Taylor Hall For Adam Larsson V | 4,000+ Posts and Counting!

[nabob]

So on the one hand we have a legit media guy with connections. And on the other we have you.

Hmm. Tough call.

It's interesting that you call that speculation when he's is pretty unequivocal about how events went down. The only speculation he makes in that 30 Thoughts piece is around why things went down the way they did.



When I should be taking your thoughts and speculation and quoting them as if they are gospel, right? Nah, I'll pass.



Continually? My dude, you haven't even tried. You haven't provided a single source or citation to support your version of events.

Tell you what: I'll stop talking about this entirely when you provide a single reliable source stating Montreal pulled out of the trade talks when Columbus picked PLD. Go.

Why should I waste any more time arguing against your strawman about hypotheticals that fit your narrative. You can believe what you want, what that is I honestly don't know. You have moved the goal posts so many times in this thread to support your narrative that you now want to argue about pure speculation.

I don't have a source that says Montreal pulled out once PLD was picked by CBJ. I said it was my opinion that it was what happened. It could very well be as Panda said that once Puljujarvi was still available for Chia that he nixed any deals as he valued Puli just as much as Montreal valued PLD.

From now on I'll stick to discussions about Hall, Larsson and the trade that happened instead of your narratives and potential hypothetical situations that cannot be proven.

 

[Halibut]

Why should I waste any more time arguing against your strawman about hypotheticals that fit your narrative. You can believe what you want, what that is I honestly don't know. You have moved the goal posts so many times in this thread to support your narrative that you now want to argue about pure speculation.

I don't have a source that says Montreal pulled out once PLD was picked by CBJ. I said it was my opinion that it was what happened. It could very well be as Panda said that once Puljujarvi was still available for Chia that he nixed any deals as he valued Puli just as much as Montreal valued PLD.

From now on I'll stick to discussions about Hall, Larsson and the trade that happened instead of your narratives and potential hypothetical situations that cannot be proven.

I think the whole discussing a potential trade for Subban is pretty much a waste of time whether missing out on the french center killed it or not. It's all speculation, the potential pieces are not even known. We've all seen the list and it always includes a + some other significant piece on top of the players named that nobody fully agrees on anyways. Whatever it was the deal fell apart, we dont even know who backed out. Whether Montreal had second thoughts and decided that even if they raped us to hell and back they'd still be missing out on the defensive piece they needed so they went with the deal for Weber, or if we decided we couldnt give up that much young talent for one guy with a massive cap hit. It didnt happen, it sounds like it wasnt all that close to happening so we might as well move on. It was another failed attempt to get a d-man like many we've gone through in the past.

Trading Hall for Larsson is what happened. It's pretty easy to see that we lost the deal but we might have been able to build a better team because of it. We have to wait and see what happens once we start playing hockey again.

 

[Panda Bear]

Hey, didn't Eakins try playing with the Endurance Slider when RNH returned from injury during his first season

 

[nabob]

I think the whole discussing a potential trade for Subban is pretty much a waste of time whether missing out on the french center killed it or not. It's all speculation, the potential pieces are not even known. We've all seen the list and it always includes a + some other significant piece on top of the players named that nobody fully agrees on anyways. Whatever it was the deal fell apart, we dont even know who backed out. Whether Montreal had second thoughts and decided that even if they raped us to hell and back they'd still be missing out on the defensive piece they needed so they went with the deal for Weber, or if we decided we couldnt give up that much young talent for one guy with a massive cap hit. It didnt happen, it sounds like it wasnt all that close to happening so we might as well move on. It was another failed attempt to get a d-man like many we've gone through in the past.

Trading Hall for Larsson is what happened. It's pretty easy to see that we lost the deal but we might have been able to build a better team because of it. We have to wait and see what happens once we start playing hockey again.

Totally agree. Guess it was silly to speculate on why the trade fell through. So many factors, the availability of PLD was only one of them, the significant add to Drai, Klef, #4 was another, Chia having a shot at Pujujarvi that he didn't think was possible was another, Nashville making Weber available is another. In all reality it probably wasn't that close to happening as everything needs to go right for a massive trade like that to happen.

