Steven Stamkos, who's essentially a year ahead in all of this fun, just signed a 4 year deal at $8m per season.
Fair analysis but there's another factor beyond just pure stats: Stamkos captained the Bolts to 2 Stanley Cups and a final. Tavares has captained the Maple Leafs to exactly one playoff round victory.
The point being that I think Stamkos' rather sweet deal is at least in part an acknowledgement of his contribution to the Lightning's success. Tavares on the other hand ...
There really is no basis for keeping him here.
I've read the posts about how hard it is to get a replacement 2C but for me that's not nearly a strong enough rationale to re-sign a slow, 33 year-old center for another 3+ years who can't PK, doesn't really contribute on the PP anymore, whose sole "A" skill is winning faceoffs and was stripped of the captaincy as a result of his team's failures.
I wish I had the optimism that Brad taking the "C" away was a sign they intend to move on from him, but with this organization I'd be less surprised if they offer him a 4 (or more) year deal than let him walk. Far less surprised.