Stephen Weiss

[Roy S]

Yea and all 3 of those guys have a points per minute production that's like 60% of Weiss' at best.

Ok, but that isn't going to be repeatable going forward. He never had that high of a pts/60 when he was actually a good player in Florida and it was inflated this season by the highest shooting percentage of his career. Scoring points also isn't the only thing that matter as it ignores his defense and lack of two-way play. He was a net negative when he was on the ice at even strength even with incredibly easy ice time.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Erm, so, at the moment you think it's easier to defend the Weiss signing than if we had kept Fil?

I think something that's not being considered is what Weiss would have done in the interim elsewhere. If we're saying that anywhere Weiss signed he was going to miss most of a year and then suck (or at least perceptually suck) when he did get on the ice, then no. In any other outcome where Weiss is approximately as productive as he's been throughout his career, then yes.

New car smell wins all ties.

but it's not as if we would be pining for Weiss or any of those other centers who were on the market in July '13 as a result of the "gigantic mistake" of giving in to Fil's demands.

I haven't been on these boards in quite a while, but I don't think the notion of buyer's remorse has gone anywhere in the meantime... especially when we're talking about a contract that would make him the 3rd or 4th highest paid player on the team. I mean, Franzen's contract was a mil less against the cap and he's had a target on his back for years now. Howard is 2 years into a 6 year deal and it won't be long until his contract starts getting annoying to people. The Ericsson contract probably made people play a couple rounds of woulda coulda shoulda, right? The Quincey resigning, too? Cleary?

If there's anything that could dethrone talking about what moves a GM should make, it's picking apart the ones they did.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Yea and all 3 of those guys have a points per minute production that's like 60% of Weiss' at best.

I get your general argument, but points per minute is also a metric that lauded Tomas Holmstrom. If a comparatively large portion of your total IT is PPIT, you're going to have a generally higher points per minute stat. Toss in strength of competition and it gets even less strictly reliable.

Weiss was in the old Hudler role this year, for the most part. He did less with it than Hudler did.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

If the Wings can't make use of the extra cap space that a Weiss buyout would create, I would be ok with bringing him back one more year to lessen the dead cap space a buyout will create. Although it would suck to waste the roster spot.

Although if we assume Cleary and Franzen are done, it might not matter.

 

[abbbaron]

I think something that's not being considered is what Weiss would have done in the interim elsewhere. If we're saying that anywhere Weiss signed he was going to miss most of a year and then suck (or at least perceptually suck) when he did get on the ice, then no. In any other outcome where Weiss is approximately as productive as he's been throughout his career, then yes.

New car smell wins all ties.

I hinted at this in a previous post; of course we can't say for sure what he'd be doing elsewhere, but given that he was damaged goods when he signed in 2013, it's fair to assume that his 2013/14 season wasn't going to be any better elsewhere. This last season, with the relative good health, who knows, but Toronto was the only other team really hot after Weiss and he's from the area, so I'm comfortable saying that there's a high probability he'd be wearing the Maple Leaf and not making Wings fans regret much up to this point. That's not to say that people here would be content with Fil, in fact I imagine we'd probably be hashing out trade scenarios for Fil and whatever blueliner. But ultimately I'd find it easier to defend Fil's contract because in that discussion about what to do with Fil, I don't think people would be talking about the real possibility of buying the guy out, and I don't think we'd have another guy who was a free agent at the time to point to and say Holland woulda coulda shoulda.

I haven't been on these boards in quite a while, but I don't think the notion of buyer's remorse has gone anywhere in the meantime... especially when we're talking about a contract that would make him the 3rd or 4th highest paid player on the team. I mean, Franzen's contract was a mil less against the cap and he's had a target on his back for years now. Howard is 2 years into a 6 year deal and it won't be long until his contract starts getting annoying to people. The Ericsson contract probably made people play a couple rounds of woulda coulda shoulda, right? The Quincey resigning, too? Cleary?

If there's anything that could dethrone talking about what moves a GM should make, it's picking apart the ones they did.

I've been following the boards here for less than a month, and compared to the PHT comments section which I've been following for a year and a half, I've noticed that a) seems people here are a little more critical of Holland, which is reassuring to me as I make up about 33-50% of the fire-Holland constituency over at PHT, and b) people here seem a little more than "a little more critical of Holland", which is to say that maybe the pendulum is hanging a bit too far in that direction and that it's become a bit of bandwagon act. I could add my two cents about each of those players/signings you mentioned, but I'll try to abide by the guidelines here and keep things (somewhat) related to Weiss

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I find this discussion odd considering that we went after Fil before and during free agency and he tested the market and went elsewhere. I don't see this as Holland walking way from Filppula for Weiss at all.

