The 2024-2025 Season: A simple calculation to keep Matthews and Nylander?

[ITM]

I don't know what the current cap projections are and given the last couple of years wouldn't hazard to etch any estimates in stone. That said, when the 2024-2025 season rolls around, it would seem both Muzzin and Brodie come off the books. Matthews and Nylander (if one or both hasn't been traded by then) also come off the books.

I wonder if management's using a simple calculation. If the cap rises to approximately $86M (accounting for an increase of a million a year) and Matthews is given a raise that equates to 15% of the cap, he comes in around $13M. If Nylander is given a raise up to 9% of the cap, he comes in at about 7.8M and let's round to $8M.

A year later, Tavares' $11M comes off the books. So...I mention Brodie and Muzzin as sort of bookends of insurance. Note, Murray's into UFA territory as well.

We patch one more year with Tavares and by that time, our (hopeful) promising prospects like Niemela and Knies are in their second or third ELC years.

Am I looking at this incorrectly, or will we have a 28 year old Nylander, a 27 year.old Marner, and a 26 year old Matthews to start the 2024-2025 season with a lot more to spend moving forward than we might have thought otherwise?

Obviously some sound spending has to take place until then, but...Perhaps we're in better shape than we realize?

Better math minds, by all means, please chime in.

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[A1LeafNation]

Rather sign Nylander Matthews and Marner with Reilly locked up.

Tavares gets bought out or moved or something.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Rather sign Nylander Matthews and Marner with Reilly locked up.

Tavares gets bought out or moved or something.

Buying out or moving Tavares is up to him, not only to the team.

 

[Buds17]

Buying out or moving Tavares is up to him, not only to the team.

The NMC actually doesn't prevent the contract from being susceptible to a buyout.

Now, the cap hit that would accompany said buyout OTOH...yikes!!!

 

[Leaf Fans]

The NMC actually doesn't prevent the contract from being susceptible to a buyout.

Now, the cap hit that would accompany said buyout OTOH...yikes!!!

Not specifically, but it does prevent the player from being wavied - a prerequisite to a buy out. The player has to ok it.

 

[Buds17]

Not specifically, but it does prevent the player from being wavied - a prerequisite to a buy out. The player has to ok it.

Okay and thank you. I was probably thinking that waiving for the purpose of being sent to the AHL is what's within the player's veto rights and being waived for the purpose of a buyout is separate from that.

 

[Mickey Marner]

It would be nice if we were able to lockup Matthews long-term before a big cap jump.

 

[Leaf Fans]

It would be nice if we were able to lockup Matthews long-term before a big cap jump.

It would have to be next summer. After that the " player debt" will be paid.

 

[cyris]

Not specifically, but it does prevent the player from being wavied - a prerequisite to a buy out. The player has to ok it.

You can’t place a player with a NMC on waivers with out them agreeing to it. But if a player has an MMC you don’t have to put them on waivers to buy them out.

So you can buyout a player with an NMC. But it ultimately doesn’t matter because you can’t buyout signing bonus. And as nearly all of Tavares’s contract is paid in signing bonus they won’t really get much relief from buying him out.

 

[Aashir]

Nylander ain’t coming in at 8.

He’s gonna ask for 8.5-9 mil

He will get that range in open market if he continues to produce like last year

 

[Leaf Fans]

You can’t place a player with a NMC on waivers with out them agreeing to it. But if a player has an MMC you don’t have to put them on waivers to buy them out.

So you can buyout a player with an NMC. But it ultimately doesn’t matter because you can buyout signing bonus. And as nearly all of Tavares’s contract is paid in signing bonus they won’t really get much relief from buying him out.

Thank you. I stand corrected.

 

[Stephen]

So we basically just have to lock in Matthews and Nylander and ride out the last year of Tavares. Should be doable since $15 million or so of Muzzin, Murray and Brodie also end, so there's a lot of money coming off the books.

