Prospect Info: The 2016 Draft Thread [Draft Lottery April 30th]

[Gone]

This year I get the overall sense that Oiler fans just aren't feeling all too excited about another potential top draft pick. In previous years, most fans were all onboard tanking and cheering for the best possible lottery results. This year theres hardly any mention of tanking or cheering for other bottom teams to win. I know after lucking out and winning the McDavid Lottery combined with all the other 1st overall picks, the excitement of this year's lottery is just not there for me. Maybe a feeling of embarrassment of being in this position year after year is starting to creep up too. Is this the general feeling among most Oiler fans?

I think most fans have finally figured out that you build your team through the draft post round 1, and through trades. The Oilers have barely been successful at the 1st overall pick (Yak. ex.), never mind anything beyond.

When Calgary can spot a 4th round gem in Johnny Gaudreau, who would be the 2nd best player on the Oilers, it shows that building a winner takes "smarts" instead of the Oilers reliance on draft (luck) lotteries. When was the last time the Oilers found real team building, impact players beyond the 1st round (yes Davidson).




By example Calgary drafted , but

 

[Aceboogie]

I think most fans have finally figured out that you build your team through the draft post round 1, and through trades. The Oilers have barely been successful at the 1st overall pick (Yak. ex.), never mind anything beyond.

When Calgary can spot a 4th round gem in Johnny Gaudreau, who would be the 2nd best player on the Oilers, it shows that building a winner takes "smarts" instead of the Oilers reliance on draft (luck) lotteries. When was the last time the Oilers found real team building, impact players beyond the 1st round (yes Davidson).




By example Calgary drafted , but

Calgary is defiantly not the right example of a team who builds smart through the draft. They have worse drafting than the Oilers but then have 2 massive outliers with complete luck picks in Gaudreau and Brodie. Drafting is alot about luck and Oilers can very easily pull this off. Davidson, Petry and Reider are all good depth picks. Reider was a management trade blunder though. Oilers of 2000-2006 got some lucky depth picks.

Anahiem, St.Lious, Chicago, Detroit, Florida are some recent exampel sof good later round drfating teams

 

[lakai17]

I will be fine leaving with Laine, Dubois or or Chychrun.

I do not mind Nylander as well.

 

[Philly85*]

1. He loves to be different

2. Chychurn could slide that far since everyone has picks 4-10 being rearranged

3. Button doesn't actually go out and watch these players.

can you give an example of how he likes to be different. By all accounts, every time I hear him talk about prospects, he sounds pretty reasonable. He's had the 1st overall picks pegged the past several years in line with general consensus. There's always a few picks out there that opinion varies on.

as to your third comment, he most definitely does go out and watch the players. In fact that is his top priority and his job position with TSN, he is director of their scouting department. He is based out of southern Ontario and the GTA, goes out and watches top prospects in North America regularly, he is paid to do so by TSN. You are factually, completely incorrect in saying this.

 

[lakai17]

Possibly get a late first rounder. Fabbro or Thompson would be decent projects. Samuel Girard as well compared to Ryan Ellis.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

can you give an example of how he likes to be different. By all accounts, every time I hear him talk about prospects, he sounds pretty reasonable. He's had the 1st overall picks pegged the past several years in line with general consensus. There's always a few picks out there that opinion varies on.

as to your third comment, he most definitely does go out and watch the players. In fact that is his top priority and his job position with TSN, he is director of their scouting department. He is based out of southern Ontario and the GTA, goes out and watches top prospects in North America regularly, he is paid to do so by TSN. You are factually, completely incorrect in saying this.

Having the first overall picks pegged isn't that impressive...

 

[McQuixote]

can you give an example of how he likes to be different.

Button ranked Virtanen at 43 in his draft year, when virtually everyone else had him much, much higher (Top 10ish).

 

[Staghorn]

Button ranked Virtanen at 43 in his draft year, when virtually everyone else had him much, much higher (Top 10ish).

And so far Virtanen has been pretty meh on a crappy team if you ask me... Bust in the WJC as a "leader" this past year too.

Drafting in rounds 2-4 is where most teams generate organizational depth and score the odd find. This is where the Oilers have been utterly horrendous the past decade. This is why the organization is at the bottom.