Cheers.

 

[Dorian2]

I'm just curious how Subban's contract was structured. And where he was in the UFA/RFA stuff. Did Subban have a vote on where to be traded? Was there a possibility of a gentleman's contract involved? Would Subban have even come to Edmonton?

Seems ridiculous to me that there is an argument about a player that just isn't.....an Oiler. What gives?

 

[Panda Bear]

In human genetics, there is gene titled ACTN3. Its expression is limited to skeletal muscle, and it encodes the proportion of fast-twitch muscle fibers to slow-twitch muscle fibers in the human body. R577X is an ACTN3 gene mutation that is deficient in producing the alpha-actinin 3 protein, which leads to a significantly lower proportion of fast-twitch muscle fibers to slow-twitch muscle fibers.

If someone carries both ACTN3 genes, then their muscles are encoded for explosive force. If someone carries both mutations, then their muscles are encoded for endurance. Someone carrying ACTN3 and R577X is a balance between these two. When we look at top-level sprinters and other explosive athletes, we can see that they all have both ACTN3 genes. And when we look at long-distance runners and other workhorse athletes, we can see that they tend to carry at least one copy of R577X.

So when we jump back to Adam Larsson's skating, we have to consider his genetics. On a technical level, Adam is a superb skater. His top speed relative to other players, which is often technique related, is fine. His acceleration, however, is lacking.

In all likelihood, his acceleration will always be lacking and his top speed will never be outstanding. What Adam may lack in explosive speed, he makes up for in endurance. As a defenceman with excellent positioning, this is a good thing: he can log heavy minutes.

 

[nabob]

The last Dman who could be described like that was...Pronger? Healthy Whitney?

 

[Aequitas]

The last Dman who could be described like that was...Pronger? Healthy Whitney?

Pronger. Whitney was good when healthy but I don't recall him doing 30 a game like pronger.

 

[Young Lions*]

Why should I waste any more time arguing against your strawman about hypotheticals that fit your narrative. You can believe what you want, what that is I honestly don't know. You have moved the goal posts so many times in this thread to support your narrative that you now want to argue about pure speculation.

I don't have a source that says Montreal pulled out once PLD was picked by CBJ. I said it was my opinion that it was what happened. It could very well be as Panda said that once Puljujarvi was still available for Chia that he nixed any deals as he valued Puli just as much as Montreal valued PLD.

You were adamant that things went down the way you said they did, only to now admit that it was pure speculation on your part without a shred of evidence to support it. All because it fits your narrative. So your little rant above betrays a staggering lack of self-awareness. Or as folks say around here: pot, meet kettle.

From now on I'll stick to discussions about Hall, Larsson and the trade that happened instead of your narratives and potential hypothetical situations that cannot be proven.

And I'll move on as well, but will continue to stick versions of events as reported by those with actual connections instead of narratives invented out of whole cloth by random internet people.

 

[Panda Bear]

I'm also going to repost something that I wrote regarding Adam Larsson's offensive production.

In 2014/15, the season before Larsson and Greene got buried as the NHL's most abused shutdown pairing, Larsson posted 24 points in 64 games (21 EV and 3 SH). He lead all defencemen on his team in points.

Using the powers of NHL.com and Microsoft Excel, the Devils scored 133 goals during Adam Larsson's 64 games. They scored 104 even strength goals, which is a rate of 1.63 even strength goals a game. Larsson had a rate of 0.33 even strength points a game. This means that Adam Larsson had a point on 20.2% of all even strength goals scored by New Jersey. The league averaged 177 even-strength goals per team across the season, which means the "average" team scored 138 even strength goals over 64 games. That's a difference of 34 goals, which is a difference of about 7 points for someone who contributes on 20.2% of all even-strength goals.

Now I am going to compare the 14/15 Devils with the 14/15 Canadiens. I'll be using GF% because it's a decent indicator of who's winning the war on ice. Three crappy shots versus one stretch pass leading to a breakaway may be better for Corsi, but it doesn't account for quality. Adam Larsson's PDO was 1015. The target for my comparison's PDO was 1019.

