GDT: The 2022 NHL Entry Draft Thread

Joe Hallenback

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Mar 4, 2005
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My worry with Geekie is he may be a bit of Dylan Strome. Maybe I undersell his skating but it ALWAYS worries me when there are comments about good for his size plus large centres often dominate in junior.

I think if you got a Dylan Strome at 10 to 15 you can be pretty happy. I think that would actually work for us. Mind you it took some time for Strome to come around but he has been pretty good I think. Not 3rd overall good mind you
 

ps241

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Mar 10, 2010
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Howard isn't as skillful as Connor but he has a lot of good tools. He has good speed and he gets into good positions. I wouldn't call him dynamic and that is why he is ranked behind some of those other guys. He will be a pretty good NHL player some day.

McGroarty is fairly similar except he is a bull out there. Lots of offense from him but his skating isn't pretty. I like both of them in the mid to late 1st though

Cooley and then Nazar have that NHL speed where they can pull from people and play at a high level. It probably why you see them ranked higher.

Gauthier is rising in the draft. Big power forward who can score. So is Snuggerud who is another big good skating shooter.

All 3 of those guys, Nazar,Gauthier and Howard would be in our range. So would the 2 USNTDP Right D Ryan Chesley and Seamus Casey. Both of those guys are kind of polarizing as well for different reasons

I want to throw a name out there, Marco Kasper. Think he might be name to watch.

For some of the WHL guys outside those Winnipeg Ice kids. I really like Kevin Korchinski. Had to chance to watch a couple of games recently and he really stood out. I think he has all the tools and numbers we like to see for me out of the group of WHL D men that include Him,Lindgren,Mateychuk and Pickering. I think he moves up by the end of year rankings and we see him around our 1st pick range

One guy I like too the more I see of him is Jagger Firkus. He doesn't get much love likely because of his slight size but dare I say he is Brayden Point-esque?

Want to also mention Rieger Lorenz who plays in the AJHL for Okotoks and is going to Denver next season. One of my scout friends really likes him and thinks he would be a sneaky good pick in the 2nd round. Good sized skating center who plays with jam and has nice soft hands

Firkus has 80 points in 66 games which is good production for a 5’10“ 150 pound centre.
 

jimsabo21

Registered User
Jul 2, 2011
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546
Howard isn't as skillful as Connor but he has a lot of good tools. He has good speed and he gets into good positions. I wouldn't call him dynamic and that is why he is ranked behind some of those other guys. He will be a pretty good NHL player some day.

McGroarty is fairly similar except he is a bull out there. Lots of offense from him but his skating isn't pretty. I like both of them in the mid to late 1st though

Cooley and then Nazar have that NHL speed where they can pull from people and play at a high level. It probably why you see them ranked higher.

Gauthier is rising in the draft. Big power forward who can score. So is Snuggerud who is another big good skating shooter.

All 3 of those guys, Nazar,Gauthier and Howard would be in our range. So would the 2 USNTDP Right D Ryan Chesley and Seamus Casey. Both of those guys are kind of polarizing as well for different reasons

I want to throw a name out there, Marco Kasper. Think he might be name to watch.

For some of the WHL guys outside those Winnipeg Ice kids. I really like Kevin Korchinski. Had to chance to watch a couple of games recently and he really stood out. I think he has all the tools and numbers we like to see for me out of the group of WHL D men that include Him,Lindgren,Mateychuk and Pickering. I think he moves up by the end of year rankings and we see him around our 1st pick range

One guy I like too the more I see of him is Jagger Firkus. He doesn't get much love likely because of his slight size but dare I say he is Brayden Point-esque?

Want to also mention Rieger Lorenz who plays in the AJHL for Okotoks and is going to Denver next season. One of my scout friends really likes him and thinks he would be a sneaky good pick in the 2nd round. Good sized skating center who plays with jam and has nice soft hands

When I watch Isaac Howard, I see lots of different types of *skill* - he just attacks differently than Nazar. Nazar is a bit more smooth and beautiful to watch (like Barzal, for example) but that doesn't always lead to more production. Isaac Howard more *darty* so not the same *silk* in his movements, but equally as effective when it comes to putting up big numbers, so a bit more Kyle Connor / Pastrnak / Larkin type.

I'm always surprised when I see Nazar ranked so much higher than Howard. Cooley makes more sense because he's a responsible two way centre with all the same skills as the above mentioned two wingers.

Joe - how would you rank the American forwards?
 

jimsabo21

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Jul 2, 2011
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Great info in your last few posts @jimsabo21, really appreciated!

What are your thoughts on why scouts have Howard lower than Nazar considering the offensive numbers? Things in his game maybe not transitioning as well? I've seen Gauthier higher than them as well in some rankings.

Random question - The Rangers make it to the 3rd round and the Jets have a pick near the end of the 1st. Both Miroshichenko and Howard are there. Who are you taking and why? :)

The only thing I can come up with on why Nazar is always ranked 5-10 picks higher than Howard is that Nazar shoots right which is more rare?? Both are very dynamic and fun to watch.

