Tage Thompson's ceiling

[BangarangxRufio]

All things considered, not just position. Speed, offense, scoring off the rush, these are things that the Blues need right now. And RW is just as weak as C anyways. We need more offensive threats and I don't see Thomas capable of being that just yet. Maybe he is capable, but he's the kind of player I'd want to have focus on both offense and defense, where I think it's more beneficial for Kyrou to be let loose offensively assuming he has linemates that can cover him. We have plenty of defensive-minded forwards, I think it would be a nice change of pace if we had another winger that is offense-first like 91.

I see Thomas making an immediate impact on this team next season. Kyrou could be dynamic, but when have the let a prospect go free and play without fear of being sent down? I think they are going pressure him into playing conservatively and really muffling his talents until he shows consistency. Which I hate BTW.

 

[The Note]

I see Thomas making an immediate impact on this team next season. Kyrou could be dynamic, but when have the let a prospect go free and play without fear of being sent down? I think they are going pressure him into playing conservatively and really muffling his talents until he shows consistency. Which I hate BTW.

I mean they didn’t muffle Parayko, Fabbri, or Dunn. Maybe a healthy scratch here or there but that’s pretty normal for a young player. If by “muffle” in Kyrou’s case you mean play baseline-NHL defense, then yeah, they’re going to require that of him.

This isn’t all directed at you but there’s this narrative around here the Blues don’t give young players a fair shake or won’t play them and it’s just not the case in reality.

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

I see Thomas making an immediate impact on this team next season. Kyrou could be dynamic, but when have the let a prospect go free and play without fear of being sent down? I think they are going pressure him into playing conservatively and really muffling his talents until he shows consistency. Which I hate BTW.

@BangarangxRufio Totally with you on this. I have no clue why this team fears letting skilled players play their game when they are young. "OMG, they may have a defensive lapse that allows the other team to score." Guess what, two of the perceived better defensive players on this team last season were -5 and -11. I mean, how many times have we seen veterans make egregious errors, including our #1 D. I understand that they can't be putrid, but holy crap, stop making them concentrate so hard on that part of the game that the rest suffers.

@The Note I do think some of the coaches have muffled some of the offense of players. Blues hockey, especially recently, has been more defensively minded from the coach on down. Look at how other teams play, the speed, tenacity, and movement. They don't focus solely on checking or defensive end. They play with pace. They stick check and have good positioning. But when they transfer to offense, they push the pace farther. They're first instinct isn't to dump and chase. They let their forward create offense. They engage their defense. I definitely didn't see Hitchcock do that, and Yeo had a system close to that in Minnesota, but so far, outside of the 2nd half of last season and the first half of this one, there hasn't been that some mentality.

I do agree with you that guys like Parayko and Fabbri weren't muffled, but how often have we seen a younger player benched when he makes a defensive lapse, but when the same lapse happens to a veteran, he's back out there the next shift. How often have we seen a younger offensively minded player maybe hesitate in trying to create offense, possibly wondering that if he screws it up, he might be on the bench or sat the next game.

I don't know that coaches are intentionally doing it, because it could just be the systems, but I tend to agree that St. Louis Blues hockey style seems to be checking and defense. I mean, look at Tarasenko and the changes he's gone through since he came here. He was much more free wheeling when he first arrived than now. Why did that change?

I maybe wrong, but watching the Blues and watching other teams during the regular season, I could see why other fans thought this team played a boring brand of hockey, but with the stable of players and prospects this team has, it could change to a very exciting brand of hockey if the coaches will adjust their systems accordingly. Arguably, this is why I want to see a guy like Muller as the next head coach rather than another Yeo, Hitch, or Berube (only guessing on him. I don't know what his particular style is).

 

[Brian39]

I see Thomas making an immediate impact on this team next season. Kyrou could be dynamic, but when have the let a prospect go free and play without fear of being sent down? I think they are going pressure him into playing conservatively and really muffling his talents until he shows consistency. Which I hate BTW.

In the last 3 years, we have seen Fabbri, Dunn, Parayko, and Ed all given consistent playing time without fear of being sent down even though 2 of those guys had to learn a significant amount of defensive play on the fly in order to be adequate defensive players at the NHL level. We have not given the same leeway to Rattie, Thompson, or arguably Barby (although there is a good argument to be made that he was given a fairly lengthy opportunity and failed). I would vehemently argue that outside of Fabbri and Dunn, none of the rookies we've brought up have had anything close to the offensive skill set to outweigh poor defense. Say what you will about guys like Bergie making the 'same mistakes,' but statistically they are doing it significantly less and are performing better offensively.

