Tell me why I shouldn’t worry about the Canucks slipping

jackjohnson

Registered User
Feb 9, 2021
8,093
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Stecher is a borderline NHLer, which is still an upgrade over any of their D other than Ekholm. This is a historically bad group and it's honestly a disgrace to the sport to see the Oilers try to pass off these pylons as a blueline.
And their goalie isnt any better. Skinner got lit up in preseason against a bunch of ahlers.
 

quat

Faking Life
Apr 4, 2003
15,500
2,631
Duncan
I dont think you have good hockey knowledge if you think this roster is not even able to get sub 90 in points. Sprong and Lekker even not making the team would still leave Hoglander on 2nd line who is capable of 25 goals and Suter on the top line just like last season plus the additions of sprong, Heinen, sherwood on the bottom line. You also forgot Joshua and Garland being the best 3rd line in the league. Its ok if you miss last season, thinking Canucks will miss playoff due to their forward depth is wild 🤣
You are confused if you think I said the team wasn't capable of exceeding 90 points. In fact, I said the opposite.

If you take a little more time when reading, you'll see I was supportive of your opinion that the teams floor is making the playoffs, or as you shared, baring any catastrophic injuries.
 
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RandV

It's a wolf v2.0
Jul 29, 2003
27,031
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Classic overachievers due for a step back.

Naturally, everyone is riding high on them and can’t fathom them not being a top team just one year after they were widely perceived as a non playoff, 10th in the West, 20th in the league team heading into the season.

Wouldn’t be surprised if they revert to 2022-2023. They were the same high scoring team then that they were last season, but suffered with Demko being terrible before missing three months due to injury. With his questionable status to start the season and how he might play whenever he actually returns, it’s not hard to see them slipping back down to 90-92 points or lower.

Worth noting that they were 42-17-7 (.689) before he missed 5+ weeks last season. They went 7-5-2 (.571) in his absence. They simply play better in front of him.
That season was also a year of two coaches where they were 18-25-3 under Boudreau and then 20-12-4 under Tocchet. Hardly a consistent season. Boudreau is a good coach but his hiring was suspect (hired by owner after firing Green/Benning and before hiring new management) and wasn't a good fit.
 

PettersonHughes

Registered User
Aug 26, 2020
1,700
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Lindholm wasn't that big of a loss (was a 40-point guy and clutch two-way player at 3rd C, with possible rebound potential but also prohibitive price tag; let Boston take that risk), same with Zadorov (he had that possible breakout against Nashville but to pay him at that price is just too steep). DeBrusk might not break out himself either but at worst he's a two-way threat that we have several seasons (Hopefully shorter) to let him gel with Petey or Miller. Desharnais, Forbort, Soucy and Myers are, at worst, stabilizers on the back end with the size and toughness to protect the net. Silovs also has looked sharp at least in preseason, and with him and Lankinen I think they can at least stay afloat while Demko is out. Lastly, with his savvy cap management (going within $100k's of the cap ceiling, staggering major contracts) Allvin's built a sustainable team and system and I trust that the product on ice is likely greater than the sum of its parts (e.g. Petey and Miller can elevate some middle-6 guys to be top-6/ low-end top-line wingers) so we'd have depth like we haven't seen for awhile.
 

jackjohnson

Registered User
Feb 9, 2021
8,093
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You should worry based on last years shooting percentage alone.
It seems people have been talking about Canucks shooting percentage since Hughes was a baby. Many have pointed out that their shooting percentage and PDO normalized in the 2nd half of last season but keep preaching it like it will affect Canucks performance this year 😂 if you also notice, Canucks did add a bunch of forwards and one that seems to be very productive in goals per minute in Sprong 😉
 

jackjohnson

Registered User
Feb 9, 2021
8,093
5,331
Lindholm wasn't that big of a loss (was a 40-point guy and clutch two-way player at 3rd C, with possible rebound potential but also prohibitive price tag; let Boston take that risk), same with Zadorov (he had that possible breakout against Nashville but to pay him at that price is just too steep). DeBrusk might not break out himself either but at worst he's a two-way threat that we have several seasons (Hopefully shorter) to let him gel with Petey or Miller. Desharnais, Forbort, Soucy and Myers are, at worst, stabilizers on the back end with the size and toughness to protect the net. Silovs also has looked sharp at least in preseason, and with him and Lankinen I think they can at least stay afloat while Demko is out. Lastly, with his savvy cap management (going within $100k's of the cap ceiling, staggering major contracts) Allvin's built a sustainable team and system and I trust that the product on ice is likely greater than the sum of its parts (e.g. Petey and Miller can elevate some middle-6 guys to be top-6/ low-end top-line wingers) so we'd have depth like we haven't seen for awhile.
You forgot to mention how Alvin has efficiently used cap space to bring in contributors. Sprong for 800k, Lankinen for less than a million, Sherwood and Heinen for cheap. These arent scrubs, they all have some good strength in areas we lacked last season. Its a genius type of team building we have lacked when Benning the clown was in charge.
 
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Bank Shot

Registered User
Jan 18, 2006
11,732
7,533
As a Canuck fan, negative consequences of a shooting percentage regression aren't even in my top 10 concerns.
It should be in your top three concerns.

If the Canucks had shot at an average rate at 5v5 last season they would have scored 23 fewer goals. That would half their goal diff. That kind of stuff results in big swings in the standings,
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
55,971
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Vancouver, BC
It should be in your top three concerns.