Miroshnichenko is probably better than most. If he's still around late first round, and Jets have NYR pick (and assuming he's responding well to his treatments which would be known on the draft floor) - you just have to take Miroshnichenko.
 

jimsabo21

Registered User
Jul 2, 2011
282
546
If you haven't noticed yet, I gravitate heavy towards Forwards in the first round because I find it near impossible to evaluate defensemen with the naked eye unless they have an incredible dynamic element like Makar or Dahlin for example.

So, I'm purposefully ignoring Dmen in those ranges because I just don't have a good opinion on them. I can't decipher the value of Jiricek over Mateychuk or Pickering for example.

I'll try to share my thoughts later today on the top end CHL forwards (Wright / Savoie / Geekie / etc)

I'll also share some of my thoughts on the Europeans (Slafkovsky / Kemell / Lambert / Lekkerimaki / Mesar / Kasper / Ohgren)
 

Joe Hallenback

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Mar 4, 2005
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When I watch Isaac Howard, I see lots of different types of *skill* - he just attacks differently than Nazar. Nazar is a bit more smooth and beautiful to watch (like Barzal, for example) but that doesn't always lead to more production. Isaac Howard more *darty* so not the same *silk* in his movements, but equally as effective when it comes to putting up big numbers, so a bit more Kyle Connor / Pastrnak / Larkin type.

I'm always surprised when I see Nazar ranked so much higher than Howard. Cooley makes more sense because he's a responsible two way centre with all the same skills as the above mentioned two wingers.

Joe - how would you rank the American forwards?

I have them like this

Cooley


Nazar

Gauthier
Howard
Snuggerud
McGoarty

I think they kind of fan out that way. The bottom grouping would be personal liking but I think Gauthier is going to separate from the pack. Howard is a guy who seems to put up points though, I agree that he is going to be a good useful player for someone. Agree with the comment about Nazar being a right hand shot and it gives him more reason to like him a bit more
 

surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
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Winnipeg
I'd be fine with Geekie in the 13-15 range. To me he's still a bit raw but has some real nice tools. Nice hands, hard shot and good vision and playmaking. His skating is fine imo. There is some Scheifele awkwardness I'm his game but if he's developed well and can iron out some things I think you have a good physical top 6 center.
 

voyageur

Hockey fanatic
Jul 10, 2011
10,459
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On a lot of boards I see Jonathan Lekkerimäki in our draft range. With the lack of right hand shots in the forward group, is he a good target? Stats seem to indicate a shooter. With only 3 years left on Ehlers contract, is he a potential linemate or replacement?
 

Joe Hallenback

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Mar 4, 2005
15,616
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On a lot of boards I see Jonathan Lekkerimäki in our draft range. With the lack of right hand shots in the forward group, is he a good target? Stats seem to indicate a shooter. With only 3 years left on Ehlers contract, is he a potential linemate or replacement?

Really high end goal scorer. I would say from what I have heard he is an average skater. But he has an NHL shot already
 
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Huffer

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Jul 16, 2010
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For OHL guys, and under the assumption we get a 2nd 1st, any thoughts on these guys in the late 20's?

 

jimsabo21

Registered User
Jul 2, 2011
282
546
On a lot of boards I see Jonathan Lekkerimäki in our draft range. With the lack of right hand shots in the forward group, is he a good target? Stats seem to indicate a shooter. With only 3 years left on Ehlers contract, is he a potential linemate or replacement?

I think if Lekkerimaki is available to the Jets, the run to the podium to select him. I have him as the 2nd best European forward only behind Slafkovsky. Yep, better than Kemell, Lambert, Yurov and Mirossnichenko.

This guy is essentially Elias Petterson
 

jimsabo21

Registered User
Jul 2, 2011
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546
This is my personal ranking of the CHL forwards (WHL, OHL and QMJHL) along with some drivel as to why I ranked them this way:

1. Shane Wright

Just can't ignore the pedigree. Granted exceptional status to play in OHL as a 15 year old and SCORED 39 GOALS THAT YEAR! Prior to that, scored 150 pts in 72 games as a 14 year old playing AAA hockey with 15 year old kids. Leads the OHL draft eligible player with 94 pts this season. No brainer, Shane Wright is the best CHL player available.

Some say he's a defensively responsible Centre and is compared to Toews / Bergereon. I see more offensive upside and will likely exceed both those players in stardom.

2. Matthew Savoie

Again, I love a history of scoring. Savoie has always been the best in Western Canada amongst his age group and continues to be so today. As a 13 year old he scored 97 pts in 30 games CSSHL U15 league which was 2nd only to Dylan Guenther (who's a year older and was a top pick in last year's draft). The next season, he DOUBLE AGE ADVANCED to the U18 CCSHL team (he was only 14 years old) and managed to put up 71 pts in 31 games.

As a 15 year old, Savoie applied for exceptional status to join the WHL a year early. His bid was ultimately denied; however, he did manage to get a few games in the the Winnipeg Ice on an emergency recall basis. The Covid cancelled season had him playing with the Dubuque Flighting where he put up 38 pts in 34 games to lead his team in pts per game average. Pretty good for a doulbe underager playing in the USHL.