PK Subban had 39 even strength points across 82 games at a rate of 0.48 even strength points a game. The Canadiens scored 181 even strength goals, which is a rate 2.21 even strength goals a game. This means that Subban had a point on 21.5% of all even strength goals scored by Montreal.

Now, of course Subban is better than Larsson offensively. That's not what I'm getting at. Subban drives play. He's a wonderful skater, has a cannon of a shot, sees the ice fantastically, and takes risks. He's going to help his teammates produce.

Top Five New Jersey Devil even-strength point producers

• 31
• 27
• 25
• 24
• 22

Total: 129 points

Top Five Montreal Canadien even-strength point producers (excluding Subban)

• 58
• 44
• 39
• 37
• 34

Total: 212 points, 64% higher than New Jersey

Larsson's GF% impact, off-ice --> on-ice

• 31: 50% --> 63.2%
• 27: 43.6-->66.7%
• 25: 55%-->61.5%
• 24: 36.1%-->45.0%
• 22: 55.2%-->53.8% (thanks Jagr)

Larsson and Greene together had a 51.1% GF share, which means that when Larsson was given an offensive push by playing with this players, he had a positive impact. All of Greene's WOWY numbers (unless I'm missing something) with the top scorers were worse than Larsson's in 14/15 for GF%.

Subban's GF% impact, off-ice --> on-ice

• 58: 75%-->61%
• 44: 51.1%-->51.4%
• 39: 56.8%-->60%
• 37: 69%-->57.1%
• 34: 48.8%-->65.9%

Looking at the numbers, you can see that Larsson had a more significant positive impact on the top scorers of his team than Subban did. With the exception of Jagr, every single Devils forward had a measurable improvement on winning the war on ice with Larsson on the ice with them. On the Canadiens, Pacioretty, Desharnais (credit to Pacioretty) and Plekanec were fine without Subban in controlling the ice.

None of this means that Larsson is equal to or better offensively than Subban, but it does suggest that Adam Larsson helps his teammates score more frequently when he's on the ice. The numbers suggest that Subban had a stronger supporting cast that season, too, which should be pretty obvious when you compare 129 points to 212 points for the top five producers. 2014/15 is with Hart trophy Carey Price in net too, which I assume more than makes up for Cory Schneider being in the Devils' net.

This was complicated and took forever. If only I could genuinely multiply Adam Larsson's 0.33 by 1.64 (as per the top five scorers aggregate % difference) to say that Larsson would have put up 0.54 EVP/game for the Canadiens in 2014/15. But I can assure you that Larsson's EVP/game would be a damned sight better than 0.33 were he swapped with Subban for that season.

In sum, Larsson could have produced 28 points in 64 games--all at even-strength, 32 with his short-handed point production rate--on the average NHL team working from his 14/15 data. That prorates to a fraction under 36 points, 40 points all told without powerplay time. I brought up Subban as a comparable to show that while Larsson may not have the flash and offensive game that Subban does, he is more than talented enough himself in tilting the ice.

Expecting Larsson to hit 30 points while playing for our team is not beyond any realistic expectations. Expecting him to hit 40 points is possible depending on his chemistry and deployment. 50? Maybe one day with some powerplay time.

 

[nabob]

delete

WOuld be great if both Klefbom and Larsson could reach their potential and become 30-40 point guys who are very good in their own end. Allowing others like Nurse and Sekera to not have to play above their level constantly.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I think the whole discussing a potential trade for Subban is pretty much a waste of time whether missing out on the french center killed it or not. It's all speculation, the potential pieces are not even known. We've all seen the list and it always includes a + some other significant piece on top of the players named that nobody fully agrees on anyways. Whatever it was the deal fell apart, we dont even know who backed out. Whether Montreal had second thoughts and decided that even if they raped us to hell and back they'd still be missing out on the defensive piece they needed so they went with the deal for Weber, or if we decided we couldnt give up that much young talent for one guy with a massive cap hit. It didnt happen, it sounds like it wasnt all that close to happening so we might as well move on. It was another failed attempt to get a d-man like many we've gone through in the past.