 

[abbbaron]

Weren't you the one who posted the link indicating that Fil circled back to the Wings on FA day only to find that the money was gone (because Holland signed Weiss)? That suggests at the very least that he was still open to staying with the Wings; we just don't know whether he did so expecting to Holland to sweeten the offer or what. Either way, it seems Fil was fairly interested in making it work in Detroit, but Holland wasn't quite as interested or patient.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

I always viewed it as Flip walking away from Detroit. Flip looked like a player that needed a change of scenery. I am glad Flip left, even with the Weiss signing ending up being a total disaster.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Ok, but that isn't going to be repeatable going forward. He never had that high of a pts/60 when he was actually a good player in Florida and it was inflated this season by the highest shooting percentage of his career. Scoring points also isn't the only thing that matter as it ignores his defense and lack of two-way play. He was a net negative when he was on the ice at even strength even with incredibly easy ice time.

Bla bla I'm not interested in the hypothetical what might have happened arguments. If he played 20 min per game with datsyuk and zetterberg he would have scored more than ovechkin etc. What DID happen, undeniably, is he outproduced all but 3 people on the team with the ice time he was given.

And as far as plus minus goes, half the team was negative, including our Lord and savior nyquist with -11, and Riley "unquestionably better than Weiss in every way" sheahan with -3.

I get your general argument, but points per minute is also a metric that lauded Tomas Holmstrom. If a comparatively large portion of your total IT is PPIT, you're going to have a generally higher points per minute stat. Toss in strength of competition and it gets even less strictly reliable.

Weiss was in the old Hudler role this year, for the most part. He did less with it than Hudler did.

I'm not arguing that his productivity is the end all argument that proves he is a great player. I'm not even arguing that he had a spot on this team. All I'm saying is that he had an undeniably VERY productive season.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Weren't you the one who posted the link indicating that Fil circled back to the Wings on FA day only to find that the money was gone (because Holland signed Weiss)? That suggests at the very least that he was still open to staying with the Wings; we just don't know whether he did so expecting to Holland to sweeten the offer or what. Either way, it seems Fil was fairly interested in making it work in Detroit, but Holland wasn't quite as interested or patient.

You missed the important part which includes what Mickey Redmond said about the situation:

[edit: and Mickey Redmond said that Holland had told him that the Wings had 2 offers for Filppula, one pre-free agency and one during free agency, but 4 or 5 teams were after Filppula and he was gone]

Even if Filppula was circling back around and it was too late, how long do you want Holland to wait for? Better a bird in hand instead of two in the bush, right?

 

[abbbaron]

You missed the important part which includes what Mickey Redmond said about the situation:

Yeah I read that part, however because the 'edit' starts off with the conjunction "and", I didn't interpret what followed as something meant to contradict the account that Babcock gave (in which case "but" or no conjunction at all would've been more appropriate). And even if it was meant to be a competing account, then whose version of events would you find to be more reliable? My money is on Babcock every time-- anyone who watches the wings telecasts and listens to Mickey should know he characterizes things in a roundabout way.

Even if Filppula was circling back around and it was too late, how long do you want Holland to wait for? Better a bird in hand instead of two in the bush, right?

Sure, but if that bird in hand was one picked up off the ground already half-eaten with flies all over it?
We don't know the salary involved in Holland's offers but I haven't seen anything to suggest Holland was willing to give him $5mil (I've only seen suggestions to the contrary). We do know that Holland ultimately signed Weiss and that the signing was announced before Fil's, and in fact before any of the other players Holland was rumored to be interested in.
All I can say is look at what's happening with the Babcock sweepstakes at the moment. If Holland really wants someone, he's willing to afford them a long leash and match competing offers. It's pretty clear that's not what happened with Fil. A lot of Wings fans were glad Holland didn't give Fil the 5yr/25mil kind of deal he was looking for, and I was one of them...until I learned that Holland pretty much gave Weiss the same damn contract.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

"It's pretty clear that's not what happened with Fil."

Not it's not. Also other than your own perceptions of Mickey's reliability, do you have anything to discount his version of events?

 

[abbbaron]

"It's pretty clear that's not what happened with Fil."

Not it's not.

WOW Do you have any sources indicating that Holland gave Fil permission to go speak with potential suitors and/or that Holland indicated to Fil that money wasn't going to be a problem (a la Babcock)? Do you see how ridiculous this is?

Also other than your own perceptions of Mickey's reliability, do you have anything to discount his version of events?

