The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VIII:

[silverfish]

Like when you've battled Advanced Stats for 5 years, but now all the models are saying the Rangers are going to be a 75 point team, and that's all you post

 

[Blue Blooded]

To be fair, when a model gives more surprising results than expected results - there is likely something wrong with the model.

Was it the Billy James rule; a good model gives 90% expected results and 10% surprises? I like that rule because that's almost exactly how my player prediction models have turned out.

 

[silverfish]

To be fair, when a model gives more surprising results than expected results - there is likely something wrong with the model.

Was it the Billy James rule; a good model gives 90% expected results and 10% surprises? I like that rule because that's almost exactly how my player prediction models have turned out.

I don't know. I run my player sims and disagree with it all the time so the model is clearly bullshit. ADA = Tyson Barrie? jlawokay.gif

 

[Blue Blooded]

I don't know. I run my player sims and disagree with it all the time so the model is clearly bull****. ADA = Tyson Barrie? jlawokay.gif

Search your feelings, you know it to be true!

 

[silverfish]

Search your feelings, you know it to be true!

I don't hate the comp considering where they both were in their respective careers at age 21, but I really do not see that kind of offensive output from ADA in the NHL ever.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I don't hate the comp considering where they both were in their respective careers at age 21, but I really do not see that kind of offensive output from ADA in the NHL ever.

At 20, ADA has 43 points in 69 AHL games with Syracuse. He was then traded to Arizona where he had 16 points in 25 games with Tucson and 14 points in 39 games with Arizona.

At 20, Barrie had 32 points in 49 games with Lake Erie and 0 in 10 NHL games. He then had 13 in 32 with Colorado and 29 in 38 with Lake Erie.

Your comp really does make good sense, but ADA just needs to be given the sufficient ice time to prove it. Last year was a scoring anomaly for him between being on two terrible teams.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I don't hate the comp considering where they both were in their respective careers at age 21, but I really do not see that kind of offensive output from ADA in the NHL ever.

I still don't get the "limited offensive potential"-take with DeAngelo, while I can see the "unacceptably bad defensively"-take. But we've been over this too many times, we'll just have to see how it goes.

 

[silverfish]

At 20, ADA has 43 points in 69 AHL games with Syracuse. He was then traded to Arizona where he had 16 points in 25 games with Tucson and 14 points in 39 games with Arizona.

At 20, Barrie had 32 points in 49 games with Lake Erie and 0 in 10 NHL games. He then had 13 in 32 with Colorado and 29 in 38 with Lake Erie.

Your comp really does make good sense, but ADA just needs to be given the sufficient ice time to prove it. Last year was a scoring anomaly for him between being on two terrible teams.

I still don't get the "limited offensive potential"-take with DeAngelo, while I can see the "unacceptably bad defensively"-take. But we've been over this too many times, we'll just have to see how it goes.

I'm not saying his offensive upside is limited, but I don't think this guy will ever be a 1.14 p/60 5v5 player, and he won't get the PP team on this roster to juice the metrics that way.

 

[Blue Blooded]

I'm not saying his offensive upside is limited, but I don't think this guy will ever be a 1.14 p/60 5v5 player, and he won't get the PP team on this roster to juice the metrics that way.

Play him with Skjei/Smith/Gilmour as a partner and let him QB the PP2 on this team and I think he'll flirt with at least 35-40 points. That should put him into a position to put up even more, on the Rangers or somewhere else. But sure, limited minutes with Claesson/Staal and the 4th line plus no/limited PP time won't give him the opportunity to score much - even Erik Karlsson would struggle to put up points in that environment.

 

[silverfish]

Play him with Skjei/Smith/Gilmour as a partner and let him QB the PP2 on this team and I think he'll flirt with at least 35-40 points. That should put him into a position to put up even more, on the Rangers or somewhere else. But sure, limited minutes with Claesson/Staal and the 4th line plus no/limited PP time won't give him the opportunity to score much - even Erik Karlsson would struggle to put up points in that environment.

I get the point you're trying to make, but it's hilarious because Karlsson skated over 300 minutes with Claesson last year

 

[Machinehead]

Smith wasn't even THAT bad last year.

He was a scapegoat for our first legit horrible year since 2004 because we can't blame the infallible GMJG or our favoritest homegrown players, and the coach became a meme.

Am I wrong?

EDIT: And I'm not saying Smith was good. But look at how he's treated and how Skjei/Pionk are treated. Doesn't sit right with me. Smith is just another signee this fanbase decided to randomly hate just like Bobby Holik was the last time we sucked.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Smith wasn't even THAT bad last year.

He was a scapegoat for our first legit horrible year since 2004 because we can't blame the infallible GMJG or our favoritest homegrown players, and the coach became a meme.

Am I wrong?

EDIT: And I'm not saying Smith was good. But look at how he's treated and how Skjei/Pionk are treated. Doesn't sit right with me. Smith is just another signee this fanbase decided to randomly hate just like Bobby Holik was the last time we sucked.

Smith was absolutely fine from a metric perspective. A bit disappointing, but still better than many regulars (looking at you Staal, Pionk and Holden). Put up a crazy high ixGF/60 to boot.

 

[Blue Blooded]

THANK YOU. I’ve been looking for the link to his draft stuff forever and couldn’t find it.

