Taylor Hall For Adam Larsson V | 4,000+ Posts and Counting!

[belair]

Nuge has only scored 77 thus far. 77 to go. Wonder how long it takes?

Especially considering his time with primo players like Hall and Eberle on this team is DONE.

We're likely about to see how little Nuge gets done offensively on his own.

Says who?

He probably starts the year with Eberle.

And if anyone can thank primo linemates for their production, it's Draisaitl.

 

[Replacement*]

Says who?

He probably starts the year with Eberle.

And if anyone can thank primo linemates for their production, it's Draisaitl.

McDavid with Lucic and Eberle is the most likely scenario to occur. Not saying that's what I would do but the team is likely looking that way.

Drai and Nuge get whats left over.

I get your point with Draisaitl, and I've said similar, but that feeds my argument on Hall being so beneficial to team mates, as he has been with Nuge much of his career.

It is interesting that Drai paired with Hall and fill did as well as Nuge ever has paired with the two top players on the team.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Nuge has only scored 77 thus far. 77 to go. Wonder how long it takes?

Especially considering his time with primo players like Hall and Eberle on this team is DONE.

About half the time or less than you said that it'd take him.

Both of which are shoot first players, IMO RNH has the best wrist shot on this team, Yak has more zip on his and Eberle has more accuracy but RNH can beat a goalie clean with his shot. Give him some time with a playmaker like Puljujarvi or Draisaitl and a net front presence like Maroon and he could flirt with 30 as early as this season.

We're likely about to see how little Nuge gets done offensively on his own.

If he gets top unit PP time and he isn't used in a shutdown role with say Pouliot and Maroon he should be around the same point total that Hall had last season if he plays 80ish games. The funny thing IMO is that RNH had a piss poor year last season yet it sounds like he was still on pace for 50ish points. Granted a good chunk of that production came when he was on a line with Drai and Hall but I saw him having better chemistry with Drai than he does Hall.

IMO RNH is at his best in transition when he has the puck in his hands and he has linemates that can think the game at a high level and who play within a system. Same with Nuge on the cycle, IMO this fits Draisaitl to a T, Hall not so much. Guys like Maroon, Draisaitl, Pouliot (when on his game), RNH and Lucic play this way, hopefully Puljujarvi does as well but I haven't seen nearly enough of him to say one way or another. RNH is among the best on our team at getting the puck in deep, has been for years but he hasn't had the horses that are willing to get to the puck and get to the front of the net. RNH has been the net front presence on his line FAR too often. Why? Because Hall and Eberle would not play that role so someone on the line had to. Give him Maroon (since Looch probably starts with McDavid) and watch him flourish because Maroon fills that role so that RNH can work with the puck on his stick more. If he plays with Maroon and Drai, that will be one hell of a 2nd line.

Amusingly his 34 pts prorate to 56 pts in a full season

That's amazing considering IMO that was his worst season since the lockout one.

Prorates to 50. Playing much of the year with Eberle, typically the best goal scorer on the club.

Eberle started very slowly coming back from injury and all 3 of Pouliot, RNH and Eberle played like dog crap for good chunks of last season. The only player that IMO RNH did well with was Draisaitl.

McDavid with Lucic and Eberle is the most likely scenario to occur. Not saying that's what I would do but the team is likely looking that way.

Drai and Nuge get whats left over.

I get your point with Draisaitl, and I've said similar, but that feeds my argument on Hall being so beneficial to team mates, as he has been with Nuge much of his career.

It is interesting that Drai paired with Hall and fill did as well as Nuge ever has paired with the two top players on the team.

IMO outside of RNH's rookie year his best play was with Pouliot and Eberle offensively at least. Sometimes it's better to have 2 good players and fill than having 3 really good players on a line depending on their skillsets.

If I were making the lines:

Lucic-McDavid-Eberle (should be a great line)
Maroon-RNH-Draisaitl (size, skill, solid 2nd line)
Pouliot-Letestu-Puljujarvi (a couple of solid 2 way wingers to boost Letestu)
Hendricks-Khaira/Lander-Kassian (rough and tumble 4th line)
Khaira/Lander, Pakarinen

The problem is that now that I typed that out I realized that Yak is nowhere to be found which tells me that we will either be moving out another winger (Pouliot or Yak probably) or rolling with 3 offensive centers in which case:

Lucic-McDavid-Eberle (remains unchanged)
Maroon-RNH-Puljujarvi (RNH gets a couple of big wingers, basically a lesser version of the top line but still a solid line if Puljujarvi comes in ready to play)
Pouliot-Draisaitl-Yakupov (defensive awareness on the left side, Yak finally gets a push with a playmaker from day 1)
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian (Letestu in a better suited role for him)
Lander/Khaira, Pakarinen

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Says who?

He probably starts the year with Eberle.