If the Canucks had shot at an average rate at 5v5 last season they would have scored 23 fewer goals. That would half their goal diff. That kind of stuff results in big swings in the standings,

1. Teams don't 'regress to average'. Some teams are legitimately better at shooting than others, either due to skill or system, much like some teams have better goaltending than others. We were right at the top of the league in 22-23, also. The Canucks are basically the polar opposite of the Carolina Hurricanes who are at the bottom of the SH% charts every year because their system is basically to fire pucks on net from everywhere. It's pretty well documented that the Canucks players in Tocchet's system are told to hold onto the puck and work for high-percentage shots rather than shooting from everywhere. And the team has lots of quality shooters when they get those chances.

2. The big blip in SH% was in 4 blowouts in the first 12 games of the season where they outscored the opposition 29-3. That blip didn't really contribute to winning games, and the team kept winning when it did regress later in the season. Ironically, if the team had performed *worse* in those 4 games and won them 3-1 or whatever the spreadsheet monkeys would think that the team's identical results were *more* sustainable.

3. The team is actually deeper offensively than last year. Right now there are 12 players on the roster who scored at a 30+ point ES clip last year.
 

Bank Shot

Registered User
Jan 18, 2006
11,732
7,533
1. Teams don't 'regress to average'. Some teams are legitimately better at shooting than others, either due to skill or system, much like some teams have better goaltending than others. We were right at the top of the league in 22-23, also. The Canucks are basically the polar opposite of the Carolina Hurricanes who are at the bottom of the SH% charts every year because their system is basically to fire pucks on net from everywhere. It's pretty well documented that the Canucks players in Tocchet's system are told to hold onto the puck and work for high-percentage shots rather than shooting from everywhere. And the team has lots of quality shooters when they get those chances.

2. The big blip in SH% was in 4 blowouts in the first 12 games of the season where they outscored the opposition 29-3. That blip didn't really contribute to winning games, and the team kept winning when it did regress later in the season. Ironically, if the team had performed *worse* in those 4 games and won them 3-1 or whatever the spreadsheet monkeys would think that the team's identical results were *more* sustainable.

3. The team is actually deeper offensively than last year. Right now there are 12 players on the roster who scored at a 30+ point ES clip last year.
1. Canucks were 7th in 22/23 and 26th in 21/22 with mostly the same core. 5v5 shooting % is pretty all over the map like that. There isn't a special system to increase shooting %. You'll see that this season.

2. The slump in shooting % lasted half the season. Canucks were shooting worse, and winning % slipped a bit.

3. If you say so. I would bet they score less goals.
 

RobsonStreet

Registered User
Jun 4, 2004
764
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1. Canucks were 7th in 22/23 and 26th in 21/22 with mostly the same core. 5v5 shooting % is pretty all over the map like that. There isn't a special system to increase shooting %. You'll see that this season.

2. The slump in shooting % lasted half the season. Canucks were shooting worse, and winning % slipped a bit.

3. If you say so. I would bet they score less goals.
Cut last year’s goal differential in half and they are still third in the division by goal differential.

They could have a Calgary-style implosion but otherwise I’m not sure which middling team in the division or conference surprises and jumps over them.
 

Stive Morgan

"That Guy"
Jul 25, 2011
21,521
27,817
British Columbia
They'll be a worse team than they were last year but they'll probably sit comfortably in the 2nd spot in the Pacific after Edmonton since it's so weak.

Why shouldn't you worry?

Because it's just game man. Why you heff to be mad?
They maybe tried to leave here because in November months it's -32! Can you imagine?!
 

Bank Shot

Registered User
Jan 18, 2006
11,732
7,533
Cut last year’s goal differential in half and they are still third in the division by goal differential.

They could have a Calgary-style implosion but otherwise I’m not sure which middling team in the division or conference surprises and jumps over them.
Yeah, +23 last season was 6-8th in the conference territory.

I expect them to be 5-8th in the Conference this year. That is probably in line with their established level from last season.
 

Coffee

Take one step towards the direction you want to go
Nov 12, 2021
9,186
8,022
Ah yes. Scoring first, in both games and getting points in both games. With the backup goaltender.

While Edmonton gets shut out and Colorado gets the doors blown off them for 8 goals
I didn’t mean it like that, Brook, you know I didn’t
 

Jay26

Registered User
Jul 13, 2022
2,860
3,630
Kamloops
I'm not really worried about them. Even if they take a bit of a step back this year I believe in this team. I believe they've successfully made the transition to a playoff contender (not necessarily CUP contender yet).

I'm just worried about Pettersson, as are a lot of the fans. The situation is bad.

The spine of Miller, Hughes and Demko (assuming he is able to overcome whatever injury he's dealing with) though? Top quality, and we've got a solid management group who I believe can build a good team around them, both through the draft and trades/signings.
 

Brookbank

Registered User
Nov 15, 2022
2,271
2,140
63.5 on the win-o-meter against Tampa in their home opener with their backup goaltender. Im fine with that.

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BurnabyJoe7

Not an Avalanche fan
Apr 12, 2019
1,959
2,430
Less to worry about this year compared to last year when they were on a PDO heater to start the season which dropped dramatically in the second half.

They're playing great 5 on 5 hockey so far this year according to advanced stats. See them placing 2nd and 3rd in the div and playing Vegas or the Oilers in the first round. Probably right around expectations this year if you ignore all the homer fans that deny advanced stats.
 

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