Tavares extension -> May Reportedly Happen in the Near Future

[notbias]

The hope is that we get JT for much less than market rate. If ever there was a guy to take the hometown discount it should be Tavares.

He just took one, I hope he takes another though.

Give him 5 x $3M, or six years. We front end load it, it is a pre-35 deal, and he doesn't have to leave Toronto. It's a great way to finish the story.

He gave up the C, he took a deep discount, and we got value on that contract for four or five years. He goes down as the guy that would do anything to win.

Signing before MM and apply some pressure that way too.

I don't disagree, but he has left $14 million on the table already.

I don't think he owes Toronto anything, and I don't think he will be remembered fondly unless they win something, so not sure it matters if he does all this stuff.

 

[ULF_55]

The hope is that we get JT for much less than market rate. If ever there was a guy to take the hometown discount it should be Tavares.

Give him 5 x $3M, or six years. We front end load it, it is a pre-35 deal, and he doesn't have to leave Toronto. It's a great way to finish the story.

He gave up the C, he took a deep discount, and we got value on that contract for four or five years. He goes down as the guy that would do anything to win.

Signing before MM and apply some pressure that way too.

It would be nice, but it is still a business.

As I've said, he might take a discount, but he won't be taking much less than market rate, and Treliving is unlikely to ask him for a charity deal.

He still has a CRA bill that has to be covered.

 

[Mess]

It would be nice, but it is still a business.

As I've said, he might take a discount, but he won't be taking much less than market rate, and Treliving is unlikely to ask him for a charity deal.

He still has a CRA bill that has to be covered.

TSN's Chris Johnston joined TSN 1050's First Up this morning to discuss all things Toronto and was asked who was more likely to sign a contract extension between the two players. Johnston knew it was a loaded question, but gave an astute response that could have major implications heading into the season opener and beyond.

Tavares will be way more palatable at, say, 3 years and $6M per season

 

[seanlinden]

Bennett at 7.5mil all day over JT at 4.5mil.
Playoffs stud, plays nasty, can be a true shutdown C Vs playoffs dud, plays vanilla, forced to be the shutdown C due to lack of options.

Don’t understand why Leafs must keep JT…..
Leafs can also explore the trade option.

To be fair, Sam Bennett has been in the league a long time, and while he has a ton of the intangibles that you want in a playoff player, has career high of 49 points, and has only once scored more than 20 goals. He also doesn't exactly play a style that leads to longevity.

As for the trade market, certainly an option as well, but the Leafs don't exactly have a ton of trade assets, especially as they may be looking for a winger to replace Marner, and probably another defenceman, in addition to a #2 centre.

so you're saying he's been performing as a $4m dollar in the playoffs since he came here at 28 yet believe his play won't drop when a new deal would kick in when he's 35 ?

it's remarkable how Mumbles has cultivated a huge fan base that's obsessed with defending him , it's truly remarkable that regardless of how he poorly he plays theses fans overlook t and just make new excuses for him , i can't remember another player that gets that type of treatment

He's probably played like a $7m or $8m player throughout his playoff tenure in Toronto.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

JT taking a hometown discount based on some erroneously reported Sharks offer 8 years ago is such a sham statement I don't know where to begin. 1-6 in playoffs series. Did we get any value out of his structure screwing contract? Is he holding us hostage now with classy gestures and potpourri nonsense to retire here ? I'd say so.

Please explain to this confused no clue hockey fan why JT is worth taking back at any substantial amount of coin.

 

[notbias]

JT taking a hometown discount based on some erroneously reported Sharks offer 8 years ago is such a sham statement I don't know where to begin. 1-6 in playoffs series. Did we get any value out of his structure screwing contract? Is he holding us hostage now with classy gestures and potpourri nonsense to retire here ? I'd say so.

He took a discount according to insiders, you may not like it, but he did.

Now people want him to take a discount again.

You can whine about whether he was worth it, and I don't think many people will say he was, but just ignoring that he left money on the table to play here is weird.

Please explain to this confused no clue hockey fan why JT is worth taking back at any substantial amount of coin.

What is a substantial amount?

He has value... the argument is how much.

 

[ULF_55]

Please explain to this confused no clue hockey fan why JT is worth taking back at any substantial amount of coin.

You treat him like you would any other NHL UFA.

Just use plain logic, and stay away from the personal feelings.

Don't overstate assets nor liabilities of a player to make that decision.

Judge by fact, not irrational, emotional opinion.

 

[thewave]

JT taking a hometown discount based on some erroneously reported Sharks offer 8 years ago is such a sham statement I don't know where to begin. 1-6 in playoffs series. Did we get any value out of his structure screwing contract? Is he holding us hostage now with classy gestures and potpourri nonsense to retire here ? I'd say so.

Please explain to this confused no clue hockey fan why JT is worth taking back at any substantial amount of coin.

He isnt worth taking back unless he gives us a huge discount. Guy got overpaid 2-3m off the hop.