Trading Hall for Larsson is what happened. It's pretty easy to see that we lost the deal but we might have been able to build a better team because of it. We have to wait and see what happens once we start playing hockey again.

exactly....we will never know the full details of the deal...and whether the extra piece on top of Drai/Klefbom/#4 was a significant one for smaller

its all hypothetical and speculation

 

[Halibut]

In sum, Larsson could have produced 28 points in 64 games--all at even-strength, 32 with his short-handed point production rate--on the average NHL team working from his 14/15 data. That prorates to a fraction under 36 points, 40 points all told without powerplay time. I brought up Subban as a comparable to show that while Larsson may not have the flash and offensive game that Subban does, he is more than talented enough himself in tilting the ice.

Expecting Larsson to hit 30 points while playing for our team is not beyond any realistic expectations. Expecting him to hit 40 points is possible depending on his chemistry and deployment. 50? Maybe one day with some powerplay time.

This is the development hope, that Larsson is more offensively than what he showed in Jersey while still being as good defensively. These kind of stats based arguements can show you what was going but it doesnt necessarily hold true for projections going forward since things are definitely changing. I hope Larsson can put up more points for us, or if he doesnt whoever ends up as his partner (Klefbom?) is able to take open up their offensive side more. There is no guarantee though.

 

[Panda Bear]

There are never guarantees with people.

 

[Young Lions*]

In sum, Larsson could have produced 28 points in 64 games--all at even-strength, 32 with his short-handed point production rate--on the average NHL team working from his 14/15 data. That prorates to a fraction under 36 points, 40 points all told without powerplay time. I brought up Subban as a comparable to show that while Larsson may not have the flash and offensive game that Subban does, he is more than talented enough himself in tilting the ice.

Expecting Larsson to hit 30 points while playing for our team is not beyond any realistic expectations. Expecting him to hit 40 points is possible depending on his chemistry and deployment. 50? Maybe one day with some powerplay time.

Can I ask what in your opinion why you feel 14/15 is a better indicator of what to expect than his most recent season?

 

[Panda Bear]

Because Larsson was buried in his own zone worse than every other NHL defenceman other than his partner, Greene, this past season every single metric possible.

http://www.coppernblue.com/2016/7/6...mpt-shares-the-new-jersey-devils-adam-larsson
http://www.coppernblue.com/2016/7/7/12121560/adam-larsson-offensive-zone-starts-goals-for-percentage

EDIT: McLellan has never deployed his defencemen like how Larsson was deployed last year. We can expect Larsson's usage to be more similar to 14/15 than 15/16.

 

[scb23]

I'm also going to repost something that I wrote regarding Adam Larsson's offensive production.

In 2014/15, the season before Larsson and Greene got buried as the NHL's most abused shutdown pairing, Larsson posted 24 points in 64 games (21 EV and 3 SH). He lead all defencemen on his team in points.

Using the powers of NHL.com and Microsoft Excel, the Devils scored 133 goals during Adam Larsson's 64 games. They scored 104 even strength goals, which is a rate of 1.63 even strength goals a game. Larsson had a rate of 0.33 even strength points a game. This means that Adam Larsson had a point on 20.2% of all even strength goals scored by New Jersey. The league averaged 177 even-strength goals per team across the season, which means the "average" team scored 138 even strength goals over 64 games. That's a difference of 34 goals, which is a difference of about 7 points for someone who contributes on 20.2% of all even-strength goals.

Now I am going to compare the 14/15 Devils with the 14/15 Canadiens. I'll be using GF% because it's a decent indicator of who's winning the war on ice. Three crappy shots versus one stretch pass leading to a breakaway may be better for Corsi, but it doesn't account for quality. Adam Larsson's PDO was 1015. The target for my comparison's PDO was 1019.

PK Subban had 39 even strength points across 82 games at a rate of 0.48 even strength points a game. The Canadiens scored 181 even strength goals, which is a rate 2.21 even strength goals a game. This means that Subban had a point on 21.5% of all even strength goals scored by Montreal.

