Thirty One
Safe is safe.
- Dec 28, 2003
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I thought your answer was very thoughtful.
I didn't think about the gap until Zachary told me to:
The Advanced Stats Thread Episode V: Rick Nash Camera Stares/60
- Thread starter Bob Richards
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I didn't think about the gap until Zachary told me to:
silverfish
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Post-mortem: Why did my player projection model suck this year: http://nerdhockey.com/by-the-numbers/2017/4/22/post-mortem-player-projection-model
^ Nothing included in here that you haven't heard me ***** about in this thread, but figured I'd share the link anyway.
^ Nothing included in here that you haven't heard me ***** about in this thread, but figured I'd share the link anyway.
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silverfish
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That's expected fenwick shooting percentage and expected fenwick sv percentage.
xGF/FF = expected fenwick shooting percentage
1 - xGA/FA = expected fenwick save %
Mac n Gs
Drury plz
- Jan 17, 2014
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Damn Manny and his labels
Do you think it's a good way to evaluate defensive players? Or at least take it into consideration more?
silverfish
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Damn Manny and his labels
Do you think it's a good way to evaluate defensive players? Or at least take it into consideration more?
I think it's exactly what it's meant to be and nothing more. It's the closest thing to a "quality" metric that we have.
What is interesting, is that Girardi bleeds shots against (we all know this), but his xFSv% is 2nd best on the team among D behind McDonagh. So there is some merit to the discussion that Girardi, despite bleeding attempts against, is limiting quality.
Now then, though, this opens up the door to what is more important? Quality or quantity? Well, the only way to truly suppress quality is to suppress quantity.
Yeah, and just commenting on purely defensive Ds in general -- you are going to have shifts who are purely defensive during games. Like how often does a team up one goal spend the final 60 sec of a game in the attacking zone.
Just saying, preference towards a puck possession style doesn't rule out acknowledging that being able to play well defensively, clear the crease etc also is valuable.
Mac n Gs
Drury plz
- Jan 17, 2014
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I still think there's that sweet spot between the two, but I agree with you. I like this because it helps confirm what I was seeing that Staal and Holden were worse than G in the long run. I think the biggest issue is determining whether this is a repeatable skill (giving up SAT but limiting quality), or if you're just better off limiting the quantity altogether. The latter obviously makes the most sense to me, but it's the hardest to do.
aufheben
#Norris4Fox
silverfish
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Team ranks first round of the playoffs:
[5v5 Corsica]
Shots attempts against per 60: 13th
Expected goals against per 60: 12th
Goals against per 60: 4th
Shot attempt %: 14th
[All situations Corsica]
Low danger attempts against per 60: 8th
Med danger attempts against per 60: 7th
High danger attempts against per 60: 14th
Goals saved above expected: 1st
Team defense wasn't really any better during the series than it was during the season, we just got ridiculous play out of Hank.
Once again, the goalie makes the coach and the defense look better than they are.
Download the data from Corsica and make your own?
[5v5 Corsica]
Shots attempts against per 60: 13th
Expected goals against per 60: 12th
Goals against per 60: 4th
Shot attempt %: 14th
[All situations Corsica]
Low danger attempts against per 60: 8th
Med danger attempts against per 60: 7th
High danger attempts against per 60: 14th
Goals saved above expected: 1st
Team defense wasn't really any better during the series than it was during the season, we just got ridiculous play out of Hank.
Once again, the goalie makes the coach and the defense look better than they are.
Download the data from Corsica and make your own?
silverfish
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I'm not going to "ruin anyone's fun" in the Girardi thread, so I'll just post this here...
Praising G for being on the ice for only 1 5v5 GA in the 6 game series is exactly the sort of bad analysis that rewards G with a contract like the one he has now.
He wasn't good in that series. Lundqvist was great.
Praising G for being on the ice for only 1 5v5 GA in the 6 game series is exactly the sort of bad analysis that rewards G with a contract like the one he has now.
He wasn't good in that series. Lundqvist was great.
Miamipuck
Al Swearengen
How many goals against are you going to be on the ice for when your goalie is posting a save % of .943? Unless, they are getting north of 50 shots a night.
Zil
Shrug
- Feb 9, 2006
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He did have a few games with an unusually strong CF%, but yeah Hank masks a lot of mistakes. It doesn't hurt that Staal is in total free fall, dragging Holden along with him. Everyone looks good in comparison to them.
silverfish
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This is exactly my point. Using GA to analyze a d-man isn't good analysis unless you have a very large sample size. Hell, I don't like using GA as a measure of skater skill really ever, regardless of sample size, especially now that we have xG. To do it in a 6 game series? When your goalie plays lights out? I don't agree with that method.
I think you'd be much better off looking at shot attempts against or expected goals against.
Agreed but what are some stats that made him look bad? What was his CF% for the series?
silverfish
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5v5 ranks among NYR d from Corsica:
relSA%: Last
relxGF%: 4th
relGF%: Tied-3rd
Staal-Holden were both worse on xGF% and GF%.
Igor Shestyorkin
#26, the sickest of 'em all.
aufheben
#Norris4Fox
Miamipuck
Al Swearengen
I think girardi looked better than usual (which isn't saying much) because Montreal wasn't too fast. I haven't watched the sens too much. What's their style?
silverfish
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Raspewtin
Stay at home defenseman hater
- May 30, 2013
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silverfish
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A Tell All Tale: How I scammed the Rangers into paying me $33 million
By: Dan Girardi
Girardi was valuable for us this series. Played many tough minutes and got the job done.
Many would like to see guys like Clendenning for us and Nesterov for MTL (top CF% for each team) play those late shifts and don't think it would matter, but it would. But I think this is one of those things we never will straighten out at this place. All coaches in the NHL are worthless and have no idea what they are doing, Beuke is brain dead, Girardi does nothing good, Chris Holt is better than Lundqvist, and so forth...
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