I’m surprised that Lias is 2nd in his draft year for NHLe, but dips far when it comes to total value. Do you know why that is?

Nvm, I’m dumb and answered my own question after reading for five min.

BTW I've never figured out exactly how "Value" is calculated. It doesn't seem to be based on just age, position, size, adj. PPG and the three probabilities at the end, sometimes it seems to be high/low for no reason at all. What did you figure out after 5 min?

 

[Mac n Gs]

BTW I've never figured out exactly how "Value" is calculated. It doesn't seem to be based on just age, position, size, adj. PPG and the three probabilities at the end, sometimes it seems to be high/low for no reason at all. What did you figure out after 5 min?

Heavily weighted by predicted probabilty of making the NHL, which is weirdly low for Lias.

 

[silverfish]

Smith wasn't even THAT bad last year.

He was a scapegoat for our first legit horrible year since 2004 because we can't blame the infallible GMJG or our favoritest homegrown players, and the coach became a meme.

Am I wrong?

EDIT: And I'm not saying Smith was good. But look at how he's treated and how Skjei/Pionk are treated. Doesn't sit right with me. Smith is just another signee this fanbase decided to randomly hate just like Bobby Holik was the last time we sucked.

Everything that happened to Smith last year was so predictable it's stupid.

Just like this year he's going to "be better" (ie. exactly the same as he's always been) and everyone on HFNYR is going to do another 180 on him, and they'll chalk up his resurrection to the 'wake up' call last year or 'being in the best shape of his life' this year.

It's all crap.

 

[Blue Blooded]

Everything that happened to Smith last year was so predictable it's stupid.

Just like this year he's going to "be better" (ie. exactly the same as he's always been) and everyone on HFNYR is going to do another 180 on him, and they'll chalk up his resurrection to the 'wake up' call last year or 'being in the best shape of his life' this year.

It's all crap.

What especially annoys me is that the players themselves seem to get gaslighted by the narrative every time. 1) I feel bad for them. 2) People quote them and say "SEE HE EVEN ADMITS IT HIMSELF".

 

[silverfish]

It's crazy that saying "Franson" is still a meme to troll users when the people who were saying Franson at 1/1 or Smith at 4/4.35 last off-season were so clearly right.

Imagine saving your employer $15 million and being trolled for it.

 

[Mac n Gs]

The Smith topic is way too polarized of an issue to have rational discussion at this point. He was clearly worse off from when we first got him, but it’s gotten so blown out of proportion at this point. There’s also posters that post every single negative minutiae about it regardless of whether or not it has context to that situation.

I personally don’t like him on the right side, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be a good 2nd pairing LD as the season progresses.

 

[Off Sides]

The Smith topic is way too polarized of an issue to have rational discussion at this point. He was clearly worse off from when we first got him, but it’s gotten so blown out of proportion at this point. There’s also posters that post every single negative minutiae about it regardless of whether or not it has context to that situation.

I personally don’t like him on the right side, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be a good 2nd pairing LD as the season progresses.

I'll give a rational discussion a go but in a non specific stat way.

I agree he has always been a better LD than a RD. Same for Holden but...

I know this is the non eye test thread, but I did watch Detroit over the years Smith was there, (not religiously but a fair amount) from that I have a feeling the biggest sample of his best metrics from Detroit probably came from him playing with Green where Smith was the LD on that pair. The with/without I think I saw pointed to Smith being good without Green or something to that effect but my eye test would not agree there.

My eye test, Smith played last year very much like he played with Detroit when he was not paired with Green. That play seemed to end up with him being moved all over the pairs with different partners, from one side to the other, and even healthy scratched a couple times. Some of him being moved around was attributed to the Wings not having any remotely good natural right shooting D besides Green for his entire tenure there. I'm not sure what we saw last year on the Rangers was that different.

I do expect him to play better this year, but not because he is in shape or whatever, I always saw his play as more of a lack of motivation or even an overconfidence thing where he thought he could turn it on when needed, and I am assuming he is more driven this year, at least to start. I would kind of like them try to pair him with Shattenkirk to see if that worked.

 

[silverfish]

I'd make a play for Nurse assuming the Oilers aren't valuing him as a 1LD in trade negotiations. He's been trending the right way in his relT metrics with last season being the best one so far.

As with all MONEYPUCK though, could probably do just as well if not better for cheaper.

 

[SA16]

I'd trade a 2nd for Nurse now and then trade him for a 1st at the deadline

 

[DanielBrassard]

It's crazy that saying "Franson" is still a meme to troll users when the people who were saying Franson at 1/1 or Smith at 4/4.35 last off-season were so clearly right.

Imagine saving your employer $15 million and being trolled for it.

What makes this even funnier is how much love Smith got after the playoffs from all the people who laughed at that

 

[Machinehead]

I'd trade a 2nd for Nurse now and then trade him for a 1st at the deadline

Right after we flip McQuaid for a 2nd

 

[Machinehead]

Just because

 

[Blue Blooded]

I'd trade a 2nd for Nurse now and then trade him for a 1st at the deadline

Why not keep him?

His underlying stats have gone from "terrible" to "good offensively, defensive liability" to "top pairing defenceman". 17-18 may have been a fluke but if he can keep that level of play up I wouldn't trade him.