Value of: Steven Stamkos’ next contract

[AndreRoy]

I mean unimpressive in the way they score points. He puts up points but doesn't look dominant or impressive in doing so.

I can understand dominant: he doesn’t consistently drive play at even strength anymore and has really been a shell of his former self since breaking his tibia in 2013. But even though he’s largely become a one-timer specialist, he still has the best shot in the game, and to me that qualifies as impressive.

(And before anybody gives me crap on that last point, take a look at his shooting percentage and compare it to those of Ovechkin, McDavid, Matthews, et. al. And that’s with the vast majority of his shots coming from the perimeter. Stammer’s injuries have hurt both his mobility and his confidence in attacking the net, and as a result he isn’t able to put himself into a position to shoot as frequently as those guys, but when he does pull the trigger there’s nobody better at putting the puck in the back of the net. There are better scorers in the league today but Stamkos both throughout his career and still over the last few years has been the best pure shooter.)

 

[Stephen]

You gotta love how in Bettman’s hard cap system the reward for a career spent on one team being the face of it, winning multiple championships and still producing at a high rate is the privilege of taking a hometown discount.

 

[57special]

To the his boyhood team for 4 x 11.5M.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

Honestly I’d offer 8x8 from a leafs POV

 

[Stephen Gionta]

If I'm Stamkos, I would be asking for a 4-5 year deal @5-6 million AAV.

5 year, $25 million seems like a pretty solid contract to help himself, as well as help the team remain competitive over the next 5 seasons.

 

[Curufinwe]

You gotta love how in Bettman’s hard cap system the reward for a career spent on one team being the face of it, winning multiple championships and still producing at a high rate is the privilege of taking a hometown discount.

Matthews hasn't taken any discounts or won any championships under the hard cap.

 

[Stephen]

Matthews hasn't taken any discounts or won any championships under the hard cap.

Well that’s a different conundrum…

 

[Legion34]

He won’t take less in terms of money in his pocket.

He will sti for full sb and get the no state tax discount that Everyone pretends doesn’t exist despite agents players GMs and accountants saying it does

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

He won’t take less in terms of money in his pocket.

He will sti for full sb and get the no state tax discount that Everyone pretends doesn’t exist despite agents players GMs and accountants saying it does

Legion - do you understand how state taxes work? There is a benefit to playing in a no-tax state like FL, but it's less than folks think because all players pay taxes in the states where the games are played.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Legion - do you understand how state taxes work? There is a benefit to playing in a no-tax state like FL, but it's less than folks think because all players pay taxes in the states where the games are played.

Yay!

Where / which state does his huge signing bonus get paid?

And then at least 50 of his remaining 82 games are paid out in tax friendly state!

 

[AndreRoy]

He won’t take less in terms of money in his pocket.

He will sti for full sb and get the no state tax discount that Everyone pretends doesn’t exist despite agents players GMs and accountants saying it does

Do people really have to derail every single Lightning-related thread with this moronic bullshit? Take your pathetic whining somewhere else.

 

[n8]

If resigning with Tampa, I imagine it something like 1x9, 2x8, or 3x7. 4x7 if Tampa is feeling generous. I'm always surprised seeing clubs give out contracts pass the age of 36+ but it keeps happening as a tactic for reducing AAV I guess. Anze Kopitar has a fairly significant contract for a 36 y.o. but he did have himself quite a year in 2023. Stamkos gets more because he's still only 33.

If another team is in the picture well... they're probably gonna have to entice him out of Tampa which probably looks more like 1x10, 2x9.25, 3x8.5, or even 4x8.5

I feel like the AAV between 3 and 4 years is gonna be really the same. At 3 years it means the club negotiated more successfully. At 4 years it means the player agent was the more successful negotiator.

 

[MikeK]

I'll be shocked if he doesn't end his career in Tampa. I can also see him taking less. He already has more money than he and his family will ever need. At this point it's about being where you want to be.

 

[CupsOverCash]

You gotta love how in Bettman’s hard cap system the reward for a career spent on one team being the face of it, winning multiple championships and still producing at a high rate is the privilege of taking a hometown discount.

Not like anyone forced him to do it. He could have went elsewhere if he felt like he was mistreated. He wanted to win. Good for him that he didn't take max on deal and valued winning more. Maybe some players could learn if they value winning more.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

4 x $7.5 million. Cap going up, he's still a great player but I think he takes less to help raise one more Cup in this current 3-4 year window they have left.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

4 x $7.5 million. Cap going up, he's still a great player but I think he takes less to help raise one more Cup in this current 3-4 year window they have left.

