I could see his absolute max being around 25 goals, ~50 points. I don’t think he’ll ever reach that and will probably be more of a 15/20/35 guy. If a team wants a forward prospect as part of a trade for a top 6 RW/C, I would prefer it be him over Kostin or Kyrou.
Tage Thompson's ceiling
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larueskee
Player/Member USA Hockey or affilates 1972-2006
Brian39
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I don't have any problem with Tage's deployment by Yeo this year. Injuries forced him into the NHL and this season should have been 100% about him learning the defensive side of the pro game. I would have liked for that to have been done in the AHL, but since he was forced into the NHL I'm happy the coaching staff still put him in roles to learn defense without getting his doors blown off. There is zero doubt in my mind that his production could have been better if he had been relied on in an offensive role and/or utilized with more skilled line mates. His stats would have looked better, but I think that would have further stunted his development. He's not skilled enough to be a one dimensional player in the NHL. He's not going to be the 70 point guy who can get away with being a defensive liability. If he's going to be anything more than a replacement NHL player, he needed to spend a year or two focusing on his play away from the puck.
Unless he takes a big step over the summer, I hope he plays in the AHL next year. His play away from the puck got better by the end of the year. I'd like to see him in the AHL where he can continue improving that defensive play against lesser competition where he can also produce offensively. I think that gives him the best chance of being a 2 way, 50+ point guy in the NHL.
Unless he takes a big step over the summer, I hope he plays in the AHL next year. His play away from the puck got better by the end of the year. I'd like to see him in the AHL where he can continue improving that defensive play against lesser competition where he can also produce offensively. I think that gives him the best chance of being a 2 way, 50+ point guy in the NHL.
Majorityof1
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This is a weird comparison. Jaskin is a good defensive player who plays a strong physical and possession game but has limited finishing abilty. Tage is a player who has finishing ability in spades, but struggles with everything else. So is he going to be equal to Jaskin in defense/physicality while maintaining his scoring touch, or is he going to regress to Jaskin level in scoring/touch while never improving his defense/physicality. Or is he going to regress in scoring while improving elsewhere?
Or are you just being reductive and saying "Jaskin sucks and Tage will too"?
Shwabeal
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Majorityof1
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Yeah, I should have just led with that and stopped, but wanted to give him some benefit of the doubt.
EastonBlues22
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I don't really have any problems with Thompson's development, either. He didn't exactly light the world on fire in his NHL debut, but I feel like even those who were most bullish on him shouldn't have been expecting that. It's not like he was drafted as a relatively finished product, or that he was already tearing up the AHL.
The NHL team had a need that he could fill, and they gave him a chance to fill it. They sheltered him and generally seemed like they worked with him, so it's not like they just threw him to the wolves. Seemed pretty reasonable to me, and if he was paying attention, he probably picked up a number of things that could help him be a better pro moving forward. There's also value in having firsthand knowledge of what it takes to play and succeed at the NHL level.
Anyway, I don't think half a season in the NHL is going to significantly stunt his growth even if the AHL is really the ideal place for him at this point. Maybe it even gives him a kick in the pants that helps propel him forward.
The NHL team had a need that he could fill, and they gave him a chance to fill it. They sheltered him and generally seemed like they worked with him, so it's not like they just threw him to the wolves. Seemed pretty reasonable to me, and if he was paying attention, he probably picked up a number of things that could help him be a better pro moving forward. There's also value in having firsthand knowledge of what it takes to play and succeed at the NHL level.
Anyway, I don't think half a season in the NHL is going to significantly stunt his growth even if the AHL is really the ideal place for him at this point. Maybe it even gives him a kick in the pants that helps propel him forward.
Reality Czech
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Not really sure I can agree with your post. Regarding Boston, when did they go through "years of suckiness?" They have only missed the playoffs twice in the past 11 years, and both of those years ('14-'15 and '15-16) they had 93 and 96 points. The last time the Bruins "sucked" was way back in 2007.
Regarding the Jets, this is only the 2nd time in 7 years since moving to Winnipeg that they have made the playoffs. Would fans be happier if the Blues had been horrible and missed the playoffs the past 5 years? Yeah, I get it. The Jets look great now. But their fans have waited a long time for that success. Do you think Blues fans could be so patient? We miss the playoffs once in 7 years by 1 point and seems like many Blues fans can't even accept that.
