Tage Thompson's ceiling

[carter333167]

Neither of those teams really pulled the trigger on anything substantial until the deadline either. Yeah they fiddled a little here and there, but they didn’t sell the farm until they knew they were contenders. They let things build until the time was right, and didn’t reach and put their foundations in jeopardy until they knew for sure that it was worth the effort.

And I completely disagree with your assumption that the only way to improve is to draft top 10, there is just an overwhelming amount of evidence disproving that. When we get 4/5 years down the line and Schenn and Mike Hoffman are on other teams, we’re going to wonder why we suck so bad, but the only explanation will be that we traded 4 1st round picks in 2 years. Teams don’t get back into the playoffs that way. Boston didn’t do that, Tampa didn’t do that. No team who is trying to improve and succeeding is trading away their top talent. If it’s a Hall-for-Larsson deal, count me in, otherwise there’s higher-impact, lower cost moves we can make to keep improving in the meantime.

I think you have been spot on with your analysis. We need more patience. Trading significant futures for a guy like Hoffman on a two year deal will drive this team into a ditch.

Heck, I’ve even said that we literally must re-sign Schenn to make that a remotely palatable deal. It is looking VERY EXPENSIVE at the moment. In sum, trading away our first round picks is a horrible strategy if we actually hope to build a cup contender.

 

[carter333167]

I see big gap between Thomas and Kyrou. Thomas is untouchable, Kyrou is intriguing but not unavailable. If I get ROR or Getzlaf or someone of that quality, Kyrou can be part of package for sure. Goalies are so hard to predict, but would be real hard to deal Husso with our goaltending situation uncertain. I would basically only deal Husso if he was part of deal to bring back top starting goalie.

I don’t think there is a big gap at all between kyrou and Thomas. I actually think kyrou will be the more impactful forward. Just my opinion.

 

[Brian39]

The way I see it is you have to compare Thompson to players you are thinking of trading him for. Are the chances of him becoming better than a guy like Hoffman high? Probably not.

Just using him as an example. I understand if you want a RH shot or a different player for some reason.

But this thought needs to be at the forefront of any trade talk. I don’t understand the point of just being like “nooo we can’t trade the prospectz!!!!1” No, there’s actually a lot of players we’d be smart to trade them for.

I agree with this for the most part, but years of team control and cost have to be part of the equation. You can't win a Cup without depth and it's damn near impossible to have enough quality players under the cap unless you have young, cost controlled guys making large contributions. Unless his development explodes, Thompson's next deal will be modest. Say you're confident that he will not become as good as a trade target at any point in his career, but you're also convinced that he'll net you 45 points for a couple years at $2.5 mil, that is arguably as valuable a guy giving you 55-60 points at $5.5 mil.

Which is more valuable to the team depends on who else you have in your organization, but it is something that absolutely needs to be part of your valuation in a hard capped league. The team-friendly aspect of RFA years has to be a factor in trades.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I don’t think there is a big gap at all between kyrou and Thomas. I actually think kyrou will be the more impactful forward. Just my opinion.

Perhaps, but I think Kyrou has huge range of possibilities, anywhere from not becoming NHL regular to star winger, while Thomas it would be hard to conceive (barring injuries) him not becoming quality player. Whether he is 40 point 2-way center or stud #1 or where in between remains to be seen.

 

[kimzey59]

I don’t think there is a big gap at all between kyrou and Thomas. I actually think kyrou will be the more impactful forward. Just my opinion.

I disagree. I see them as totally different types of prospects.

With Thomas, his defensive game is going to land him in the NHL. He's about as "safe" a prospect as I've ever seen. The question is how his offense translates to the NHL. He could be limited to 3rd line duty, or he could be a Bergeron type (borderline #1 center). It just depends on how he does offensively and who he develop chemistry with.

With Kyrou, you're looking at a boom or bust type. His size and defensive limits might make him a liability in the NHL. On the other hand, his speed and offensive skills could make him a legit Star offensively. To be honest, I just don't see a lot of middle ground with Kyrou. He's either a high end scorer or he goes the Yakupov route. My hope is that he becomes the scorer we think he can be.

In terms of top end potential, they might be close(both have top line upside); but there is a vast difference in terms of what range of roles they can fill in the NHL.

 

[carter333167]

I really can’t believe that some believe kyrou won’t be an “NHL Regular.” At some point a while ago, someone questioned his defense and it somehow became rote gospel that he would never be responsible from a defensive stand point.