Of course, this season he has 90 points in 65 games to lead all draft eligible players in the WHL (almost identicaly to Shane Wright's season in the OHL).

Savoie is smaller listed at 5'9 with incredible edge work, great hands and dynamic playmaking ability. I see alot of Johnny Gaudreau in his game.


3. David Goyette

Did I mention I love history of scoring? Honestly, this kid has *IT*! In the Ottawa / Hull region's AAA hockey circuit, he scored a whopping 94 pts in ONLY 30 games as a 14 year old kid. His next season, we went on to play Prep Academy Hockey in the US. He scored 153 pts in 65 games! That was 30 pts more than Frank Nazar who's considered in top 10 player in this draft class. Of course, last year's cancelled OHL season meant he played nearly no hockey at all.

This season (his rookie year in OHL) - he has decent numbers: 35 goals / 73 pts. However, CONTEXT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT in this case. His Sudbury Wolves team is AWFUL and in full rebuild mode. They are amongst the worst teams in the OHL. They scored amongst the few goals. They have no notable drafted players in their roster. He is in every measurable way, their ENTIRE team. Gets no help whatsoever. He's a 17 year old rookie shouldering this load.

Goyette's 73 pts is 23 pts HIGHER than their 2nd best forward (only 50 pts) - which is pretty sad. Of his 73 pts, only 15 of them have been power play meaning he's scored 58 even strength points which places him almost exactly in the same ballpark as Savoie / Wright (even strength contributions).

His game is electrifying. He's fast and carries the puck with confidence. He creates a bunch of turnovers with his relentless backcheck and active stick. Stylistically, he plays like Claude Giroux.


4. Conor Geekie

Conor was the 2nd overall pick in the WHL draft after Matt Savoie. He scored 86 pts in 31 games as a 15 year old playing AAA hockey. His 70 pts this year are fine (similar to Goyette); however, unlike Goyette, he plays on the best team in the entire CHL, on a team filled with talent (Savoie, McClennon, Milne, Benson, etc). Also unlike Goyette (2nd best player had 50 pts) - the Winnipeg Ice had 7 players score more than 60 pts. That should have led to Geekie inflating his stats total by simply being on the ice with this much talent. This is similar to the 1980s Edmonton Oilers effect.

I think Geekie is very misunderstood as a player. He's big (6'5) and *can be* physical, but that's not really his game. I see much more Joe Thornton - he's a play maker with a bit of dazzle. The difference is Joe Thornton put up 122 pts his draft year whereas Geekie put up 70 on an elite team.

I've been to a bunch of Ice games this year. Love his confidence. Love the hands and vision. I just don't know why it's not translating on the scoresheet given his massive physical advantage over much smaller WHL players. I really want to believe in Geekie, but am a bit skeptical as of this moment.

5. Jordan Dumais

Who??? JORDAN DUMAIS. He's the 2022 NHL draft version of Debrincat / Point (late picks due to size / speed concerns).

Jordan Dumais is 5'9 and has average speed. That's honestly the only negatives. Everything else is 10/10.

Where to start? As a 17 year, he had 92 pts in the QMJHL and has FIVE GAMES to play. He's projected to topple 100 pts. Over the last 12 seasons, the ONLY OTHER 17 YEAR OLDS to score 100 pts in the QMJHL: Huberdeau (105 pts), Drouin (105 pts), Lafreniere (105 pts), Ehlers (104 pts). Pretty good, right?

So, he must be on a stacked team and benefitting from great teammates? Well, the 2nd highest scorer on the team is 20 year old Flyers draft pick Desnoyers who has 75 pts. The 3rd highest scorer has 57 pts. Of note, he plays on same team as Zach L'Heureux (1st round pick last year) who only has 56 pts.

Has he done this in the past or flash in the pan? Yep, he has. He played in the same Prep Academy team as David Goyette. He put up 125 pts in 50 games which (again) exceeded Frank Nazar who played in same league.

Dumais has a game that reminds me a bit of Cole Perfetti. He plays chess while everyone else on ice is playing checkers. Crafty, clever plays. Nice reads, etc.

6. Del Bel Belluz
7. Jagger Firkus
7. Owen Beck

*Do NOT draft: Nathan Gaucher
 

ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
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Mar 10, 2010
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This is my personal ranking of the CHL forwards (WHL, OHL and QMJHL) along with some drivel as to why I ranked them this way:

1. Shane Wright

Just can't ignore the pedigree. Granted exceptional status to play in OHL as a 15 year old and SCORED 39 GOALS THAT YEAR! Prior to that, scored 150 pts in 72 games as a 14 year old playing AAA hockey with 15 year old kids. Leads the OHL draft eligible player with 94 pts this season. No brainer, Shane Wright is the best CHL player available.

Some say he's a defensively responsible Centre and is compared to Toews / Bergereon. I see more offensive upside and will likely exceed both those players in stardom.

2. Matthew Savoie

Again, I love a history of scoring. Savoie has always been the best in Western Canada amongst his age group and continues to be so today. As a 13 year old he scored 97 pts in 30 games CSSHL U15 league which was 2nd only to Dylan Guenther (who's a year older and was a top pick in last year's draft). The next season, he DOUBLE AGE ADVANCED to the U18 CCSHL team (he was only 14 years old) and managed to put up 71 pts in 31 games.