Marner would obviously also be re-signed but with the cap going up and Tavares coming off the books, or on a much reduced salary, the 2025-26 season would see some big cap space open up. Hopefully we'll have a championship by then anyway, but that's the thinking.

 

[Menzinger]

It's not as complicated as I think some folks think. They essentially just have to be able to ride Tavares' contract out for one season, then they get a bunch of breathing room, even with the eventual new Marner deal (the cap will also keep going up too).

Personally I'd likely go down that route - especially if the Leafs manage to go on a deeper playoff run this post-season.

 

[Lenovs]

i can't imagine matthews staying in toronto, no matter what the leafs will offer him. he's off to the us imho.

 

[Maple Leaf]

i can imagine matthews staying in toronto,

 

[Funk21]

I don't know what the current cap projections are and given the last couple of years wouldn't hazard to etch any estimates in stone. That said, when the 2024-2025 season rolls around, it would seem both Muzzin and Brodie come off the books. Matthews and Nylander (if one or both hasn't been traded by then) also come off the books.

I wonder if management's using a simple calculation. If the cap rises to approximately $86M (accounting for an increase of a million a year) and Matthews is given a raise that equates to 15% of the cap, he comes in around $13M. If Nylander is given a raise up to 9% of the cap, he comes in at about 7.8M and let's round to $8M.

A year later, Tavares' $11M comes off the books. So...I mention Brodie and Muzzin as sort of bookends of insurance. Note, Murray's into UFA territory as well.

We patch one more year with Tavares and by that time, our (hopeful) promising prospects like Niemela and Knies are in their second or third ELC years.

Am I looking at this incorrectly, or will we have a 28 year old Nylander, a 27 year.old Marner, and a 26 year old Matthews to start the 2024-2025 season with a lot more to spend moving forward than we might have thought otherwise?

Obviously some sound spending has to take place until then, but...Perhaps we're in better shape than we realize?

Better math minds, by all means, please chime in.

I think they start pushing the cap a little further next year. Yes I am aware the NHL and NHLPA and trying to get the books straight but with the NHL pushing record Revenue and teams being forced into fire sales due to cap crunches i think they need to balance increasing the cap and getting the books straight.

That being said I think both your numbers of 13 x 8 for AM and 8x8 for Nylander sound about right. I think Marner should be looking at 11 x 8 when his comes up as he was overpaid with his last contract IMO.

JT will as you stated be off the books soon enough And if he wants to continue playing here take a massive discount.

Optimistically I believe the cap looks something like this:

23/24 85 Million
24/25 88-90 Million

 

[New User Name]

Why would we even think of getting out of Tavares contract? He's the first player that came home in his prime to play for the team he cheered for as a kid.

It would be an insult to him for Leafs management to even think of, let alone ask him.

Certainly would impact other players considering to come back home. Not that I expect it to happen anytime soon, but why take that risk?

 

[Nineteen67]

They need to do everything they can to sign Matthews. Nylander still has prove he deserve another contract.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

It's not as dire as people may think. The MacKinnon contract is going to be interesting later this summer as a baseline (AM will get more).

Conceivably Nylander gets a 2M raise to 9M AAV

Matthews gets a 2.5M raise to 14M

So 4.5m AAV, Which is basically Muzzin or Brodie coming off the books and being replaced by an ELC or other cheap option.

One season of tight cap-play, maybe even a step back. Then Tavares' 11M comes off AND the cap explodes with the debt paid back from the players. Tavares signs cheaper, Marner gets a slight(?) Raise which has more to do with the cap going up than anything - and then they have ample room to fill out the roster.

 

[ACC1224]

It's not as complicated as I think some folks think. They essentially just have to be able to ride Tavares' contract out for one season, then they get a bunch of breathing room, even with the eventual new Marner deal (the cap will also keep going up too).

Personally I'd likely go down that route - especially if the Leafs manage to go on a deeper playoff run this post-season.

What do we think Tavares gets on his next deal? 8-9?

