Tavares extension -> May Reportedly Happen in the Near Future

[Sypher04]

O reilly is a good comparison. O reilly cap hit is 4.5 million. Factor in Tavares knowing he is over paid for the last 5 years especially now, he is over paid by 4 or 5 million per. A fair deal is 3 or 3,5 million cap hit over 3 years. His skating is only going to get worse each year. O reilly is a little younger and a better player right now. Ideally he takes 1 million per on a 3 or 4 yr deal. Also, let him know he has a job on the front office with the Leafs when he retires.

O’Reilly is a poor skater in his own right.
Their ages difference is negligible
Tavares is the better player offensively.
Defense doesn’t really get you paid as a forward.
Tavares is also far healthier

Especially against a significantly rising cap, I don’t see why Tavares takes much, if anything, less than the O’Reilly deal.

 

[hamzarocks]

O’Reilly is a poor skater in his own right.
Their ages difference is negligible
Tavares is the better player offensively.
Defense doesn’t really get you paid as a forward.
Tavares is also far healthier

Especially against a significantly rising cap, I don’t see why Tavares takes much, if anything, less than the O’Reilly deal.

Tavares has 0 leverage according to most people here

He wont sign anywhere but toronto (with maybe an exception for Ottawa made)

If that is the case the negotiations are on your terms 100%

No pampering, no catering, you give your offer and time to respond, if Tavares is hesitant or playing games you walk right away

Stamkos is a better player for peak, prime, career and longevity than Tavares, his impact and value on Tampa was much higher than Tavares has been anywhere in his career, yet they stayed firm on their deal and moved on from a legendary TBL to create space and retoop roster to what they see as a better contending team

We need to be active whenever our season ends next year. Trade market for 2C, UFA rental rights and early 2C signings if Tavares is stalling,

Tavares doesnt deserve anything from the leafs. Hes failed on every single action item we expected and him being brought back would be a favor to him since he apparently wants to finish gere in toronto.

If leafs management deems he is worth 3M x 2 then that is final offer for our 3C for the next years, if he declines, then walk away and build the roster with a younger and more complete player than Tavares who struggles to bring anything come playoffs

 

[Menzinger]

Tavares has 0 leverage according to most people here

He wont sign anywhere but toronto (with maybe an exception for Ottawa made)

If that is the case the negotiations are on your terms 100%

No pampering, no catering, you give your offer and time to respond, if Tavares is hesitant or playing games you walk right away

Stamkos is a better player for peak, prime, career and longevity than Tavares, his impact and value on Tampa was much higher than Tavares has been anywhere in his career, yet they stayed firm on their deal and moved on from a legendary TBL to create space and retoop roster to what they see as a better contending team

We need to be active whenever our season ends next year. Trade market for 2C, UFA rental rights and early 2C signings if Tavares is stalling,

Tavares doesnt deserve anything from the leafs. Hes failed on every single action item we expected and him being brought back would be a favor to him since he apparently wants to finish gere in toronto.

If leafs management deems he is worth 3M x 2 then that is final offer for our 3C for the next years, if he declines, then walk away and build the roster with a younger and more complete player than Tavares who struggles to bring anything come playoffs

The fallacy here is folks are very easily mistaking "strong preference to stay" with "will only sign here". Which I very much doubt will be the case.

There's going to be interest in the guy from other teams. That doesn't mean they absolutely need to sign him, but there's a lot of fantasy talk going on and about what his actual next contract is going to be throughout this thread

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Tavares has 0 leverage according to most people here

He wont sign anywhere but toronto (with maybe an exception for Ottawa made)

If that is the case the negotiations are on your terms 100%

No pampering, no catering, you give your offer and time to respond, if Tavares is hesitant or playing games you walk right away

Stamkos is a better player for peak, prime, career and longevity than Tavares, his impact and value on Tampa was much higher than Tavares has been anywhere in his career, yet they stayed firm on their deal and moved on from a legendary TBL to create space and retoop roster to what they see as a better contending team

We need to be active whenever our season ends next year. Trade market for 2C, UFA rental rights and early 2C signings if Tavares is stalling,

Tavares doesnt deserve anything from the leafs. Hes failed on every single action item we expected and him being brought back would be a favor to him since he apparently wants to finish gere in toronto.

