GDT: The 2022 NHL Entry Draft Thread

[surixon]

Nemec is a more offensive player then Jiricek. A real good skater with really good offensive instincts. Decent size but not physical. A good comparison I have seen made is a at the high end Roman Josi and at the low end a Rasmus Andersson.

Jiricek is a throwback defender. Very physical, hard hitting. Mobile and skates well. More of a Nurse type of D man.

Nice. We could use either of those types in the system.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

To expand on this, if Geekie wasn't from down the road from Winnipeg, would we be looking at him as a top 10 option?

This is just from looking at his numbers, and a genuine question.

I think its more of a question of who is Geekie.

I will give you an example of a guy just without ever watching him play. Michael Rasmussen. Drafted 9th overall. Big center. Roughly PPG in his draft year. Now you have to view that as a miss. He is looking more like a 3rd line type of player similar in style to Lowry.

Without ever watching them play is Geekie more like Rasmussen or more like Getzlaf? A couple of major differences with Geekie compared to a Rasmussen is his hands and his IQ. I think those will likely elevate him but will it elevate him to a Getzlaf or Barkov or Kopitar level? Or is going to be more like a Dubois or Monahan or Strome level?

I think you view as someone who can become a good number 2 NHL center but has the potential to go beyond that. At the low end you likely find a very good 3 center or solid top 9 NHL winger.

 

[surixon]

I think its more of a question of who is Geekie.

I will give you an example of a guy just without ever watching him play. Michael Rasmussen. Drafted 9th overall. Big center. Roughly PPG in his draft year. Now you have to view that as a miss. He is looking more like a 3rd line type of player similar in style to Lowry.

Without ever watching them play is Geekie more like Rasmussen or more like Getzlaf? A couple of major differences with Geekie compared to a Rasmussen is his hands and his IQ. I think those will likely elevate him but will it elevate him to a Getzlaf or Barkov or Kopitar level? Or is going to be more like a Dubois or Monahan or Strome level?

I think you view as someone who can become a good number 2 NHL center but has the potential to go beyond that. At the low end you likely find a very good 3 center or solid top 9 NHL winger.

Yeah, this echos my thoughts on him. If all goes right he could be a Getzlaf type. If we draft him we will need to be patient and have a real good development plan for him.

I'd be very happy you gamble on his upside at 10.

 

[jrs]

Which guy is a clone of Makar? Pick him.

 

[Romang67]

I think he suffers from playing on an elite team. He doesn't play top line and as many minutes as most top prospects who are I junior play.

From the games I've seen he is still a pretty raw player much like Scheifele. He's tall but lanky and hasn't filled out his frame yet. His skating is solid bit needs some refinement.

As far as his skill set, he has really soft hands and great puck skills, he has a hard shot and above average vision and passing. He is nit afraid to go to the front of the net or take the puck hard to the slot.

He is someone that you could project as a number 1 center if he can fill out his frame and put his tools together.

I'd be very happy taking him, but he would need some time to season like Mark imo.

I think its more of a question of who is Geekie.

I will give you an example of a guy just without ever watching him play. Michael Rasmussen. Drafted 9th overall. Big center. Roughly PPG in his draft year. Now you have to view that as a miss. He is looking more like a 3rd line type of player similar in style to Lowry.

Without ever watching them play is Geekie more like Rasmussen or more like Getzlaf? A couple of major differences with Geekie compared to a Rasmussen is his hands and his IQ. I think those will likely elevate him but will it elevate him to a Getzlaf or Barkov or Kopitar level? Or is going to be more like a Dubois or Monahan or Strome level?

I think you view as someone who can become a good number 2 NHL center but has the potential to go beyond that. At the low end you likely find a very good 3 center or solid top 9 NHL winger.

Sounds good, and helps alleviate some worry just stat watching. I went on the WHL website and noticed some of his lack of production could be because of lack of PP production on his end. Does he not play on PP1 for the Ice?

@Joe Hallenback to tie it together with your Rasmussen comment, Rasmussen only had 24 even strength points (29 PPP, 2SHP), so even his relatively unimpressive point totals in his draft season probably made him look better than he actually was that season.