In any case, his offensive upside and tools don’t seem to be questioned anymore. I suppose that’s progress. The Blues need offense and he almost instantly would be the best and fastest skater on the team. I’m not especially worried about whether he currently can back check as well as Jaskin.

 

[bluesXwinXtheXcup]

Tage named to men's USA Hockey team:

2018 MWC | U.S. Roster

 

[Bluesnatic27]

I really can’t believe that some believe kyrou won’t be an “NHL Regular.” At some point a while ago, someone questioned his defense and it somehow became rote gospel that he would never be responsible from a defensive stand point.

In any case, his offensive upside and tools don’t seem to be questioned anymore. I suppose that’s progress. The Blues need offense and he almost instantly would be the best and fastest skater on the team. I’m not especially worried about whether he currently can back check as well as Jaskin.

Suggesting Kyrou won't become an NHL regular would be hard to believe. So hard to believe, in fact, that no one is saying that because of difficult it is to believe.

However, suggesting Kyrou has questionable defensive capabilities, upside, or skill is not ludicrous. To make it seem so is incredibly arrogant. It's not like Kyrou doesn't have any risk of panning out. He could easily falter because his shortcomings won't make up for his strengths. I quite like his potential but he's still a 20-year-old prospect who has yet to play any professional hockey.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Suggesting Kyrou won't become an NHL regular would be hard to believe. So hard to believe, in fact, that no one is saying that because of difficult it is to believe.

However, suggesting Kyrou has questionable defensive capabilities, upside, or skill is not ludicrous. To make it seem so is incredibly arrogant. It's not like Kyrou doesn't have any risk of panning out. He could easily falter because his shortcomings won't make up for his strengths. I quite like his potential but he's still a 20-year-old prospect who has yet to play any professional hockey.

You brought up Jaskin....Did he not TOTALLY dominate the Q? It is junior hockey. This is a whole new level of size, speed, and strength that he will have to adjust to. Does Doug Palazzari ring a bell? Ty Rattie? I hope he does become an NHL regular, but smallish guys either have it and adjust or they don't. Kimzey is dead on. I'd love to have Cliff Ronning or Doug Gilmour part II. Let's see what adjustments he makes. In seeing him up close, he would've had to get much bigger overnight to be what he is listed at. He is not very big at all. I think they are fudging his numbers some.

I watch Thomas and see Doug Weight. That has me pretty excited about what he could be. Oshie? I don't see it.

 

[carter333167]

Kyrou and Thomas are the same height and very similar in weight. I don’t consider either of them small players.

 

[67Blues]

Ronning was 5' 8" and Gilmour was 5' 10". Both Thomas and Kyrou are at 6' 0" . Considering the average NHL height last year was right at 6' 1" including defensemen, I'd say they are right there and not small. They'll gain muscle and weight over the next couple of years.

 

[carter333167]

Suggesting Kyrou won't become an NHL regular would be hard to believe. So hard to believe, in fact, that no one is saying that because of difficult it is to believe.

However, suggesting Kyrou has questionable defensive capabilities, upside, or skill is not ludicrous. To make it seem so is incredibly arrogant. It's not like Kyrou doesn't have any risk of panning out. He could easily falter because his shortcomings won't make up for his strengths. I quite like his potential but he's still a 20-year-old prospect who has yet to play any professional hockey.

Yet, someone did suggest just that.... that he might not even be an nhl regular.

I think there is an inconsistency when we complain all season about a desperate need to add offensive skill to our forward group and then we beat the drum of alleged defensive shortcomings of a prospect who just went 2 ppg in the OHL. Not every offensive talented forward is going to be Kopitar or Bergeron on the defensive side but this team without doubt needs more offensive skill. We have a lot of one way forwards right now... they are good on defense but not so great on offense.

Honestly, I don’t think we are saying different things. I acknowledge that there is risk with any prospect (Thomas or kyrou) but they do seem to exhibiting an offensive skill set not possessed by any but two or three of our current forwards.

I am saying that there has been a bit of kool aid drinking with Thomas versus unjustified skepticism regarding kyrou. They are both ranked as high end prospects at this point, and for good reasons: they have both shown elite performance. I like Thomas a tad more but not much more... and I recognize that kyrou brings a tool or two that Thomas doesn’t possess and that this team desperately needs. I like them both.

 

[Dbrownss]

I disagree. I see them as totally different types of prospects.

With Thomas, his defensive game is going to land him in the NHL. He's about as "safe" a prospect as I've ever seen. The question is how his offense translates to the NHL. He could be limited to 3rd line duty, or he could be a Bergeron type (borderline #1 center). It just depends on how he does offensively and who he develop chemistry with.

