The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[GeorgeKaplan]

I think they dropped the ball this offseason in terms of fixing that problem. Who’s making the saves? Even when Darling bounces back (which he will, because he was so bad last season it would be impossible for him to be worse), will it be enough? Will his “bounce back” have him playing as an average goalie or as a below average goalie?

I also don’t get firing Peters and handing the job to their version of Messier. Don’t you think that could interfere with their promising underlying numbers?

Could be misremembering, but I thought Peters triggered some out clause in his contract and left

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Could be misremembering, but I thought Peters triggered some out clause in his contract and left

I think you’re right, but I feel like it was a pretty mutual parting of ways. Don’t think they were freaking out about it in Carolina’s front office.

 

[silverfish]

I think they dropped the ball this offseason in terms of fixing that problem. Who’s making the saves? Even when Darling bounces back (which he will, because he was so bad last season it would be impossible for him to be worse), will it be enough? Will his “bounce back” have him playing as an average goalie or as a below average goalie?

I also don’t get firing Peters and handing the job to their version of Messier. Don’t you think that could interfere with their promising underlying numbers?

Most of Darling's history suggests that he's better than an average goalie. It's a somewhat small sample size for a goalie, but even if you run some Bayesian analysis, I'm sure you can find where his true career sv% lies.

Good goalies have bad years. It happens. It's the great and elite goalies that don't. That's part of what makes Hank generational and arguably (I mean, he is, but I'll say arguably for whatever sake) the best goalie of the post-lockout generation. Because of that consistency.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I think you’re right, but I feel like it was a pretty mutual parting of ways. Don’t think they were freaking out about it in Carolina’s front office.

I won’t disagree with that. All the things I’ve heard about their new owner just makes me feel like he’s going to be Melnyk 2.0 in a few years

 

[Mac n Gs]

I think they dropped the ball this offseason in terms of fixing that problem. Who’s making the saves? Even when Darling bounces back (which he will, because he was so bad last season it would be impossible for him to be worse), will it be enough? Will his “bounce back” have him playing as an average goalie or as a below average goalie?

I also don’t get firing Peters and handing the job to their version of Messier. Don’t you think that could interfere with their promising underlying numbers?

To be fair to Rod the Bod, he has been their assistant coach for 7 years now. He at least has some credibility as to why he earned that promotion, and the Canes would have much more insight into how he operates on a day-to-day basis at the rink. Do you think he'll be that tactically different from Peters? He still has the same loaded defense that he can utilize to be uber-aggressive on the rush, and he'll have the benefit of getting an elite young goal scorer and playmaker in Svech and Necas added to his ranks.

 

[silverfish]

New resource: https://evolvingwild. shinyapps.io/hockey/

*hf breaks the link, so just copy+paste, and remove the space.

 

[SA16]

Stana Katic Castle GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

How do you even embed a GIF around here?

 

[silverfish]

Stana Katic Castle GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

How do you even embed a GIF around here?

Paste the image address into this guy:

 

[sbjnyc]

Are you implying that Shattenkirk has never played well for a full-season? Like, we're discrediting his entire career because he played on one-leg for 40 games and still produced?

Tough crowd.

Not for the rangers.

 

[silverfish]

Not for the rangers.

Neither has Sidney Crosby but I think we can all agree he's good.

 

[Mac n Gs]

We have the second easiest schedule in the league next season based on the amount of b2bs and games with a day of rest.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

We have the second easiest schedule in the league next season based on the amount of b2bs and games with a day of rest.

That should help in terms of managing Hank’s starts.

 

[Mac n Gs]

That should help in terms of managing Hank’s starts.

That’s a brilliant point. I hadn't considered that

 

[silverfish]

That should help in terms of managing Hank’s starts.

You think teams look at this yet? I bet they're more focus on the Rangers back-to-backs in terms of managing Hank than they are if the team they are playing is tired or rested. Could be wrong. My lack of faith in the organization as a whole is clearly palpable, though

 

[silverfish]

Every now and then, something prompts me to remember how incredible Zherdev's 08-09 season was.



2.46 5v5 p60
+4.2 relCF%
+2.71 relxGF%
+11.07 relGF%

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Still can’t believe we walked away from Zherdev. Well, I mean, I sort of get it [MOD] but I honestly think we make the playoffs in 09-10 if we kept Z.

He was my first favorite player so it was a bit of a kick in the nuts when we let him go.

 

[Bob Richards]

Weren't Nik Zherdev and Jagr on the same Philly team one year?

Completely irrelevant but I get a kick out of that lol

 

[East Coast Bias]

Still can’t believe we walked away from Zherdev. Well, I mean, I sort of get it (believe he had an alcohol problem, but I might be misremembering), but I honestly think we make the playoffs in 09-10 if we kept Z.

He was my first favorite player so it was a bit of a kick in the nuts when we let him go.

 

[silverfish]

Cody McLeod:

0.68 p60
-9.98 relCF%
-9.27 relxGF%
-18.84 relGF%

The more things change, the less things change.

 

[SA16]

Yea but he fills a role

 

[silverfish]

Yea but he fills a role

There's a very clear painpoint in this team's FO that's going basically unchallenged. It's becoming a problem where the team consistently makes it clear that their valuation of players is way, way off.

 

[Irishguy42]

There's a very clear painpoint in this team's FO that's going basically unchallenged. It's becoming a problem where the team consistently makes it clear that their valuation of players is way, way off.

All players...or just some?

Cause it seems to me like this FO hits more often than not. Or at least more than 50%.

But I agree that when this office is "wrong" they are usuallyvery wrong.

 

[silverfish]

All players...or just some?

Cause it seems to me like this FO hits more often than not. Or at least more than 50%.

But I agree that when this office is "wrong" they are usuallyvery wrong.

In my opinion, more often than not I find myself disagreeing with the way this FO goes about who they are deciding to keep and who they decide to trade and who they decide to target.

But that's me. I am not a GM.

Micah is destroying McLeod on Twitter right now. It hurts.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Interesting that I’ve reached the point in my fandom that I find myself almost yearning for Tanner Glass as opposed to McCleod

Yet here we are

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Manny continues to build on his draft/prospect model and i'm loving it.



Chytil just outside top 15.