You can't just throw 3 prospects into your top 9 every year and keep rolling them out regardless of their defensive ability. But despite this narrative, the Blues have consistently shown that they will continue playing a defensively irresponsible guy if his offensive talent justifies it. If Kyrou demonstrates that his offense translates to the NHL on par with Fabbri's, he'll get sheltered time and be taught defense at the NHL level. If his offense doesn't immediately translate at the NHL level, then he will develop in the AHL.

 

[The Note]

@BangarangxRufio Totally with you on this. I have no clue why this team fears letting skilled players play their game when they are young. "OMG, they may have a defensive lapse that allows the other team to score." Guess what, two of the perceived better defensive players on this team last season were -5 and -11. I mean, how many times have we seen veterans make egregious errors, including our #1 D. I understand that they can't be putrid, but holy crap, stop making them concentrate so hard on that part of the game that the rest suffers.

@The Note I do think some of the coaches have muffled some of the offense of players. Blues hockey, especially recently, has been more defensively minded from the coach on down. Look at how other teams play, the speed, tenacity, and movement. They don't focus solely on checking or defensive end. They play with pace. They stick check and have good positioning. But when they transfer to offense, they push the pace farther. They're first instinct isn't to dump and chase. They let their forward create offense. They engage their defense. I definitely didn't see Hitchcock do that, and Yeo had a system close to that in Minnesota, but so far, outside of the 2nd half of last season and the first half of this one, there hasn't been that some mentality.

I do agree with you that guys like Parayko and Fabbri weren't muffled, but how often have we seen a younger player benched when he makes a defensive lapse, but when the same lapse happens to a veteran, he's back out there the next shift. How often have we seen a younger offensively minded player maybe hesitate in trying to create offense, possibly wondering that if he screws it up, he might be on the bench or sat the next game.

I don't know that coaches are intentionally doing it, because it could just be the systems, but I tend to agree that St. Louis Blues hockey style seems to be checking and defense. I mean, look at Tarasenko and the changes he's gone through since he came here. He was much more free wheeling when he first arrived than now. Why did that change?

I maybe wrong, but watching the Blues and watching other teams during the regular season, I could see why other fans thought this team played a boring brand of hockey, but with the stable of players and prospects this team has, it could change to a very exciting brand of hockey if the coaches will adjust their systems accordingly. Arguably, this is why I want to see a guy like Muller as the next head coach rather than another Yeo, Hitch, or Berube (only guessing on him. I don't know what his particular style is).

What you’re mostly describing here is an overall problem with the system the Blues play in general. I don’t know what happened but when the Blues were at their best last year (and the past couple years) is when the defense is active and jumping into the rush, while also not backing all the way into the D zone. The whole team is able to play with more pace and get into transition that way. And with Parayko, Dunn and Petro back there, there’s no reason not to have an “aggressive” defense. I also think as the season and injuries mounted, the lack of talent in the forward core exasperated issues and led to a much more “vanilla” approach. But Yeo’s system of play isn’t what my post was about.

Young players in the NHL by and large have to be able to at least play passable defense. This isn’t a Blues only mandate. If you looked at the Hawks board early in the season they were freaking out because DeBrincat was stapled to the third line despite being electric offensively. Q wasn’t going to have a liability out there at top 6 minutes. Barzal got benched for lax play. Young players get benched when they blow an assignment because it’s the easiest way to send a message and not let bad habits form. Additionally, let’s not make it seem like every time a young guy makes a mistake they are done for the game. Blais made a horrific play that led to a goal and was right back out there. For as much as you harp on Berglund, he was benched for a game this year! Veterans like Steen, Berglund, etc. have more rope. They’ve proven they can play at a high level in the NHL.

Again, a small group of people here make it seem like the Blues are this archaic franchise that hasn’t developed a player in 5 years. Fabbri, Parayko, Edmundson, Jaskin, Barbashev, Thompson, Blais, Schmaltz have all had opportunities in very recent memories. Some of them can’t stay healthy. Some ran with the opportunity. Others just haven’t looked very good for long stretches. But that’s not a group that hasn’t had their fair shake. Thomas and Kyrou are going to have every opportunity to make the team next season from the sounds of it. So again, there will be opportunity.

