Romani has a lot of competition this year. Canada will be very deep. Unfortunately (for Romani), draft stock plays a huge role with Canada more than any other nation.
Prospect Info: The 2023-2024 Prospects Thread Pt. 3
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strattonius
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I don't think it's our coaching staff and management that this philosophy is exclusive to. Physical attributes often translate better at the NHL level and they always have. Sure there was a period of time where the 'stay at home' defender was probably overrated.
A prospect has to be an elite puck mover to translate that skillset to the NHL. Like if Ian Cole played in the AHL he would be slinging tape to tape passes and making excellent breakouts, but when you jump to the NHL it's his physical attributes he has to use to be an NHL regular. That's why it's difficult to look at a good puck moving D prospect in the AHL and say he'll be a good NHL'er because getting physically dominated in the NHL is the single largest set back a defenseman can have. So yeah, Kudryatsev may look like a better puck handler and player than D-Petey at the moment but that's doesn't really mean his game will translate that well.
MarkusNaslund19
Registered User
- Dec 28, 2005
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Only because it can.
Like Finland doesn't usually have 8 first rounders to choose from on their back end.
strattonius
Registered User
Exactly it. I don't think the selection process is pulling favoritism. I just think when you have that much depth from the 1st round people will find arbitrary examples of a guy that was selected because he was higher in the draft.
Bitz and Bites
Registered User
Man, that list is depressing considering none of them became anything more than fringe fourth liners.
I think EP2 probably tops out as a third pairing defensemen, and even then, he’s probably got like a 25% of doing that.
RobertKron
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- Sep 1, 2007
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I mean, like, hopefully?
Back right after Podkolzin had that one big playoffs, you'd have been yelled at if you suggested that in 2024 he wouldn't be at least a solid middle 6 contributor. Or like when Rathbone came out of college people would have been pissed if you said he'd have less than 30 NHL games by 25.
Prospects usually inspire optimism when they're prospects and then eight years later everyone is talking about "at least it's not like back when ____ was one of our best prospects!" Reality is that almost nobody turns out as good as they look when they're 19 or 20.
Josepho
i want the bartkowski thread back
People have always put way too much stock into the depth in prospect pools (even though the depth now is probably a bit better).
Our pool is way better now mainly because Willander/Silovs have pretty decent chances to become impact players at this point. Podkolzin's best bet was always just to be a decently physical 2nd line winger.
Our pool is way better now mainly because Willander/Silovs have pretty decent chances to become impact players at this point. Podkolzin's best bet was always just to be a decently physical 2nd line winger.
RobertKron
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- Sep 1, 2007
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Yeah, I don’t think goalies really count because they’re just like their own weird world, but basically it looks better at the moment because Willander looks like a not-quite-but-almost-blue chip.
krutovsdonut
eeyore
- Sep 25, 2016
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curious why you see his ceiling and odds so low? to me he clearly has top 4 potential either as a shutdown or sidekick. he can skate, he can shoot, he has developed steadily since his draft, and he's now a big physical player who uses his size. aside from the standard "can he handle the nhl pace" iq question he lacks the classic flaws that keep dman in the bottom pair slot.
krutovsdonut
eeyore
- Sep 25, 2016
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podz has never overcome his iq issues. this camp is his last chance with the canucks i think. he's almost at the point of needing a change of scenery/coach if he's ever going to find his feet in the nhl. i am skeptical he does because i am not sure he is smart enough to see what he needs to do without constant guidance. i used to think he was a sergeant but now i think he's a corporal at best and probably a private.
willander is sky is the limit but i have no handle on likely outcome.
On the odds, I don't think 25% is actually very low based on historical data. This is a third round pick that just finished his draft plus two year in tier two Sweden with a small sample in the AHL at the end of the year where I think he played bottom pairing minutes on the Abbotsford Canucks. So ya, I don't think pegging him at a 25% chance to make it as a bottom pairing defensemen in the NHL is that unfair.
In terms of ceiling, I would have expected him to play in the SHL last year and had a bigger impact in the AHL this year if he was tracking as a player with "real" potential to play as a top four defensemen. From a viewing perspective, and based on the WJCs, he seemed to struggle with the puck and didn't have a very good first pass.
With all that said, he stills is pretty young and may develop a ton more, so I am by no means saying he doesn't have any chance of being a top four defensemen only that the chance is pretty small at this point.
D-Petey may never be a big-time point producer on the blueline, but at 6'4 he'll probably ending up playing in the 215-220 range. More importantly, he's a nasty piece of business in his own zone. You could see it at the World Juniors, and during his brief stint with Abbotsford.
And looks to me that his mobility and skating aren't a huge red-flag, and his work in front of his own goal is intimidating at times. NHL teams will usually always make room for a d-man with that kind of pedigree in their bottom three. And after season or two in Abbotsford, who knows? Maybe he trends even higher than that.
D-men are notoriously late-developers. One of the guys the Canucks have playing on their roster this season--Vincent Desharnais--is a classic example of that. I'm optimistic we'll see an everyday d-man in D-Petey by age 24 or 25.
And looks to me that his mobility and skating aren't a huge red-flag, and his work in front of his own goal is intimidating at times. NHL teams will usually always make room for a d-man with that kind of pedigree in their bottom three. And after season or two in Abbotsford, who knows? Maybe he trends even higher than that.
D-men are notoriously late-developers. One of the guys the Canucks have playing on their roster this season--Vincent Desharnais--is a classic example of that. I'm optimistic we'll see an everyday d-man in D-Petey by age 24 or 25.
ChilliBilly
Registered User
And we need another EP in the line up to screw with people. For that matter we could use a few more Pettersson's ...
sting101
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- Feb 8, 2012
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Yes most prospects have the odds stacked against them. Is it necessary to marginalize all our prospects without high end draft positions?