With Kyrou, you're looking at a boom or bust type. His size and defensive limits might make him a liability in the NHL. On the other hand, his speed and offensive skills could make him a legit Star offensively. To be honest, I just don't see a lot of middle ground with Kyrou. He's either a high end scorer or he goes the Yakupov route. My hope is that he becomes the scorer we think he can be.

In terms of top end potential, they might be close(both have top line upside); but there is a vast difference in terms of what range of roles they can fill in the NHL.

So Thomas wont be limited by their size but Kyrou will? Both are 6' tall and roughly the same weight and probably will be around 200-205.

As for the defense.... did you watch Kyrou in the WJC? His defense was fine. He's no Jaden Schwartz but he does backcheck and and his skating is a very noticable asset in the drone. From what I remember about Kyrou in the preseason, he played a responsible game, which means he understands he has to play 200ft, and that's all that's required.

Yakupov would still be an NHL'er even with his poor defense, it's his poor defense coupled with his poor offense. The guy has no hockey IQ, that's why he failed. Patrick Kane and our dear Tarasenko are examples of poor defensive forwards that make it because of their offense.

I see nothing about Kyrou that says he cant be a 3rd liner. Now if he sees himself as a top 6 or bust, well yes then he may be top end AHL fodder and nothing more

 

[Bluesnatic27]

You brought up Jaskin....Did he not TOTALLY dominate the Q? It is junior hockey. This is a whole new level of size, speed, and strength that he will have to adjust to. Does Doug Palazzari ring a bell? Ty Rattie? I hope he does become an NHL regular, but smallish guys either have it and adjust or they don't. Kimzey is dead on. I'd love to have Cliff Ronning or Doug Gilmour part II. Let's see what adjustments he makes. In seeing him up close, he would've had to get much bigger overnight to be what he is listed at. He is not very big at all. I think they are fudging his numbers some.

I watch Thomas and see Doug Weight. That has me pretty excited about what he could be. Oshie? I don't see it.

You brought up Jaskin....Did he not TOTALLY dominate the Q? It is junior hockey. This is a whole new level of size, speed, and strength that he will have to adjust to. Does Doug Palazzari ring a bell? Ty Rattie? I hope he does become an NHL regular, but smallish guys either have it and adjust or they don't. Kimzey is dead on. I'd love to have Cliff Ronning or Doug Gilmour part II. Let's see what adjustments he makes. In seeing him up close, he would've had to get much bigger overnight to be what he is listed at. He is not very big at all. I think they are fudging his numbers some.

I watch Thomas and see Doug Weight. That has me pretty excited about what he could be. Oshie? I don't see it.

I think you quoted the wrong guy.

And I seem to have double quoted you. This entire situation is a mess.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

Yet, someone did suggest just that.... that he might not even be an nhl regular.

Okay, then where was this? I saw Kimzey suggesting that his defensive game might limit his impact, which is a completely valid criticism. I also saw Blueston suggesting Kyrou's impact can be within a huge range of possibilities, from being a star to not being an NHL player. That's pretty consistent with what Kimzey said given he stated Kyrou is more of a boom-bust kind of player. It doesn't mean Kyrou won't play in the NHL. It doesn't mean he won't become good. It doesn't mean any of that. Suggesting there could be issues with his transition is not the same as saying that he will not become an NHL player. One statement is a balance of probabilities, the other is a definitive statement.

I think there is an inconsistency when we complain all season about a desperate need to add offensive skill to our forward group and then we beat the drum of alleged defensive shortcomings of a prospect who just went 2 ppg in the OHL. Not every offensive talented forward is going to be Kopitar or Bergeron on the defensive side but this team without doubt needs more offensive skill. We have a lot of one way forwards right now... they are good on defense but not so great on offense.

How is there an inconsistency when discussing a prospect who has yet to prove he's a better option than a guy like Berglund? A 2PPG pace in the OHL sure is swell, but doesn't mean anything if he can't play in the NHL due to his deficiencies. Does that mean he won't play in the NHL? No, not even close. He's a 20-year-old coming from junior hockey. Development takes time and is hardly ever linear. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kyrou not play in the NHL next year because that's natural given he's coming straight from junior hockey. Just as well, I wouldn't be surprised to see him earn a starting spot next year as well given he's a very talented player.