There is always that slight worry that a big player could use his physical skills in juniors to get points, but will drop off once he starts playing against NHLers, but it doesn't sound like this is the case with Geekie?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Sounds good, and helps alleviate some worry just stat watching. I went on the WHL website and noticed some of his lack of production could be because of lack of PP production on his end. Does he not play on PP1 for the Ice?

There is always that slight worry that a big player could use his physical skills in juniors to get points, but will drop off once he starts playing against NHLers, but it doesn't sound like this is the case with Geekie?

Yeah wasn't that the worry with Lundell? That his offensive output just wasn't good enough. Yet, two months later he was leading the WJC and now he is in the race for the Calder. How did so many people miss on Lundell?

 

[surixon]

Sounds good, and helps alleviate some worry just stat watching. I went on the WHL website and noticed some of his lack of production could be because of lack of PP production on his end. Does he not play on PP1 for the Ice?

There is always that slight worry that a big player could use his physical skills in juniors to get points, but will drop off once he starts playing against NHLers, but it doesn't sound like this is the case with Geekie?

He has more ES points then Savoie for instance. He was on the top unit the games I saw but everything runs through Savoie. I am not sure about the last couple of months though as we haven't been allowed in to watch lol

My count:

10 ESG 9 ES A1 9 ES A2

19 primary ESP

He only has 6 PP points and a lot of them secondary assists which lends more to support the theory that he isn't the QB on it.

 

[Romang67]

Yeah wasn't that the worry with Lundell? That his offensive output just wasn't good enough. Yet, two months later he was leading the WJC and now he is in the race for the Calder. How did so many people miss on Lundell?

Historically you have been much better going with higher producing players in the draft, to the point where a Canucks blog did a super simple comparison of whether they would have been better off listening to the scout or GM or just picking the highest producing player in the CHL (IIRC) with their draft pick, and the scouts/GM of the Canucks were blown out of the water over the time frame.

Lundell is a bit different, because he was playing in the Liiga at a young age and producing, so scouts thought he'd be ready for the NHL early, but were AFAIK dubious of his offensive potential long term. He's now playing for possibly the most explosive offensive team in the NHL with an on-ice sh% of >13% (Florida has scored 14 goals more than statistically expected with him on the ice), so I'd be hesitant to say that "many people" missed on Lundell in their draft+2 season.

 

[surixon]

Historically you have been much better going with higher producing players in the draft, to the point where a Canucks blog did a super simple comparison of whether they would have been better off listening to the scout or GM or just picking the highest producing player in the CHL (IIRC) with their draft pick, and the scouts/GM of the Canucks were blown out of the water over the time frame.

Lundell is a bit different, because he was playing in the Liiga at a young age and producing, so scouts thought he'd be ready for the NHL early, but were AFAIK dubious of his offensive potential long term. He's now playing for possibly the most explosive offensive team in the NHL with an on-ice sh% of >13% (Florida has scored 14 goals more than statistically expected with him on the ice), so I'd be hesitant to say that "many people" missed on Lundell in their draft+2 season.

He also has a high proportion of secondary assists and still sits 7th on that team in scoring. He's an impressive young player but he's in the perfect spot to be racking up points with a team that is white hot.

 

[Romang67]

He has more ES points then Savoie for instance. He was on the top unit the games I saw but everything runs through Savoie. I am not sure about the last couple of months though as we haven't been allowed in to watch lol

My count:

10 ESG 9 ES A1 9 ES A2

19 primary ESP

He only has 6 PP points and a lot of them secondary assists which lends more to support the theory that he isn't the QB on it.

I would be interested to see a study on how well a team would draft if they went as simple as that. Sort players by even strength primary points. Draft the highest producer available at your pick. I wouldn't be shocked if you did pretty well out of that.

 

[SLAYER]

Historically you have been much better going with higher producing players in the draft, to the point where a Canucks blog did a super simple comparison of whether they would have been better off listening to the scout or GM or just picking the highest producing player in the CHL (IIRC) with their draft pick, and the scouts/GM of the Canucks were blown out of the water over the time frame.

I loved the "Who would draft better, the Canucks GM or a Potato?" article. I believe there is an (outdated) website for it now, which analyzes all NHL teams vs the Potato up to 2019.

