The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IX

[Machinehead]

I'm posting this in here because I'm not interested in debating whether or not Pionk has been bad.

Can we develop him to the point where he's not bad?

23 years old. Great skater with an excellent shot and a good pair of hands. There's no reason he has to be bad. But he is. Is he salvageable?

I'm not expecting a Norris winner, but if we could turn him into an offensive defenseman who isn't the literal f***ing plague defensively (I'm thinking John Carlson, maybe?) I would be very happy.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I'm posting this in here because I'm not interested in debating whether or not Pionk has been bad.

Can we develop him to the point where he's not bad?

23 years old. Great skater with an excellent shot and a good pair of hands. There's no reason he has to be bad. But he is. Is he salvageable?

I'm not expecting a Norris winner, but if we could turn him into an offensive defenseman who isn't the literal ****ing plague defensively (I'm thinking John Carlson, maybe?) I would be very happy.

It's tough to say, I don't know how effective he can be when he either doesn't have great vision or great passing ability.

 

[DanielBrassard]

What do you guys make of the fact that under every coach we have had since the lockout, the Rangers have been really good at generating shots in high danger areas? I don't know how it looks for other teams, but that is an interesting phenomenon. Maybe it's not so out of the norm for that to happen.

 

[Machinehead]

What do you guys make of the fact that under every coach we have had since the lockout, the Rangers have been really good at generating shots in high danger areas? I don't know how it looks for other teams, but that is an interesting phenomenon. Maybe it's not so out of the norm for that to happen.

A lot is made of the Rangers not having elite offensive talent, particularly a franchise center.

That's not to say the Rangers, as a team, can't play offense or haven't had tremendous depth on offense.

Under Renney, it's an easy answer. Jagr was God and Gomez absolutely was an elite center here. He died when he got to Montreal.

The AV teams were routinely rolling three 1st lines. None of them were particularly good 1st lines compared to other 1st lines, but we had three 1st lines. First-ballot Hall of Famer MSL was appearing on our 3rd line. So were great NHL'ers like Brad Richards and Rick Nash. On top of that, guys like Dom Moore and Brian Boyle were 3rd liners on our 4th line. We talked earlier about how all of the Cup winners since I can remember have had a HOF center to two top 10 centers. The Rangers almost won the Cup with nothing close to that. Might sound crazy, but the 13-14 and 14-15 Rangers, to me, were among the deepest ever up front. Take a franchise center and just drop him on those teams, and they're 60-win teams with back-to-back Cups.

Even now, under Quinn, we have depth. Howden is on pace for 45 points. Vesey is on pace for 27 goals. That's our 3rd line. We're missing Zucc and Buch and we still have more forwards than we quite know what to do with. And this is after trading Grabner, Nash, and Miller, which speaks to the insane level of depth we had at one point. Add a legit 1C to this roster and I think we're on our way to becoming the most dangerous offensive force in the NHL, potentially for years. It's the defense I'm worried about.

The real mystery, for me, would be the Torts years. They didn't have much of anything but Gaborik.

 

[aufheben]

Roy, Hasek, Brodeur = untouchables?

Roy, Hasek, Brodeur = untouchables?

On the mainboards of all places, I found a pretty interesting discussion. Basically, someone is making the claim (first post) that SV% goes up as Shots Against go up and using it to support an agneda for Marty Brodeur in comparison to Dom Hasek and Patty Roy, as he faced fewer shots than those guys in the Devils trap years.

The poster recites a pretty large data set of games where a goalie faced <= 29 shots and >= shots and the SV% in games where the goalie faced 30 or more shots is noticeably higher for every single goalie.

Now the 2nd poster made a good point about selection bias and goalies being pulled. A goalie playing bad or on an off night will be pulled before he can eclipse 30 shots against so that skews the data, and also that the poster is using a rate stat (SV%) against a raw stat (shots against) and would be better off served using SA/60 as a measure of tendy workload.

Found this pretty interesting. The 2nd poster claims there is no legitimate corelation to SV% and shots faced and offered to better analyze the data if he was provided it. Figured I'd post it here and see if anyone else has any insights.

Well, all the conclusions are mysteriously in favor of Brodeur, and that Doctor No, a guy who literally has his own website for goaltending statistics, is disagreeing with him. And they're using high-danger shot rates to compare goalies who played like a decade before it was invented.

 

[Ola]

You have a video example so I can see exactly the kind of the play you're referring to? Also, this seems like something that would be handled in the prescout/film room, not sure how it relates to analytics or statistics

Yeah, I was wondering more what it had resulted in. I've seen Philly like twice this season, against us and LAK. Both we and LAK really struggled containing them during those two games.

 

[Ola]

What do you guys make of the fact that under every coach we have had since the lockout, the Rangers have been really good at generating shots in high danger areas? I don't know how it looks for other teams, but that is an interesting phenomenon. Maybe it's not so out of the norm for that to happen.

I think there is a very significant hang-over from coach to coach, both good and bad.

 

[Ola]

It's tough to say, I don't know how effective he can be when he either doesn't have great vision or great passing ability.