While what you're saying is mostly accurate it does take the air out of the balloon if we just categorically reduce people/prospects with excellent tools to a fraction and likelihood. I'm glad you outlined this in another post.
EP2 has some puck distribution and recognition/engagement issues to improve upon before becoming a NHLer but fact is at his size with his mobility nastiness and tools he has more than just bottom pairing defenseman upside if he gets to NHL level. His profile is certainly one teams/coaches covet if he can be reliable in a shut down role.
It's important to temper expectations by likelihoods but equally as fun/important to have excitement by what's possible for prospects is it not?
Matthias Ekholm is still my top end comp for EP2 as unrealistic as it may be for others
Some of the best d-men in NHL history weren't first round draft picks. Even the aforementioned Mattias Ekholm was a fourth round draft pick (102nd overall) by Nashville. And one of the best d-men in Canuck history--Alex Edler--was a third round draft pick. And Roman Josi was a second round pick (38th overall). Seems to me Nashville also drafted Shea Weber well into the second round. Damn the Preds found some great d-men outside the first round.
So there is grounds for some optimism that the blueliners that the Canucks picked up in later rounds might pan out. It would be a huge bonus if prospects like D-Petey, Mynio, Kudryavtsev or even McWard, might eventually find their way on to the big-league roster. There's probably a far better chance of that happening, than with some of the forwards they picked up in later rounds.
So there is grounds for some optimism that the blueliners that the Canucks picked up in later rounds might pan out. It would be a huge bonus if prospects like D-Petey, Mynio, Kudryavtsev or even McWard, might eventually find their way on to the big-league roster. There's probably a far better chance of that happening, than with some of the forwards they picked up in later rounds.
I don't know why you can't both 1) celebrate, be optimistic and follow closely a particular prospect and 2) have realistic expectations for that prospect's outcome.
I don't really understand why some posters feel like they are being attacked personally when a prospect is "criticized" or whatever, but its a phenomenon that's been occurring here at HF for decades.
As an example, when Jake Virtanen played like shit in the WJCs I remember everyone on this board that criticized him at all were absolutely obliterated by many who were willing to defend him to the end.
sting101
Registered User
- Feb 8, 2012
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Most posters who have been around have complete understanding of the odds associated with prospects and pics. Having them repeated ad nauseam to contradict peoples positive upsides gets cold and dismissive.
I welcome criticism and arguments with conviction as it's the only way to create better outcomes and opinions. I don't take player perspectives personally.
And in contrast to your statement about Virtanen there are many who shit talk anyone who are not high end impact players. Prospect success is measured by the eye of the beholder it's not just 10yrs of clueless "defend them to the end" posting if expectations have altered and success for Podkolzin or Virtanen for example is 30-35pts and a heavy 2 way 3rd liner vs the top6 PF we were hoping for. Hoglander has been traded 100x this summer and shit talked?
Lekkerimaki and EP2 are players with a lot worth defending at this stage from my perspective.
The odds are always stacked against them. Most draft years are lucky to have 15 players with what would be considered impact. It's kinda pointless to say without first seeing how someone adapts to the AHL what he projects as and even then some patience is required.
As far as getting obliterated by criticisms of players go tell Moms how shitty their kid is and get back to me. Fans get attached...it is what it is. Everyone has different levels of skin/emotions in their fandom and that's kinda what we do here. You're a good poster Hodgy i usually agree with your takes
Mudshark50
Registered User
Puckpedia question for the forum. Is there a way to find a player's waiver status on that site?
There isn’t. One of the biggest features they are missing.
krutovsdonut
eeyore
- Sep 25, 2016
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but you weren't optimistic in this case. you suggested his ceiling was bottom pair.
i think we all have thin skins when we perceive our opinions are challenged and your post here is as good an example as the op. he was challenging your methodology of evaluating the player to have a low ceiing using broad percentage outcomes based on draft position. fwiw, that is what i was questioning with your original take also. you may be right about d-petey and the nhl outcome odds still being generally low but i thought your post also implied a much lower ceiling than i see with this particular player which is a different thing. using the general odds like that i find kind of reductionist and unhelpful. i agree you could do an analysis to say the odds are in general low for third rounders who actually make it of being more than replacement, but i also think you can look at a guy like brisebois pretty early on and say "that guy has a ceiling of bottom pair" based on his individual attributes and not just the odds, and conversely you can looks at d-petey and see he has more upside. doesn't mean he will get there, but for now it is still there.
The bolded isn't actually true though, and its why @MS relatively recent post regarding Lekkerimaki's prospects generated pages and pages of debate.
Sorry, didn't mean to suggest you did. But it does seem like some posters do.
Couple things:
1) I said his chances of become more than a bottom pairing defensemen (i.e., top four) were pretty small which I think is quite fair; and
2) my point isn't that you need to be optimistic, only that you could be optimistic while also still have reasonable expectations.
As stated above, I thought his chances of becoming more than a bottom pairing defensemen were pretty small. This is based on historical data, along with his progress since being drafted, and my viewings of him at the WJCs.
Surely there has to be enough former employees of 'Cap Geek' and 'Cap Friendly' around to hire and beef up the 'Puckpedia' site? But I suppose these sites are hard to maintain and make work financially, so it may take some time to build it up.
ChilliBilly
Registered User
Not sure what you call impact. Of the Canucks 23 roster players only 1 has less than 100 games played (Silovs), and 6 have less than 200 games played. I assume you would agree with the general assessment that 100 games is a legit NHL career, and 200 games is a NHL regular player. Simple math says 16 x 32 reams is around 500 NHL players with legit careers. The median NHL career is 5 years. Top players get about 12.
In a round about way, what I am saying is that most years produce 30 - 40 players that will end up having NHL careers of more than 200 games.
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