The Potato GM

 

[surixon]

I would be interested to see a study on how well a team would draft if they went as simple as that. Sort players by even strength primary points. Draft the highest producer available at your pick. I wouldn't be shocked if you did pretty well out of that.

Yeah, I've been trying to go a bit more in depth on some players where I can find that information. Share Wright is another player that does well in terms of ES primary points. Whereas Savoie has a lot of primary points but a tonne of secondary ones as well.

I like Savoie a lot but imo Geekie always flashes more individual skill on the ice in the games I've seen. Savoie is just more explosive and polished.

 

[Atoyot]

Nemec is a more offensive player then Jiricek. A real good skater with really good offensive instincts. Decent size but not physical. A good comparison I have seen made is a at the high end Roman Josi and at the low end a Rasmus Andersson.

Jiricek is a throwback defender. Very physical, hard hitting. Mobile and skates well. More of a Nurse type of D man.

They're both absolutely gorgeous skaters. Nemec is definitely more active offensively but Jiricek is no slouch in that department. Jiricek's defensive awareness and positioning is fantastic and that immediately makes me not like the Nurse comparison, I'd go with a slightly less physical Seider or a more physical Heiskanen but with a bomb of a shot. He's very good in all zones and is a great puck mover as well. At this point I like him more than Nemec but I don't think you can go wrong with either. I do like the Josi comparison for Nemec. Definitely uses his brains to defend a lot more than this brawn.

 

[ps241]

Which guy is a clone of Makar? Pick him.

Interesting Makar was drafted 4th OA in 2017 by the Avs and has set the world on fire. In 2019 Avs drafted another offensive D man Bowen Byram 4th OA and his trajectory has been totally different (even pre injury). Drafting is so quirky.

 

[snowkiddin]

Interesting Makar was drafted 4th OA in 2017 by the Avs and has set the world on fire. In 2019 Avs drafted another offensive D man Bowen Byram 4th OA and his trajectory has been totally different (even pre injury). Drafting is so quirky.

Yeah, the draft classes themselves vary in strength from year to year. I’ve heard this is a down year (similar to 2017) but we’ll see.

Byram was a top prospect because of his elite skating, but he’s just not a smart hockey player. He’s insulated well in Colorado though so maybe with good coaching he can learn the NHL game better.

 

[Thechozen1]

Yeah wasn't that the worry with Lundell? That his offensive output just wasn't good enough. Yet, two months later he was leading the WJC and now he is in the race for the Calder. How did so many people miss on Lundell?

Lundell was one of my favourite prospects and even when Perfetti fell to the Jets, I still would have been happy if Lundell was their pick.

 

[Atoyot]

Which guy is a clone of Makar? Pick him.

If there were a slam dunk Makar clone he would go 1st overall.

 

[voyageur]

Historically you have been much better going with higher producing players in the draft, to the point where a Canucks blog did a super simple comparison of whether they would have been better off listening to the scout or GM or just picking the highest producing player in the CHL (IIRC) with their draft pick, and the scouts/GM of the Canucks were blown out of the water over the time frame.

Lundell is a bit different, because he was playing in the Liiga at a young age and producing, so scouts thought he'd be ready for the NHL early, but were AFAIK dubious of his offensive potential long term. He's now playing for possibly the most explosive offensive team in the NHL with an on-ice sh% of >13% (Florida has scored 14 goals more than statistically expected with him on the ice), so I'd be hesitant to say that "many people" missed on Lundell in their draft+2 season.

You also have to factor the Barkov effect. When you can get a young player to grow under the wing of a star player, like Crosby with Lemieux, or Datsyuk with Larionov, you have the recipe that helped alot of succesful teams. Just watching Lundell play though, he's the real deal, skating isn't an issue, as some had said, positionally he's a step ahead. I wonder what would have been, that was the draft year we were looking for a centre to play between Ehlers and Laine.

I think Lundell might turn out to be the best player in that draft.

 

[surixon]

You also have to factor the Barkov effect. When you can get a young player to grow under the wing of a star player, like Crosby with Lemieux, or Datsyuk with Larionov, you have the recipe that helped alot of succesful teams. Just watching Lundell play though, he's the real deal, skating isn't an issue, as some had said, positionally he's a step ahead. I wonder what would have been, that was the draft year we were looking for a centre to play between Ehlers and Laine.

