Value of: Steven Stamkos’ next contract
- Thread starter LightningStrikes
- Start date
Beukeboom Fan
Registered User
After this year - Hagel's cap goes up $5M. I don't think the cap is supposed to go up that much is it?
DistantThunderRep
Registered User
- Mar 8, 2018
- 20,335
- 17,434
Not really. It wouldn't be his choice to leave. It would be because of our cap situation. We shouldn't pay him more than $8M a year.
TheImpatientPanther
Registered User
Ya good point on Hagel. Didn't realize it was that much difference.
More meant over next few years, suppose to go up ~9-10 million over next 3 years?
HairyKneel
Registered User
- Jun 5, 2023
- 1,286
- 1,177
Probably some Leaf fans that think every player wants to play in Toronto. Or maybe they want to save the Pigman from a few more beatings.
Last edited:
Beukeboom Fan
Registered User
The 9-10 million over the next 3 years seems pretty reasonable IMO. The "problem" the Bolts have (which most teams would love to have) is that there isn't much salary falling off and they're locked into their core long term with very little flexibility as most of the contracts that ending are around $1M where you don't free up any salary because you have to "refill" the rosterspot.
Stamkos is a 2008 pick. ELC then a 5 year deal IIRC. So was 26 when he got his 8 year deal. He will be 34 when his deal ends.
Fully expect TB to play this out and see where he is vs. sign him early. At 34, at best you're hoping he maintains what he has done in his early 30's. But, should see what the wear and tear on the body is like. He's been in TB for 16 years, so he's unlikely to want to leave if you put forth a fair offer. I wouldn't go long on term. Talking 2-3 year deal max.
Fully expect TB to play this out and see where he is vs. sign him early. At 34, at best you're hoping he maintains what he has done in his early 30's. But, should see what the wear and tear on the body is like. He's been in TB for 16 years, so he's unlikely to want to leave if you put forth a fair offer. I wouldn't go long on term. Talking 2-3 year deal max.
Em etah Eh
Maroon PP
- Jul 17, 2007
- 3,130
- 1,537
1 year deals with bonuses for easily reachable games played so Tampa can defer cap each year if they need to…
- Jun 17, 2009
- 10,382
- 6,527
My stance has been the team will try to use term to bring his cap hit down the same way they tried to bring Killorn's down. They would be a similar age when the extension kicks in.
f*** it, the window isn't open that much longer. Stamkos' injury history make him a prime candidate to be LTIRetired anyways. He's been the face of the franchise for so long, might as well reward him.
f*** it, the window isn't open that much longer. Stamkos' injury history make him a prime candidate to be LTIRetired anyways. He's been the face of the franchise for so long, might as well reward him.
I wonder to what # the cap hit could be lowered to over 5 years? Signing bonus heavy, with a wink wink agreement to retire after 4?
Henkka
Registered User
It will leave ~7.5M of cap space for Stamkos.
11.6M in cap space for 2024-25 season. You can fill 5 roster spots with 4M (800k mimimum deals).
That will leave the rest for Stammer.
mouser
Business of Hockey
mouser
Business of Hockey
Beukeboom Fan
Registered User
From looking at CapFriendly - the Bolts already have 6 players making essentially the league minimum (included Perbix @ $1.1M because that's pretty close). If the Bolts go with SS @ $7.5M, they'd have 11 guys on the roster essentially making the league minimum. I'd be real interested to see how that works out for TB, because for play-off success you need contributions from up and down the line-up.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Before Covid derailing things, the cap was projected to be $85-$88M range. That was a report released in early 2020 I believe.
Fast forward to end of this season where the NHLPA outstanding balanced is paid, I won't be surprised if they have a cap close to $90M. We do have Seattle's revenue as well as the new US TV deals. Although one of those deals went belly up but I have not heard much about it over the last few months.
It's difficult to project. What happens this season with revenue and if the NHLPA outstanding Ballance is paid 100% or not.
Bettman was open to increasing the cap but with a higher escrow and it appears the NHLPA voted no. Now we might have a shock to the system because it might go up $6-$8M range. $5M appears to be the low number from what I gather
Beukeboom Fan
Registered User
Hope you're right about the #.