If leafs management deems he is worth 3M x 2 then that is final offer for our 3C for the next years, if he declines, then walk away and build the roster with a younger and more complete player than Tavares who struggles to bring anything come playoffs

Great post!

 

[Gabriel426]

The fallacy here is folks are very easily mistaking "strong preference to stay" with "will only sign here". Which I very much doubt will be the case.

There's going to be interest in the guy from other teams. That doesn't mean they absolutely need to sign him, but there's a lot of fantasy talk going on and about what his actual next contract is going to be throughout this thread

Well, Spezza left Sens to join the Stars.
Think that’s the closest comparison that I could think of beside not drafting JT.

Personally, I just don’t think JT should be around after next season. Even if he is willing to sign for 950k bc he is not going to play the role of a bottom 6 player and he needs MM and Willie to carry him.

 

[Evilhomer]

The fallacy here is folks are very easily mistaking "strong preference to stay" with "will only sign here". Which I very much doubt will be the case.

There's going to be interest in the guy from other teams. That doesn't mean they absolutely need to sign him, but there's a lot of fantasy talk going on and about what his actual next contract is going to be throughout this thread

I disagree. I think this is very much a "he will only sign here" situation. He's not going anywhere, short of the Leafs inexplicably growing a spine and moving on from him. Spoiler: they won't. They will sign him, because he will agree to a number that is well under market.

 

[Menzinger]

I disagree. I think this is very much a "he will only sign here" situation. He's not going anywhere, short of the Leafs inexplicably growing a spine and moving on from him. Spoiler: they won't. They will sign him, because he will agree to a number that is well under market.

I expect he will extend here below market caphit as well - but I think he's going to be given longer term than people think I'm expecting 5 or so years, similar to what they did with Tanev. If he drops that aav, he's not going short term.

 

[hotpaws]

O’Reilly is a poor skater in his own right.
Their ages difference is negligible
Tavares is the better player offensively.
Defense doesn’t really get you paid as a forward.
Tavares is also far healthier

Especially against a significantly rising cap, I don’t see why Tavares takes much, if anything, less than the O’Reilly deal.

- sure the age difference between them is ''negligible'' if you ignore that Mumbles will be 2 1/2 yrs older than ROR when their new deals kick in

- Mumbles isn't better offensively at this point

- defense combined with also being solid offensively does get you paid as a forward

- ''Mumbles is far healthier'' , you just made that up hoping no one checks you bullshit

it's sad your desperation to get Mumbles re-signed has led you to post misinformation and out right lies

 

[hotpaws]

I expect he will extend here below market caphit as well - but I think he's going to be given longer term than people think I'm expecting 5 or so years, similar to what they did with Tanev. If he drops that aav, he's not going short term.

below market cap hit ?

so we overpay him but argue to the death it's a discount because another team was rumored to have offered more ?

 

[seanlinden]

Call me crazy, but if we were to fast forward a to July next year and assume none of the pending UFAs resign, Tavares would either be the 2nd or 3rd most "in demand" centre; obviously behind Draisaitl, and maybe splitting hairs with Bennett.

We can all puff our chests about "needing to move on"; but objectively, there's probably going to be a price where it makes sense to keep him.

I don't get the sense or belief that we'd be contenders for Draisaitl.... so if you're faced with the alternative of giving Sam Bennett 7 years at $7.5m, or John Tavares 3 years at $4.5m; to me it would seem that Tavares is much more desirable option.

It might also be worth considering -- the Leafs don't exactly have a ton of trade capital to work with. If you let Tavares walk, you're most likely looking to the trade market for a replacement... on top of still likely looking for another defenceman.