Now, of course Subban is better than Larsson offensively. That's not what I'm getting at. Subban drives play. He's a wonderful skater, has a cannon of a shot, sees the ice fantastically, and takes risks. He's going to help his teammates produce.

Top Five New Jersey Devil even-strength point producers

• 31
• 27
• 25
• 24
• 22

Total: 129 points

Top Five Montreal Canadien even-strength point producers (excluding Subban)

• 58
• 44
• 39
• 37
• 34

Total: 212 points, 64% higher than New Jersey

Larsson's GF% impact, off-ice --> on-ice

• 31: 50% --> 63.2%
• 27: 43.6-->66.7%
• 25: 55%-->61.5%
• 24: 36.1%-->45.0%
• 22: 55.2%-->53.8% (thanks Jagr)

Larsson and Greene together had a 51.1% GF share, which means that when Larsson was given an offensive push by playing with this players, he had a positive impact. All of Greene's WOWY numbers (unless I'm missing something) with the top scorers were worse than Larsson's in 14/15 for GF%.

Subban's GF% impact, off-ice --> on-ice

• 58: 75%-->61%
• 44: 51.1%-->51.4%
• 39: 56.8%-->60%
• 37: 69%-->57.1%
• 34: 48.8%-->65.9%

Looking at the numbers, you can see that Larsson had a more significant positive impact on the top scorers of his team than Subban did. With the exception of Jagr, every single Devils forward had a measurable improvement on winning the war on ice with Larsson on the ice with them. On the Canadiens, Pacioretty, Desharnais (credit to Pacioretty) and Plekanec were fine without Subban in controlling the ice.

None of this means that Larsson is equal to or better offensively than Subban, but it does suggest that Adam Larsson helps his teammates score more frequently when he's on the ice. The numbers suggest that Subban had a stronger supporting cast that season, too, which should be pretty obvious when you compare 129 points to 212 points for the top five producers. 2014/15 is with Hart trophy Carey Price in net too, which I assume more than makes up for Cory Schneider being in the Devils' net.

This was complicated and took forever. If only I could genuinely multiply Adam Larsson's 0.33 by 1.64 (as per the top five scorers aggregate % difference) to say that Larsson would have put up 0.54 EVP/game for the Canadiens in 2014/15. But I can assure you that Larsson's EVP/game would be a damned sight better than 0.33 were he swapped with Subban for that season.

In sum, Larsson could have produced 28 points in 64 games--all at even-strength, 32 with his short-handed point production rate--on the average NHL team working from his 14/15 data. That prorates to a fraction under 36 points, 40 points all told without powerplay time. I brought up Subban as a comparable to show that while Larsson may not have the flash and offensive game that Subban does, he is more than talented enough himself in tilting the ice.

Expecting Larsson to hit 30 points while playing for our team is not beyond any realistic expectations. Expecting him to hit 40 points is possible depending on his chemistry and deployment. 50? Maybe one day with some powerplay time.

Great post. I see good reason for optimism with Larsson.

 

[McPuritania]

Can I ask what in your opinion why you feel 14/15 is a better indicator of what to expect than his most recent season?

If we go by most recent seasons, Hall is clearly on the decline.

 

[Jet Walters]

There are never guarantees with people.

It's encouraging data you've compiled there PB, but I will be shocked if Larsson puts up 30+ 5vs5 points next year. Only Byfuglien, Burns, and Karlsson did that last year. Even 25 points is a feat, with only 12 defensemen hitting that mark last year. If he gets lots of 4vs4 time, puts up Sekera level 3vs3 overtime totals, and springs McDavid for a few shorthanded goals I could see 25-30 points with no PP time though.

 

[Panda Bear]

Jet: Another concern is McLellan's fascination for low-to-high offensive tactics, which emphasizes shots from the point rather than puck movement.

A positive, though, is that Larsson will get to use his breakout pass on McDavid. It'd be like Ryan Whitney under Crosby all over again.