 

[Captain Crunch]

Why would we even think of getting out of Tavares contract? He's the first player that came home in his prime to play for the team he cheered for as a kid.

It would be an insult to him for Leafs management to even think of, let alone ask him.

Certainly would impact other players considering to come back home. Not that I expect it to happen anytime soon, but why take that risk?

Unfortunately you’re right. It would not help us lure other star UFA’s to sign here. We are just going to have to ride out JT’s contract until the end. In other words, probably not making any deep playoff runs due to Dubas‘ flawed belief in building a championship-caliber team by using basically half your cap on 2 wingers and 2 centers.

 

[Mess]

Lets do the math first.,

The current Salary cap has been set for $82.5 mil for 2022-23 season and has gone up +$1 mil from previous. So lets be generous now that Covid rules are relaxed and Areas are full again that increases by +2 mil while in recovery. So 2023-24 --> $ 84.5 mil and then 2024-25 (when Matthews and Nylander expire) --> $86.5 mil upper limit.

The CBA also states no one player can make more than 20% Cap Hit % of his teams % based on the upper limit = approx $86.5 mil (2024-25) = $17. 3 mil max AAV allowable (+/- based on estimated).

The CBA also states that a players current team is allowed to offer an 8 year term, while every other outside team only 7 years max allowable.

With a 60 goal season and pair of Rocket Richard trophies as well as Hart and league regular season MVP the sky will be the limit on Matthews next deal, and he essentially has a blank cheque in his asking price.

Leafs could ask Matthews to give them a home team discount and offer 8 years at $15 mil = $120 mil ( C.H.% of 17.3), which then means a rival offer of 7 years X ~17 mil = $120 mil total.

So based on these calculations Matthews current $11.64 mil AAV ---> $15 mil AAV = +$3.36 mil raise (extra cap required).

Note: This does not include tax consideration into the offers only the straight math, as Tax free States could offer less than $17 mil to match actually after taxes take home pay.

 

[Menzinger]

What do we think Tavares gets on his next deal? 8-9?

Could be lower. Malkin is 35 (a year older than Tavares will be at the end of his current deal) and just signed for 6.5 mil.

I think it depends where and what term too. He probably signs for less in Toronto than if he hits the open market

 

[Stephen]

Lets do the math first.,

The current Salary cap has been set for $82.5 mil for 2022-23 season and has gone up +$1 mil from previous. So lets be generous now that Covid rules are relaxed and Areas are full again that increases by +2 mil while in recovery. So 2023-24 --> $ 84.5 mil and then 2024-25 (when Matthews and Nylander expire) --> $86.5 mil upper limit.

The CBA also states no one player can make more than 20% Cap Hit % of his teams % based on the upper limit = approx $86.5 mil (2024-25) = $17. 3 mil max AAV allowable (+/- based on estimated).

The CBA also states that a players current team is allowed to offer an 8 year term, while every other outside team only 7 years max allowable.

With a 60 goal season and pair of Rocket Richard trophies as well as Hart and league regular season MVP the sky will be the limit on Matthews next deal, and he essentially has a blank cheque in his asking price.

Leafs could ask Matthews to give them a home team discount and offer 8 years at $15 mil = $120 mil ( C.H.% of 17.3), which then means a rival offer of 7 years X ~17 mil = $120 mil total.

So based on these calculations Matthews current $11.64 mil AAV ---> $15 mil AAV = +$3.36 mil raise (extra cap required).

Note: This does not include tax consideration into the offers only the straight math, as Tax free States could offer less than $17 mil to match actually after taxes take home pay.

Think of it his way as the "Race to $15 million."

If Auston Matthews' new AAV costs $15 million, each contending team will have to clear out $15 million in salary to fit Matthews in, with unknown consequences to the structure of that team, since multiple key players will need to be deleted in a short time to make it happen. We need to find $3.36 million max. only.

 

[WillyC]

What do we think Tavares gets on his next deal? 8-9?

I think he signs something like 4-5 years at $1.5-2 million