I think it’s hard to see the Bruins as anything other than “also-rans” for the last 3 years, which is a substantial amount of time especially considering the four years that preceded them. Maybe “years of suckiness” was a little hyperbolic, but they absolutely went through a lot of crap, dumping valuable parts of their team (Lucic, Hamilton) along the way, to get to where they are today. It wasn’t easy. But they were aggressive in building their farm system in those years (after firing Chia), and patient in letting those players develop into contributing members of their team.
And no, I’m not saying that we need to be cellar dwellers like Winnipeg either. But yes, absolutely Blues fans should be more patient. If they can’t deal with a set-back like this, it shouldn’t matter because the long-term health of the team will suffer if we kowtow to their shrieking. If we’re serious about building a solid team, and not just making panic moves to be aggressive in an imaginary window, then the Bruins set a solid example. We shouldn’t be afraid of following it.
I mean, it's not like Boston just sat back and did nothing but let their prospects develop. Let's not forget that, according to the rumors on here that seemed pretty credible, they almost traded for Shattenkirk. They went out and signed Backes. Now this year they added Rick Nash.
So yeah, let's be like Boston. They were still aggressive. Nobody is saying we should go out and trade all of our prospects. But could we trade a guy like Thompson (just as an example) to upgrade our team now while we still keep the others? Sure. I don't know why that would be looked at as a bad move.
We're not rebuilding. It's a re-tool. And part of that re-tool is we need to get a legit scorer to help out Tarasenko, Schwartz, Schenn, etc rather than just sit here and wait on maybes. Viewing all of our prospects as basically untouchable would be stupid.
So yeah, let's be like Boston. They were still aggressive. Nobody is saying we should go out and trade all of our prospects. But could we trade a guy like Thompson (just as an example) to upgrade our team now while we still keep the others? Sure. I don't know why that would be looked at as a bad move.
We're not rebuilding. It's a re-tool. And part of that re-tool is we need to get a legit scorer to help out Tarasenko, Schwartz, Schenn, etc rather than just sit here and wait on maybes. Viewing all of our prospects as basically untouchable would be stupid.
Bluesnatic27
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CaliforniaBlues310
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I’m more than okay moving him+WPG 1st+one of Barbashev/Sobotka/2nd/3rd for Jeff Carter. Fills either one of our top 2 needs, as he’s a RHS C/RW. He also wouldn’t take us out of the Tavares race, and he’d be a big add to our PP. He may be older, but he still has wheels and a great shot. His leadership for the kids and our current core would be huge too.
Running a top 9 of either of these would be beautiful.
Schwartz-Tavares-Schenn
Fabbri-Carter-Tarasenko
Steen-Thomas-Berglund
Fabbri-Tavares-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Carter
Steen-Thomas-Berglund
Running a top 9 of either of these would be beautiful.
Schwartz-Tavares-Schenn
Fabbri-Carter-Tarasenko
Steen-Thomas-Berglund
Fabbri-Tavares-Tarasenko
Schwartz-Schenn-Carter
Steen-Thomas-Berglund
More of a “don’t change horses mid-stream” mentality. We’ve already committed to this approach, we knew the waters were gonna get choppy, don’t freak out and trade two more firsts (counting Thompson) because we missed the playoffs by a point.
Bluesnatic27
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I have no problem letting the gathered prospects develop, I just have a problem with waiting for them as "plan A".
Almost all the teams that are considered playoff contenders at this moment aggressively went out to find players, or at least tried to, that can both help them now and in the future. They drafted well, sure, but they didn't sit there and let the world go by as they did. Boston was serious in trying to revamp their defense from day one. They collected three first rounders so as to trade up and get Noah Hanifin. The very next year they aggressively sought after Shattenkirk, and had Loui Eriksson wanted to sign here, he would be a Bruin. The Penguins traded their top prospect, at the time, to land Phil Kessel in hopes of providing more scoring depth. The Lightning were adamant about shoring up their depth last offseason and went to sign plenty of free agents like Girardi to do so. Then they traded Brett Howden, Libor Hajek, and their former first rounder Namestnikov to really shore up their defense. Then there are the Predators, who honestly built their forwards up through trades and signings as opposed to drafts. I mean, three of their top-6 forwards were acquired through trades (Ryan Johansen, Kyle Turris, and Filip Forsberg). The only real example I can think of teams just waiting patiently was the Winnipeg Jets, but they had to collect a lot of top-15 picks to do so. All of the other teams took a stance to draft well, yet also search for other external means for help.
