The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

[Mac n Gs]

I don't know. I look at Josh Manson making only $4.1m AAV and I'm just like...

Well you were right all along on him, so props for that. Idk how the Ducks sign their defensemen to such sweetheart deals. Like how are Manson/Lindholm making < $10M combined?

 

[silverfish]

Well you were right all along on him, so props for that. Idk how the Ducks sign their defensemen to such sweetheart deals. Like how are Manson/Lindholm making < $10M combined?

They normally don't put up points, which is something that should drive Skjei's value down.

I don't know what the hell Manson did this year to get 37. 30 of those points were 5v5.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Well you were right all along on him, so props for that. Idk how the Ducks sign their defensemen to such sweetheart deals. Like how are Manson/Lindholm making < $10M combined?

Because NHL GMs would rather have Alzner/Weber making 12M combined.

 

[Mac n Gs]

They normally don't put up points, which is something that should drive Skjei's value down.

I don't know what the hell Manson did this year to get 37. 30 of those points were 5v5.

Looking at Lindholm’s contract, that’s exactly what I’d give Skjei

 

[silverfish]

Looking at Lindholm’s contract, that’s exactly what I’d give Skjei

Screams too high for Skjei to me, but I think he'll be right in that neighborhood.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Ugh grandpa, it’s nap time for you.

Which parts would you like clarification on specifically? I’ve split Skjei’s relative team numbers into pre-and-post trade rows to show how he fared playing in an increased role once McD was moved. The metrics are the usual ones pulled from naturalstattrick like corsi, scoring chances, goals for, etc

I believe this response qualifies as both ageist and elderly abuse, so you will be hearing from my lawyers.

Oh, and thanks.

 

[DanielBrassard]

There are some people who, like, seem like they’d be happy if Gilmour got beheaded by Isis I don’t want to invoke their wrath.

I do like him a bit as well, but at this point I am not sure where he fits unless we somehow get rid of Staal or Smith. But I would prefer giving him a longer look.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

I believe this response qualifies as both ageist and elderly abuse, so you will be hearing from my lawyers.

Oh, and thanks.

Jon is probably your lawyer, so I wouldn’t worry too much @Mac n Gs

 

[DanielBrassard]

Screams too high for Skjei to me, but I think he'll be right in that neighborhood.

I would agree, I hope Skjei's lack of raw point totals brings that number down though. Interesting how much better he was after the McDonagh trade, but I would be careful to take too much from that SSS compared to the rest of the season.

Also, I can't be the only one who like DeAngelo more than Pionk at this point can I? If the rest of the league loved Pionk as much as some people here, we'd probably be able to trade him for almost anything lol.

 

[silverfish]

PUT THIS GAME IN YOUR CORSI PIPE AND SMOKE IT.

Good road game, amirite?

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

PUT THIS GAME IN YOUR CORSI PIPE AND SMOKE IT.

Good road game, amirite?

Haven’t watched any of the game but Rinne is hot garbage

 

[silverfish]

Relevant for all your "don't trade up" arguments
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

 

[Irishguy42]

Relevant for all your "don't trade up" arguments
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

Neat-o!

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Relevant for all your "don't trade up" arguments
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

That is p old but I tend to agree with not moving up

 

[Ghost of jas]

Relevant for all your "don't trade up" arguments
http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/Schuckers_NHL_Draftchart.pdf

Cool, trading up to 5 from 9 should only cost a mid-2nd round pick, which the Rangers have. Fits in with what I've said all along about what the actual cost of moving up is.

 

[Tawnos]

This has nothing to do with hockey, but I was reminded in the lottery thread of a mathematical study a guy at Oxford did a few years ago that showed that in order to keep a secret for 100 years, the maximum size of the group that knows the secret is 125 people.

Carry on.

 

[silverfish]

Cool, trading up to 5 from 9 should only cost a mid-2nd round pick, which the Rangers have. Fits in with what I've said all along about what the actual cost of moving up is.

You're missing the point but I can't argue with your logic.

 

[SA16]

Cool, trading up to 5 from 9 should only cost a mid-2nd round pick, which the Rangers have. Fits in with what I've said all along about what the actual cost of moving up is.

It doesn't actually cost that though these charts are more of what the picks should actually be worth rather than how teams value them. Seems too flat at the top also.

 

[Ghost of jas]

You're missing the point but I can't argue with your logic.

Your point is that it's not worth trading up. My point has always been that the cost to move up has always, (much like most trades), been overvalued.

 

[Mac n Gs]

When’s this data from? I’d imagine it’d shift a bit with how some later picks have made NHL impacts over these past seasons. I don’t like using data from the 90s

 

[Ghost of jas]

You're missing the point but I can't argue with your logic.

Actually, I apologize. I misread the chart, it's actually a mid-3rd round pick.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

When’s this data from? I’d imagine it’d shift a bit with how some later picks have made NHL impacts over these past seasons. I don’t like using data from the 90s

Copyright 2011

 

[Mac n Gs]

Copyright 2011

Meh, I’d really like to update it. It’s spanning two completely separate eras of hockey and binning them together. Still valuable, but I think it can be improved

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Meh, I’d really like to update it. It’s spanning two completely separate eras of hockey and binning them together. Still valuable, but I think it can be improved

I'd even go as far to say that there's 2 different eras post-lockout already

 

[Machinehead]

Actually, I apologize. I misread the chart, it's actually a mid-3rd round pick.

Two things

1) Mid-3rd (164) + 9th (596) = 760. 5th = 741. The two picks still have more value, albeit negligible.

2)That's what the numbers say, but good f***ing luck getting a team to take a mid-3rd. It's more likely a mid-2nd and I think you know that to be true. That's why you said it. That's 596 + 192 = 788. Going from 788 to 741 is a steep drop to take willingly.