Proposal: STL–NJD

[Dog]

The 10th is simply too high for a 1 year player who just had his worst year out of the last 4. You can't sign him until July 1st. This would be a very bad risk for NJ handing over the 10th overall pick without another need coming back. I agree, the target should be the goalie without needing the top 6/top line winger coming back.

Devils will get better offers for 10th overall and if they are interested in really moving the pick they can if want.

 

[PocketNines]

Take a breath. This isn't so serious.

I asked how far the value is. If the bridge is too far, there is nothing to negotiate. I also think you are overrating their value.

the old terrible offer, followed by patronizing.

failure

 

[dgibb10]

It’s a full season worth of time and the devils would have a chance to flip him for that high rental price if he didn’t work out. Buchnevich is unquestionably worth more now than he Is at the TDL…this isn’t really up for debate.

If you know any available proven cup winning #1 goalies coming off excellent seasons making less than $6 million then by all means trade for them instead.

Jordan Binnington has the same GSAx over the last 3 years as Georgiev who costs 3.4 mill. He had a good year. But you never want to be the team to buy high on 1 good year from a 30+ year old goalie making 6 mill.

Rental prices are higher at the deadline. If the price is lower for him 50% at the deadline, happy to wait until then. Then I can buy a 4 mill UFA instead, accrue cap space until the deadline and have Buchnevich AND another guy for a cup run instead of just Buchnevich.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I'd talk myself into this as a Devils fan. Binnington at 3 more years is better than any UFA contracts NJ could sign to address goaltending and it's a seller's market. I'm fully ready for the NJ trade for a goalie to be painful and the guy they get to have question marks around them.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

the old terrible offer, followed by patronizing.

failure

There are a lot of reasonable Blues fans who have made good arguments why they think my original proposal wasn't good enough. I appreciate their arguments, although I'm necessarily agree everything with them.

You can communicate with style, or you can be an asshole. You chose the latter way.

 

[dgibb10]

There are a lot of reasonable Blues fans who have made good arguments why they think my original proposal wasn't good enough. I appreciate their arguments, although I'm necessarily agree everything with them.

You can communicate with style, or you can be an asshole. You chose the latter way.

Binnington had a really good year. So as so many fanbases are, they are convinced that the singular best year of the last 3 is a guarantee of what he will be for all time going forward. Which simply isn't the case with goaltenders.

And Buchnevich has been in rumours for 3 years, and the fanbase hasn't moved their valuation from what he was worth with 3 years left, to what it is now as a rental

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Bahl and the B prospect do not interest us, they are little decorations on a naked draft pick for two high end NHL veterans. Imagine believing you are getting a 1G and a top line winger for just the 10th overall pick, are you out of your mind

Buchnevich is a pending UFA, which drastically diminishes his value.

I am not speaking one way or the other on this overall proposal, but yeah.

 

[stl76]

Jordan Binnington has the same GSAx over the last 3 years as Georgiev who costs 3.4 mill. He had a good year. But you never want to be the team to buy high on 1 good year from a 30+ year old goalie making 6 mill.

Rental prices are higher at the deadline. If the price is lower for him 50% at the deadline, happy to wait until then. Then I can buy a 4 mill UFA instead, accrue cap space until the deadline and have Buchnevich AND another guy for a cup run instead of just Buchnevich.

This is such a lazy take. Comparing Binnington to Georgiev? Binnington has had 1 good year? C’mon.

Go look up the top paid goalies in the NHL and see where Binnington’s contract lands. Look it up again after July 1st and even more goalies are paid more than his $6 million.

He is paid very much in line with his performance and the length of the contract takes him thru the rest of his prime (during which more and more goalies will sign for higher AAV). It’s a good contract and quite valuable to any team trying to win no matter what stats you want to cherry pick.

Binnington had a really good year. So as so many fanbases are, they are convinced that the singular best year of the last 3 is a guarantee of what he will be for all time going forward. Which simply isn't the case with goaltenders.

And Buchnevich has been in rumours for 3 years, and the fanbase hasn't moved their valuation from what he was worth with 3 years left, to what it is now as a rental

The bolded is just complete and utter horse shit. Actually, the only thing that is not horse shit in this post is the first sentence. Give your head a shake.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Some of the logic in here is pretty bizarre. Arguing that Buchnevich is worth less now than at the deadline is a real head-scratcher, especially coming from fans of a team that just had a season like the Devils. Having a player for a full season is clearly more valuable than getting them for the final stretch run, even with the cap benefits factored in. Blues can still retain to make a deal happen, and it's not like Jersey is tight against the cap. After last season, Jersey can't just simply wait till the deadline to make these types of moves.