Hell, even the Blues aren't abiding by just waiting. They were linked with Drouin at a time last year. They have been linked to Hoffman and Pacioretty at various points this season. It's been speculated ed nauseum that they wanted to use the Winnipeg 1st at the trade deadline. The Blues have done a great job accumulating assets through the draft, but those assets become useless if they don't help the team in some way, shape, or form. The Blues have the likes of Robert Thomas to look forward to, but what happens to Zach Sanford? He has to beat out Nolan Stevens, Erik Foley, Ivan Barbeshev, Adam Musil, Tage Thompson, and Sammy Blais to snag a bottom-9 spot. That's just trying to beat other prospects. Nevermind beating out other roster players, who all have much more experience, as well. (p.s. I wasn't trying to pick on Sanford in particular, just using him as an example)
The point I'm trying to make is that the Blues have a prospect pool 15 guys deep that can all reasonably make the NHL in their lifetimes. There are almost enough forward prospects to start a whole other team with. That's fantastic, don't get me wrong. But there is a point where the marginal benefit of keeping one more guy decreases to nill. I think the Blues are pretty close to that point honestly. The only real way the pool becomes better is by adding better talent to it, but that becomes increasingly difficult unless the Blues are drafting top-10. Adding more of the same isn't going to help. So if a talent that can help us now and in the future comes along in a trade, I don't see a reason to look away because the prospect pool can become 18 players deep instead of 16-17.
For the record, I'm not trying to suggest trading everything for the sake of making headlines. I'm not even saying that you in particular are suggesting the Blues avoid hypothetical trades that would have Tyler Seguin come to the Blues for Blais, Stevens, and month's supply of jalapeno poppers or something. I just think that there is such a thing as being too patient as well as too agressive, and I tried expressing it in the most laconic way possible... something I failed at by the look of this post.
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Tage is a center.
Was Yeo playing him in a defensive role so he can more easily accept that position next year? Or the next?
There's more responsibilities as a centerman. Much like Fabbri was used as a winger in his first year. At the start of camp, Robby was going to get a look at center.
Is he our 2nd line C of the future?
Was Yeo playing him in a defensive role so he can more easily accept that position next year? Or the next?
There's more responsibilities as a centerman. Much like Fabbri was used as a winger in his first year. At the start of camp, Robby was going to get a look at center.
Is he our 2nd line C of the future?
Excellent post, and I completely understand your point. I think the sticky point is that we can't agree on who is worth trading those prospects for. ROR? I'm completely down. Hoffman, Reinhart, Pacioretti or T. Johnson? Mmm... now I am hesitating. Maybe. I like Simmonds, but many here do not. Perhaps a prospect not named Thomas or Kyrou? Galchenyuk or Eberle? No freaking way! Long story short, we can't agree on a forward who i worth trading top prospects for.
That's true but also because right now it's all speculation. Once we get to June and get closer to the draft we will probably have a better idea of who is actually available and can start to target certain players.
EastonBlues22
Registered User
Thompson has never been a center. That wasn't his main position in college. The original experiment of trying him at center in the AHL lasted less than a month before he was moved back to the wing...a position that he played the rest of the year, save perhaps for a handful of games in the short stint where he was sent back down to the AHL. He hasn't played that position at all in the NHL, either. That transition feels more like a prayer than a plan at this point, if it ever had any serious legs at all.
Fabbri at least played center in the OHL, but he has consistently looked overwhelmed defending low in the defensive zone at the NHL level, and has said himself that he "wasn't comfortable" with the thought of playing the position yet. Maybe Fabbri gets there down the road, but I doubt the Blues are eager to throw him into a position that requires more physicality game in and game out given his recent injury history. Even if they do, they're going to have to live with the fact that he'll need to be heavily sheltered since he'll be a defensive liability until that aspect of his game improves...something that the Blues do not typically like to do with their centers. Bottom line there is that he doesn't look like someone the Blues can count on to fill the position at a high level anytime soon.
I see your point, I really do, but I think you’re still missing some crucial distinctions in there.