Yeah but, what is great passing ability? There have been a number of very limited Ds playing on very successful units over the years, because they just did their job. Both White and Daneyko did a really good job moving the puck for those NJ teams. Its one thing for me to question a guy's ability to find passing lanes if he is supposed to run a PP. But for a defender a lot is just about making the standard play.

 

[Ola]

I see we're back to the argument that the Rangers are the cutting edge of analytics and have stuff we haven't heard of yet.

How long have we had an analytics department? A year?

Easily two decades. You don't think we have used data to analyze things before this year?

How does me posting i want Manny and Matt to join NYR make you write this post to me? ?!?!?! :s Truly confused.

MFW I read those posts

Haha, maybe, just maybe, I considered others posts by you when making that reply? But what ever, keep being clowns if it suits you better. I am not sure I have ever seen a post from either of you guys where you actually contribute something and not just attack other posters.

 

[Ola]

I'm posting this in here because I'm not interested in debating whether or not Pionk has been bad.

Can we develop him to the point where he's not bad?

23 years old. Great skater with an excellent shot and a good pair of hands. There's no reason he has to be bad. But he is. Is he salvageable?

I'm not expecting a Norris winner, but if we could turn him into an offensive defenseman who isn't the literal ****ing plague defensively (I'm thinking John Carlson, maybe?) I would be very happy.

I mostly concerned with our size on the blueline. Claesson is not a great defender by any means, but when seeing him go into situations its quite obvious how much more effective you can be with some size and style in which you use it. Staal has size but he is so passive often.

 

[Ola]

What I'm saying is everyone knows the rule that we can't assume causation, and now people are doing the opposite and just assuming there isn't.

Knowledge is like an island, the more you know the longer your shoreline against the unknown is.

I agree with you, we are looking for tools to help us understand something that is so complex that it cannot be understood. But that doesn't mean a theory cannot be valuable without proven causation. I think you could make the argument that causation more or less never is proven in the game of hockey, its the degree of it that is interesting.

 

[SA16]

I'm posting this in here because I'm not interested in debating whether or not Pionk has been bad.

Can we develop him to the point where he's not bad?

23 years old. Great skater with an excellent shot and a good pair of hands. There's no reason he has to be bad. But he is. Is he salvageable?

I'm not expecting a Norris winner, but if we could turn him into an offensive defenseman who isn't the literal ****ing plague defensively (I'm thinking John Carlson, maybe?) I would be very happy.

Actually I don't agree with the statement that Pionk have been bad. Both coaches David Quinn and Alain Vigneault have deployed him as a 1RD. Don't you think that maybe they see something in him that you do not? They watch him practice in every day and I'm sure you can also see plainly that he is a great skater. He also have a very good shot and in the NHL now it is very important to get shots through from the point which is something Pionk excels at. Simply put if a player does not get his shots through that will lead to turnovers and odd man rushes against. Pionk's ability to do this generates rebounds and additional scoring chances. I'm sure you can see that Shatty and DeAngelo do not have this ability. In addition Shatty does not have the footspeed to get back on defense when his shot gets blocked on the point.

So I would tell you from this there is no need to salvage Pionk. The New York Rangers got him as a free asset and he is already exceeding all expectations as an undrafted free agent. He have 28 points in his first 50 games which is among the best of any dman in recent years. He just needs more experience and then with his excellent work on the PP and great work at even strength he have a chance to become a future all star. Just have patience. He is not the next Diaz, Clendening, or Poti but could become Krug-lite.

 

[Doctyl]

Actually I don't agree with the statement that Pionk have been bad. Both coaches David Quinn and Alain Vigneault have deployed him as a 1RD. Don't you think that maybe they see something in him that you do not? They watch him practice in every day and I'm sure you can also see plainly that he is a great skater. He also have a very good shot and in the NHL now it is very important to get shots through from the point which is something Pionk excels at. Simply put if a player does not get his shots through that will lead to turnovers and odd man rushes against. Pionk's ability to do this generates rebounds and additional scoring chances. I'm sure you can see that Shatty and DeAngelo do not have this ability. In addition Shatty does not have the footspeed to get back on defense when his shot gets blocked on the point.

So I would tell you from this there is no need to salvage Pionk. The New York Rangers got him as a free asset and he is already exceeding all expectations as an undrafted free agent. He have 28 points in his first 50 games which is among the best of any dman in recent years. He just needs more experience and then with his excellent work on the PP and great work at even strength he have a chance to become a future all star. Just have patience. He is not the next Diaz, Clendening, or Poti but could become Krug-lite.

He’s just so bad defensively that it’s inexcusable to use him as a 1RD right now when Shattenkirk and ADA are clearly better.

I feel like Risto is a comparable player right now. Good offensively, bad defensively, and used wildly inappropriately.