 

[hotpaws]

Call me crazy, but if we were to fast forward a to July next year and assume none of the pending UFAs resign, Tavares would either be the 2nd or 3rd most "in demand" centre; obviously behind Draisaitl, and maybe splitting hairs with Bennett.

We can all puff our chests about "needing to move on"; but objectively, there's probably going to be a price where it makes sense to keep him.

I don't get the sense or belief that we'd be contenders for Draisaitl.... so if you're faced with the alternative of giving Sam Bennett 7 years at $7.5m, or John Tavares 3 years at $4.5m; to me it would seem that Tavares is much more desirable option.

It might also be worth considering -- the Leafs don't exactly have a ton of trade capital to work with. If you let Tavares walk, you're most likely looking to the trade market for a replacement... on top of still likely looking for another defenceman.

i guess Tavares performing poorly in the playoffs never gets old for some people

 

[notDatsyuk]

The fallacy here is folks are very easily mistaking "strong preference to stay" with "will only sign here". Which I very much doubt will be the case.

There's going to be interest in the guy from other teams. That doesn't mean they absolutely need to sign him, but there's a lot of fantasy talk going on and about what his actual next contract is going to be throughout this thread

I agree. My personal take would be to make him an offer that the team feels is reasonable - say 3 years at $3M to play 3C. If he takes it, fine. If he wants to try free agency and finds an offer he prefers, also fine. Unless the fa offer is very close (in which case why would he take it?) I wouldn't try to match it.

 

[seanlinden]

i guess Tavares performing poorly in the playoffs never gets old for some people

Tavares doesn't perform like an $11m player in the playoffs... no doubt.

But does he perform like a $4-5m player? With the Leafs, he's had 24 points in 37 playoff games.... I'll exclude the one he got kicked in the head of... a pace of .64 points per game.

The Panthers played 24 playoff games last year... at that puts Tavares pace at 15-16 points, with roughly half of them being goals. On Florida, he would have been 5th-6th in points, and 3rd-4th in goals. How much more do you want out of a guy if he's making $4m?

Furthermore, it may be worth considering that with the way the game tends to evolve in the playoffs, having a guy who does more around the net versus in open ice, may be beneficial.

 

[I am Canadian]

3M x 3.

 

[hotpaws]

Tavares doesn't perform like an $11m player in the playoffs... no doubt.

But does he perform like a $4-5m player? With the Leafs, he's had 24 points in 37 playoff games.... I'll exclude the one he got kicked in the head of... a pace of .64 points per game.

The Panthers played 24 playoff games last year... at that puts Tavares pace at 15-16 points, with roughly half of them being goals. On Florida, he would have been 5th-6th in points, and 3rd-4th in goals. How much more do you want out of a guy if he's making $4m?

Furthermore, it may be worth considering that with the way the game tends to evolve in the playoffs, having a guy who does more around the net versus in open ice, may be beneficial.

so you're saying he's been performing as a $4m dollar in the playoffs since he came here at 28 yet believe his play won't drop when a new deal would kick in when he's 35 ?

it's remarkable how Mumbles has cultivated a huge fan base that's obsessed with defending him , it's truly remarkable that regardless of how he poorly he plays theses fans overlook t and just make new excuses for him , i can't remember another player that gets that type of treatment

 

[WillyC]

i guess Tavares performing poorly in the playoffs never gets old for some people

You know what gets old fast?… your constant daily whining and crying about Tavares.

However, as I’ve posted before… your whiny mumbles hissy fits are quite entertaining.

 

[hotpaws]

You know what gets old fast?… your constant daily whining and crying about Tavares.

However, as I’ve posted before… your whiny mumbles hissy fits are quite entertaining.

WILLIE IN THE HOUSE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

love when you show up to defend our FORMER mumbling Captain , your a good relative

gotta ask , has J Mumbles stopped crying since he got STRIPPED of the C ?