This sounds harsher than I really intended. I respect the way you articulate and present your opinion. I just think we have fundamentally different views on things, which is fine. It’s the reason the forum exists.

 

[DatDude44]

Thompson to me being a 6'5 beanpole who got some legit NHL experience as a 20 y.o. screams breakout around 22-23 years old. We gotta give him time to develop both mentally and physically. Finding a 6'5 fwd with the scoring ability and hands of thompson is extremely rare. If he can continue to improve his footwork and atleast be somewhat adequate defensively. I see no reason he can't be a 30 goal scorer in this league. He definitely had spurts this year where he was a dog on the hounding pucks and making plays. Just needs to keep playing (AHL or NHL) and keep growing. He's not gonna be a superstar but he can be a very good player for us IMO

 

[wannabebluesplayer]

What you’re mostly describing here is an overall problem with the system the Blues play in general. I don’t know what happened but when the Blues were at their best last year (and the past couple years) is when the defense is active and jumping into the rush, while also not backing all the way into the D zone. The whole team is able to play with more pace and get into transition that way. And with Parayko, Dunn and Petro back there, there’s no reason not to have an “aggressive” defense. I also think as the season and injuries mounted, the lack of talent in the forward core exasperated issues and led to a much more “vanilla” approach. But Yeo’s system of play isn’t what my post was about.

Young players in the NHL by and large have to be able to at least play passable defense. This isn’t a Blues only mandate. If you looked at the Hawks board early in the season they were freaking out because DeBrincat was stapled to the third line despite being electric offensively. Q wasn’t going to have a liability out there at top 6 minutes. Barzal got benched for lax play. Young players get benched when they blow an assignment because it’s the easiest way to send a message and not let bad habits form. Additionally, let’s not make it seem like every time a young guy makes a mistake they are done for the game. Blais made a horrific play that led to a goal and was right back out there. For as much as you harp on Berglund, he was benched for a game this year! Veterans like Steen, Berglund, etc. have more rope. They’ve proven they can play at a high level in the NHL.

Again, a small group of people here make it seem like the Blues are this archaic franchise that hasn’t developed a player in 5 years. Fabbri, Parayko, Edmundson, Jaskin, Barbashev, Thompson, Blais, Schmaltz have all had opportunities in very recent memories. Some of them can’t stay healthy. Some ran with the opportunity. Others just haven’t looked very good for long stretches. But that’s not a group that hasn’t had their fair shake. Thomas and Kyrou are going to have every opportunity to make the team next season from the sounds of it.

The injuries causing a "vanilla" offense is spot on and I do agree with you. I understand younger players needing to play passable defense, but define passable? You site DeBrincat and Barzal. Barzal will win the Calder and played amazing and was sat for lax play. DeBrincat played very well for the Hawks and was a big reason they were in some games, and still, again, sat for lax play. Where did those teams end up? Who were the veterans on their teams leading the way? Maybe it wasn't so much the younger player as much as it was the coach putting them in a position to succeed or the veterans around them not providing the on-ice leadership and example that they needed. I mean, Thompson seemed like a different player when he was out there with Schenn and Schwartz or Stastny. I know NHL teams need young players to understand their positioning and how to pick up their man, but my argument is that the Blues value defense so much that they pressure their young players to focus in on that portion of the game and it sometimes stymies their offensive capabilities. Of all the young players you mentioned for the Blues, Fabbri, Parayko, Thompson, and Schmaltz, to a degree, are the only truly offensively gifted players. Fabbri has been hurt but his rookie year, he was like another Schwartz, playing with Stastny and Brouwer almost the whole time. That's two good role models for him on both sides of the puck. Parayko has had Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester (more on the defensive side), and Shattenkirk (more on the offensive side) to mentor him, and again, he was put with a good complimentary piece in Edmundson his first season. Thompson's first linemates were Sundqvist and Paajarvi. Solid defensively but basically blackholes on offense. If Fabbri doesn't get hurt, who's to say where he'd be at this point. Parayko honestly looks like he's taken a step back on the offensive side, and I debate whether that's from coaching or his own doing. He's been asked to shoulder a heavier load defensively than he was when he first arrived and I wonder if he's become gun shy on the offensive side because of that.