Yeah, see the sentence right before it. It includes a direct quotation, one that would be rather difficult to have taken out of context. Mickey's 'version of events' doesn't include anything of the sort-- it's actually a secondhand of a secondhand version of events and begins with the conjunction "and"-- maybe you have an explanation for that? While we're at it, would you like to characterize Mickey as someone who tells it like it is? And considering that 'Mickey's version' started with Ken Holland, would you characterize Holland as a straight-shooter as well?

 

[ArGarBarGar]

WOW Do you have any sources indicating that Holland gave Fil permission to go speak with potential suitors and/or that Holland indicated to Fil that money wasn't going to be a problem (a la Babcock)? Do you see how ridiculous this is?

Okay, so I see you are trying to compare two completely different situations, one with a coach and one with a player. I assumed you were talking about "matching competing offers" and such (you know, exactly what you said), which it is absolutely not clear that was the case. You are assuming Holland wasn't able to match Tampa's offer without anything that indicates such.

Yeah, see the sentence right before it. It includes a direct quotation, one that would be rather difficult to have taken out of context. Mickey's 'version of events' doesn't include anything of the sort-- it's actually a secondhand of a secondhand version of events and begins with the conjunction "and"-- maybe you have an explanation for that? While we're at it, would you like to characterize Mickey as someone who tells it like it is? And considering that 'Mickey's version' started with Ken Holland, would you characterize Holland as a straight-shooter as well?

I don't think Mickey would blatantly lie for no reason. Him saying "Holland sent him an offer before free agency and during free agency" is pretty straightforward. As far as Holland being a straight shooter, are you under the impression that Holland is lying?

Either way, Filppula was determined to test the waters, received multiple offers from Holland and said no to each and every one, and Holland at the end chose to go with the back-up plan in the end.

 

[Bench]

Either way, Filppula was determined to test the waters, received multiple offers from Holland and said no to each and every one, and Holland at the end chose to go with the back-up plan in the end.

Also note Holland's mantra, "We want guys who want to be here."

Weiss, at the time of the deal, was thrilled to be here. Weiss turned down a competitive offer from St. Louis to join Detroit. In hindsight... too bad St. Louis wasn't more appealing to him.

 

[Winger98]

Sheahan was Weiss's most common forward linemate by a pretty wide margin. Pulk and Helm were 2nd and 3rd. Anderrsson was 5th. I think the tales of his terrible linemates is a bit overblown.

He also faced some of the easiest competition on the team and got a lot of o zone faceoffs and was helped by a lucky shooting percentage. Even with all of that, he had terrible possession metrics and was a - in the +- department. Scoring points is nice but if you give up more goals than you produce than it doesn't matter as much. It's also why Jurco played over him down the stretch. He could get defensive zone faceoffs and have good possession metrics and a "+" +-, so even if he wasn't scoring a lot of points then he was still a more effective overall player.

I think they should just buy him out. At best, in a trade, they would still retain $2 to $3 million worth of his salary. I don't see much of an advantage.

He took very few shots and, from what I remember, a lot of those shots were from high percentage areas. For all of his negatives, Weiss has shown throughout his career that he knows how to score, so given the circumstances I don't think the shooting percentage is as much luck as its gaudiness makes it appear.

I'd like to see him bought out, too, but I think it's more likely he's in camp this fall and we have to hope that being healthy and a summer of training gets his legs back a bit. If he can skate again, I like his chances of being useful.

Sure, but if that bird in hand was one picked up off the ground already half-eaten with flies all over it?
We don't know the salary involved in Holland's offers but I haven't seen anything to suggest Holland was willing to give him $5mil (I've only seen suggestions to the contrary). We do know that Holland ultimately signed Weiss and that the signing was announced before Fil's, and in fact before any of the other players Holland was rumored to be interested in.
All I can say is look at what's happening with the Babcock sweepstakes at the moment. If Holland really wants someone, he's willing to afford them a long leash and match competing offers. It's pretty clear that's not what happened with Fil. A lot of Wings fans were glad Holland didn't give Fil the 5yr/25mil kind of deal he was looking for, and I was one of them...until I learned that Holland pretty much gave Weiss the same damn contract.

We have Babcock's replacement in house, we can afford to let him walk around and see if he can get better offers. And there's nothing in Holland's history to suggest he would have offered Filppula a lowball deal.

 

[abbbaron]

Okay, so I see you are trying to compare two completely different situations, one with a coach and one with a player. I assumed you were talking about "matching competing offers" and such (you know, exactly what you said), which it is absolutely not clear that was the case. You are assuming Holland wasn't able to match Tampa's offer without anything that indicates such.