Chychrun, Juolevi or Tkatchuk for me... Any of those three is a great pick. Gotta keep it too - does any team trade a Hamonic for one of those players? Nope. I wouldn't. So keep it and run with the prospect.

 

[HeavyHitter99]

can you give an example of how he likes to be different. By all accounts, every time I hear him talk about prospects, he sounds pretty reasonable. He's had the 1st overall picks pegged the past several years in line with general consensus. There's always a few picks out there that opinion varies on.

as to your third comment, he most definitely does go out and watch the players. In fact that is his top priority and his job position with TSN, he is director of their scouting department. He is based out of southern Ontario and the GTA, goes out and watches top prospects in North America regularly, he is paid to do so by TSN. You are factually, completely incorrect in saying this.

As to your 1st paragraph, it's common knowledge that he likes to make his rankings different than everyone else's, he does it every year. You can assume he often does it to get more hits and attention. You mentioned him pegging the 1st overalls, anyone can do that.

As to your 2nd paragraph, as someone who specializes in western Canada scouting with occasional other NA trips, I have ran into him a couple times during OHL games but only once or twice in all the WHL games I've been to. I will admit that he travels out to western Canada more during the WHL playoffs. Realistically he probably watches most of his non Ontario players online or from videos. I'm not a Craig Button expert by any means but there is no way he travels North America and sees all his ranked players more than once live or at all. Every team, organization and scouting service has each scout specialize in 1 area of the world (such as Ontario) with some crossover games for comparisons. A TSN analyst isn't travelling around all over NA realistically, there's just too many players and games to do so.

I have no issues with him or his rankings just to be clear but I am being realistic. We all have our opinions and it's all good if you disagree

 

[HeavyHitter99]

And so far Virtanen has been pretty meh on a crappy team if you ask me... Bust in the WJC as a "leader" this past year too.

Drafting in rounds 2-4 is where most teams generate organizational depth and score the odd find. This is where the Oilers have been utterly horrendous the past decade. This is why the organization is at the bottom.

Chychrun, Juolevi or Tkatchuk for me... Any of those three is a great pick. Gotta keep it too - does any team trade a Hamonic for one of those players? Nope. I wouldn't. So keep it and run with the prospect.

He's actually looked greatly improved since the WJC. His issue has always been his ability to use his tools properly. He has decent size, soft hands, excellent speed, impressive physicality and he can be a pest but even in the dub he struggled to dominate. If he figures it out then he will be a very valuable player. At the WJC though he was straight up bad.

 

[Bangers]

I want the Oilers to win the lottery ... then trade the pick for a top D-man.

 

[McQuixote]

And so far Virtanen has been pretty meh on a crappy team if you ask me...

As opposed to the 10 guys Button ranked immediately before him? And most of the other prospects ranked above that? You can't really think that there's a legitimate 30 person gap between Virtanen and, say, Nick Ritchie right now. Certainly Virtanen, in his rookie year, isn't tracking like an average 2nd round pick nor is he being outright out-performed by a full round of prospects.

It was a way-out-there contrarian ranking and as of right now one cannot say that Button has been proven correct. In fact, the stronger argument is that he was at least a little off base. Even if you're not buying a Virtanen jersey yet.

 

[oStealthKiller*]

As opposed to the 10 guys Button ranked immediately before him? And most of the other prospects ranked above that? You can't really think that there's a legitimate 30 person gap between Virtanen and, say, Nick Ritchie right now. Certainly Virtanen, in his rookie year, isn't tracking like an average 2nd round pick nor is he being outright out-performed by a full round of prospects.

It was a way-out-there contrarian ranking and as of right now one cannot say that Button has been proven correct. In fact, the stronger argument is that he was at least a little off base. Even if you're not buying a Virtanen jersey yet.

Realistically it's probably both. He probably had him let's say 23rd and was like hmm, I got this top 10 player 15 spots lower then everyone else... HES THE ONE. He is the one I'll drop further this year to garner attention/discussion to my list. So he wanted attention but he probably had him lower then most and just went go big or go home

 

[La Bamba]

Matthews or bust.

The Oilers got this draft lottery in the bag. McDavid & Matthews will be the brothers of destruction.