Buchnevich also hasn't been in the rumors the last 3 years, just last season and that was because we were looking for a king's ransom. Latest rumors were us looking for an extension, so we'll see how it plays out.

I understand that Binnington is a pretty divisive player, but last season he was one of the top goalies in the league and looked like he did in 2019. He was very focused mentally. It would have to be an offer that is very much worth it to move him.

 

[theoptimist]

I support this deal because Long Name is being dealt

 

[dgibb10]

Some of the logic in here is pretty bizarre. Arguing that Buchnevich is worth less now than at the deadline is a real head-scratcher, especially coming from fans of a team that just had a season like the Devils. Having a player for a full season is clearly more valuable than getting them for the final stretch run, even with the cap benefits factored in. Blues can still retain to make a deal happen, and it's not like Jersey is tight against the cap. After last season, Jersey can't just simply wait till the deadline to make these types of moves.

Buchnevich also hasn't been in the rumors the last 3 years, just last season and that was because we were looking for a king's ransom. Latest rumors were us looking for an extension, so we'll see how it plays out.

I understand that Binnington is a pretty divisive player, but last season he was one of the top goalies in the league and looked like he did in 2019. He was very focused mentally. It would have to be an offer that is very much worth it to move him.

If you retain 50% he's more valuable now.

But 5 mill in real dollars is very meaningful to a team.

And simply historically, rentals are worth less in the offseason because of free agency. 6 mill could get us an excellent LD upgrade which we really need, and then we could still buy buchnevich at the deadline if we wanted to.

This is such a lazy take. Comparing Binnington to Georgiev? Binnington has had 1 good year? C’mon.

Go look up the top paid goalies in the NHL and see where Binnington’s contract lands. Look it up again after July 1st and even more goalies are paid more than his $6 million.

He is paid very much in line with his performance and the length of the contract takes him thru the rest of his prime (during which more and more goalies will sign for higher AAV). It’s a good contract and quite valuable to any team trying to win no matter what stats you want to cherry pick.


The bolded is just complete and utter horse shit. Actually, the only thing that is not horse shit in this post is the first sentence. Give your head a shake.

Over the last 3 years georgiev has a better SV%, better GAA, and better GSAx.

The historical data suggests goalies are in their prime in their late 20s. Binnington's contract takes him through his likely declining years.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Then by all means, go get Georgiev, but you know Binnington is the better goalie.

Show the work on rentals are worth less in the off-season than at the deadline.

 

[dgibb10]

Then by all means, go get Georgiev, but you know Binnington is the better goalie.

Based on what data over the last 3 years. Binnington was certainly better in 23-24. But not in 22-23, and not in 21-22.

And Georgiev would save 2.6 mill in cap, cost less assets, and isn't a head case

 

[biturbo19]

I can see something like this working.

As a side note though, i feel like if the Devils are acquiring Buchnevich and giving up that kind of value to do so...it'd have to be under the premise that they're going to get him locked up to a contract extension, rather than as just a rental. But...that also basically means they'd have to get something lined up to move Timo Meier out, no?

The flexibility they get from having Hughes and Hischier on great value contracts is nice...but i don't see how you can afford to allocate that much cap to retain Buchnevich longer-term, while still keeping Meier around at $8.8M as well.


But i'm not sure how easy it'd be to move that Meier contract at this point. It's a huge amount of money and term for what is right now, a pretty distressed asset who really hasn't looked like anything close to "value" for the money.

 

[dgibb10]

I can see something like this working.

As a side note though, i feel like if the Devils are acquiring Buchnevich and giving up that kind of value to do so...it'd have to be under the premise that they're going to get him locked up to a contract extension, rather than as just a rental. But...that also basically means they'd have to get something lined up to move Timo Meier out, no?

The flexibility they get from having Hughes and Hischier on great value contracts is nice...but i don't see how you can afford to allocate that much cap to retain Buchnevich longer-term, while still keeping Meier around at $8.8M as well.


But i'm not sure how easy it'd be to move that Meier contract at this point. It's a huge amount of money and term for what is right now, a pretty distressed asset who really hasn't looked like anything close to "value" for the money.

Moving out Timo for Buchnevich would be dumb.

Timo also looked fantastic after getting healthy again. I'd advise you to take a quick look at his stats after the new year

 

[biturbo19]

Moving out Timo for Buchnevich would be dumb.