As a 15 year old, Savoie applied for exceptional status to join the WHL a year early. His bid was ultimately denied; however, he did manage to get a few games in the the Winnipeg Ice on an emergency recall basis. The Covid cancelled season had him playing with the Dubuque Flighting where he put up 38 pts in 34 games to lead his team in pts per game average. Pretty good for a doulbe underager playing in the USHL.

Of course, this season he has 90 points in 65 games to lead all draft eligible players in the WHL (almost identicaly to Shane Wright's season in the OHL).

Savoie is smaller listed at 5'9 with incredible edge work, great hands and dynamic playmaking ability. I see alot of Johnny Gaudreau in his game.


3. David Goyette

Did I mention I love history of scoring? Honestly, this kid has *IT*! In the Ottawa / Hull region's AAA hockey circuit, he scored a whopping 94 pts in ONLY 30 games as a 14 year old kid. His next season, we went on to play Prep Academy Hockey in the US. He scored 153 pts in 65 games! That was 30 pts more than Frank Nazar who's considered in top 10 player in this draft class. Of course, last year's cancelled OHL season meant he played nearly no hockey at all.

This season (his rookie year in OHL) - he has decent numbers: 35 goals / 73 pts. However, CONTEXT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT in this case. His Sudbury Wolves team is AWFUL and in full rebuild mode. They are amongst the worst teams in the OHL. They scored amongst the few goals. They have no notable drafted players in their roster. He is in every measurable way, their ENTIRE team. Gets no help whatsoever. He's a 17 year old rookie shouldering this load.

Goyette's 73 pts is 23 pts HIGHER than their 2nd best forward (only 50 pts) - which is pretty sad. Of his 73 pts, only 15 of them have been power play meaning he's scored 58 even strength points which places him almost exactly in the same ballpark as Savoie / Wright (even strength contributions).

His game is electrifying. He's fast and carries the puck with confidence. He creates a bunch of turnovers with his relentless backcheck and active stick. Stylistically, he plays like Claude Giroux.


4. Conor Geekie

Conor was the 2nd overall pick in the WHL draft after Matt Savoie. He scored 86 pts in 31 games as a 15 year old playing AAA hockey. His 70 pts this year are fine (similar to Goyette); however, unlike Goyette, he plays on the best team in the entire CHL, on a team filled with talent (Savoie, McClennon, Milne, Benson, etc). Also unlike Goyette (2nd best player had 50 pts) - the Winnipeg Ice had 7 players score more than 60 pts. That should have led to Geekie inflating his stats total by simply being on the ice with this much talent. This is similar to the 1980s Edmonton Oilers effect.

I think Geekie is very misunderstood as a player. He's big (6'5) and *can be* physical, but that's not really his game. I see much more Joe Thornton - he's a play maker with a bit of dazzle. The difference is Joe Thornton put up 122 pts his draft year whereas Geekie put up 70 on an elite team.

I've been to a bunch of Ice games this year. Love his confidence. Love the hands and vision. I just don't know why it's not translating on the scoresheet given his massive physical advantage over much smaller WHL players. I really want to believe in Geekie, but am a bit skeptical as of this moment.

5. Jordan Dumais

Who??? JORDAN DUMAIS. He's the 2022 NHL draft version of Debrincat / Point (late picks due to size / speed concerns).

Jordan Dumais is 5'9 and has average speed. That's honestly the only negatives. Everything else is 10/10.

Where to start? As a 17 year, he had 92 pts in the QMJHL and has FIVE GAMES to play. He's projected to topple 100 pts. Over the last 12 seasons, the ONLY OTHER 17 YEAR OLDS to score 100 pts in the QMJHL: Huberdeau (105 pts), Drouin (105 pts), Lafreniere (105 pts), Ehlers (104 pts). Pretty good, right?

So, he must be on a stacked team and benefitting from great teammates? Well, the 2nd highest scorer on the team is 20 year old Flyers draft pick Desnoyers who has 75 pts. The 3rd highest scorer has 57 pts. Of note, he plays on same team as Zach L'Heureux (1st round pick last year) who only has 56 pts.

Has he done this in the past or flash in the pan? Yep, he has. He played in the same Prep Academy team as David Goyette. He put up 125 pts in 50 games which (again) exceeded Frank Nazar who played in same league.

Dumais has a game that reminds me a bit of Cole Perfetti. He plays chess while everyone else on ice is playing checkers. Crafty, clever plays. Nice reads, etc.

6. Del Bel Belluz
7. Jagger Firkus
7. Owen Beck

*Do NOT draft: Nathan Gaucher

Excellent post!!

Very interesting that Dumais and Goyette don’t seem to to be appearing in the top 60 of a couple of my go to publications. Good recaps and now you are getting me stoked for the draft. I love when the Black Book comes out and I get to study more.
 
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jimsabo21

Registered User
Jul 2, 2011
282
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Excellent post!!