 

[snipes]

Let's say we end up drafting 3-4. Would it be too early to take Chychrun/Juolevi? And if it is, does it really matter? What I mean is should the Oilers just draft a high end Dman over Pulju/Tkachuk and take the time to develop him properly.

I'm of the opinion that if they are going to use the pick, they should draft a Dman over Pulju/Tkachuk. I realize opinions could differ here, what do you guys think?

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

The numbers below indicate how many points that team needs (or we need to lose out on) for them to be out of reach for us to pass in the standings.
*Updated Last Night. I removed New Jersey. We can still tie them in points, but no matter what they have us beat with ROW*

- 2
- 2
- 4
:coyotes - 7
- 8
- 10
- 12
- 12
- 12
- 15

Lowest Possible Pick

13

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Let's say we end up drafting 3-4. Would it be too early to take Chychrun/Juolevi? And if it is, does it really matter? What I mean is should the Oilers just draft a high end Dman over Pulju/Tkachuk and take the time to develop him properly.

I'm of the opinion that if they are going to use the pick, they should draft a Dman over Pulju/Tkachuk. I realize opinions could differ here, what do you guys think?

At 4, I would pick the D

 

[Oilers10]

THanks for this magic number update its fun to follow. Knocked off Minny and NJD today. I'm happy picking anywhere we are to be picking. The big 3 would be nice then we could package one of the previous 1st OA's to another team for D help. IF not we can use a big body like Tkachuk, top end D like CHychrun or Juolevi. Dubois is a big body we can certainly use in our top 6 as well.

ITs not as critical we win this lotto because of McDavid. McDavid fixes everything. 10 years of suck. Everything lol.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Oilers have the lowest pts % in the NHL now... and currently have a 51% chance of finishing 30th... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html.

Honestly finishing DFL (which guarantees a top 4 pick) would be "optimal" at this point... it's no use in having the team go on a pointless late season spurt and potentially dropping a half dozen places in the draft rankings.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

Oilers have the lowest pts % in the NHL now... and currently have a 51% chance of finishing 30th... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html.

Honestly finishing DFL (which guarantees a top 4 pick) would be "optimal" at this point... it's no use in having the team go on a pointless late season spurt and potentially dropping a half dozen places in the draft rankings.

DFL is good for me for 2 reasons. 1, it guarantees that we get the best possible asset. We either trade the pick, or we get 1 of the big 3, or first choice at D.

The 2nd reason is it makes Chiarelli more anxious to make the changes that are necessary

 

[CornKicker]

my new fav late round player is Cliff Pu

im assuming its pronounced Poo

 

[nexttothemoon]

It's amusing that the Oilers are ahead of every other team in the NHL in games played... it's as if the schedule makers sat around and said... "Ah **** it... they'll be out of it by November and their fans will be checked out and counting down the days until the draft lottery by January... might as well finish up their season as fast as possible and put that fanbase out of their misery."

 

[friction]

my new fav late round player is Cliff Pu

im assuming its pronounced Poo

Lol it is, and he is really fun ti watch, tons of energy. Just seems like a genuine person.

 

[Zaddy]

It's amusing that the Oilers are ahead of every other team in the NHL in games played... it's as if the schedule makers sat around and said... "Ah **** it... they'll be out of it by November and their fans will be checked out and counting down the days until the draft lottery by January... might as well finish up their season as fast as possible and put that fanbase out of their misery."

It's been like that the entire season pretty much, I don't get it. I thought it would even out at some point but nope. Is there even a legitimate reason for it being like this? We have 2 more games played than the next team and 5 more than the team with the least amount of games. The season is almost done, how can it be this imbalanced still?

 

[Eskie Jetski]

Oilers have the lowest pts % in the NHL now... and currently have a 51% chance of finishing 30th... http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html.

Honestly finishing DFL (which guarantees a top 4 pick) would be "optimal" at this point... it's no use in having the team go on a pointless late season spurt and potentially dropping a half dozen places in the draft rankings.

The way Vancouver is playing, they have a 51% chance of being shutout in each game. We still play them two more times. I have this gut feeling the final game of the season will be the battle for 13.5% odds.