Prospect Info: The 2023 NHL Entry Draft Thread

[Joe Hallenback]

Any favourites? Danielson? Yager? Heidt? Other?

If I had to choose between the 3. I like Yager a lot but if I had to guess he goes in the top 10 but he impacts the game when he is on the ice. Danielson is underrated, very smooth and pro ready. Heidt is exciting but he was a bit of a disappointment at the u18s for me.

 

[Whileee]

If I had to choose between the 3. I like Yager a lot but if I had to guess he goes in the top 10 but he impacts the game when he is on the ice. Danielson is underrated, very smooth and pro ready. Heidt is exciting but he was a bit of a disappointment at the u18s for me.

So, Danielson if he's available? Seems to be on the cusp, but might drop to #18.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Is anyone assembling a "consensus" ranking on here?

I heard Wood is a poor skater. Not sure I want that.

 

[MardyBum]

Pronman had us taking Oliver Moore in a mock iirc. I'd be happy with that assuming he slips a bit. One of the best skaters in the draft, one of those "doesn't get the praise cause he's not on the top line" guys on the NTDP. Probably not there at our pick though.

Also a good ol Minnesota boy.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Is anyone assembling a "consensus" ranking on here?

I heard Wood is a poor skater. Not sure I want that.

The best for that will be Mckenzie's end of season rankings but one of the problems with it is there are not a lot of D in the top 20 but you could see some go higher then his list would suggest

So, Danielson if he's available? Seems to be on the cusp, but might drop to #18.

I think he will be around us when we pick. One of the big complaints is his offensive production but having watched a lot of him this if his team mates had any finish we wouldn't worry about him. He reminds me a bit of Sebastian Aho. A really good two way center with slick hands in tight and great work ethic

 

[snowkiddin]

Pronman had us taking Oliver Moore in a mock iirc. I'd be happy with that assuming he slips a bit. One of the best skaters in the draft, one of those "doesn't get the praise cause he's not on the top line" guys on the NTDP. Probably not there at our pick though.

Also a good ol Minnesota boy.

Yeah, that was in his mock last week. Pronman suggested Moore might go higher than where had had him penned but that he's gotten the sense that Moore might fall into the 15-20 range

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Let's hope we have a few picks

 

[ps241]

I think he will be around us when we pick. One of the big complaints is his offensive production but having watched a lot of him this if his team mates had any finish we wouldn't worry about him. He reminds me a bit of Sebastian Aho. A really good two way center with slick hands in tight and great work ethic

There are a few things to like about Danielson but to focus in on your point one thing I look for in a prospect is relative production. Nate D is the top scorer on Brandon and the only guy in his zip code is 20 year old Nolan Ritchie. After that the next closest scorer was 28 points back. That tells me Danielson was hauling some water in his draft year. I had only one live viewing, none the less I felt Nate’s game was mature and he looked like a guy that was going to be an NHL player for sure. Also his draft -1 production was 57 points in 53 games which is also really solid.

We could do worse at #18.

 

[Thechozen1]

Will we have a solution in Arizona this week ? If you've followed this saga its hard to believe it could ever end.

These are the Years and Years and Years Of Our Lives.

 

[MosTLucky]

If we manage to somehow trade PLD for 5th overall, who do we take?

Honestly, I'd love to snag Benson in that spot. Kid's a warrior.

 

[tbcwpg]

If we manage to somehow trade PLD for 5th overall, who do we take?

Honestly, I'd love to snag Benson in that spot. Kid's a warrior.

Whomever is left of Michkov/Carlsson/Smith/Fantilli

 

[LowLefty]

I had an interesting conversation with someone who's pretty knowledgeable and plugged in (not with the Jets / TNSE, but in the hockey world), suggesting that the Jets might need to refocus on drafting "harder" players, and players from this region who would commit to the market (i.e. W Canada, and perhaps including Minnesota). He cited how the remaining teams had a lot of "hard" skill - i.e. players that were skilled, but also played an aggressive team game with heavy forechecking and getting to "hard" areas (Tkachuk is the paragon, but players like Stone, Gourde, Hintz, Jarvis etc. fit the mold). He also indicated that the Jets' D struggles to handle a heavy forecheck, and noted how remaining teams had quite a bit of size along with some skill on D (e.g. Vegas, Panthers, Canes). You can afford to have a D like Morrissey, but not if the rest are like Pionk, Schmidt, DeMelo and can be run down by a heavy forecheck.

Interestingly, Pronman also came out with a recent article reviewing the 2018 draft, noting that a number of the D flops were smaller D that lacked exceptional skating / skill (link: Pronman: What we can learn for the 2023 NHL Draft from the 2018 NHL Draft ) So, if a smaller D isn't as skilled / fast as Quinn Hughes or maybe Girard, then it's a riskier pick.