If we're talking about Holland's ability to keep Filppula, then I'd refer you back to the Babcock quote. I'm assuming Holland wasn't willing to match Tampa's offer. The story in the press all along was that Holland wasn't willing to meet Fil's demands of that $5mil/5yr territory, and judging from what was coming out of the horse's mouth in the days leading up to July 5th, 2013, I'd have to believe that was the case:

July 3rd

“He’s looking forward to July 5,†Holland said. “There’s a significant difference (in negotiations). That’s why it doesn’t appear we’re positioned to do a deal.

“It makes good sense for Fil and his agent to see what’s out there. I’ll stay in contact with Fil’s agent. If it’s time to leave, it’s time to leave.

“When players hit the open market they’re probably moving on. Players usually get offers that are better because so many teams are in play.

Read: Holland knew his offer wasn't as good as what Fil was likely to get on the open market.

Already the day before FA day, July 4th Holland was signaling he was leaning towards Weiss:

“Do we have Dan Cleary signed, or not signed? Do we have Brunner signed or not signed? Do we have Stephen Weiss signed or not signed? I don’t know,†Holland said.

You can keep towing the line that "it is absolutely not clear that was the case" that Holland wasn't willing to match, that because there's no definitive firsthand account confirming or denying that that was the case, that the absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence etc., but then we're quickly going the way of flying spaghetti monsters. If Holland were willing to match, then don't you think that would be the "bomb" over at the Malik Report?

I don't think Mickey would blatantly lie for no reason. Him saying "Holland sent him an offer before free agency and during free agency" is pretty straightforward. As far as Holland being a straight shooter, are you under the impression that Holland is lying?

Straw-man. If you're at the end of the line while playing the telephone message game and end up with the garbled message, do you accuse the person who whispered you the message of lying? (or the person before them, or the person before them?)
I never accused either person of lying-- intentionally deceiving by saying something they knew not to be true. Holland is often discreet and economical with the truth (which can be deceptive at times, but in any case isn't necessarily lying). Mickey paraphrases as a rule, and that information on the Malik Report is Malik's synopsizing of Mickey's paraphrasing of what was apparently Holland's version of events. Given that manner in which it was reported and the context of how Malik presented it within the piece, it's pretty clear that it wasn't meant to be a refutation of Babcock's quote that "the money was all gone."

 

[abbbaron]

...there's nothing in Holland's history to suggest he would have offered Filppula a lowball deal.

See the above quotes from Holland. He pretty well knew that his offer to Fil wasn't up to scratch.

 

[Winger98]

See the above quotes from Holland. He pretty well knew that his offer to Fil wasn't up to scratch.

Except Filppula apparently came back around after seeing the quotes from some other teams. If our offer wasn't competitive to those, he wouldn't have bothered with that.

 

[Frk It]

See the above quotes from Holland. He pretty well knew that his offer to Fil wasn't up to scratch.

Same story with Hudler.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

Same story with Hudler.

Perhaps we need another Filppula/Hudler thread.

Feels like Groundhog Day right now.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Here are all of the relevant stats for Weiss and Riley "Unquestionably better than Stephen Weiss in every way without a doubt" Sheahan.

Even strength assists per even strength minute: SW .020859, RS .016995
Power play assists per power play minute: SW .054333, RS .031704
Even strength goals per even strength minute: SW .012515, RS .007998
Power play goals per power play minute: SW .027167, RS .02642
+/- per even strength minute: SW -.00417, RS -.003

Oops, for some reason it looks like Weiss is better across the board for all things offense related.

Unfortunately I've proved that Sheahan is indeed slightly better when measured by +/- per minute. But let's look at some hypotheticals for ***** and giggles.
If Weiss had seen one more goal for scored on his watch, or one more save by his goalie: SW -.00209, RS -.003
If Sheahan had seen one more goal against on his watch, or one more save by the opposing goalie: SW -.00417, RS -.004

So I guess the current +/- per minute advantage that Sheahan has is only accurate to a single lucky or unlucky bounce.

Are we still one hundred percent confident that Sheahan is better than Weiss at everything?
I mean I guess the only argument left is the good old "If Weiss had played more, his stats would be ****tier".
Compelling, I agree.

 

[abbbaron]

Except Filppula apparently came back around after seeing the quotes from some other teams. If our offer wasn't competitive to those, he wouldn't have bothered with that.

Because a desire to stay with the only NHL team he knew was out of the question?

 

[Winger98]

Because a desire to stay with the only NHL team he knew was out of the question?

If his offers from Holland were notably lower than what he was receiving elsewhere, yeah.

 

[Winger98]

And Sheahan was a clearly superior player to Weiss. Weiss was slow in transition, couldn't keep up with a backcheck, and was often entirely lost in the neutral zone where he either still didn't grasp our system or was just sloppy. Guy converted his offensive opportunities very well, but he was crap once he couldn't play within ten feet of the opposition's net.