Timo also looked fantastic after getting healthy again. I'd advise you to take a quick look at his stats after the new year

Ehhh...it's hard to put a lot of faith in a guy suddenly "bouncing back" in what amounts to garbage time on the season for the Devils. When the pressure was alleviated and he could go back to just collecting his points on a team with no real contender aspirations (as he did in San Jose).

But even if you put that aside and give him the benefit of the doubt...Is it really prudent to stock your team with a trio of ~$8M+ wingers, locked in for half a dozen years+? Plus another $6M winger in the mix as well. Because Buchnevich is going to be looking for very much that sort of Timo contract or likely more.

It's just a very top-heavy, wing-heavy cap allocation to roll forward with, locked in for that many years. Hischier's sweetheart deal doesn't run forever, and at some point...they aren't going to have guys like Hughes and Nemec on dirt cheap ELCs. Locking in that much to a trio of wingers long-term looks like a set of significant future handcuffs. And that's not even accounting for what happens with Mercer as well...who has the potential to get very expensive if he bounces back to his previous trajectory.


Just really hard for me to see both Meier and Buchnevich on $8-10M long-term contracts as something sustainable down the line. So if they're going after Buch...

 

[sfvega]

Based on what data over the last 3 years. Binnington was certainly better in 23-24. But not in 22-23, and not in 21-22.

And Georgiev would save 2.6 mill in cap, cost less assets, and isn't a head case

Binnington was better 3 years ago. He put up a better sv% while being behind a much worse Blues defense, while Georgiev was the back-up behind a very good Rangers defense. How about playoff numbers? How about before that for a guy with "only 1 good year"? This is the issue with these boards is there's very one-sided discussions. A fanbase is interested in acquiring a guy, then when the price is more than they want to pay it becomes a frustrating used car buyer who wants to tell you what a piece of shit this thing is. There's not an interest in the whole story, just beating you up on valuation. What do you think the valuation would be on Dougie Hamilton the last 3 years? Someone could easily dump on his value over the last 3 years, but would you agree? Probably not.

 

[Zippy316]

I’d rather target Saad than Buchnevich in all honesty from a Devils perspective.

But at the same time, I would have a hard time giving up #10 in a package for Saad + Binnington.

 

[PocketNines]

Buchnevich is a pending UFA, which drastically diminishes his value.

I am not speaking one way or the other on this overall proposal, but yeah.

so rather than opt for a late first at the deadline for him we should accept the diminished value and trade him on the cheap now

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

so rather than opt for a late first at the deadline for him we should accept the diminished value and trade him on the cheap now

the 1st you're getting at the deadline would be for 2025 and it would be in the late teens/early 20s at best

the 1st you'd be (theoretically) getting in this trade would be 10th overall in 2024.

so yes, that is a big difference.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I mentioned this as a general idea on Devils HF but never fully thought of it. Was thinking this would do 2 birds with 1 stone type of a deal with the Devils getting a goalie + Bratt/Hughes getting a power forward wing next to them. I would do this but I understand the hesitant from Blues fans wanting to do a sign and trade to up Buch's value in any trade if he doesn't extend in St. Louis himself in short order.

so rather than opt for a late first at the deadline for him we should accept the diminished value and trade him on the cheap now

The firsts you're getting would be way worse like ZBC said, this is a definite top 10 pick.

 

[bleedblue1223]

the 1st you're getting at the deadline would be for 2025 and it would be in the late teens/early 20s at best

the 1st you'd be (theoretically) getting in this trade would be 10th overall in 2024.

so yes, that is a big difference.

If it was just Buchnevich for the 10th+, then sure, but Binnington isn't just some throw in.

And while Buch can't officially sign, if he's traded at the draft, I'd expect Army to let the team talk with him to get general contract terms discussed.

 

[lanceuppercut75]

I also don’t think they’re ready to throw Hofer to the wolves just yet.

To be fair, I don't think it would cost THAT much to get Vejmelka (1 year stop-gap) from Utah. I also think you could get Husso (1 year stop-gap) basically for free from Detroit. One more year with Hofer as a tandem or backup.

 

[Djp]

Yes, buchnevich 50% retained at the deadline when prices are highest and the acquiring team has to pay him 500k is worth a late 1st and B prospect.

Now, at a full 5.8 million when prices are lowest and the acquiring team has to may him 5.8 million is worth more?

Prices on rentals are highest at the trade deadline.

Without an extension they have lie value. At the deadline with retention it dorsnt vista as much.

Looking AZ t s 20'32 pick+B contract

Binnington does not have a particularly great contract.

He does not have 1st round value

 

[New Jersey Devil]

NJ should go after Vejmelka and Vladar, Czech mates! How could you lose if you already won? And that is the match!

No, they shouldn't.