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The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

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Mac n Gs said:
I see a good hockey player that generates a lot of scoring chances, mostly around the net, when I watch Nash. Stats back that up too, and I have to boil it down to bad luck when you can consistently generate both shots and dangerous scoring chances. The consistency with how his shooting % keeps dipping does make sense to me that some of his abilities are degrading as he ages, but it's been really strange to watch. He does so much correctly in all 3-zones, but his scoring has evaporated.

Then you see **** like Dermott's wrister go in, and you wonder why can't Nash get some luck like that. It's even more baffling that he doesn't have more than 1 assist, especially since I've thought he's been really solid setting up plays this series.
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FWIW, I see Nash driving the play more often than not as well. He's been having bad luck for too long for it to actually be bad luck at this point though. And my opinion is, in a situation like this, the advanced stat that is telling you the guy is still a great player is simply not applicable.
 
Synergy27 said:
FWIW, I see Nash driving the play more often than not as well. He's been having bad luck for too long for it to actually be bad luck at this point though. And my opinion is, in a situation like this, the advanced stat that is telling you the guy is still a great player is simply not applicable.
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Well that may be where the disconnect is. I’m not saying he’s a great player. I’d argue he’s ideally a 2nd line winger at this stage that can play up the lineup if you need him, and I’m aware that he’s starting to regress now that he’s almost 34. All I’m saying is that it’s strange that he consistently generates high-danger chances, but he just doesn’t score. It’s weird.
 
Mac n Gs said:
Well that may be where the disconnect is. I’m not saying he’s a great player. I’d argue he’s ideally a 2nd line winger at this stage that can play up the lineup if you need him, and I’m aware that he’s starting to regress now that he’s almost 34. All I’m saying is that it’s strange that he consistently generates high-danger chances, but he just doesn’t score. It’s weird.
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The guy just can't shoot.

And of course I have to fall back on the old eye test here because we're not puck-tracking yet, but it honestly looks like if you stopped a Nash shot without equipment it wouldn't hurt.
 
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nerds waiting for Nash to regress to the mean and become sustainable

Skeleton-Halloween-decorations-relax-in-Frontyard.jpg
 
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Have we really discussed Skjei’s next contract? Is there a tool that projects contracts because I’m guessing he’s gonna fall in the Slavin range, probably below.
 
Mac n Gs said:
Have we really discussed Skjei’s next contract? Is there a tool that projects contracts because I’m guessing he’s gonna fall in the Slavin range, probably below.
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Matt Cane has one, I think. I don't know if public. Might be able to tweet at him and ask.

The problem with Skjei is that I want to bridge him, but I don't know if that's a risk we can take. Gorilla math says he's got three years 'til UFA, so a four-year deal also doesn't really make sense. Gotta be 5+. Do we want to do that?
 
I would guess Skjei gets something like 5.5x6.

I agree with @silverfish that ideally we’d bridge him, but it’s risky; there’s a decent chance that AV was holding him back and he bursts out of the gate IMO.

He could also just be John Moore.

It’s a tough decision to make.
 
Bozle said:
I would guess Skjei gets something like 5.5x6.

I agree with @silverfish that ideally we’d bridge him, but it’s risky; there’s a decent chance that AV was holding him back and he bursts out of the gate IMO.

He could also just be John Moore.

It’s a tough decision to make.
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Honestly? I'd bridge. Skjei took a big hit this year. Call it AV. Call it sophomore slump. His numbers dropped basically everywhere but rel xG.

He's not going to get the 5v4 time necessary to pump his point totals up to a degree where it will impact his contract. He's never been an offensive guy. More and more I believe that rookie year was an aberration built off of A2s.
 
Disagree. I give Skjei the McDonagh contract if I can because call me crazy, but there were actually improvements in his defensive game this season.

He still finished negative in relxGA, was much better through the neutral zone, and was really good in an increased role after the McDonagh trade. I mean go check his numbers after that, they’re fantastic. I was wrong about his offense translating to this season, but I’d be ok with him being a 30-35 point player.

I do agree that he’s not a good PP player, and he should only see 2nd unit time
 
Mac n Gs said:
Disagree. I give Skjei the McDonagh contract if I can because call me crazy, but there were actually improvements in his defensive game this season.

He still finished negative in relxGA, was much better through the neutral zone, and was really good in an increased role after the McDonagh trade. I mean go check his numbers after that, they’re fantastic. I was wrong about his offense translating to this season, but I’d be ok with him being a 30-35 point player.

I do agree that he’s not a good PP player, and he should only see 2nd unit time
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Do you have splits pre-post McDonagh?
 