Very interesting that Dumais and Goyette don’t seem to to be appearing in the top 60 of a couple of my go to publications. Good recaps and now you are getting me stoked for the draft. I love when the Black Book comes out and I get to study more.

David Goyette will almost certainly go in the 1st round. Most rankings are mid-season (so December/January) and he's really risen over the last four months whereby he's 2nd only to Wright in OHL (draft eligible) scoring since Jan 1st. He's had a fantastic end of season and that will likely be reflected in the updated rankings. Craig Button has him at 17 in his latest March ranking.

Of note, Goyette was also one of the few standouts in the CHL top prospects game for team Red and actually led them with 4 shots on goal.

Even strength - his point total are nearly identical to Wright / Savoie. The kid is getting hammered for no other reason than having a really BAD team around him.

Silver lining, with the Sudbury Wolves not qualifying for the post season, that made Goyette available for Canada's U18 team. The tournament starts this weekend in Germany, and most games will be on TSN.

Notable interesting players to watch:

Finland:

Joakim Kemell (expected to go 4-12 in NHL draft)

*Brad Lambert not playing due to 2003 birthday

Sweden:

Jonathan Lekkerimaki (expected to go 6-14 in NHL draft)
Liam Ohgren (expected to go 12-24 in NHL draft)
Noah Ostlund (expected to go 15-32 in NHL draft)

USA:

Logan Cooley (2-4)
Frank Nazar (5-12)
Isaac Howard (10-24)
Cutter Gauthier (12-24)
Jimmy Snuggerud (12-24)
Rutger McGroarty (16-32)

Canada:

David Goyette (16-42)
Connor Bedard (1-3 2023 draft)
Adam Fantilli (2-5 2023 draft)

KEY PLAYERS MISSING:

* Every Canadian draft eligible prospect that qualified for post season in WHL, OHL and QMJHL (Wright, Savoie, Geekie, etc)

* Russia in banned from IIHF competition, so no viewings of Danila Yurov (5-12), Miroshichenko (illness), Gleb Trikozov (14-32)

* Slovakia got relagated to lower pool, so not participating. That means no Slafkovski (2-8), Nemec (3-10) or Mesar (10-24)
 

WolfHouse

Registered User
Oct 4, 2020
10,730
16,657
This is my personal ranking of the CHL forwards (WHL, OHL and QMJHL) along with some drivel as to why I ranked them this way:

1. Shane Wright

Just can't ignore the pedigree. Granted exceptional status to play in OHL as a 15 year old and SCORED 39 GOALS THAT YEAR! Prior to that, scored 150 pts in 72 games as a 14 year old playing AAA hockey with 15 year old kids. Leads the OHL draft eligible player with 94 pts this season. No brainer, Shane Wright is the best CHL player available.

Some say he's a defensively responsible Centre and is compared to Toews / Bergereon. I see more offensive upside and will likely exceed both those players in stardom.

2. Matthew Savoie

Again, I love a history of scoring. Savoie has always been the best in Western Canada amongst his age group and continues to be so today. As a 13 year old he scored 97 pts in 30 games CSSHL U15 league which was 2nd only to Dylan Guenther (who's a year older and was a top pick in last year's draft). The next season, he DOUBLE AGE ADVANCED to the U18 CCSHL team (he was only 14 years old) and managed to put up 71 pts in 31 games.

As a 15 year old, Savoie applied for exceptional status to join the WHL a year early. His bid was ultimately denied; however, he did manage to get a few games in the the Winnipeg Ice on an emergency recall basis. The Covid cancelled season had him playing with the Dubuque Flighting where he put up 38 pts in 34 games to lead his team in pts per game average. Pretty good for a doulbe underager playing in the USHL.

Of course, this season he has 90 points in 65 games to lead all draft eligible players in the WHL (almost identicaly to Shane Wright's season in the OHL).

Savoie is smaller listed at 5'9 with incredible edge work, great hands and dynamic playmaking ability. I see alot of Johnny Gaudreau in his game.


3. David Goyette

Did I mention I love history of scoring? Honestly, this kid has *IT*! In the Ottawa / Hull region's AAA hockey circuit, he scored a whopping 94 pts in ONLY 30 games as a 14 year old kid. His next season, we went on to play Prep Academy Hockey in the US. He scored 153 pts in 65 games! That was 30 pts more than Frank Nazar who's considered in top 10 player in this draft class. Of course, last year's cancelled OHL season meant he played nearly no hockey at all.

This season (his rookie year in OHL) - he has decent numbers: 35 goals / 73 pts. However, CONTEXT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT in this case. His Sudbury Wolves team is AWFUL and in full rebuild mode. They are amongst the worst teams in the OHL. They scored amongst the few goals. They have no notable drafted players in their roster. He is in every measurable way, their ENTIRE team. Gets no help whatsoever. He's a 17 year old rookie shouldering this load.

Goyette's 73 pts is 23 pts HIGHER than their 2nd best forward (only 50 pts) - which is pretty sad. Of his 73 pts, only 15 of them have been power play meaning he's scored 58 even strength points which places him almost exactly in the same ballpark as Savoie / Wright (even strength contributions).