 

[1Knee1T]

Actually I don't agree with the statement that Pionk have been bad. Both coaches David Quinn and Alain Vigneault have deployed him as a 1RD. Don't you think that maybe they see something in him that you do not? They watch him practice in every day and I'm sure you can also see plainly that he is a great skater. He also have a very good shot and in the NHL now it is very important to get shots through from the point which is something Pionk excels at. Simply put if a player does not get his shots through that will lead to turnovers and odd man rushes against. Pionk's ability to do this generates rebounds and additional scoring chances. I'm sure you can see that Shatty and DeAngelo do not have this ability. In addition Shatty does not have the footspeed to get back on defense when his shot gets blocked on the point.

So I would tell you from this there is no need to salvage Pionk. The New York Rangers got him as a free asset and he is already exceeding all expectations as an undrafted free agent. He have 28 points in his first 50 games which is among the best of any dman in recent years. He just needs more experience and then with his excellent work on the PP and great work at even strength he have a chance to become a future all star. Just have patience. He is not the next Diaz, Clendening, or Poti but could become Krug-lite.

Nitpicking, but I'm pretty sure it was discussed here that DeAngelo is one the best on the team at getting the puck through to the net. There were numbers to back that claim up, but I don't recall which version of this thread it was in.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Nitpicking, but I'm pretty sure it was discussed here that DeAngelo is one the best on the team at getting the puck through to the net. There were numbers to back that claim up, but I don't recall which version of this thread it was in.

He doesn't get his shot through any more than other Ranger dmen this year. In fact he has been below average. In all situations:

Staal 59%
DeAngelo 59%
Skjei 48%
Claesson 48%
Pionk 47% (downgrade from last year he was 51% then)
Shattenkirk 46%
Smith 41%
McQuaid 23% (lol)

On the PP he has 4 shots on 16 attempts (25%). Shattenkirk is 14 for 23 (61%).

If you look at all dmen with 10+ shot attempts on the PP his 25% is second worst in the league

They were SA16's numbers.

He is being VERY satirical in the post you quoted.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Are there any threads here where guys can take personal grievances and just duke it out? Because I'd read that shit.

 

[1Knee1T]

They were SA16's numbers.

He is being VERY satirical in the post you quoted.

At least I wasn't wrong! There was a lot in that post I didn't want to touch, but I knew the Tony stat was out there somewhere.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Actually I don't agree with the statement that Pionk have been bad. Both coaches David Quinn and Alain Vigneault have deployed him as a 1RD. Don't you think that maybe they see something in him that you do not? They watch him practice in every day and I'm sure you can also see plainly that he is a great skater. He also have a very good shot and in the NHL now it is very important to get shots through from the point which is something Pionk excels at. Simply put if a player does not get his shots through that will lead to turnovers and odd man rushes against. Pionk's ability to do this generates rebounds and additional scoring chances. I'm sure you can see that Shatty and DeAngelo do not have this ability. In addition Shatty does not have the footspeed to get back on defense when his shot gets blocked on the point.

So I would tell you from this there is no need to salvage Pionk. The New York Rangers got him as a free asset and he is already exceeding all expectations as an undrafted free agent. He have 28 points in his first 50 games which is among the best of any dman in recent years. He just needs more experience and then with his excellent work on the PP and great work at even strength he have a chance to become a future all star. Just have patience. He is not the next Diaz, Clendening, or Poti but could become Krug-lite.

This is once again amazing. I’m scared.

 

[Ola]

This is once again amazing. I’m scared.

Hehe I thought he quoted my post. It was pretty good, bold and underlined. But he must write three of them in a row and use more paragraphs.

 

[Irishguy42]

Are there any threads here where guys can take personal grievances and just duke it out? Because I'd read that ****.

I mean, we are getting close to Festivus...

 

[Ola]

I mean, we are getting close to Festivus...

Don’t remind me, I prefer slugging with you and Machinehead and Tobbe every day over that...

They were SA16's numbers.

He is being VERY satirical in the post you quoted.

He gave himself away with the word “disagree”, I searched this thread and the word “disagree” appears once every 138th post and “I don’t agree”/“I do not agree” once every 301st post. In the roster builder thread the same rate is every 8.67th post and every 11th post. In this thread you may not disagree, only pat each other’s backs.

Yes Pastor Greenleaf, god is good!

 

[DanielBrassard]

Don’t remind me, I prefer slugging with you and Machinehead and Tobbe every day over that...



He gave himself away with the word “disagree”, I searched this thread and the word “disagree” appears once every 138th post and “I don’t agree”/“I do not agree” once every 301st post. In the roster builder thread the same rate is every 8.67th post and every 11th post. In this thread you may not disagree, only pat each other’s backs.

Yes Pastor Greenleaf, god is good!

I disagree.

 

[Machinehead]

Our xGF% has fallen off the face of the earth after this weekend.

 

[PlamsUnlimited]

Our xGF% has fallen off the face of the earth after this weekend.

Corsica doesn't work for me very much.

Where do you go? I feel like we are deeper than the N train tunnels on the xGF% list now.

The Broadway line has the deepest tunnels in the MTA. #MTAfunfacts

 

[Machinehead]

Corsica doesn't work for me very much.

Where do you go? I feel like we are deeper than the N train tunnels on the xGF% list now.

The Broadway line has the deepest tunnels in the MTA. #MTAfunfacts

I went to Corsica