So, I wondered about how these concepts might be integrated into the Jets' draft strategy for 2023.

At #18, there are likely to be a number of good forwards available. If the Jets focus more on "local" and "hard" skills, then maybe Danielson, Yager, Wood, Heidt will feature prominently.

There isn't as much emphasis on D in Round 1 this year, but if the Jets look in that direction I wonder if a player like Simashev might be a better bet than one of the smaller D like Sandin Pellika.

Anyway, just some early musings...

Your "Pretty knowledgeable" source is dead on - and it's been discussed on here a numbers of time with a wide spread reaction to this take.
I agree and have posted in several times - including your thread on the org and go forward options.
IMO, this should be a focus when drafting or trading - we need players exactly like this.

 

[JetsFan815]

I had an interesting conversation with someone who's pretty knowledgeable and plugged in (not with the Jets / TNSE, but in the hockey world), suggesting that the Jets might need to refocus on drafting "harder" players, and players from this region who would commit to the market (i.e. W Canada, and perhaps including Minnesota). He cited how the remaining teams had a lot of "hard" skill - i.e. players that were skilled, but also played an aggressive team game with heavy forechecking and getting to "hard" areas (Tkachuk is the paragon, but players like Stone, Gourde, Hintz, Jarvis etc. fit the mold). He also indicated that the Jets' D struggles to handle a heavy forecheck, and noted how remaining teams had quite a bit of size along with some skill on D (e.g. Vegas, Panthers, Canes). You can afford to have a D like Morrissey, but not if the rest are like Pionk, Schmidt, DeMelo and can be run down by a heavy forecheck.

Interestingly, Pronman also came out with a recent article reviewing the 2018 draft, noting that a number of the D flops were smaller D that lacked exceptional skating / skill (link: Pronman: What we can learn for the 2023 NHL Draft from the 2018 NHL Draft ) So, if a smaller D isn't as skilled / fast as Quinn Hughes or maybe Girard, then it's a riskier pick.

So, I wondered about how these concepts might be integrated into the Jets' draft strategy for 2023.

At #18, there are likely to be a number of good forwards available. If the Jets focus more on "local" and "hard" skills, then maybe Danielson, Yager, Wood, Heidt will feature prominently.

There isn't as much emphasis on D in Round 1 this year, but if the Jets look in that direction I wonder if a player like Simashev might be a better bet than one of the smaller D like Sandin Pellika.

Anyway, just some early musings...

"Local" should be completely irrelevant factor when drafting. The Jets will be guaranteed minimum 7-9 years of control of whichever guy they draft taking them to age 25-27. That is more than enough time to build around them. There is also no guarantee that a local player is more likely to re-up (Wheeler who lives in Florida in the offseason re-signed long term, whereas as Stone who is from here supposedly didn't wanna sign and Whitecloud picked Vegas over the Jets).

I also question the virtue of looking at "which remaining teams are left" to determine the kind of players you need to win as that results in chasing trends rather than building a roster with vision. If you did a similar analysis last season or during the Tampa/Pittsburg/Blackhawks repeat cup winning years you'd come to the exact opposite conclusion (esp during the Pittsburg seasons where the only guy they had in the lineup with grit was Hornqvist). What this shows is that there are many ways of building a winner.

The focus should be on drafting best possible players. Yes all things being equal I'd take a guy with more size over a smaller guy but all other things usually aren't equal. And going all in on this logic imo is a recipe for franchise altering mistakes like drafting Jake Virtanen over Ehlers/Nylander... when Canucks used this exact same logic (grit and local representation) to decide that Virtanen was going to be their man.

 

[surixon]

"Local" should be completely irrelevant factor when drafting. The Jets will be guaranteed minimum 7-9 years of control of whichever guy they draft taking them to age 25-27. That is more than enough time to build around them. There is also no guarantee that a local player is more likely to re-up (Wheeler who lives in Florida in the offseason re-signed long term, whereas as Stone who is from here supposedly didn't wanna sign and Whitecloud picked Vegas over the Jets).

I also question the virtue of looking at "which remaining teams are left" to determine the kind of players you need to win as that results in chasing trends rather than building a roster with vision. If you did a similar analysis last season or during the Tampa/Pittsburg/Blackhawks repeat cup winning years you'd come to the exact opposite conclusion (esp during the Pittsburg seasons where the only guy they had in the lineup with grit was Hornqvist). What this shows is that there are many ways of building a winner.

The focus should be on drafting best possible players. Yes all things being equal I'd take a guy with more size over a smaller guy but all other things usually aren't equal. And going all in on this logic imo is a recipe for franchise altering mistakes like drafting Jake Virtanen over Ehlers/Nylander... when Canucks used this exact same logic (grit and local representation) to decide that Virtanen was going to be their man.