His game is electrifying. He's fast and carries the puck with confidence. He creates a bunch of turnovers with his relentless backcheck and active stick. Stylistically, he plays like Claude Giroux.


4. Conor Geekie

Conor was the 2nd overall pick in the WHL draft after Matt Savoie. He scored 86 pts in 31 games as a 15 year old playing AAA hockey. His 70 pts this year are fine (similar to Goyette); however, unlike Goyette, he plays on the best team in the entire CHL, on a team filled with talent (Savoie, McClennon, Milne, Benson, etc). Also unlike Goyette (2nd best player had 50 pts) - the Winnipeg Ice had 7 players score more than 60 pts. That should have led to Geekie inflating his stats total by simply being on the ice with this much talent. This is similar to the 1980s Edmonton Oilers effect.

I think Geekie is very misunderstood as a player. He's big (6'5) and *can be* physical, but that's not really his game. I see much more Joe Thornton - he's a play maker with a bit of dazzle. The difference is Joe Thornton put up 122 pts his draft year whereas Geekie put up 70 on an elite team.

I've been to a bunch of Ice games this year. Love his confidence. Love the hands and vision. I just don't know why it's not translating on the scoresheet given his massive physical advantage over much smaller WHL players. I really want to believe in Geekie, but am a bit skeptical as of this moment.

5. Jordan Dumais

Who??? JORDAN DUMAIS. He's the 2022 NHL draft version of Debrincat / Point (late picks due to size / speed concerns).

Jordan Dumais is 5'9 and has average speed. That's honestly the only negatives. Everything else is 10/10.

Where to start? As a 17 year, he had 92 pts in the QMJHL and has FIVE GAMES to play. He's projected to topple 100 pts. Over the last 12 seasons, the ONLY OTHER 17 YEAR OLDS to score 100 pts in the QMJHL: Huberdeau (105 pts), Drouin (105 pts), Lafreniere (105 pts), Ehlers (104 pts). Pretty good, right?

So, he must be on a stacked team and benefitting from great teammates? Well, the 2nd highest scorer on the team is 20 year old Flyers draft pick Desnoyers who has 75 pts. The 3rd highest scorer has 57 pts. Of note, he plays on same team as Zach L'Heureux (1st round pick last year) who only has 56 pts.

Has he done this in the past or flash in the pan? Yep, he has. He played in the same Prep Academy team as David Goyette. He put up 125 pts in 50 games which (again) exceeded Frank Nazar who played in same league.

Dumais has a game that reminds me a bit of Cole Perfetti. He plays chess while everyone else on ice is playing checkers. Crafty, clever plays. Nice reads, etc.

6. Del Bel Belluz
7. Jagger Firkus
7. Owen Beck

*Do NOT draft: Nathan Gaucher
I want del del belluz and jagger firkus just for the names
 
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jimsabo21

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Jul 2, 2011
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Excellent post!!

Very interesting that Dumais and Goyette don’t seem to to be appearing in the top 60 of a couple of my go to publications. Good recaps and now you are getting me stoked for the draft. I love when the Black Book comes out and I get to study more.

Last note of Jordan Dumais.

Last year, I made a very vocal and loud case for Logan Stankoven (5'8) who was also disrespected on most major rankings. Similar to Dumais (and Goyette), Stankoven had always outproduced his peers. He scored more than Dylan Guenther in the CCSHL for two consecutive seasons. He outscored Guenther for team Canada in International play on every occasion. Yet Dylan Guenther was selected 9th overall by Arizona and Stankoven dropped to the 2nd round where Dallas picked him up at 46.

This year, Logan Stankoven leads the WHL with 1.76 pts per game. His 104 points once again beats Dylan Guenther (by over 10 pts). Again, this is WITH NO HELP FROM TEAMMATES. After Stankoven, Kamloops' next highest scorer has 60 pts. He won the scoring title on his team by 44 points!!!

When will NHL scouts learn! Caufield, Debrincat, Point, Kucherov, Kaprisov all got severely undervalued for nothing more than their height. This happens each and every draft and they vow to never do it again. Yet here we have Jordan Dumais scoring in the QMJHL at historic rates and he's not even listed as a first round consideration.
 

ps241

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Last note of Jordan Dumais.

Last year, I made a very vocal and loud case for Logan Stankoven (5'8) who was also disrespected on most major rankings. Similar to Dumais (and Goyette), Stankoven had always outproduced his peers. He scored more than Dylan Guenther in the CCSHL for two consecutive seasons. He outscored Guenther for team Canada in International play on every occasion. Yet Dylan Guenther was selected 9th overall by Arizona and Stankoven dropped to the 2nd round where Dallas picked him up at 46.

This year, Logan Stankoven leads the WHL with 1.76 pts per game. His 104 points once again beats Dylan Guenther (by over 10 pts). Again, this is WITH NO HELP FROM TEAMMATES. After Stankoven, Kamloops' next highest scorer has 60 pts. He won the scoring title on his team by 44 points!!!