All I'm saying is, as a fan of this team, it just feels like, at least since Andy Murray, that the Blues favor veterans and two-way forwards more so than letting a truly gifted young offensive player do what they do best and let the defensive part come to them, living with some of the mistakes.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

The injuries causing a "vanilla" offense is spot on and I do agree with you. I understand younger players needing to play passable defense, but define passable? You site DeBrincat and Barzal. Barzal will win the Calder and played amazing and was sat for lax play. DeBrincat played very well for the Hawks and was a big reason they were in some games, and still, again, sat for lax play. Where did those teams end up? Who were the veterans on their teams leading the way? Maybe it wasn't so much the younger player as much as it was the coach putting them in a position to succeed or the veterans around them not providing the on-ice leadership and example that they needed. I mean, Thompson seemed like a different player when he was out there with Schenn and Schwartz or Stastny. I know NHL teams need young players to understand their positioning and how to pick up their man, but my argument is that the Blues value defense so much that they pressure their young players to focus in on that portion of the game and it sometimes stymies their offensive capabilities. Of all the young players you mentioned for the Blues, Fabbri, Parayko, Thompson, and Schmaltz, to a degree, are the only truly offensively gifted players. Fabbri has been hurt but his rookie year, he was like another Schwartz, playing with Stastny and Brouwer almost the whole time. That's two good role models for him on both sides of the puck. Parayko has had Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester (more on the defensive side), and Shattenkirk (more on the offensive side) to mentor him, and again, he was put with a good complimentary piece in Edmundson his first season. Thompson's first linemates were Sundqvist and Paajarvi. Solid defensively but basically blackholes on offense. If Fabbri doesn't get hurt, who's to say where he'd be at this point. Parayko honestly looks like he's taken a step back on the offensive side, and I debate whether that's from coaching or his own doing. He's been asked to shoulder a heavier load defensively than he was when he first arrived and I wonder if he's become gun shy on the offensive side because of that.

All I'm saying is, as a fan of this team, it just feels like, at least since Andy Murray, that the Blues favor veterans and two-way forwards more so than letting a truly gifted young offensive player do what they do best and let the defensive part come to them, living with some of the mistakes.

Ok maybe, but who are you talking about? Rattie? Jaskin? Before Fabbri, those are really the only two forwards we’ve brought along post-Schwartz/Tarasenko. The other guys haven’t had the opportunity yet because they’re teenagers.

 

[PerryTurnbullfan]

Thompson to me being a 6'5 beanpole who got some legit NHL experience as a 20 y.o. screams breakout around 22-23 years old. We gotta give him time to develop both mentally and physically. Finding a 6'5 fwd with the scoring ability and hands of thompson is extremely rare. If he can continue to improve his footwork and atleast be somewhat adequate defensively. I see no reason he can't be a 30 goal scorer in this league. He definitely had spurts this year where he was a dog on the hounding pucks and making plays. Just needs to keep playing (AHL or NHL) and keep growing. He's not gonna be a superstar but he can be a very good player for us IMO

The Blues need to go back and watch some tape on the kid in college. I don't think they understand what they are missing in utilizing his greatest talent. The kid can shoot a one timer like Shanahan could. Get the kid in position to shoot and get a couple folks to dish him the puck. He will ring up 30 in a hurry, if they do that. Making him a north-south puck chasing Dimitri Jaskin look alike isn't going to be using him effectively at all. I wouldn't be afraid to put him on the other point on the power play. He is powerful and accurate.

 

[TruBlu]

Thompson to me being a 6'5 beanpole who got some legit NHL experience as a 20 y.o. screams breakout around 22-23 years old. We gotta give him time to develop both mentally and physically. Finding a 6'5 fwd with the scoring ability and hands of thompson is extremely rare. If he can continue to improve his footwork and atleast be somewhat adequate defensively. I see no reason he can't be a 30 goal scorer in this league. He definitely had spurts this year where he was a dog on the hounding pucks and making plays. Just needs to keep playing (AHL or NHL) and keep growing. He's not gonna be a superstar but he can be a very good player for us IMO

I couldn't find it to post, but that sequence where he unloaded three shots in a row was just awesome. It was nice this season to have someone with a shooter's mentality, outside of tank. That is going to translate to points soon. It will just take time. Many people forget he's still a kid.