 

[WillyC]

WILLIE IN THE HOUSE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

love when you show up to defend our FORMER mumbling Captain , your a good relative

gotta ask , has J Mumbles stopped crying since he got STRIPPED of the C ?

lol… the CAPS make your hissy fit rants even more entertaining.

 

[hotpaws]

lol… the CAPS make your hissy fit rants even more entertaining.

come on Willie , don't hold out on me

tell me if Mumbles has stopped crying from getting STRIPPED of the C , i'm very concerned for him

i gots to know !

 

[Gabriel426]

Call me crazy, but if we were to fast forward a to July next year and assume none of the pending UFAs resign, Tavares would either be the 2nd or 3rd most "in demand" centre; obviously behind Draisaitl, and maybe splitting hairs with Bennett.

We can all puff our chests about "needing to move on"; but objectively, there's probably going to be a price where it makes sense to keep him.

I don't get the sense or belief that we'd be contenders for Draisaitl.... so if you're faced with the alternative of giving Sam Bennett 7 years at $7.5m, or John Tavares 3 years at $4.5m; to me it would seem that Tavares is much more desirable option.

It might also be worth considering -- the Leafs don't exactly have a ton of trade capital to work with. If you let Tavares walk, you're most likely looking to the trade market for a replacement... on top of still likely looking for another defenceman.

Bennett at 7.5mil all day over JT at 4.5mil.
Playoffs stud, plays nasty, can be a true shutdown C Vs playoffs dud, plays vanilla, forced to be the shutdown C due to lack of options.

Don’t understand why Leafs must keep JT…..
Leafs can also explore the trade option.

 

[notbias]

Great post!

I am not sure anything in there is accurate...

Bennett at 7.5mil all day over JT at 4.5mil.
Playoffs stud, plays nasty, can be a true shutdown C Vs playoffs dud, plays vanilla, forced to be the shutdown C due to lack of options.

Don’t understand why Leafs must keep JT…..
Leafs can also explore the trade option.

What is a playoff stud?

We have a bunch of guys who outperform Bennett who are duds, so just curious about what makes Bennett a stud.

Was it all his success in Calgary when he was more important or was it his success in Florida where he is like the 10th most important guy?

0.65 PPG over the last three years for Bennett = stud
0.64 PPG over the last three years for Tavares = dud
1.04 PPG over the last three years for Matthews = dud
1.00 PPG over the last three years for Marner = dud
0.91 PPG over the last three years for Nylander = dud

54.7% GF% for Bennett = stud
48.5% GF% for Tavares = dud (actually agree)
56.8% GF% for Matthews = dud
62.2% GF% for Marner = dud
48.7% GF% for Nylander = dud (actually agree)

Seems logical.

For the record, I think Bennett is good, but probably not a playoff stud.

Bennett also had the highest offensive zone starts on his team... who is he shutting down? That is Barkov...

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

He should be treated like what he is.

An UFA looking for a new contract, and it will be based on the player he is and his age.

Some seem to be trying to make into more than that.

I'm just saying what I'd pay for him at this point and I'd feel good about it since I already set him up for life. If not good enough then I would wish him the best on his new team.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I personally would prefer we moved on but if we're not...

Some of the numbers like 3x3 or 4.5M x2 years are probably about as much as I would do.

 

[notbias]

I personally would prefer we moved on but if we're not...

Some of the numbers like 3x3 or 4.5M x2 years are probably about as much as I would do.

Tanev just got a better contract than either of those... that isn't even close to market rate.

 

[conFABulator]

Tanev just got a better contract than either of those... that isn't even close to market rate.

The hope is that we get JT for much less than market rate. If ever there was a guy to take the hometown discount it should be Tavares.

Give him 5 x $3M, or six years. We front end load it, it is a pre-35 deal, and he doesn't have to leave Toronto. It's a great way to finish the story.

He gave up the C, he took a deep discount, and we got value on that contract for four or five years. He goes down as the guy that would do anything to win.

Signing before MM and apply some pressure that way too.