The 5 tanks are back at it!

[Nikolajs Sillers]

Rebuilding take time!!!

Just ask Buffalo.

 

[Seedtype]

crazy that you can look at the Blue Jackets’ schedule and spot the moment when their jinx thread was started

Dean Evason and the Columbus Blue Jackets

now have the second best goal differential in the metro. team is playing incredible hockey right now. Elvis has stopped 60 of his last 61 shots. (shutout tonight) the monahan-chinakhov-marchenko line is currently graded the #1 forward line in the entire league. jackets currently are scoring...

forums.hfboards.com

That thread was so frustrating because we had the Jets that week followed by the California road trip. Like could you wait to see how the Jackets handle their first big test??? Argh.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Sorted by consecutive years in the Bottom 5 and then alphabetically for viz purposes.

Colorado, Edmonton, Florida, New York (Islanders) and Tampa all bottomed out in the late 2000s/early 10s. 10-15 years later and there's a bunch of banners hanging among that group.

 

[Devilsfan2326]

Has parity in the league decreased?

 

[NotCommitted]

To the bolded…

Laine...

 

[qc14]

View attachment 932215

Sorted by consecutive years in the Bottom 5 and then alphabetically for viz purposes.

Colorado, Edmonton, Florida, New York (Islanders) and Tampa all bottomed out in the late 2000s/early 10s. 10-15 years later and there's a bunch of banners hanging among that group.

None of those teams were purposefully bad to the level of current "tanks." Most of them were bad by accident and had many good players on the roster that would stay with the team into some of their future successes.

Tanking is for cheap owners and bad GMs and I hope the fact that the bottom 5 all seem completely stuck where they are wakes more fans and media up to that fact.

 

[MoneyManny]

Tanking has proven to be more unsuccessful than successful over course of the post-lockout era. MacKinnon and Ekblad are the only #1 picks since 08 #1 Stamkos to win the cup. ~10 years for each of them to win. For reference, Malkin/Crosby were drafted in 04/05 and won in 09, Toews/Kane drafted in 06/07 and won in 10. This kinda of turnaround doesn't happen anymore.

In that same window 2008-present window:

• #2 Barkov, Hedman, Doughty, Landeskog all won with their draft teams, Eichel and reinhart after trades, and Seguin on his draft team(but the Bruins didnt tank to get him).
• #3 Bogosian won with not his draft team and in a bottom pair role
• #4 Byram, Makar, Pietrangelo are the only winners with their draft team, Bennett won on his 2nd team. Critically, Makar and Byram were drafted 6 and 8 years, respectively, after Landeskog, who was 2 years AFTER Duchene and O'reilly were drafted.
• #5 Schenn bros are the only to win, both not on their draft teams.

Thats 17 players across 7 cup winning teams, over 16 years and 90 top 5 picks.

Point being, tanking isn't a guarantee for success and even if it is, the teams who have proved it works took a decade to make it happen AND got arguably their most important pieces years after tanking a top pick (Rantanen/Makar, Kucherov/Vasi, Tkachuk/Bob).

Ducks and Habs are a great example of why tanking is a risk, and as a Sharks fan i'm definitely nervous about the next few years. Nothing is close to a guarantee

1 out of 32 teams win the cup every year. Any "strategy" to winning it will be more unsuccessful than successful.

Unless you count being located in Florida a strategy.

 

[Sky04]

I am not saying a bust just that he's not a generational talent as advertised. MacKinnon is a physical specimen, bedard is never going to be that big or fast as a 5'9 guy.

I'm sure he'll still flirt with 100 points with some talent around him but he's not pulling a team out of the basement alone.

And not even McDavid is doing that with Draisaitl or Mackinnon without Makar so moot point genius no player is doing it themselves in today's game.

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

It's because none of those teams have actually, truly, committed to a rebuild and still ice teams of overpaid, overvalued, and underperforming veterans. Those teams all missed the boat on when to start their rebuild.

Have you seen the Sharks roster from last year? They were all in.