I am saying that there has been a bit of kool aid drinking with Thomas versus unjustified skepticism regarding kyrou. They are both ranked as high end prospects at this point, and for good reasons: they have both shown elite performance. I like Thomas a tad more but not much more... and I recognize that kyrou brings a tool or two that Thomas doesn’t possess and that this team desperately needs. I like them both.

You would be hard pressed to find anyone here who doesn't like them both. But just as you think there is some Kool-aid drinking against Kyrou, I find you're perpetuating a different Kool-aid that suggests he's a sure-fire thing. You consistently belittle the idea of obtaining Hoffman, which I have nothing against personally, but you have to acknowledge that the reason you go against it is because you believe Kyrou's impact will surpass Hoffman's impact. It's this very reason I have such a problem with the "wait and see" approach. It is tantamount to just hoping and praying that all of the Blues prospects will be better than a player the Blues could trade for. It's essentially assuming that Kyrou will be better than Hoffman, and that could be just as easily proven correct as it could be proven incorrect.

If I didn't make it clear enough, I like Kyrou and am completely content keeping him. But I acknowledge that there is a rick with not only his development, but also any potential trade that could involve him. If Dallas comes along wanting a major shake-up and says, "Hey! We will ship Seguin for Kyrou, Thompson, and this year's 1st." You can bet your behind I would ship Kyrou out no questions asked. The chance of Kyrou + Thompson + whoever Dallas drafts having a greater impact than Seguin is incredibly low, and it doesn't matter if Seguin has less team control. Sure, Seguin might be an extreme example and unfair given all of the trade reports that have been listed this past season. However, the chance of Kyrou having a greater impact than a player like Hoffman is already not great. Same for the like of Pacioretty. This was the point I tried making with my sarcastic post in the Tavares thread regarding Pietrangelo. The "wait and see" approach has its own significant risks that just make it tantamount to a "hope and pray" approach. You want to collect a metric crapload of prospects to help us in the future? Well you better hope and pray that those prospects pan out the way you want them. You also better hope that Pietrangelo, Schenn, Schwartz, Parayko and Tarasenko all want to re-sign while this is going on instead of just leaving to another team once their contracts run out.

 

[Majorityof1]

Yet, someone did suggest just that.... that he might not even be an nhl regular.

I think there is an inconsistency when we complain all season about a desperate need to add offensive skill to our forward group and then we beat the drum of alleged defensive shortcomings of a prospect who just went 2 ppg in the OHL. Not every offensive talented forward is going to be Kopitar or Bergeron on the defensive side but this team without doubt needs more offensive skill. We have a lot of one way forwards right now... they are good on defense but not so great on offense.

Honestly, I don’t think we are saying different things. I acknowledge that there is risk with any prospect (Thomas or kyrou) but they do seem to exhibiting an offensive skill set not possessed by any but two or three of our current forwards.

I am saying that there has been a bit of kool aid drinking with Thomas versus unjustified skepticism regarding kyrou. They are both ranked as high end prospects at this point, and for good reasons: they have both shown elite performance. I like Thomas a tad more but not much more... and I recognize that kyrou brings a tool or two that Thomas doesn’t possess and that this team desperately needs. I like them both.

Nobody is saying he needs Kopitar-level defense, just baseline NHL level. So what if he puts up 2 ppg in a single season in the OHL? The questions are what can he do in the NHL and how can you deploy him if he is a defensive liability. We can project, but we won't know for sure until we see it. If he can't find a way to compete in board battles and play defense to some degree in the NHL, a competing team won't play him regardless of his offensive upside. A great example of this is Sam Gagner. He is actually fairly similar to Kyrou, aside from Kyrou's skating which is loads better. But Gagner has tremendous hands, vision and passing. He is offensively great. He put up over 2 ppg in the OHL with 118 points in 53 games. He has averaged 46 points over 82 games in his NHL career. But he can't get consistent playing time because of his downsides, bad defense and can't win a board battle to save his life. He needs to be heavily sheltered 5v5 because he is atrocious without the puck. Sure he has carved out an NHL career, but its bouncing around the league. He has played on 5 teams in the last 5 years. Also he would probably never have broken into the league if he was drafted by a decent team. I can name a ton of guys who had good junior success, but didn't even carve out that much of a career. Here's a list of 10 of them:

10 Great Junior Players Who Failed In The NHL And 10 Bad Junior Players That Succeeded

So saying Kyrou is guaranteed based on 1 good season in juniors is a bit pre-mature. There is absolutely reason to get excited but there is also reason to temper those expectations a bit. Thomas isn't being lauded for his #s but because he plays a complete game that will translate well to the NHL.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I think Kyrou is our second best prospect among skaters, by more than a little bit, and I think he brings a healthy dose of several things this organization desperately needs. "Risky" or not, I think he's someone you need to hang onto to see how he develops unless you're getting value you can't turn down by moving him.