Excellent post. It's also not like all the teams left are physical teams. The Canes aren't big hitting team, they beat you and dominate through space management, timing and puck possesion.

 

[Whileee]

"Local" should be completely irrelevant factor when drafting. The Jets will be guaranteed minimum 7-9 years of control of whichever guy they draft taking them to age 25-27. That is more than enough time to build around them. There is also no guarantee that a local player is more likely to re-up (Wheeler who lives in Florida in the offseason re-signed long term, whereas as Stone who is from here supposedly didn't wanna sign and Whitecloud picked Vegas over the Jets).

I also question the virtue of looking at "which remaining teams are left" to determine the kind of players you need to win as that results in chasing trends rather than building a roster with vision. If you did a similar analysis last season or during the Tampa/Pittsburg/Blackhawks repeat cup winning years you'd come to the exact opposite conclusion (esp during the Pittsburg seasons where the only guy they had in the lineup with grit was Hornqvist). What this shows is that there are many ways of building a winner.

The focus should be on drafting best possible players. Yes all things being equal I'd take a guy with more size over a smaller guy but all other things usually aren't equal. And going all in on this logic imo is a recipe for franchise altering mistakes like drafting Jake Virtanen over Ehlers/Nylander... when Canucks used this exact same logic (grit and local representation) to decide that Virtanen was going to be their man.

I agree with many of these points, but would clarify a bit.

I was conveying some observations from a "plugged in" hockey person, who I think is balanced and has some insights based on working with some coaches / management people that are admired around here. It surprised me a bit, but on reflection I wonder about how much the drama of players like PLD and Trouba and maybe others wanting out, even if they are under control. It's a balance, but you don't want a team to be sapped by malcontent players. I think that was the main point.

I don't think that size is such an issue, but play style is. I think you can have some very skilled perimeter players, but you need some hard skill, too. I would say that Crosby and Jarvis are examples of smaller players that play a more rigged game in the hard areas, vs. a player like Ehlers and maybe Lambert. It's making sure you have players that really make the opposition work hard.

I do think that size and mobility really help D succeed, and there aren't that many small D that are skilled enough to really excel. Again, I think it's a balance. Right now, I would say the Jets' D are a bit too easy to play against.

Of course, the first criterion has to be talent, including hockey sense, followed closely by a strong work ethic. Virtanen fails in several of those areas.

 

[WolfHouse]

If I had to choose between the 3. I like Yager a lot but if I had to guess he goes in the top 10 but he impacts the game when he is on the ice. Danielson is underrated, very smooth and pro ready. Heidt is exciting but he was a bit of a disappointment at the u18s for me.

Only if we call him the Yagermeister

 

[surixon]

I agree with many of these points, but would clarify a bit.

I was conveying some observations from a "plugged in" hockey person, who I think is balanced and has some insights based on working with some coaches / management people that are admired around here. It surprised me a bit, but on reflection I wonder about how much the drama of players like PLD and Trouba and maybe others wanting out, even if they are under control. It's a balance, but you don't want a team to be sapped by malcontent players. I think that was the main point.

I don't think that size is such an issue, but play style is. I think you can have some very skilled perimeter players, but you need some hard skill, too. I would say that Crosby and Jarvis are examples of smaller players that play a more rigged game in the hard areas, vs. a player like Ehlers and maybe Lambert. It's making sure you have players that really make the opposition work hard.

I do think that size and mobility really help D succeed, and there aren't that many small D that are skilled enough to really excel. Again, I think it's a balance. Right now, I would say the Jets' D are a bit too easy to play against.

Of course, the first criterion has to be talent, including hockey sense, followed closely by a strong work ethic. Virtanen fails in several of those areas.

Interesting back and forth on this. I tend to think our forwards this past year where fine in the play hard regard. Our heat maps showed a clear plan to get shots from those high danger areas.

I brought Ehlers up earlier this year as the one player who really didn't fit the game plan up front. He is a shoot from everywhere player with the majority coming from the perimeter. Contrast that to everyone else in the top 6 who have the bulk of their shots coming from the slot area. I think the team just simply didn't finish as well as it could despite having more then enough good looks from good areas. In terms of going to the hard areas off the puck well I think we could use some more help there but my main concern is more in the defensive ability of the top 6.

I definitely agree with more balance but thought we had that with adding another big body in Nino.

No real issues with the view on our defense. I think another issue with them is we don't have enough players who can absorb pressure and make a good play. JoMo can as can DeMelo. Snerg improved as the year went on but other then that just a lot of poor plays that result in the team turning the puck over and getting hemmed. Really I'm not so sure it's a big grit issue but more our grit doesn't have good enough skill. I wonder if they make a run at Dumba this summer.