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

To the bolded…please tell me you’re not talking about Texier. If anyone thought this guy was supposed to be a star, shame on them. Guy is one of the worst players in St. Louis and is probably out of the NHL altogether very soon. How he got a 2-yr contract for over $2M/year is a beyond me. He may look the part of an NHL’er with good size and some skill, but his decision-making is brutal and his compete-level is questionable. If he was one of Columbus’ top prospects it’s no surprise the rebuild hasn’t gone well.

Pretty sure the bolded was Laine. He lost his father and had a pretty well documented bout of depression.

 

[qc14]

How do the other major sports leagues compare in time to turn around a rebuild? More or less the same?

NFL is the best equipped for a "tank" given the shorter career spans and immediate impact that drafted players are expected to make. With good scouting and luck, you can immediately pull in 5, 6, 7 starters from a single draft class. While things are QB dependent, there are still two distinct phases of play and 11 players on the field at once so it's not quite as much of a necessity to have a superstar as basketball. That being said, some positions are much more easily replaceable in the draft and UFA than hockey for example, and non-guaranteed contracts allow you to much more easily remake the bottom end of a roster quickly.

NBA is the most needed to tank. Only 5 guys on the court at once and starters can play 70-85% of the game. Without a bonafide superstar you can't do anything. As for turnaround times, there's much wider variance given only two rounds of draft picks and only really expecting the top 15 picks to eventually become full time NBA level guys. You can be the Pistons or my Wizards and through poor scouting and luck be stuck in the basement for decades, or you can be the Spurs and luck into the best prospect in a decade the first year you're ever bad.

NHL combines the worst aspects of both of those. Draft picks -- outside of basically the top 5 but most of the time even including those -- take at minimum 3 years to make the league and usually closer to 6 or 7 to have an impact. Having a superstar to take over games and win minutes against other teams' top players are crucially important. Even the absolute best players in the world though are only on the ice for 40% of the game though, and rosters are bigger than basketball so you also need a volume of good players as well. Just takes too long and you need to hit on too many of your lottery tickets for a rebuild (where you purposefully ice bad rosters and trade away good players) to be worth it IMO.

 

[Enga Olly]

Will never happen but I would love to see a total change in drafting position. Non-playoff teams with the best record get the best odds for first overall. This tank stuff is totally against the honesty and integrity of the game. No NHL game, season or partial season should be played with the intention to lose. It's dishonest and rewarding teams that tank promotes this dishonest behaviour.

 

[StreetHawk]

Ducks and Habs are a great example of why tanking is a risk, and as a Sharks fan i'm definitely nervous about the next few years. Nothing is close to a guarantee

Integrating the kids into the lineup is a challenge. Plus, after 4 years of a losing culture, how do you turn that around just from within? Need to do something to change it up. Plus, GMs now under the gun to get it turned around. I doubt Murray, if he didn't have his personal issues, would still be GM of Anaheim after 6 seasons of no PO and looking like a 7th for Ana.

 

[Viqsi]

To the bolded…please tell me you’re not talking about Texier. If anyone thought this guy was supposed to be a star, shame on them. Guy is one of the worst players in St. Louis and is probably out of the NHL altogether very soon. How he got a 2-yr contract for over $2M/year is a beyond me. He may look the part of an NHL’er with good size and some skill, but his decision-making is brutal and his compete-level is questionable. If he was one of Columbus’ top prospects it’s no surprise the rebuild hasn’t gone well.

No, that's talking about Laine. Texier was expected to be a good support forward.

 

[Tawnos]

None of those teams were purposefully bad to the level of current "tanks." Most of them were bad by accident and had many good players on the roster that would stay with the team into some of their future successes.

Tanking is for cheap owners and bad GMs and I hope the fact that the bottom 5 all seem completely stuck where they are wakes more fans and media up to that fact.

I don't think this is true at all. The vast, vast majority of those teams were putting out bad rosters on purpose.

 

[Viqsi]

Will never happen but I would love to see a total change in drafting position. Non-playoff teams with the best record get the best odds for first overall. This tank stuff is totally against the honesty and integrity of the game. No NHL game, season or partial season should be played with the intention to lose. It's dishonest and rewarding teams that tank promotes this dishonest behaviour.