And if anyone can thank primo linemates for their production, it's Draisaitl.

Getting away from the "primo' linemates might be good for RNH, he hasn't meshed well with Hall for the last several seasons, and he can run hot and cold with Ebs. Give RNH two competent wingers that can let him consistently control the puck, and ones that he doesn't have to cover for defensively all the time (so no Yak, Eberle and likely even Pulju) and I think he'll have his best season since his rookie year (going purely by the eye test).

The problem for RNH is going to be the PP. It wouldn't surprise me to see RNH have a really good 5on5 scoring this year, but his numbers likely aren't going to be that high due to McDavid eating up a lot of the top unit PP time, which was/is Nuge's bread and butter.

 

[nabob]

So now that there's nothing left to complain about with the Larsson/Hall trade why have the usual suspect/s moved the goalposts to rag on Nuge...again? Maybe they want Gagner back, is he still without a NHL contract offer?

 

[Vanqu1sh]

If I were making the lines:

Lucic-McDavid-Eberle (should be a great line)
Maroon-RNH-Draisaitl (size, skill, solid 2nd line)
Pouliot-Letestu-Puljujarvi (a couple of solid 2 way wingers to boost Letestu)
Hendricks-Khaira/Lander-Kassian (rough and tumble 4th line)
Khaira/Lander, Pakarinen

The problem is that now that I typed that out I realized that Yak is nowhere to be found which tells me that we will either be moving out another winger (Pouliot or Yak probably) or rolling with 3 offensive centers in which case:

Lucic-McDavid-Eberle (remains unchanged)
Maroon-RNH-Puljujarvi (RNH gets a couple of big wingers, basically a lesser version of the top line but still a solid line if Puljujarvi comes in ready to play)
Pouliot-Draisaitl-Yakupov (defensive awareness on the left side, Yak finally gets a push with a playmaker from day 1)
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian (Letestu in a better suited role for him)
Lander/Khaira, Pakarinen

I think they will want to try rolling the 3 centers since have adequate LWs to make it work - meaning yakupov or pulju will have to step up and be able to play top6 RW effectively. If they both fail makes sense to see Draisaitl play RW. Stacked top 6 but damn rolling out letestu and lander in the bottom 6 is not pretty.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I think they will want to try rolling the 3 centers since have adequate LWs to make it work - meaning yakupov or pulju will have to step up and be able to play top6 RW effectively. If they both fail makes sense to see Draisaitl play RW. Stacked top 6 but damn rolling out letestu and lander in the bottom 6 is not pretty.

I hear you, this is why when people talk about dealing RNH, I would rather add a 3C to what we have than subtract RNH.

Having 5-6 NHL capable centers and 4 NHL capable top 9 centers is a recipe for success IMO.

 

[Bangers]

The only part of this that I disagree with is the assertion that his small frame result in injuries. None of his injuries to date can be linked to anything to do with the size of his frame.

I was referring to his shoulder injury (injuries?) earlier in his career, which I thought hampered his development.

Then again, I'm no doctor or physio, so maybe it was unrelated to his body type.

 

[Bangers]

I hear you, this is why when people talk about dealing RNH, I would rather add a 3C to what we have than subtract RNH.

Having 5-6 NHL capable centers and 4 NHL capable top 9 centers is a recipe for success IMO.

So..... Gagner?

 

[oilerbear]

K Lowes:

interview on 590 in TOR say it all.

1. blue collar team that could not keep or chase the modano's
in the 90's
and
EIG era.

2. chased forwards to start the katz era.

3. See that you need to build a team from the back out.
and
down the middle

4. PC has built winners in the past.

He is saying you need:
1. Goaltending
Talbot #3 HSCA save% goalie
thanks for arranging that and committing to petry asset move at deadline MacT.
Sather said he only completed the Talbot trade cause of you committing assets and oilers retaining you!

2. defence: Tmac ran and developed HSCA Din SJS for years.
Davidson (Tambo)
became a
top 30 HSCA D
top 30 EVGA D
#5 PKGA D
under Tmac

Klefbom (tambo)
had shown top 80 HSCA under Nelson
but progressed to
top 30 Comp
top 60 HSCA D
top 15 PKGA D
under Tmac

PC went and got
Larsson
toughest comp /ZS situation since 05 lockout
top 10 HSCA D
top 15 SA/60 D
#1 GA/60 D
#12 PKGA D
a player who had elite results under the new coach in SJ.
Who's play should translate Under Tmac
who got same D system results in SJS
as the new SJ coach with the same players.