 

[Panda Bear]

Young Lions, found some other thing I wrote about Larsson in 15/16 regarding his deployment and situation:

• New Jersey Devils scored the fewest number of goals in the league with 182. The second worst team (Vancouver) scored 186 goals, and the third worst team (Carolina and Toronto) scored 192. New Jersey allowed 202 goals. Their GF% was 47.3%.
• But that includes powerplay time, and Larsson was too busy playing averaging 22:31 a game in even strength and penalty kill.
• At even strength, New Jersey had a GF% of 45.2%.
• Larsson's GF% was 55.4%. He was one of four players on his team to have a positive +- On/60.
• New Jersey Devils were worst in the league at generating shots with 24.4 shots generated per game and allowed 28.6 shots per game. The team's Corsi% was 46.0%.
• Adam Larsson's 44.9%, which is -1.1% relatively, but...
• When games were close and you adjusted for zone, New Jersey's Corsi% was 47.3%. So was Larsson's with the same adjustments.
• He had one of the highest defensive zone start percentages in the league at 47.4%. His OffZone Start % was 30.5%, and his OffZone Finish % was 42.5%. His ZSO%Rel was -24.9%.
• The only defencemen who had worse Corsi Quality of Teammates (i.e. average Corsi of Teammates, weighted by ice time together) were players from Colorado, who are blessed with the worst head coach in the NHL right now.

So when you look at the quality of his teammates, his defensive zone usage, and then skip over to places like behindthenet.ca, war-on-ice, hockey-analysis and other websites with their fancy metrics, you see a player who did extremely heavy lifting and somehow did well in it.

 

[oobga]

Hey, didn't Eakins try playing with the Endurance Slider when RNH returned from injury during his first season

He broke the slider with the Dallas Eakins super amazing marathon runner inspired workout and diet plan. If you weren't able to max out the slider with his awesome guidance, it was your own fault!

 

[Jet Walters]

Jet: Another concern is McLellan's fascination for low-to-high offensive tactics, which emphasizes shots from the point rather than puck movement.

A positive, though, is that Larsson will get to use his breakout pass on McDavid. It'd be like Ryan Whitney under Crosby all over again.

We are built a lot better for that philosophy this year than last though. It's imperative that you can cycle the puck well down low to open up those shots from the point, and even more important to have at least one body making life difficult for the goalie when the shot does come.

At the start of last year we had no consistent cycle game or net front presence. Adding Kassian, Maroon, and Lucic should help create offense off the cycle game/point shot.

In a way, the Oilers lack of scoring from the blueline has been a direct result of a poorly constructed group of forwards, and having so many forwards who need PP time limited the number minutes our defensemen saw there too. I expect better production from everyone back there with the changes up front.

 

[ManofSteel55]

This is the development hope, that Larsson is more offensively than what he showed in Jersey while still being as good defensively. These kind of stats based arguements can show you what was going but it doesnt necessarily hold true for projections going forward since things are definitely changing. I hope Larsson can put up more points for us, or if he doesnt whoever ends up as his partner (Klefbom?) is able to take open up their offensive side more. There is no guarantee though.

If you believe Devils fans, they think the offensive skill set to be there. Larsson wasn't given much time to produce at all last year, he really was placed beside Greene in the shut down role. But if he does indeed have the skating, passing, powerplay qb ability that some say he does, then we will be very happy with him going forward.

 

[Panda Bear]

We are built a lot better for that philosophy this year than last though. It's imperative that you can cycle the puck well down low to open up those shots from the point, and even more important to have at least one body making life difficult for the goalie when the shot does come.

At the start of last year we had no consistent cycle game or net front presence. Adding Kassian, Maroon, and Lucic should help create offense off the cycle game/point shot.

In a way, the Oilers lack of scoring from the blueline has been a direct result of a poorly constructed group of forwards, and having so many forwards who need PP time limited the number minutes our defensemen saw there too. I expect better production from everyone back there with the changes up front.

I agree with you.

My problem with going low-to-high is that it emphasises shooting from the point, an area which I still think we are weak in. If we work low-to-high so that the defenders can pick a pass, Larsson will shine. If Larsson's expected to rocket the puck every time, we're going to be slightly disappointed.