When will NHL scouts learn! Caufield, Debrincat, Point, Kucherov, Kaprisov all got severely undervalued for nothing more than their height. This happens each and every draft and they vow to never do it again. Yet here we have Jordan Dumais scoring in the QMJHL at historic rates and he's not even listed as a first round consideration.

Yea I had mentioned in the around the league thread that Dallas nailed it last draft. I have to admit I was really scratching my head when they took Wyatt Johnston in the first round when his production wasn’t good at all last season then this season on Windsor he drops 124 points in 68 games and the next closest player on his team is 40 points behind him. Throw in Stankoven in the 2nd round and that is some tidy work.

I appreciate your player reviews. Do you watch allot of junior hockey?
 
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jimsabo21

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Yea I had mentioned in the around the league thread that Dallas nailed it last draft. I have to admit I was really scratching my head when they took Wyatt Johnston in the first round when his production wasn’t good at all last season then this season on Windsor he drops 124 points in 68 games and the next closest player on his team is 40 points behind him. Throw in Stankoven in the 2nd round and that is some tidy work.

I appreciate your player reviews. Do you watch allot of junior hockey?

I go to a bunch of Winnipeg Ice games. That's pretty much it for live viewings.

Other than that, I'm fairly obsessive with watching AM Scouting (all shifts for multiple games) / Scouching Reports / EP Rinkside / Wolf Scouting etc ... essentially, anything that's more than a players highlight package.

The problem with a highlight package is that it's just all goals. The majority of great things you do in hockey may not end up as a goal, yet are more interesting to watch. I have to create 10 chances to score one goal. The 'shift by shift' videos show the amount of chances a player actually gets in a game, which is often more useful than simply watching a guy tap in a rebound.

I'll say something else that's a core belief of mine: A big chunk of NHL players are interchangeable parts and don't require draft capital to acquire. The KHL / SEL / Liga / AHL are littered with 6'1, 200 lbs players that skate well and can shoot a puck. Let's call them all Jansen Harkins or Dominic Toninato. The difference between Harkins / Toninato getting 10 pts a year vs 40/50 pts per year is simply opportunity. If Harkins played 82 games with PLD and Kyle Conner + was given PP time, I have no doubt he can score 50 pts. As could Toninato, Barron, Armia, Galiardi, and about 500 other players. They're all available in free agency, the waiver wire, or via recruiting from other leagues.

The problem is you want 70-90 pts (not 50 pts) out of top line players and PP guys. So it never makes sense to waste draft capital on a player that's projected to simply become an average NHL player. There's an overabundance of *average* available for cheap.

ALWAYS DRAFT FOR SOMETHING SPECIAL. If they bust, who cares? Why waste a draft pick on a *safe pick* when you could have simply acquired the same type of player for free?

What's special? Ehlers. Connor. Scheifele. Perfetti. Petan. Burmistrov.

I purposefully included Burmistrov and Petan. Yes, both busts. But both had a special skill too. That's a worthwhile gamble. The upside was worth drafting for.

When I'm watching players, I'm looking for that something special that's rare in players. Skill, IQ, fluidity. I'm not just looking for a player than can go up and down a wing and bang bodies. That's too easy to acquire in Free Agency.

Sometimes the skill works out (Kaprisov, Point, Kurcherov, Debrincat). Sometimes it doesn't (Petan, Burmistrov). That's nearly impossible to decipher when they're 18 years old. But they all had a very unique skillset that made them worthwhile picks.

I just hate when people pick low producing Forwards from junior leagues thinking their game will better *translate* at the NHL level. I mean, if their huge size doesn't give them an edge against smaller junior players, what makes them think it will work out in the NHL? Boston learned the hard way in 2015 with three brutal picks of low producers.
 
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Adam da bomb

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I go to a bunch of Winnipeg Ice games. That's pretty much it for live viewings.

Other than that, I'm fairly obsessive with watching AM Scouting (all shifts for multiple games) / Scouching Reports / EP Rinkside / Wolf Scouting etc ... essentially, anything that's more than a players highlight package.

The problem with a highlight package is that it's just all goals. The majority of great things you do in hockey may not end up as a goal, yet are more interesting to watch. I have to create 10 chances to score one goal. The 'shift by shift' videos show the amount of chances a player actually gets in a game, which is often more useful than simply watching a guy tap in a rebound.

I'll say something else that's a core belief of mine: A big chunk of NHL players are interchangeable parts and don't require draft capital to acquire. The KHL / SEL / Liga / AHL are littered with 6'1, 200 lbs players that skate well and can shoot a puck. Let's call them all Jansen Harkins or Dominic Toninato. The difference between Harkins / Toninato getting 10 pts a year vs 40/50 pts per year is simply opportunity. If Harkins played 82 games with PLD and Kyle Conner + was given PP time, I have no doubt he can score 50 pts. As could Toninato, Barron, Armia, Galiardi, and about 500 other players. They're all available in free agency, the waiver wire, or via recruiting from other leagues.

The problem is you want 70-90 pts (not 50 pts) out of top line players and PP guys. So it never makes sense to waste draft capital on a player that's projected to simply become an average NHL player. There's an overabundance of *average* available for cheap.