3. Top centers
Mcdavid: thanks for winning the lottery MacT
#1 C 2.69 EVP/60; #2 Fwd; Jagr
#4 C 1.15 EVG/60; Spezza; Pavelski; Seguin
#2 C 3.36 EVGF/60; #3 fwd; Jagr; Thorton

Draisatl: Thanks for drafting him MacT
PVP center last year.
+ve goal diff player
with these players
w/ RNH +1.80 GD/60
w/ Pouliot + 1.35 GD/60
w/ Maroon +0.93 GD/60
w/ Kassian + 0.75 GD/60
w/ pakarinen +0.38 GD/60
W/ Hall +.14 GD/60

RNH: thanks Tambo
8th best 18yr rookie season in modern era 67-68 to 15-16) facing 2nd comp.
PvP center age 19-22
when healthy:
21G 35A -2
when injured
10G 28A 38p -12
when he faces 2nd comp or less he is a 1.08 PPG player.

oilers were clearly aware they needed to add Golaies; D; enters under MacT
Nurse drafted
Draisatl drafted
Mcdavid drafted
Talbot Aranged trade.

PC went and got the correct coach fro the HSCA d system needed for cup caliber play.

PC went and got the best HSCA D the last 2 years.
For one of the best wingers in the game.
replaced him with a winger that gets similar g and points for the season but qvg 11-13 more gams played per season.
meaning none of those games being replaced by a #13-#15 forward.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

Hsca?

 

[Blitzago*]

K Lowes:

interview on 590 in TOR say it all.

1. blue collar team that could not keep or chase the modano's
in the 90's
and
EIG era.

2. chased forwards to start the katz era.

3. See that you need to build a team from the back out.
and
down the middle

4. PC has built winners in the past.

He is saying you need:
1. Goaltending
Talbot #3 HSCA save% goalie
thanks for arranging that and committing to petry asset move at deadline MacT.
Sather said he only completed the Talbot trade cause of you committing assets and oilers retaining you!

2. defence: Tmac ran and developed HSCA Din SJS for years.
Davidson (Tambo)
became a
top 30 HSCA D
top 30 EVGA D
#5 PKGA D
under Tmac

Klefbom (tambo)
had shown top 80 HSCA under Nelson
but progressed to
top 30 Comp
top 60 HSCA D
top 15 PKGA D
under Tmac

PC went and got
Larsson
toughest comp /ZS situation since 05 lockout
top 10 HSCA D
top 15 SA/60 D
#1 GA/60 D
#12 PKGA D
a player who had elite results under the new coach in SJ.
Who's play should translate Under Tmac
who got same D system results in SJS
as the new SJ coach with the same players.

3. Top centers
Mcdavid: thanks for winning the lottery MacT
#1 C 2.69 EVP/60; #2 Fwd; Jagr
#4 C 1.15 EVG/60; Spezza; Pavelski; Seguin
#2 C 3.36 EVGF/60; #3 fwd; Jagr; Thorton

Draisatl: Thanks for drafting him MacT
PVP center last year.
+ve goal diff player
with these players
w/ RNH +1.80 GD/60
w/ Pouliot + 1.35 GD/60
w/ Maroon +0.93 GD/60
w/ Kassian + 0.75 GD/60
w/ pakarinen +0.38 GD/60
W/ Hall +.14 GD/60

RNH: thanks Tambo
8th best 18yr rookie season in modern era 67-68 to 15-16) facing 2nd comp.
PvP center age 19-22
when healthy:
21G 35A -2
when injured
10G 28A 38p -12
when he faces 2nd comp or less he is a 1.08 PPG player.

oilers were clearly aware they needed to add Golaies; D; enters under MacT
Nurse drafted
Draisatl drafted
Mcdavid drafted
Talbot Aranged trade.

PC went and got the correct coach fro the HSCA d system needed for cup caliber play.

PC went and got the best HSCA D the last 2 years.
For one of the best wingers in the game.
replaced him with a winger that gets similar g and points for the season but qvg 11-13 more gams played per season.
meaning none of those games being replaced by a #13-#15 forward.

What does the bolded even mean?

 

[T-Funk]

That post might as well be written in wingdings font.

 

[KlefDown]

Hsca?

high scoring chances against / per 60

oilerbear's analytics are complicated sometimes

 

[McGoMcD]

All I can say about reading the last few threads in people really undervalue Nuge and overvalue Hall. Hall averages 70 points per 82 games for his career. Nuge averages 58, he is 1 and half years younger and plays much better defensively. If people think Nuge for Larsson would have been great but Hall for Larsson is horrible, they are really of on Hall vs Nuge.

Personally I would keep Nuge ahead of Hall.

 

[Replacement*]

All I can say about reading the last few threads in people really undervalue Nuge and overvalue Hall. Hall averages 70 points per 82 games for his career. Nuge averages 58, he is 1 and half years younger and plays much better defensively. If people think Nuge for Larsson would have been great but Hall for Larsson is horrible, they are really of on Hall vs Nuge.

Personally I would keep Nuge ahead of Hall.