The Blue Jackets have literally never in their existence done this, and yet they'd be screwed by such an approach. Kind of like Detroit and the lottery rule changes that arrived just in time to screw them.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Think the Ducks have the best chance at finishing last, every time I've watched them (especially at even strength) it feels like they're always getting dominated.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

How do the other major sports leagues compare in time to turn around a rebuild? More or less the same?

Idk the NFL seems to have the same teams at the bottom every year too. Jacksonville, Jets, used to be the Lions, Giants

 

[zombie kopitar]

idk about the MLB, but NFL and NBA are not comparable. I don’t even think NFL really has true rebuilds.

MLB rebuilds are interesting, so many trades and draft picks happen that it all becomes somewhat a gamble(unless you're also spending big money). Tatis Jr was basically a throw in to the Padres when he was 17 for a middling pitcher, and he turned into a franchise player. I have been following the Orioles rebuild and love what they did

NBA can be harder to get out of the basement than NHL, super stars dominate the league and I think 'winning/losing culture' is more pertinent there than any other league

I would agree with NFL, so much turnover year to year, constant injuries, it's definitely a season to season league unless you have a healthy franchise QB. Teams can have really bad cultures there as well though, and bad drafting can really ruin a team quickly


Anyway, Celebrini is going to take the Sharks out of the basement sooner than later, he is him. But would be great to get one more blue chip this next draft

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

Ducks need a coaching change bad!!!

 

[lwvs84]

As more teams are added, it's going to be harder to move from the bottom. There are more teams with cap space, more teams drafting between your picks, and he's qualified people out there to coach/manage teams.

Also, it takes some luck on top of just being able to manage the team. It's a lot easier to pull yourself out of the bottom if you're lucky with the lottery or are a free agent destination. If you're lucky enough to move up more often than you move down in the lottery, you're going to rebuild quicker than if you're always falling.

The Ducks problem (this season) has been poor coaching and some bad luck. I don't think I've seen a team hit so many posts relative to the number of shots they take. Cronin also seems to not have answers at this level and when something is working he breaks it up to fix lines that aren't working. Verbeek has made some good moves (Vatrano, Gudas, Dumoulin) and some bad to horrible ones (Strome is fine on the 3rd line, but not a top 6 forward. Killorn was just a horrible signing). Verbeek's moves haven't handcuffed the team, but his choice of Cronin might sink them unless he can get 4 lines that click together.

 

[qc14]

I don't think this is true at all. The vast, vast majority of those teams were putting out bad rosters on purpose.

Tampa Bay traded their first the year before they drafted Stamkos. Colorado traded their first the year before drafting MacKinnon and had 112 points the season after. Florida won the division the year before they took Barkov.

They all made moves at various points to make their current roster worse for future assets. They were nowhere near the teardown rebuilds we see today.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Every single one of these teams tried to improve this offseason, they're just bad.

Anaheim and Montreal really have no excuse to be this bad. Columbus shouldn't be this bad but at least they have an excuse. Chicago signed a bunch of bad players hoping they would fix the team and it hasn't panned out. And the Sharks are in a strictly developmental year with their teenage rookie centers going through their expected growing pains.

 

[kerrabria]

NBA can be harder to get out of the basement than NHL, super stars dominate the league and I think 'winning/losing culture' is more pertinent there than any other league

NBA teams fall into one of three categories.

• Good teams = 2 or 3 stars plus good depth
• Okay teams = 2 or 3 stars but no depth / 0 or 1 stars plus good depth
• Bad teams = 0 or 1 stars and no depth

The draft doesn't matter nearly as much in the NBA because you never really know which prospect is gonna pop off to become a Top 25 player in the league. And beyond getting a free star, the draft doesn't matter all that much. Everybody else on the team is very replaceable (as evidenced by the colossal roster turnover), and having "good depth" comes down to the GM's ability to navigate the Salary Cap and acquire a handful of players' who compliment the 2 or 3 stars.

 

[korrowan]

Wings will be in the cellar soon.