manny but haven't gotten a response.
I think it's safe to say "no" though, purely because it IS a small sample size. And it seems like a lot of Manny's model is using data from a single season in a single league.
It's probably reeeeeeeeeeeeeally hard to equate WJC performance as compared to points performance from different leagues, if not impossible.
I think it's safe to say "no" though, purely because it IS a small sample size. And it seems like a lot of Manny's model is using data from a single season in a single league.
It's probably reeeeeeeeeeeeeally hard to equate WJC performance as compared to points performance from different leagues, if not impossible.
Manny uses plenty of Leagues, that's not the problem... problem is if it's possible to get enough data to make an NHLe for WJC, i Think it would be tough given it's international play.
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
silverfish
got perma'd
Mac n Gs
Drury plz
- Jan 17, 2014
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I haven't dove into what he's been doing regarding the draft model stuff yet. Is he using only their D-2 through draft year numbers, or has he added in D+1 numbers for the 17 draftees?
I wonder how much Lias and Chytil's projections would shift since they produced in the SHL/AHL? I'd guess that the production in both leagues would only boost Lias' projections.
silverfish
got perma'd
Friendly reminder that John Gilmour was in no way shape or form as bad as people here like to say he was last year.
Harbour Dog
Registered User
Was he even bad?
He looked like a bottom pairing defenseman to me, and his numbers back that up.
Bob Richards
Mr. Mojo Risin'
I am already EXTREMELY unexcited for the Pionk vs Gilmour debate that I am certain is encroaching upon the upcoming season lmao
silverfish
got perma'd
I don't think Gilmour makes the team, speaking honestly. Think he'll start the season in Hartford and then be involved in one of those random trades mid-year where we trade him to a team that he might have a shot at making. Like we did with Graves.
But this guy showed last year that he's likely a 5 or 6 D. Nothing wrong with that.
Mac n Gs
Drury plz
- Jan 17, 2014
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He suffered from eyetestitis where his few gaffes were burned into everyone’s retinas. I agree that he did well in his sheltered role, which is always useful to have in a depth dmen, and his skating is a huge plus for transition offense and defense.
My gut feeling is just that WJC scoring translates well to NHL scoring, especially since all the non top kids playing mens hockey scores at such a marginal rate. Don’t really need to weight anything, just make it reflect the probability,
silverfish
got perma'd
Your gut feeling is that a max 7 game sample size better reflects prospects than a full season? Where in this sample some of those games they can beat up on really bad teams?
I think your gut is wrong.
I strongly disagree with this… Look at Collberg/Friberg for example… Scored for fun at the WJC, played in Mens League, were not great players/prospects
Bigger samples are better and international play in general in team sports is weird because you don't have time to train systems and tactics so i don't trust international play.
Isn't Gilmour waiver exempt? I Think he starts in Hartford then gets brought up whenever we get injuries or make a trade or something and then he sticks.
Cheechoo scored close to 60 in the NHL, and we still look at NHL stats right?
Further, I strongly disagree that Friberg and Collberg scored at will in the WJC. Friberg had a 42% shooting percentage in 2012, does that sound sustainable to you?
So many junior scorers ‘drown’ in the WJC, they obviously aren’t good enough. One big advantage is sorting them out.
Lastly, your last argument is interesting and a good one. I am sure you are right, in some cases. But in other cases it works the other way. Players are able to break away from restraints on their club team. Less tactics, more room for individual skill. Less time to learn to depend on a teammate. I wouldn’t want to venture to guess which ‘case’ has the upper hand. My instinct say the one I pointed at — but that could be due to the fact that I’ve seen so many players break out in international hockey, while unconsciously filtering out the players who obviously just got boosted stats for whatever reason.
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