Leafs unfortunately havr been the stupidest guy in the room for a long time.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

You treat him like you would any other NHL UFA.

Just use plain logic, and stay away from the personal feelings.

Don't overstate assets nor liabilities of a player to make that decision.

Judge by fact, not irrational, emotional opinion.

So wouldn't you say the vitriol heaped on Marner is in this same category and his Captain taking just as much of a financial hit or status loss would be more reasonable?

 

[notbias]

You treat him like you would any other NHL UFA.

Just use plain logic, and stay away from the personal feelings.

Don't overstate assets nor liabilities of a player to make that decision.

Judge by fact, not irrational, emotional opinion.

No one wants these players to be treated like a regular UFA on this board.

If they did, they'd bring up regular season stats far more.

 

[ponder]

I’d use the Domi deal as a comparable, I see the two as basically equally effective at even strength, though JT is a bit better on the PP. Domi signed for 4x$3.75, maybe 4x$4 for JT?

If he demands >$5 mil, we should walk, he’s just not that good anymore.

 

[myleafs]

Tavares doesn't perform like an $11m player in the playoffs... no doubt.

But does he perform like a $4-5m player? With the Leafs, he's had 24 points in 37 playoff games.... I'll exclude the one he got kicked in the head of... a pace of .64 points per game.

The Panthers played 24 playoff games last year... at that puts Tavares pace at 15-16 points, with roughly half of them being goals. On Florida, he would have been 5th-6th in points, and 3rd-4th in goals. How much more do you want out of a guy if he's making $4m?

Furthermore, it may be worth considering that with the way the game tends to evolve in the playoffs, having a guy who does more around the net versus in open ice, may be beneficial.

So you use pace and assume he would keep up that pace the longer the playoffs go? A lot of made up mumbo jumbo. He has 3 pts in his last 12 playoff games and is slowing down in real time.

 

[ULF_55]

I’d use the Domi deal as a comparable, I see the two as basically equally effective at even strength, though JT is a bit better on the PP. Domi signed for 4x$3.75, maybe 4x$4 for JT?

If he demands >$5 mil, we should walk, he’s just not that good anymore.

It won't be a 35+ deal, so all the buy-out options remain in place.

 

[conFABulator]

He just took one, I hope he takes another though.



I don't disagree, but he has left $14 million on the table already.

I don't think he owes Toronto anything, and I don't think he will be remembered fondly unless they win something, so not sure it matters if he does all this stuff.

It the $14M the taxes? That's not resolved yet and that is not our problem. If we offer him $18M over six years, how much more is he certain to get elsewhere. Maybe he gets $15M over three years and then has to sign another one when he is 37? I don't think he has a lot of leverage and I don't think he wants to play the heavy leverage game

It would be nice, but it is still a business.

As I've said, he might take a discount, but he won't be taking much less than market rate, and Treliving is unlikely to ask him for a charity deal.

He still has a CRA bill that has to be covered.

You might be right but neither of those are facts, just your opinion. Don't underestimate the value of not moving him and his family from TO, or him being away from his family. Also, don't underestimate the he legacy he can create for him self by playing his final 13 years in TO and being the guy that made selfless moves to win us a cup (or to try to)

 

[ULF_55]

You might be right but neither of those are facts, just your opinion. Don't underestimate the value of not moving him and his family from TO, or him being away from his family. Also, don't underestimate the he legacy he can create for him self by playing his final 13 years in TO and being the guy that made selfless moves to win us a cup (or to try to)

When guessing at his next contract we're all just giving opinions.

I can see him giving a discount, but I'm sure his family would be fine moving for an extra $6mm over 3 years. It isn't like Toronto is the greatest NHL city to live in.

 

[ACC1224]

When guessing at his next contract we're all just giving opinions.

I can see him giving a discount, but I'm sure his family would be fine moving for an extra $6mm over 3 years. It isn't like Toronto is the greatest NHL city to live in.

Wonder what it costs someone at that level to relocate?

 

[notbias]

It the $14M the taxes? That's not resolved yet and that is not our problem. If we offer him $18M over six years, how much more is he certain to get elsewhere. Maybe he gets $15M over three years and then has to sign another one when he is 37? I don't think he has a lot of leverage and I don't think he wants to play the heavy leverage game

The $14 million was what was left on the table by not going to SJ and choosing Toronto... he gave us a discount.

I am not talking about a discount compared to his play, I am talking about a discount compared to his market value.

I don't expect him to keep taking discounts although it'd be nice.

 

[ULF_55]

Wonder what it costs someone at that level to relocate?

My guess the employer would cover expenses.

$100k?

Not even sure they wouldn't just store contents and keep whatever property they have.

Rent for 3 years.

 

[Racer88]

I am not sure anything in there is accurate...



What is a playoff stud?

We have a bunch of guys who outperform Bennett who are duds, so just curious about what makes Bennett a stud.