I think Lundell might turn out to be the best player in that draft.

Way too soon to say for any if these players. He was one of the more physically mature players in that draft with a number of years of pro experience. It be a while before we see who turns out to be the best.

 

[ps241]

On the Geekie topic I found this post by @JeromeHP from over in the Hockey prospects thread interesting. Jerome scouts for HP and was responding to a poster that was questioning how they could have Geekie ranked at #2 and Pickering at #5 while Savouie was #7?:


“This is still projection, we project Geekie as a number 1 center and Savoie we think he's a winger at the NHL level. Most of the time we will go with the center over the winger unless we really think the winger is that much better. We just think centers have such stronger value in the NHL and more importantly in the playoff. Geekie is still pretty raw which makes it even more interesting for us, a bit like Edvinsson last year but this time at center. There's a ton of development ahead for him we feel Savoie was more of an earlier developer.

I'll add this on Savoie, a ton of points on the power play for him, he probably would be higher in our list if he was better at ES. 48% of his point are on the PP ... Lafreniere had 35% in 2020-2021 and McDavid had 34% in 2014-2015 as comparables. Geekie is only at 20% btw.

Also in December, I did a breakdown of his points, 76% of his point (31 of 41) came against teams playing under 500 at that time. Remember we still like him as a prospect but based on our viewings we just don't see that top-3 talk with him yet.

As far as Pickering goes, we think there's so much untapped potential with his player and he could be a top pairing D when it's all said and done. We had success with Seider in 2019, Sanderson in 2020 and Edvinsson in 2021 when people told us we had them too high, we feel pretty confident with Pickering projection although we're not sold yet that's he's going to be at the same level of those guys but we like him enough to be our top-ranked D in this draft class.”

 

[SM]

On the Geekie topic I found this post by @JeromeHP from over in the Hockey prospects thread interesting. Jerome scouts for HP and was responding to a poster that was questioning how they could have Geekie ranked at #2 and Pickering at #5 while Savouie was #7?:


“This is still projection, we project Geekie as a number 1 center and Savoie we think he's a winger at the NHL level. Most of the time we will go with the center over the winger unless we really think the winger is that much better. We just think centers have such stronger value in the NHL and more importantly in the playoff. Geekie is still pretty raw which makes it even more interesting for us, a bit like Edvinsson last year but this time at center. There's a ton of development ahead for him we feel Savoie was more of an earlier developer.

I'll add this on Savoie, a ton of points on the power play for him, he probably would be higher in our list if he was better at ES. 48% of his point are on the PP ... Lafreniere had 35% in 2020-2021 and McDavid had 34% in 2014-2015 as comparables. Geekie is only at 20% btw.

Also in December, I did a breakdown of his points, 76% of his point (31 of 41) came against teams playing under 500 at that time. Remember we still like him as a prospect but based on our viewings we just don't see that top-3 talk with him yet.

As far as Pickering goes, we think there's so much untapped potential with his player and he could be a top pairing D when it's all said and done. We had success with Seider in 2019, Sanderson in 2020 and Edvinsson in 2021 when people told us we had them too high, we feel pretty confident with Pickering projection although we're not sold yet that's he's going to be at the same level of those guys but we like him enough to be our top-ranked D in this draft class.”

Really interesting, good find on Savoie vs. Geekie!

I have seen Pickering’s name more and more as I have been researching the draft. Seems like a tall kid who has lots of room to fill out. Curious to see how many other teams see the potential and if he’ll move up from the current consensus of early 2nd round to somewhere in the 1st.

 

[surixon]

On the Geekie topic I found this post by @JeromeHP from over in the Hockey prospects thread interesting. Jerome scouts for HP and was responding to a poster that was questioning how they could have Geekie ranked at #2 and Pickering at #5 while Savouie was #7?:


“This is still projection, we project Geekie as a number 1 center and Savoie we think he's a winger at the NHL level. Most of the time we will go with the center over the winger unless we really think the winger is that much better. We just think centers have such stronger value in the NHL and more importantly in the playoff. Geekie is still pretty raw which makes it even more interesting for us, a bit like Edvinsson last year but this time at center. There's a ton of development ahead for him we feel Savoie was more of an earlier developer.

