The Advanced Stats Thread Episode IX

[Machinehead]

You fought with me last year about this re: Minnesota

I did, but it's different for Minnesota. Minnesota is a team trying to win and I still feel like this is a dangerous way to try and win in the playoffs.

 

[Irishguy42]

I'm sure that's part of it, but then how do you explain teams like Montreal and New Jersey who on paper don't have better talent, outside of Hall? Montreal is one of the better CF% teams in the league and the Devils are more than respectable. I don't understand why the Rangers are just so bad. And yes, they have been good at limiting quality shots against, and good at getting quality shots for, but that remains to be seen how long that lasts. Only team that does it consistently while being outshot consistently is Minnesota.

True.

But they also have coaches who are super experienced, in the case of Julien, and have been with the team long enough to cement their footprint, in the case of Hynes.

It's a bit of a grey area, as it really changes from team to team and talent to talent. That's why it's not a fine line, to me.

 

[DanielBrassard]

True.

But they also have coaches who are super experienced, in the case of Julien, and have been with the team long enough to cement their footprint, in the case of Hynes.

It's a bit of a grey area, as it really changes from team to team and talent to talent. That's why it's not a fine line, to me.

All good points, and we do need to give Quinn more time, and we definitely need to upgrade the talent level. I'd just like to see more puck possession lol, it's been 4 years now of them getting their brains bashed in.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'm sure that's part of it, but then how do you explain teams like Montreal and New Jersey who on paper don't have better talent, outside of Hall? Montreal is one of the better CF% teams in the league and the Devils are more than respectable. I don't understand why the Rangers are just so bad. And yes, they have been good at limiting quality shots against, and good at getting quality shots for, but that remains to be seen how long that lasts. Only team that does it consistently while being outshot consistently is Minnesota.

We're at the quarter mark of the season.

While its not a great sample size and they've yet to face the teeth of their schedule (they've had one of the softest ones in the league), this is pretty much who they are.

They have a very AV roster and a decent amount of youth. You can't turn chicken shit into chicken salad.

 

[silverfish]

 

[Machinehead]

Excellent defensive game from the 4th line.

Tony DeAngelo is good at hockey.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Just a throw-in in the Stepan trade though

 

[Blue Blooded]

Excellent defensive game from the 4th line.

No event hockey.

 

[Blue Blooded]

From Corsica's game sheet:

Matchups are limited to 5-on-5 situations. Tile size is scaled by Time On Ice and colour is scaled by adjusted Expected Goals differential. Blue represents a home team advantage and red represents a road team advantage.

From NST's game sheet:

 

[Blue Blooded]

I.E. we beat the Stars' heads in on xGF last night (esp. 5v5).

DeAngelo had an 88+ xGF% 5v5, Chytil 95+!

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Low event hockey is a good way to play against a team with Radulov, Seguin and Benn

 

[SnowblindNYR]

So I have a question, I want to do a little analysis. Does Corsi use even strength data or 5 on 5 only? I feel like you're still playing offense and defense 4 on 4, but 3 on 3 it's almost a different game. They're rare states in the game so maybe it doesn't matter. I feel like these websites use even strength and 5 on 5 interchangeably and they're not necessarily.

@Machinehead @silverfish

 

[silverfish]

So I have a question, I want to do a little analysis. Does Corsi use even strength data or 5 on 5 only? I feel like you're still playing offense and defense 4 on 4, but 3 on 3 it's almost a different game. They're rare states in the game so maybe it doesn't matter. I feel like these websites use even strength and 5 on 5 interchangeably and they're not necessarily.

@Machinehead @silverfish

The sites differentiate. 5v5 is 5v5. EV is when the teams have an equal amount of skaters on the ice.

For example, on Corsica.Hockey, the Rangers are a 46.54 CF% team 5v5 990.47 minutes. If you flip to ES, they're 46.24% in 1029.23. You can also drill down to 4v4 and 3v3, specifically, on the site.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

The sites differentiate. 5v5 is 5v5. EV is when the teams have an equal amount of skaters on the ice.

For example, on Corsica.Hockey, the Rangers are a 46.54 CF% team 5v5 990.47 minutes. If you flip to ES, they're 46.24% in 1029.23. You can also drill down to 4v4 and 3v3, specifically, on the site.

But when people use CF% is that usually going off EV or 5 on 5? Or is it not really standard and some go off one and some the other?

 

[silverfish]

But when people use CF% is that usually going off EV or 5 on 5? Or is it not really standard and some go off one and some the other?

5v5, most likely.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

5v5, most likely.

Thanks.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

But when people use CF% is that usually going off EV or 5 on 5? Or is it not really standard and some go off one and some the other?

You're splitting hairs either way. The vast majority of even strength time is obviously played 5on5 so even if you include 4on4 and 30n3 situations, it has little to no impact on the overall number.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

You're splitting hairs either way. The vast majority of even strength time is obviously played 5on5 so even if you include 4on4 and 30n3 situations, it has little to no impact on the overall number.

Yeah, I figured that too.

 

[Machinehead]

You're splitting hairs either way. The vast majority of even strength time is obviously played 5on5 so even if you include 4on4 and 30n3 situations, it has little to no impact on the overall number.

5 minutes of OT can add up.

I'm pretty sure that's counted as EV, which is why I prefer 5v5.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

5 minutes of OT can add up.

I'm pretty sure that's counted as EV, which is why I prefer 5v5.

That's kind of how I think about it too. 3 on 3 is such a different state than 5 on 5 that it will skew the data.

 

[Machinehead]

How much longer do we "see how it develops" with Pionk?

The Rangers are a high school team when he's on the ice.

 

[Leetch3]

How much longer do we "see how it develops" with Pionk?

The Rangers are a high school team when he's on the ice.

until a better RHD prospect arrives...til then he keeps going out there in hopes that he'll improve. who cares if it cost us games now, replacing him with a guy with no future doesn't help us long term.

 

[Machinehead]

until a better RHD prospect arrives...til then he keeps going out there in hopes that he'll improve. who cares if it cost us games now, replacing him with a guy with no future doesn't help us long term.

 

[Leetch3]

agreed and he should be playing more in more situations to show what he can do. but he's already in the lineup so i wasn't counting him

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

How much longer do we "see how it develops" with Pionk?

The Rangers are a high school team when he's on the ice.

For a young defenseman?

At least two full seasons.