 

[DatDude44]

The Blues need to go back and watch some tape on the kid in college. I don't think they understand what they are missing in utilizing his greatest talent. The kid can shoot a one timer like Shanahan could. Get the kid in position to shoot and get a couple folks to dish him the puck. He will ring up 30 in a hurry, if they do that. Making him a north-south puck chasing Dimitri Jaskin look alike isn't going to be using him effectively at all. I wouldn't be afraid to put him on the other point on the power play. He is powerful and accurate.

100% agree. Though i think the one time he ripped 3 straight one timers 15 feet over the net is why they never put him there lmao. our 2nd PP could have tage at the left circle, petro/parayko up top, fabbri as the bumper for quick one-t's and high tips, steen in front, Robert thomas on the right flank looking to hit tage/ petro/parayko for one-t's.

 

[Brian39]

The Blues need to go back and watch some tape on the kid in college. I don't think they understand what they are missing in utilizing his greatest talent. The kid can shoot a one timer like Shanahan could. Get the kid in position to shoot and get a couple folks to dish him the puck. He will ring up 30 in a hurry, if they do that. Making him a north-south puck chasing Dimitri Jaskin look alike isn't going to be using him effectively at all. I wouldn't be afraid to put him on the other point on the power play. He is powerful and accurate.

He has yet to demonstrate that accuracy with any sort of consistency at the NHL level. That will come, but the reduced time/space in the offensive zone at the NHL level caused him to rush his shots and miss high/wide way more than at lower levels. I'm not concerned about him tweaking his shot/game to adjust in the long run, but he had plenty of chances like you are describing and failed to execute almost every time.

There is little doubt in my mind that he will be a 30 goal scorer in his career. But if he doesn't round out his game defensively and learn how to better utilize his line mates, he's going to be a 25-30 goal, 15-20 assist guy who is a deep minus every year. He has the potential to be so much more than that and having him focus on the weak aspects of his game at 20 years old isn't going to damage his offensive ability.

 

[EastonBlues22]

He has yet to demonstrate that accuracy with any sort of consistency at the NHL level. That will come, but the reduced time/space in the offensive zone at the NHL level caused him to rush his shots and miss high/wide way more than at lower levels. I'm not concerned about him tweaking his shot/game to adjust in the long run, but he had plenty of chances like you are describing and failed to execute almost every time.

There is little doubt in my mind that he will be a 30 goal scorer in his career. But if he doesn't round out his game defensively and learn how to better utilize his line mates, he's going to be a 25-30 goal, 15-20 assist guy who is a deep minus every year. He has the potential to be so much more than that and having him focus on the weak aspects of his game at 20 years old isn't going to damage his offensive ability.

That surprises me.

You're probably talking a realistic minimum of 180 shots (shooting percentage of 16.7% to get 30 goals), and more reasonably 200+ (shooting percentage of 15% or less required), to have a realistic shot at that number...and that's all assuming a shooting percentage well above the NHL forward average of 10.8% over the last decade or so.

Those are not common shot benchmarks to hit. Only 68 forwards managed 200+ shots this year (99 managed 180+). Last year it was 51 and 77 forwards, respectively. Schwartz has averaged 178 shots per 82 games for his career, to give some further context.

It's certainly possible that he has a shooting percentage that spikes that high a couple of years in his career, but what makes you think he's going to produce the sort of shot volume needed to hit that plateau?

 

[Stealth JD]

I'd say there should be a tremendous amount of doubt around him ever hitting 30 goals in a single NHL season. He absolutely has the skills to do it, but he's certainly got a long way to go before getting there...if he ever can. I'd put 30 goals as his absolutely peak/career-year that might happen once. Perron's never done it. Schwartz has never done it. Not Berglund nor Stempniak. In fact, the only forwards the Blues have drafted in the past 30 years that have ever had a single 30-goal campaign are Brind'Amour (5 times in his 20-year HOF career, during a higher-scoring era), Backes (twice), Oshie (once) and Tarasenko (4 times).

Does Tage have that kind of upside? Maybe. I'd be really surprised though.

 

[MissouriMook]

There were 32 players who scored 30 or more goals this past regular season. One of them was Tarasenko. I'm not sure it is realistic to expect Tage to join that class, barring a significant surge in his development.

It is rare for one team to have more than one 30 goal scorer anymore. What you really need is one big gun and 5-6 guys that can get you 20-29 consistently, and get some goals poured in form the back end. I think we've got the big gun and the D covered, now we just need to establish more of those 20-29 guys to go along with Schwartz and Schenn.