I'll add this on Savoie, a ton of points on the power play for him, he probably would be higher in our list if he was better at ES. 48% of his point are on the PP ... Lafreniere had 35% in 2020-2021 and McDavid had 34% in 2014-2015 as comparables. Geekie is only at 20% btw.

Also in December, I did a breakdown of his points, 76% of his point (31 of 41) came against teams playing under 500 at that time. Remember we still like him as a prospect but based on our viewings we just don't see that top-3 talk with him yet.

As far as Pickering goes, we think there's so much untapped potential with his player and he could be a top pairing D when it's all said and done. We had success with Seider in 2019, Sanderson in 2020 and Edvinsson in 2021 when people told us we had them too high, we feel pretty confident with Pickering projection although we're not sold yet that's he's going to be at the same level of those guys but we like him enough to be our top-ranked D in this draft class.”

Yeah the more I look into it the more I think Geekie is going to be undervalued at this draft. I'd take him in a nano second as he has number 1 C upside.

He is just likely going to follow something akin to the Scheifele development path as he needs time to mature physically and put his game together.

 

[SM]

Yeah the more I look into it the more I think Geekie is going to be undervalued at this draft. I'd take him in a nano second as he has number 1 C upside.

He is just likely going to follow something akin to the Scheifele development path as he needs time to mature physically and put his game together.

Hopefully he skips the part of the development path where he forgets how to play defense

 

[surixon]

Ok, here is my first in depth prospect scouting profile for this draft. I did Shane Wright because we still are likely going to be in the lottery and have a chance at him:

Name	Shane Wright
Position	Center
Hand	Right
Projection	Two-way number 1 center
Stylistic Comparison	Jonathan Toews
Metrics
Generic
Skating	4
Size	4
Strength	4
	12
Offensive Skills
Shooting	4.5
Vision and passing	4
Hands	4
Puck skills	4
Board work	4
Offensive IQ	4.5
Offensive Score	25
Defensive Skills
Defensive positioning	4
Defensive IQ	4.5
Back tracking	4
Defensive board work	4
Defensive puck management	4
Defensive Score	20.5
Metric Score	57.5
Notes
Generic:
Shane Wright is a very good all around center that doesn't cheat the play to create offense. He is often found above the puck/play and uses his real strong instincts and good lines to take
away time and space in all zones. He is a good skater who can get up to speed quickly, and he also posses good four way mobility. He hounds the puck really well and is strong along the boards and in puck battles.
Offensive:
Shane posses good offensive instincts that allow him to close plays down quickly. This helps him force a lot of turnovers which leads to offensive zone time.
Shane has a very good and accurate shot with a quick release. He is very capable of beating goalies clean with it and his strong instincts allow him to find the soft ice in the high danger areas in which to maximize
his chances of scoring with it. He goes hard to the net and is willing to take punishment to capitalize.
I would characterize his puck skills and vision and passing skills as above average for a skilled player. He is able to hold the puck up well to create space for himself.
He is also able to find his teammates in the offensive and is good at facilitating sustained zone time and good chances.
Not a player who I see really driving elite offensive creation with the puck on his stick but a player who can disrupt other teams, win the puck and keep it moving, then getting open and finishing the play with
his lethal shot.
Defensive:
Shane plays a very advanced defensive game at his age. He supports his dmen really well in his end, reads and closes off space really well.
He has an active stick and uses it to disrupt opponents and clog passing lanes.
He is very responsible with the puck on his stick and generally makes the correct read to get the puck out of his end with control.
Aggregate:
Shane is a player who I originally didn't like all that much in part due to not really seeing him in his element at the WJC and in other camp events.
I also didn't think his stats were nearly impressive enough for a player slated to going first. It wasn't until broke those numbers down into ES and primary points did those numbers look better
I think after watching him he is a quality player that builds his game from his end out. While I don't think his offense will ever be truly elite, it should still be very good and that coupled with
his all around game should lead to a strong all around number 1 C in the O'Rielly, Toews, Couturier type of mold.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Not for another year...