How many of them are declining with barely average foot speed and are set to be paid that ticket until they’re 38-39?
His production is dropping quick despite playing with elite talent, coming off a 77 mill contract, and a zero success over his term.
Rationalizing paying a late 30s Tavares 5+mill is insane. If he wants to be paid appropriately for his production he can do as Pavelski did and find it elsewhere. He’ll likely have no problem doing that.
It’s not about what his market value is, it’s about what he’s willing to take to win in a market he says he’s committed to. We need that number to be no higher than 4m short term.
Pavelski is actually a reasonable comparable here.... basically look at his 5 years worth of contracts with Dallas.
First contract was a 3-year deal at $6m (years 2 and 3 of that deal would be considered 35+ years).
Second contract was 1 year, $5.5m cap hit, and $500k of potential bonuses.
Third contract was another 1-year, $3.5m cap hit, and $2m of potential bonuses.
Prior to his inital contract with the Stars, Pavelski had 3 reasonably consistent years, producing in the mid 60s for points. From a goal perspective, his contract year he had 38, but the two prior years he had 29 and 22. Given his age, likely viewed as a guy that will score in the high 20s.
First year in Dallas was rough - 31 points in 67 games. but after that, Pavelski went on to play in every game for the Stars over 4 years. He put up 276 points in 302 games, a pace of 75 points per year, of which nearly 30 would have been goals.
Tavares right now is coming off a down year, but that "down year" for him was 65 points and 29 goals.
He's also a year younger than Pavelski was when he signed his initial Dallas contract.
Even if you equate Pavelski of 5 years ago and Tavares today (which i personally think is a very reasonable thing to do), factor in the cap changes, and he should reasonably be able to get himself a 3 or 4 year deal at $7m on the open market IMO.
Objectively, if you can get him for under $5m, how can you say no to that? Where are you going to get a better deal on a #2 centre?