 

[gojetsgo]

pronman has oliver moore falling to us in his mock draft, from what I read he is one of the better skaters in the draft which I think our prospect pool needs more of

 

[Whileee]

pronman has oliver moore falling to us in his mock draft, from what I read he is one of the better skaters in the draft which I think our prospect pool needs more of

I like Moore.

Lucius and McGroarty can improve their speed, but Lambert and Zhilkin are outstanding skaters.

On D, Salomonsson and Chisholm are very good skaters, too.

 

[ps241]

pronman has oliver moore falling to us in his mock draft, from what I read he is one of the better skaters in the draft which I think our prospect pool needs more of

Yea I have read he is one of the best skaters in the draft (if not the best) and also plays a pretty complete game. The more I look at this draft the more I think we will have a solid option at #18.

More than any other season I can remember I would like us to convert one of our potential trades (PLD, Schiefele, Helle) into either a mid 1st with a roster player (think Trouba or Ladd returns), or even better but much less likely we get a package traded to return us a top 8 pick but I really don’t see that happening in this draft.

 

[ps241]

I think he will be around us when we pick. One of the big complaints is his offensive production but having watched a lot of him this if his team mates had any finish we wouldn't worry about him. He reminds me a bit of Sebastian Aho. A really good two way center with slick hands in tight and great work ethic

One other thing here is that I think its a good idea to draft a centre that already plays a rounded two way game. If you aren’t going to cheat for offense in the WHL as the teams leading scorer then there is a great chance you will play a two way game in the NHL. Watching Aho and Barkov play defense is jaw dropping as a Jets fan. I long for the days of another Brian Little that was actually a 3 zone talent. One of the biggest issues with our Jets is our top 6 don’t defend well enough. I think its why fans are always confused and say “on paper” the Jets should be great because media and fans focus on what our core do pretty well on SC (score) and ignore what their glaring weakness are which is “get scored on” WAY to easily.

#18 draft selection inventory time: Centre (check), enough size (check), scoring (check), plays a two way game (check).

I would be happy on draft day if this was our pick. Not jumping up and down like I was for Perfetti but I would have a big smile.

 

[surixon]

One other thing here is that I think its a good idea to draft a centre that already plays a rounded two way game. If you aren’t going to cheat for offense in the WHL as the teams leading scorer then there is a great chance you will play a two way game in the NHL. Watching Aho and Barkov play defense is jaw dropping as a Jets fan. I long for the days of another Brian Little that was actually a 3 zone talent. One of the biggest issues with our Jets is our top 6 don’t defend well enough. I think its why fans are always confused and say “on paper” the Jets should be great because media and fans focus on what our core do pretty well on SC (score) and ignore what their glaring weakness are which is “get scored on” WAY to easily.

#18 draft selection inventory time: Centre (check), enough size (check), scoring (check), plays a two way game (check).

I would be happy on draft day if this was our pick. Not jumping up and down like I was for Perfetti but I would have a big smile.

I'd be fine with either him or Ritchie there. Center with size that play a rounded game.

 

[LowLefty]

I agree with many of these points, but would clarify a bit.

I was conveying some observations from a "plugged in" hockey person, who I think is balanced and has some insights based on working with some coaches / management people that are admired around here. It surprised me a bit, but on reflection I wonder about how much the drama of players like PLD and Trouba and maybe others wanting out, even if they are under control. It's a balance, but you don't want a team to be sapped by malcontent players. I think that was the main point.

I don't think that size is such an issue, but play style is. I think you can have some very skilled perimeter players, but you need some hard skill, too. I would say that Crosby and Jarvis are examples of smaller players that play a more rigged game in the hard areas, vs. a player like Ehlers and maybe Lambert. It's making sure you have players that really make the opposition work hard.

I do think that size and mobility really help D succeed, and there aren't that many small D that are skilled enough to really excel. Again, I think it's a balance. Right now, I would say the Jets' D are a bit too easy to play against.

Of course, the first criterion has to be talent, including hockey sense, followed closely by a strong work ethic. Virtanen fails in several of those areas.

The bold areas above spells it out in a nut shell - couldn't agree more.
It's not easy to accumulate a roster of players that fit that mold but that set up will win most nights, in any era.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

#18 draft selection inventory time: Centre (check), enough size (check), scoring (check), plays a two way game (check).

If he checks all those boxes, you gotta figure on adding another one...

Gone before our pick (check).

 

[ps241]

I'd be fine with either him or Ritchie there. Center with size that play a rounded game.

I havent followed Ritchie, what’s his story. Has he been a bit of a faller?

If he checks all those boxes, you gotta figure on adding another one...

Gone before our pick (check).

You know I think he will be gone but it is such a good draft he might be there. As Joe mentioned the criticism is that some feel his offensive upside is less awesome than other prospects in his zip code.