ALWAYS DRAFT FOR SOMETHING SPECIAL. If they bust, who cares? Why waste a draft pick on a *safe pick* when you could have simply acquired the same type of player for free?

What's special? Ehlers. Connor. Scheifele. Perfetti. Petan. Burmistrov.

I purposefully included Burmistrov and Petan. Yes, both busts. But both had a special skill too. That's a worthwhile gamble. The upside was worth drafting for.

When I'm watching players, I'm looking for that something special that's rare in players. Skill, IQ, fluidity. I'm not just looking for a player than can go up and down a wing and bang bodies. That's too easy to acquire in Free Agency.

Sometimes the skill works out (Kaprisov, Point, Kurcherov, Debrincat). Sometimes it doesn't (Petan, Burmistrov). That's nearly impossible to decipher when they're 18 years old. But they all had a very unique skillset that made them worthwhile picks.

I just hate when people pick low producing Forwards from junior leagues thinking their game will better *translate* at the NHL level. I mean, if their huge size doesn't give them an edge against smaller junior players, what makes them think it will work out in the NHL? Boston learned the hard way in 2015 with three brutal picks of low producers.
Your thinking makes sense for most teams. You underestimate the value and overestimate the value of guys who can just be an average nhl player for teams like Winnipeg where free agents don't want to come and I'd say most of the time we have had players who are less than an average nhl player. Since we can't bring them in as free agents the only way for us to get them is to draft them. You're logic makes a lot more sense for teams like TB, NYC.
 

jimsabo21

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Jul 2, 2011
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Jordan Dumais with a 6 assist night. Five of them primary assists at even strength!

He's up to 96 pts and has four games remaining to play. As a 17 year old, he may end up scoring more than Huberdeau, Ehlers, Drouin and Lafreniere. But he's 5'9 and still not listed as a legit first rounder!

He's now the leading draft eligible CHL scoring leader - even outscoring Shane Wright.
 
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jimsabo21

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Draft Eligible CHL Players Ranked by the Contribution of Overall Team Goals + Even Strength Numbers:

1. Jordan Dumais
96 pts / 61 Even Strength

Halifax Moosehead Totals: 250 goals / 190 Even Strength
% share of total Goals: 38.4%
% share of Even Strength Goals: 32.1%

(next highest teammate Desnoyers 78 pts)

2. David Goyette
73 pts / 58 Even Strength

Sudbury Wolves Totals: 223 goals / 182 Even Strength
% share of total Goals: 32.7%
% share of Even Strength Goals: 32%

(highest teammate Konyen 50 pts)

3. Jagger Firkus
80 pts / 51 Even Strength Points

Moose Jaw Warriors Totals: 221 goals / 168 Even Strength Goals
% share of total Goals: 36.2%
% share of Even Strength Goals: 30%

(next highest teammate Korczak 79 pts)

4. Shane Wright
94 pts / 66 Even Strength Pts

Kingston Frontenac Totals: 285 goals / 216 Even Strength
% share of total Goals: 33%
% share of Even Strength Goals: 30.1%

(highest teammate Edmonds 113 pts)

5. Del Bel Belluz
76 pts / 49 Even Strength

Mississauga Steelheads Totals: 229 goals / 176 Even Strength
% share of total Goals: 33.2%
% share of Even Strength Goals: 27.8%

(highest teammate Hardie 77 pts)

6. Matt Savoie
90 pts / 56 Even Strength

Winnipeg Ice Totals: 317 goals / 243 Even Strength Goals
% share of total Goals: 28.4%
% share of Even Strength Goals: 23%

(next highest teammate McClennon 81 pts / Milne 81 pts)

7. Conor Geekie
70 pts / 53 Even Strength

Winnipeg Ice Totals: 317 goals / 243 Even Strength Goals
% share of total Goals: 22.1%
% share of Even Strength Goals: 21.8%

(highest teammate Savoie 90 pts, McClennon 81 pts, Milne 81 pts)

8. Owen Beck
51 pts / 36 Even Strength

Mississauga Stealheads Totals: 229 goals / 176 Even Strength
% share of total Goals: 22%
% share of Even Strength Goals: 20%

(highest teammate Hardie 77 pts)

9. Nathan Gauther
53 pts / 42 Even Strength

Quebec Ramparts Totals: 275 goals / 226 Even Strength
% share of total Goals: 19.3%
% share of Even Strength Goals: 18.6%

(highest teammate Bolduc 90pts, Rochette 89 pts)
 

Huffer

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Great work @jimsabo21

Unrealistic scenario for the Jets, we win the lottery and move up in to the top 5, or we trade up and draft one of the RHD (Nemec or Jiricek) with our pick. The Rangers make the Eastern final and we pick Goyette at 25. And then we pick Dumais with our 2nd. :)
 
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Joe Hallenback

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Great work @jimsabo21

Unrealistic scenario for the Jets, we win the lottery and move up in to the top 5, or we trade up and draft one of the RHD (Nemec or Jiricek) with our pick. The Rangers make the Eastern final and we pick Goyette at 25. And then we pick Dumais with our 2nd. :)

There is some thought that Jiricek might fall in the draft because of injury
 
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