This is the hope. That another cup is more important than money now. He's made $100m over his career, but it's really hard to say no to extra $4m-$8m over the last years of his career.

 

[DFC]

I think something like 7.5m x 6 years. And he will play until TB is forced to rebuild.

 

[Stephen]

Not like anyone forced him to do it. He could have went elsewhere if he felt like he was mistreated. He wanted to win. Good for him that he didn't take max on deal and valued winning more. Maybe some players could learn if they value winning more.

Yeah of course Stamkos is his own man and free to prioritize what’s important to him. But I think the problem with the system is players like Stamkos have to artificially choose between winning and more money and not have both.

And then, having then achieved all you can achieve in the game, Stamkos now wins the right to take another discount. From a sweat equity, building up your franchise kind of perspective, it just doesn’t seem like a fair deal.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Yeah of course Stamkos is his own man and free to prioritize what’s important to him. But I think the problem with the system is players like Stamkos have to artificially choose between winning and more money and not have both.

And then, having then achieved all you can achieve in the game, Stamkos now wins the right to take another discount. From a sweat equity, building up your franchise kind of perspective, it just doesn’t seem like a fair deal.

But you understand why they have the cap in place right? It's so that teams like Toronto or the NY rangers with bigger pockets don't just buy a player they want. He is still getting paid more money than most people in the world I don't think they are complaining that much. Also Stamkos is in one of the better places to play in the game. It's not like he's choosing crap. Although I'm sure people from Toronto wish there was no cap so it would be easier for them to get out of the first round than it's been. Teams actually have to build a good team. It's easier to complain about it actually.

 

[Stephen]

But you understand why they have the cap in place right? It's so that teams like Toronto or the NY rangers with bigger pockets don't just buy a player they want. He is still getting paid more money than most people in the world I don't think they are complaining that much. Also Stamkos is in one of the better places to play in the game. It's not like he's choosing crap. Although I'm sure people from Toronto wish there was no cap so it would be easier for them to get out of the first round than it's been. Teams actually have to build a good team. It's easier to complain about it actually.

I think even a Tampa fan should see how there are significant flaws with a system that hurts players even if it has benefitted your team on the ice. Here you've drafted a player at 18, a fantastic program has been built around him, the franchise value is greater than before, championships have been delivered. And as a final thank you, you are free to take an even smaller piece of the pie, or hit the road.

Beyond the big spending boogie man in Toronto and New York, this system is pretty rough. Just seems like there should be something at the end of the road that can reward a player.

 

[johnnybbadd]

I would say his best comparables are Giroux, Kopitar and Malkin. Malkin signed for 4 years and was older than Stamkos will be. Kopitar is the shortest term and highest cap % and Giroux was the same age that Stamkos will be but had worse numbers going into his 3 year deal. I say 3 years 7.5 per year or 4 years at slighty less than 7 per year.

 

[centipede2233]

I would say his best comparables are Giroux, Kopitar and Malkin. Malkin signed for 4 years and was older than Stamkos will be. Kopitar is the shortest term and highest cap % and Giroux was the same age that Stamkos will be but had worse numbers going into his 3 year deal. I say 3 years 7.5 per year or 4 years at slighty less than 7 per year.

The malkin contract is what I’d expect. 4 yrs where the 4th year is mostly a signing bonus paid on July 1 and stamkos retires after the bonus is paid. The 4th year is designed to keep the cap lower.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I think even a Tampa fan should see how there are significant flaws with a system that hurts players even if it has benefitted your team on the ice. Here you've drafted a player at 18, a fantastic program has been built around him, the franchise value is greater than before, championships have been delivered. And as a final thank you, you are free to take an even smaller piece of the pie, or hit the road.

Beyond the big spending boogie man in Toronto and New York, this system is pretty rough. Just seems like there should be something at the end of the road that can reward a player.

It only seems broken because the cap has been stagnant for the last 3 years. The pie players get increase the same percentage the cap goes up. Realistically, if the cap grew the way it was supposed to during COVID, a fair Stamkos contract would have been $10M/year.

 

[Leviathan]

6 years, 8.5.

too long but theyll give him it as a thank you

might hit LTIR towards the end

 

[JTBF81]

Tampa won't have the space for more than 7.5-8 and still fill out a 22 player roster. 7.5x4 seems about right, with 8 aav at the high end. 7.5-8 leaves Tampa with, depending on where the cap ends up next year, somewhere in the 3.7-4.2 range(based on.most estimates) to sign 4 additional players after Stamkos. It will be close, but it is doable. At 8.5+ it really isn't feasible for Tampa to sign 2 additional F, a 3LD, and a #7, even with most of them going to be near or at league min.