Was it all his success in Calgary when he was more important or was it his success in Florida where he is like the 10th most important guy?

0.65 PPG over the last three years for Bennett = stud
0.64 PPG over the last three years for Tavares = dud
1.04 PPG over the last three years for Matthews = dud
1.00 PPG over the last three years for Marner = dud
0.91 PPG over the last three years for Nylander = dud

54.7% GF% for Bennett = stud
48.5% GF% for Tavares = dud (actually agree)
56.8% GF% for Matthews = dud
62.2% GF% for Marner = dud
48.7% GF% for Nylander = dud (actually agree)

Seems logical.

For the record, I think Bennett is good, but probably not a playoff stud.

Bennett also had the highest offensive zone starts on his team... who is he shutting down? That is Barkov...

I’m thinking the difference is the price point and Bennet is 5 years younger

The $14 million was what was left on the table by not going to SJ and choosing Toronto... he gave us a discount.

I am not talking about a discount compared to his play, I am talking about a discount compared to his market value.

I don't expect him to keep taking discounts although it'd be nice.

The speculated 14 million……..let’s say it was even real, a discount only has meaning if it takes the player below his real value. 11 million was certainly not what he was worth. At the time maybe 7-8.
I realize you are not talking about his play relative to the discount but that has to be in the conversation

 

[notbias]

I’m thinking the difference is the price point and Bennet is 5 years younger

Both are past their prime, but sure, there is some value there.

My issue is more that someone like Bennett is called a playoff "stud" when he has closer stats to Tavares than the duds Marner and Matthews.

We just gave a 34 year old Tanev 4.5x6 and an NMC, Tavares is worth more than that for sure, and on a short term deal, much more in cap.

I hope he takes sub $5 million x 3 personally, but I just don't expect him to, he's given up money already.

The speculated 14 million……..let’s say it was even real, a discount only has meaning if it takes the player below his real value. 11 million was certainly not what he was worth. At the time maybe 7-8.
I realize you are not talking about his play relative to the discount but that has to be in the conversation

That is not how discounts work.

The market sets a value, not the fans, and taking less than that value is a discount.

Play relative to the discount doesn't need to be discussed because it is irrelevant and a different conversation.

No one is arguing Tavares has played at his cap hit.

It is annoying to hear something like "Player X took a discount". No, Player X took the amount they were offered because that was their worth, they just happened to improve during their contract.

The only players that have taken discounts that are public as far as I know are Tavares, Gio, and McDavid.

 

[Menzinger]

below market cap hit ?

so we overpay him but argue to the death it's a discount because another team was rumored to have offered more ?

Based on comparable id expect Tavares could get 5.5-7ish million on around a 3 year deal in free agency. I think his caphit in a Leafs extension will ultimately come below that level.

Whether or not it's a good deal for the Leafs or if they should even do that is another matter.

 

[sxvnert]

Gross. So the cost of giving up his captaincy was a retirement contract worth 5m+. Along with yet another guy with a permanent spot within the top six and PP1.

 

[Gabriel426]

TSN's Chris Johnston joined TSN 1050's First Up this morning to discuss all things Toronto and was asked who was more likely to sign a contract extension between the two players. Johnston knew it was a loaded question, but gave an astute response that could have major implications heading into the season opener and beyond.

Tavares will be way more palatable at, say, 3 years and $6M per season

That’s already an overpayment.

 

[Gabriel426]

I am not sure anything in there is accurate...



What is a playoff stud?

We have a bunch of guys who outperform Bennett who are duds, so just curious about what makes Bennett a stud.

Was it all his success in Calgary when he was more important or was it his success in Florida where he is like the 10th most important guy?

0.65 PPG over the last three years for Bennett = stud
0.64 PPG over the last three years for Tavares = dud
1.04 PPG over the last three years for Matthews = dud
1.00 PPG over the last three years for Marner = dud
0.91 PPG over the last three years for Nylander = dud

54.7% GF% for Bennett = stud
48.5% GF% for Tavares = dud (actually agree)
56.8% GF% for Matthews = dud
62.2% GF% for Marner = dud
48.7% GF% for Nylander = dud (actually agree)

Seems logical.

For the record, I think Bennett is good, but probably not a playoff stud.

Bennett also had the highest offensive zone starts on his team... who is he shutting down? That is Barkov...

1. Was I comparing Bennett to AM, MM and Willie? Maybe you should include McD, Mack and Drai stats too.
2. Bennett is a better player than JT at this point.
3. What had JT done in the playoffs for both Islanders and the Leafs?
4. JT is making more than twice what Bennett is making the past few years and yet Bennett done more than JT in the playoffs.

 

[ULF_55]

Gross. So the cost of giving up his captaincy was a retirement contract worth 5m+. Along with yet another guy with a permanent spot within the top six and PP1.

Forget Tavares!

What center do you get in free agency for $6mm * 3 years?
What center do you get in free agency for $5mm * 4 years?