How on Earth does Nuge average 58pts/season when he's never obtained that many pts in any season he's played..

This must be the new maths...

 

[Cizin]

How on Earth does Nuge average 58pts/season when he's never obtained that many pts in any season he's played..

This must be the new maths...

Key words from his post: "per 82 games"

 

[Panda Bear]

RNH's NHL totals are 222 points over 312 games, which means that he averages 0.709 points per game. Across 82 games, that's 58 points.

And if for some disingenuous reason you want to discount his rookie situation, he goes to averaging 55 points per season. (56 if you round up.)

 

[Fourier]

I was referring to his shoulder injury (injuries?) earlier in his career, which I thought hampered his development.

Then again, I'm no doctor or physio, so maybe it was unrelated to his body type.

Hall had the same injury, a torn labrum in the shoulder. Both actually had the initial damage done in Junior and then had the tear aggravated in the NHL. Hall's was on contact. Nuge hit a rut and went awkwardly into the boards. Hemsky had both shoulders tear. It is one of the most common serious injuries in hockey that happens to players of all sizes.

A few days ago I looked at an admittedly incomplete list of injuries to players during the 2015-2016 season, excluding goalies. The median weight of a player in the NHL is just over 200lbs. Of the 354 injuries I saw in the report 238 were to players that were 200 lbs or more, 116 were to players that were under 200 lbs. And the group under 200 lbs included guys like Tootoo, Anisimov, Burrows etc who clearly would not be considered too small for their role. The only team where small guys got hurt far more often than big guys was Tampa. In their case, this was due to the fact that almost all of their forwards are under 200 lbs.

For Nashville, the team published a nice summary of their injuries last year. There were 14 injuries to players over 205 lbs resulting in 145 games missed. For players under 200 lbs it was 2 injuries for a total of 2 missed games. They are a big team though with about 16 of their 22 roster players over 200lbs. If I set the cutoff at about 205 lbs the split on the roster is about even but the bigger guys still dominated the injury list.

I can't prove this since this is really rough data, but looking at the names of injured players it would seem that the biggest risk factors for injury would be 1) you are a defenseman, 2) you are a big guy who plays a very physical game.

 

[LaGu]

....

 

[Replacement*]

Key words from his post: "per 82 games"

Pt stands that its disingenuous, blatantly, to say a player has averaged 58pts in his career when he hasn't hit that once total in his entire career. That's when proration gets overboard silly. Reality is that since rookie year Nuge has had two good seasons and two very disappointing seasons. Meanwhile Hall has knocked it out of the ball park in 2/4 of the last seasons EXCEEDING PPG rates.

RNH's NHL totals are 222 points over 312 games, which means that he averages 0.709 points per game. Across 82 games, that's 58 points.

And if for some disingenuous reason you want to discount his rookie situation, he goes to averaging 55 points per season. (56 if you round up.)

Why would it be disingenuous? Other than one month of March over the last 2 rookie seasons Nuges hasn't looked even remotely how he looked in rookie season.

Next, proration doesn't reflect what the player actually contributes relative to his contractual cap space in a capped league. Getting 34pts out of a 6M buck player is crap, Getting 20 pts out of him in lockout year is crap. Does he show up every 2nd season?

 

[Replacement*]

Keeping Nuge instead of Hall is just laughably inane.

I've read some whoppers over the years on the board but frankly I don't get this fascination with Nuge who is stated to be many things he isn't. As stated by another poster he tries to be a jack of all trades and isn't great at any of it.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Keeping Nuge instead of Hall is just laughably inane.

I've read some whoppers over the years on the board but frankly I don't get this fascination with Nuge who is stated to be many things he isn't. As stated by another poster he tries to be a jack of all trades and isn't great at any of it.

Well is it any wonder why he's worth Matt Dumba then?

Our players are trash and are appropriately worth that much.

 

[Draiskull]

Keeping Nuge instead of Hall is just laughably inane.

I've read some whoppers over the years on the board but frankly I don't get this fascination with Nuge who is stated to be many things he isn't. As stated by another poster he tries to be a jack of all trades and isn't great at any of it.

So you are saying that Nuge was enough to fetch us Larsson?

NJ asked for either Hall or McDavid .. Chia gave him Hall..

Time to move on!

 

[Replacement*]

Well is it any wonder why he's worth Matt Dumba then?

Our players are trash and are appropriately worth that much.

The irony in this select Oiler fans appraisal of Nuge>Hall is its a reactionary sour grapes approach of "well we preferred Nuge more anyway" when the reality is NJ laughed at any suggestion of RNH in trade for Larsson (Nuge regressing relative in vaue to Larsson since draft year) and thus requiring Hall to be used in the trade.

Quite clearly no managers are valuing Nuge over Hall or he'd be gone. you can't even trade Nuges contract. Who would pay 6M for what he brings?