PlayerPositionGPTOITOI/GPCF/60 RelCA/60 RelCF% RelFF/60 RelFA/60 RelFF% RelSF/60 RelSA/60 RelSF% RelGF/60 RelGA/60 RelGF% RelSCF/60 RelSCA/60 RelSCF% RelHDCF/60 RelHDCA/60 RelHDCF% RelHDGF/60 RelHDGA/60 RelHDGF% RelOn-Ice SH%On-Ice SV%PDOOff. Zone Faceoffs/60Neu. Zone Faceoffs/60Def. Zone Faceoffs/60Off. Zone Faceoff %
Pre-tradeBrady SkjeiD631050.0516.667461.440.50.461.760.081.010.76-0.210.76-0.580-6.541.060.40.621.361.110.520.210.4-3.416.0191.850.97921.7721.1415.1458.98
Post-tradeBrady SkjeiD19351.133318.48073.37-6.524.042.54-5.394.131.04-1.631.95-1.310.74-21.574.1-7.889.711.07-3.398.84-1.210.56-27.565.3391.710.9718.1122.0419.9947.53
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 
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Mac n Gs said:
PlayerPositionGPTOITOI/GPCF/60 RelCA/60 RelCF% RelFF/60 RelFA/60 RelFF% RelSF/60 RelSA/60 RelSF% RelGF/60 RelGA/60 RelGF% RelSCF/60 RelSCA/60 RelSCF% RelHDCF/60 RelHDCA/60 RelHDCF% RelHDGF/60 RelHDGA/60 RelHDGF% RelOn-Ice SH%On-Ice SV%PDOOff. Zone Faceoffs/60Neu. Zone Faceoffs/60Def. Zone Faceoffs/60Off. Zone Faceoff %
Pre-tradeBrady SkjeiD631050.0516.667461.440.50.461.760.081.010.76-0.210.76-0.580-6.541.060.40.621.361.110.520.210.4-3.416.0191.850.97921.7721.1415.1458.98
Post-tradeBrady SkjeiD19351.133318.48073.37-6.524.042.54-5.394.131.04-1.631.95-1.310.74-21.574.1-7.889.711.07-3.398.84-1.210.56-27.565.3391.710.9718.1122.0419.9947.53
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
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Thanks! That's pretty interesting.
 
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The drastic changes in CA/60 Rel and CF% Rel are pretty interesting.

But that GF% Rel dip...wow.

That HDCF% Rel and SCF% Rel post-McD tho ::eyes emoji::
 
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Irishguy42 said:
The drastic changes in CA/60 Rel and CF% Rel are pretty interesting.

But that GF% Rel dip...wow.
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Sample size and all that jazz.

I guess there's no "real" reason to bridge Skjei. We don't need to save the cap. Maybe just lock up some UFA years and overpay int he short-term to save in the long-term where people think that's where we're going to be competitive anyway?

I just don't know if Skjei is that $5.5m AAV player.
 
silverfish said:
Sample size and all that jazz.

I guess there's no "real" reason to bridge Skjei. We don't need to save the cap. Maybe just lock up some UFA years and overpay int he short-term to save in the long-term where people think that's where we're going to be competitive anyway?

I just don't know if Skjei is that $5.5m AAV player.
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I think it's a larger sample size than the usual "WARNING: SSS" albeit only 19 games of data. It's 1/3 of the "w/ McD" sample.

I think the second part is fine. Overpaying now to save later is probably the best route.
 
Mac n Gs said:
PlayerPositionGPTOITOI/GPCF/60 RelCA/60 RelCF% RelFF/60 RelFA/60 RelFF% RelSF/60 RelSA/60 RelSF% RelGF/60 RelGA/60 RelGF% RelSCF/60 RelSCA/60 RelSCF% RelHDCF/60 RelHDCA/60 RelHDCF% RelHDGF/60 RelHDGA/60 RelHDGF% RelOn-Ice SH%On-Ice SV%PDOOff. Zone Faceoffs/60Neu. Zone Faceoffs/60Def. Zone Faceoffs/60Off. Zone Faceoff %
Pre-tradeBrady SkjeiD631050.0516.667461.440.50.461.760.081.010.76-0.210.76-0.580-6.541.060.40.621.361.110.520.210.4-3.416.0191.850.97921.7721.1415.1458.98
Post-tradeBrady SkjeiD19351.133318.48073.37-6.524.042.54-5.394.131.04-1.631.95-1.310.74-21.574.1-7.889.711.07-3.398.84-1.210.56-27.565.3391.710.9718.1122.0419.9947.53
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Click to expand...

Explain for the old guy.
 
silverfish said:
Sample size and all that jazz.

I guess there's no "real" reason to bridge Skjei. We don't need to save the cap. Maybe just lock up some UFA years and overpay int he short-term to save in the long-term where people think that's where we're going to be competitive anyway?

I just don't know if Skjei is that $5.5m AAV player.
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Have I ever steered you wrong when discussing defensemen? :naughty:

It’s definitely a calculated risk, but I’m very nervous about this defensive crop that we have right now. Skjei is the one certain player I’m comfortable giving term and money too, so I’d do it to have a really good deal (hopefully) on the books. Having McD for so long/cheap helped a lot.

But back to our prospects, I really am only comfortable with Hajek for right now. I like Rykov, but there’s always the concern about him leaving the KHL. Forget the RD position because it’s incredibly barren right now, and I still think we’re lacking that top-end guy. I don’t want to be stuck like the Leafs without having a top dmen to rely on in the playoffs.
 
Mac n Gs said:
Have I ever steered you wrong when discussing defensemen? :naughty:

It’s definitely a calculated risk, but I’m very nervous about this defensive crop that we have right now. Skjei is the one certain player I’m comfortable giving term and money too, so I’d do it to have a really good deal (hopefully) on the books. Having McD for so long/cheap helped a lot.

But back to our prospects, I really am only comfortable with Hajek for right now. I like Rykov, but there’s always the concern about him leaving the KHL. Forget the RD position because it’s incredibly barren right now, and I still think we’re lacking that top-end guy. I don’t want to be stuck like the Leafs without having a top dmen to rely on in the playoffs.
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I don't know. I look at Josh Manson making only $4.1m AAV and I'm just like...

giphy.gif
 
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jas said:
Explain for the old guy.
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Ugh grandpa, it’s nap time for you.

Which parts would you like clarification on specifically? I’ve split Skjei’s relative team numbers into pre-and-post trade rows to show how he fared playing in an increased role once McD was moved. The metrics are the usual ones pulled from naturalstattrick like corsi, scoring chances, goals for, etc
 
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