 

[67Blues]

If Tage becomes a perennial 50-55pt guy, most people here would be pretty happy.

 

[Brian39]

That surprises me.

You're probably talking a realistic minimum of 180 shots (shooting percentage of 16.7% to get 30 goals), and more reasonably 200+ (shooting percentage of 15% or less required), to have a realistic shot at that number...and that's all assuming a shooting percentage well above the NHL forward average of 10.8% over the last decade or so.

Those are not common shot benchmarks to hit. Only 68 forwards managed 200+ shots this year (99 managed 180+). Last year it was 51 and 77 forwards, respectively. Schwartz has averaged 178 shots per 82 games for his career, to give some further context.

It's certainly possible that he has a shooting percentage that spikes that high a couple of years in his career, but what makes you think he's going to produce the sort of shot volume needed to hit that plateau?

My post wasn't crystal clear, but what I meant to say is that there is little doubt in my mind he'll do it at some point in his career, not on a consistent basis. I think he'll generally hover around that 25 goal mark, but hit 30 once (maybe 2 or 3 times if he hits his ceiling). I'm also not confident that it will be here. If he doesn't develop other tools, I could see him playing for 4 or 5 different NHL teams who value the offense, try to fix the rest; fail and let him walk in free agency.

I absolutely think he'll wind up being a bit of a volume shooter in the NHL. Not at the elite level, but I think he will have a shoot first mentality, especially once he has more experience and is comfortable with NHL speed. He missed the net a lot and had a lot of shots blocked. He only got 55 shots, but he had 113 total attempts in his 41 games played. That number alone isn't all that impressive, but it is pretty good when you factor in his ice time. He was 2nd on the Blues in shot attempts per 60 minutes. Granted, he was barely 2nd and miles behind Tarasenko, but that's not bad at all for a 20 year old who largely played with lower skilled guys, had limited PP time and was clearly tasked with working on his defensive game. I expect his ability to get pucks on net to improve (it was 2nd worst on the team among forwards with more than 20 games played) and I expect him to get more PP time and even strength time as he develops. I don't think it is unreasonable to extrapolate his rookie 110 shot pace to increase by 75-100 once he is in his prime, getting pucks on net at an average rate, getting more offense-friendly zone starts and getting legitimate middle 6 ice time with legitimate 2nd PP unit time.

His shot is good enough that he'll be put in position to use it more once he's developed than he did this year and I expect his shot totals to climb as that happens. I realize that per 60 stats don't extrapolate linearly and I'm not trying to suggest that more ice time will equal way more shots. But I think in combination with his development and the ice time I expect him to receive in his mid 20s, it is a reasonable projection.

 

[BlueDream]

I'd say there should be a tremendous amount of doubt around him ever hitting 30 goals in a single NHL season. He absolutely has the skills to do it, but he's certainly got a long way to go before getting there...if he ever can. I'd put 30 goals as his absolutely peak/career-year that might happen once. Perron's never done it. Schwartz has never done it. Not Berglund nor Stempniak. In fact, the only forwards the Blues have drafted in the past 30 years that have ever had a single 30-goal campaign are Brind'Amour (5 times in his 20-year HOF career, during a higher-scoring era), Backes (twice), Oshie (once) and Tarasenko (4 times).

Does Tage have that kind of upside? Maybe. I'd be really surprised though.

I'm not sure what Perron, Berglund and Stempniak really have to do with this. Just because they were drafted by the same team has nothing to do with Tage Thompson's chances of hitting 30 goals...

There were 32 players who scored 30 or more goals this past regular season. One of them was Tarasenko. I'm not sure it is realistic to expect Tage to join that class, barring a significant surge in his development.

It is rare for one team to have more than one 30 goal scorer anymore. What you really need is one big gun and 5-6 guys that can get you 20-29 consistently, and get some goals poured in form the back end. I think we've got the big gun and the D covered, now we just need to establish more of those 20-29 guys to go along with Schwartz and Schenn.

But look at who some of those guys were that topped 30. Did anyone expect Jason Zucker, William Karlsson and Sean Couturier to be in that group this season? Or Anders Lee to hit 40? Are any of those players actually better than Tarasenko? Nazem Kadri, Brendan Gallagher, Vincent Trochek... these guys are good players but they're not really superstars.

The point is, there are always surprise players that do it. Nobody really expected Brad Marchand to breakout like he has the past couple years either.