Just as a FYI - but Seattle revenue would only increase the cap if they brought in more than the league average HRR. (In other words the HRR goes up, but we're dividing by 32 teams now instead of 31).
Skinnyjimmy08
WorldTraveler
- Mar 30, 2012
- 22,795
- 12,510
He is a prime candidate to take way less than he could get as a UFA and stay there till he retires
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
mouser
Business of Hockey
$87.7m is the default maximum cap for 2024-2025 unless the NHL and PA agree to raise it higher.
The 2020 MOU stipulates the cap cannot increase more than 5% without the agreement of both parties.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
You are only listing a few clauses of many. The #1 rule is 50/50 on revenue split. If the NHLPA outstanding balance is paid off this year, and the revenue supports a higher cap north of $87.7M, it will move up. Seattle and US TV deals are pushing revenue up on top of the normal inflation. The only hiccup is that one of the US TV deals went belly up last season. What are the impacts to that? Not exactly sure and Bettman will replace it I bet.
That 2020 MOU was written with guesses on revenue and several clauses in place to protect both sides. There was no way of knowing when exactly the outstanding balance would be paid and all reports we have heard lately is they are ahead of schedule, not behind. I'm pretty sure the 2020 MOU projected that the outstanding balance would not be paid off this season and it appears it will be. That will change things for both sides.
Bettman himself asked the players if they wanted to increase the cap for this season with a higher escrow. Players said no. So yeah, we are steering towards a shock to the system with a big bump in cap.
bert
Registered User
That's what I was thinking. 7 million x 4 years seems fair for the team and the player. Especially if he wants to win again.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Good point with Seattle. However, I believe they are a 10th in franchise value and also revenue they brought in last year, so I think they will push it up slightly. Lots of buzz in that city for Hockey and I don't see that fading away.
I think how much the cap grows will depend on a few factors:
* When will the NHPA outstanding balance be paid? Half way through this season, 3/4? Or will it take the entire season? If it's half way or 3/4 and the extra revenue exceeds the 6% escrow amount, the difference gets pushed into next year's revenue.
* How much extra revenue is Seattle brining in? Doesn't look they will drag it down at this stage. They brought in $191M in revenue which is close to the Devils, Knights, Caps, Flyers, Wings. In Comparison, the Rangers were 1st with $249M. Leafs and Habs are $248M and $239M. Seattle is a succuss no doubt.
* How much extra revenue is the new US TV deals brining in? The bankruptcy of Bally Sports Regional Networks has affected 12 NHL teams. This part is the most unknown in terms of how much this affects overall revenue.
* Inflation. Prior to Covid in early 2020, reports indicated the cap for 20/21 would be $85M - $88M range. Covid derailed is shortly after. Ever since allowing fans back in the seats, all reports indicate revenue has come back more than expected and they are ahead of their projections in terms of how fast the NHLPA outstanding balance would be paid off.
I'm willing to bet the cap will be $88M - $90M range. Something we don't know today would have to pop up to derail it.
The Winter Soldier
Registered User
- Apr 4, 2011
- 71,029
- 21,381
If Stamkos wants to stay in TB, I say he will accept a team friendly deal. Much like Bergeron did in Boston. Hedman, Kuch Vasi and Point are the TB's best players. If he wants to help TB win, he should take 7M-7.5M per, short deal and send a signal to the team's internal cap structure, it's about winning. That's leadership. It's what Bergeron did. Careers are short, he's made his money, only so many kicks at the can for another cup, he may factor this in.
mouser
Business of Hockey
It's not necessary to raise the cap more than 5% to ensure a 50/50 revenue split. The owners can top off the players at the end of the season if they didn't receive the full 50%. It's essentially reverse escrow, except the owners don't have to stow away those funds in a escrow account.
Will the NHL and PA agree to more than a 5% increase? I'd hope so. But when faced with the question whether to increase the cap this season by more than $1m they couldn't come to an agreement.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Players hate escrow which is why they voted no to increasing the cap this season. Escrow would have been higher than 6%
If the owners top up at the end of the season ($87.5M cap for 24/25), how do they distribute it? Prorated? Seems tricky to me and if there is rumors of that near the end of this season, you can forget about players taking low AAV's to join a contender.