Yes, we have been involved with rumors, so have Tampa and Boston. The difference between us and them was that (A) they were on the upswing and we weren’t, and (B) they had the ammo and we don’t.
Tage is one of our big 4, and as much as I like Sanford, Foley, Blais and Stevens, I don’t think you can argue that any of them would fill the hole left by trading Tage. Boston was able to trade all of those guys for Rick Nash because they didn’t have to touch any of their top prospects, including Donato, DeBrusk, Heinen, Bjork, etc. Losing Spooner and Lindgren didn’t really matter because although they are legit players in of themselves, their internal replacements were/are either better, or soon will be. We don’t have that, not yet. Tampa is different because they got back a guy who would be a lot of teams’ #1D, plus a legit top-6 winger. That’s a rare haul I’m not confident we could replicate.
Neither of those teams really pulled the trigger on anything substantial until the deadline either. Yeah they fiddled a little here and there, but they didn’t sell the farm until they knew they were contenders. They let things build until the time was right, and didn’t reach and put their foundations in jeopardy until they knew for sure that it was worth the effort.
And I completely disagree with your assumption that the only way to improve is to draft top 10, there is just an overwhelming amount of evidence disproving that. When we get 4/5 years down the line and Schenn and Mike Hoffman are on other teams, we’re going to wonder why we suck so bad, but the only explanation will be that we traded 4 1st round picks in 2 years. Teams don’t get back into the playoffs that way. Boston didn’t do that, Tampa didn’t do that. No team who is trying to improve and succeeding is trading away their top talent. If it’s a Hall-for-Larsson deal, count me in, otherwise there’s higher-impact, lower cost moves we can make to keep improving in the meantime.
And yes, I agree that there is such a thing as holding onto guys for too long (e.g. Rattie), but most of these guys haven’t even hit 100 games of pro experience yet. Heck, a lot of them don’t even have 1 game yet! I think we all agree that we need to see improvement from Tage, but it’s not like we put him in the best position to succeed this season either. I believe we will eventually see Tage do in the NHL what he did in Traverse City last year. It took Anthony Mantha awhile to get there too, but I don’t think Detroit is sad about hanging onto him now. Just hold your horses, is all I’m saying. We’ve got time.
I'm not saying Tage is Mantha or will be him in a couple years, but that's an interesting comparison. Both big guys with great hands and a wicked shot. Mantha has filled out to 225 too.
There is difference for cup contender then trying to be. Blues have linked for good players, but what happened. Blues have traded good assests away like Oshie and Shattenkirk. What we've left from those deals? Sandford?
Eh, Armstrong doesn't have tools to make last push for this team like those other real Stanley Cup contenders have.
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Majorityof1
Registered User
But in those 2 years, we still drafted Kostin and Thomas in the first, as well as got two young players in Foley and Sanford who the Blues like going forward. We were trading expiring assets for firsts + prospects, which freed us up to use those firsts to fill gaps with players with term. We would not have moved 2 firsts for Schenn if we did not have one coming back for Reaves and one from the Shattenkirk trade. We do not move a first for a winger this year if we don't have one from Stastny. Let's pretend we do move Tage and a first for Hoffman, and then look at the sum total of the trades.
1) Shattenkirk for 1st + Sanford
2) Reaves + 2nd for 1st
3) 2 1sts for Schenn + cap space(Lehtera dump)
4) Stastny for Foley + 1st
5) Hypothetical: Thompson + 1st for Hoffman
We give up 3 expiring assets (Shattenkirk, Stastny and Reaves), 3 first round picks, 1 first round equivalent prospect and a 2nd. In return we receive Schenn, Hoffman, cap space, 2 non-1st round prospects and 3 first round picks. Let's say the firsts cancel (some were higher picks than others, but for simplicity), and let's ignore the expiring assets and vets. We look only toward futures. We gave up a 2nd and Thompson for Foley and Sanford. That is what we swapped in terms of futures (as well as moving a few spots difference between different picks on some of the picks). Playing the zero sum game, we give up 2 future pieces for 2 other future pieces. Granted Thompson is worth more than Sanford (although you are high on Zacky), but its still not giving away 4 first round picks to end up with nothing in a few years like you paint it. Getting 2 players with term at positions of need, while not dipping too far into the futures basket is exactly what contending teams should do.
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