Happens every year. Cam Atkinson scored 35 in 2017. Patrick Eaves scored 32. Oshie, Viktor Arvidsson, Jonathan Marchessault did it...

There's a plethora of guys that when they were Tage Thompson's age (20), people would have said "they are going to score 30 one year? Yeah right."

Thompson could absolutely do it, he has a good shot. Who knows, but it wouldn't be that surprising because it's not like there are only a select group of 20-30 elite players who can accomplish it like your post kinda makes it seem.

 

[Stealth JD]

I'm not sure what Perron, Berglund and Stempniak really have to do with this. Just because they were drafted by the same team has nothing to do with Tage Thompson's chances of hitting 30 goals...

just pointing out how rare it is to actually find a guy who's capable of 30-goals. some really productive NHL'ers have come through this organization who have never sniffed that threshold. 30-goals is a premiere goal scorer in this league. I'd be stunned if that's what Thompson became. Stunned.

 

[BlueDream]

just pointing out how rare it is to actually find a guy who's capable of 30-goals. some really productive NHL'ers have come through this organization who have never sniffed that threshold. 30-goals is a premiere goal scorer in this league. I'd be stunned if that's what Thompson became. Stunned.

Guess you missed the rest of my post then.

Jason Zucker, Cam Atkinson, Patrick Eaves and more are elite premiere goal scorers!

You can go ahead and be stunned but you're judging the kid way too early in that case. I listed a whole plethora of guys who weren't even high picks that have reached that number. Nobody really has a clue whether Thompson has that ability or not at this point. Berglund, Perron and Stempniak are pretty mediocre players so that doesn't do anything to convince me.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I think the point here is that we shouldn’t be upset about getting a 30-40-50 point kind of player. That production is suuuper valuable, and not nearly as common as folks around here tend to think. 30 goals is phenomenal, but I think if he becomes “the guy” on the power play, it wouldn’t be totally out of the question for him. Even more so if he manages to get effective in front of the net too. We haven’t drafted a guy like that since Fabbri, and we really don’t know if he’ll ever be back for sure. I like Thompson’s game a lot, and I think it will translate. Just because he won’t be PPG, doesn’t mean he isn’t valuable

 

[The Note]

Well there’s also an important distinction between scoring 30 goals once and being a consistent threat to score 30 goals. Could Thompson have a one-off 30 goal season? I wouldn’t bet on it, but it wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world. I have a tremendous amount of doubt that he will ever string multiple 30 goal seasons together though.

My impression here has been some folks thinks he’s likely to be a consistent 30 goal scorer, and I just don’t ever see that being the case. Like I said earlier in this thread, I see his absolute ceiling being a 50 point player but him actually being more of 30-35 point guy. IMO he has the second highest floor but the lowest ceiling of Kyrou/Thomas/Kostin

 

[brokeu91]

IMO he has the highest floor but the lowest ceiling of Kyrou/Thomas/Kostin

Do you really think he has a higher floor than Thomas? I would have thought Thomas has a higher floor and higher ceiling, given how defensively responsible Thomas is.

 

[The Note]

Do you really think he has a higher floor than Thomas? I would have thought Thomas has a higher floor and higher ceiling, given how defensively responsible Thomas is.

I thought I had put second highest floor in my post. I agree, I think Thomas is probably a safer all around bet.

 

[EastonBlues22]

I mean, it's certainly possible that Thompson could reach that milestone at some point in his career. I just thought it was unusual that someone would be confident of it happening.

I think the Blues would be lucky to have him develop into someone like Bjugstad, and there are a lot of similarities there now that I think about it. Similar size and body types. Both have good shots. Thompson's one-timer is probably more dangerous, but Bjugstad is better at using his size and around the net. Both are mobile and have soft hands and good puck skills for their size. Both are competent, though not truly dangerous, passers. Both seem to have good character, and both need to round out their game in their own end. Neither is a guy who is going to rag-doll or destroy another player physically, and neither really plays the sort of net-front "post-up" style that one might expect or hope for given their size. They're both big guys that play a "skill" game.

There's certainly room for a guy like that on this team, both now and in the coming years. My fear is that he'll ultimately leave you wanting, though, if you are hoping he will become a true top 6 player, or a guy who will play a traditional "big man's game" (i.e. hard/frequent hits, posting up in front of the goalie, using physicality to generate offense, etc.).