To me, Kyrou and a 1st for two years of Hoffman is not value you can't turn down. Not even close, IMO, though obviously some disagree.

 

[stl76]

Tage named to men's USA Hockey team:

2018 MWC | U.S. Roster

What do you think this is, a thread about Tage Thompson? Clearly this thread titled "Tage Thompson's ceiling" is about Thomas and Kyrou...

It'll be interesting to see what kind of role TT plays for team USA.

 

[Shwabeal]

What do you think this is, a thread about Tage Thompson? Clearly this thread titled "Tage Thompson's ceiling" is about Thomas and Kyrou...

It'll be interesting to see what kind of role TT plays for team USA.

Looks like he centered the 4th line today in an exhibition. Didn't show up on the scoresheet so can't say anything about his play as I was unable to watch.

 

[HighNote]

I view Thomas and Kyrou about the same. I'm more hyped about Kyrou, however, because of his speed and offensive skills, both things that this team needs.

In the end, I think both will become NHL regulars, but I think Kyrou will be in impact player sooner than Thomas based on team needs and age. But I do believe that Thomas will eventually surpass Kyrou later down the line.

 

[BangarangxRufio]

I view Thomas and Kyrou about the same. I'm more hyped about Kyrou, however, because of his speed and offensive skills, both things that this team needs.

In the end, I think both will become NHL regulars, but I think Kyrou will be in impact player sooner than Thomas based on team needs and age. But I do believe that Thomas will eventually surpass Kyrou later down the line.

Kyrou playing center as well now?

 

[Brian39]

I disagree. I see them as totally different types of prospects.

With Thomas, his defensive game is going to land him in the NHL. He's about as "safe" a prospect as I've ever seen. The question is how his offense translates to the NHL. He could be limited to 3rd line duty, or he could be a Bergeron type (borderline #1 center). It just depends on how he does offensively and who he develop chemistry with.

With Kyrou, you're looking at a boom or bust type. His size and defensive limits might make him a liability in the NHL. On the other hand, his speed and offensive skills could make him a legit Star offensively. To be honest, I just don't see a lot of middle ground with Kyrou. He's either a high end scorer or he goes the Yakupov route. My hope is that he becomes the scorer we think he can be.

In terms of top end potential, they might be close(both have top line upside); but there is a vast difference in terms of what range of roles they can fill in the NHL.

Bergeron has won 4 of the last 6 Selkes, was runner up the other two years, was a point per game player this season, has scored at a 62.5 point pace over his entire career, has arguably the best possession numbers in the league, is one of the best centers at the faceoff dot, has a Cup ring and is a two time Olympic gold medalist. What more does he have to do for you to consider him an actual #1 center?

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Kyrou playing center as well now?

To be fair, Berglund playing 2RW is almost as bad as Brodziak at 2C. Since scoring is the thing this team needs most, Kyrou's higher scoring potential can potentially make a bigger impact than Thomas's more complete game.

I personally think Thomas will be an impact player faster, but it is feasible for Kyrou to do so as well.

 

[HighNote]

Kyrou playing center as well now?

All things considered, not just position. Speed, offense, scoring off the rush, these are things that the Blues need right now. And RW is just as weak as C anyways. We need more offensive threats and I don't see Thomas capable of being that just yet. Maybe he is capable, but he's the kind of player I'd want to have focus on both offense and defense, where I think it's more beneficial for Kyrou to be let loose offensively assuming he has linemates that can cover him. We have plenty of defensive-minded forwards, I think it would be a nice change of pace if we had another winger that is offense-first like 91.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

Looks like he centered the 4th line today in an exhibition. Didn't show up on the scoresheet so can't say anything about his play as I was unable to watch.

I think it's great for Tage that he made that team. Hopefully it will help in his confidence and development at the NHL level. I really want to see him succeed. I like all the big 4 of forward prospects for the Blues and partially hope they all make the team, but Tage and Kostin are the two I'm most comfortable trading as well.

Tage has got an NHL level shot and a good offensive mind. He needs to improve his skating and defense and I think playing C at the World Championships might help with that. I see him as the Blues 3RW next season, with Thomas and Steen as his C and LW. (This is with the hope that Berglund and Sobotka are both somehow on another team).