Sorry, I'm probably going to be as wordy as Dean Lombardi here (even though I know it's not possible). To me, it's a combination of hubris and half measures which is really hurting the Kings:
The organization is quite a bit of a mess, and while I've wanted to give Blake time, I think it's better to remove him sooner rather than later.
Blake took over the team in June 2017, and he is in his 6th season. When he joined, the Kings had a fairly empty pipeline by virtue of Lombardi "going for it". Lombardi was subsequently fired, along with Sutter, who he hitched his wagon to.
Blake had the plan of doing a middle-ground approach of what Lombardi did: try to contend for the playoffs, but not spend major assets to do so. In 2017, players like Toffoli and Pearson had been in the org for quite a few years, and they were reaching that age when they should have started taking some form of ownership of the team's results. They didn't.
It was in the summer of 2018 when it was obvious the bulk of the team was deferring to Kopitar and Doughty: Kopitar is deferential by nature and Doughty had a lot of maturity issues. A rebuild of some sort should have happened. I, myself, saw there were still qualities Kopitar and Doughty brought, but they needed to be complemented with players who could fill the voids in leadership: alpha mentality and maturity. However, Toffoli and Pearson were valuable players and weren't ready to be part of the next wave, so they should have been traded in the summer of 2018 to get more valuable pieces to start the rebuild process.
This would ALSO give them a chance to reflect on how they developed their players. They haven't developed many successful scorers, and a chunk of that was because the org focused on team defense. However, because Blake had talked about improving scoring, this was a chance either to change the way resources are allocated in developing (the development staff), change the players the Kings targeted (the amateur scouts), or to change the style of the team (the coaching staff).
They did nothing except try to change the on-ice personnel, namely Kovalchuk. They scored 3 goals in 4 games and thought just one person would tip the scales (this will be a recurring theme). They just figured to have another kick at the can in the 2018-19 season, using all of the same staff. They kept Stevens, who focused on defense, and thought he would just make the team be more offensive. His idea of making the team more offensive was to have Kovalchuk, who made his career making shots from the point or in the high slot, be used as a screen for goalies instead. The reason? I kid you not, Stevens wanted to confuse the other team.
All the meantime the vets continued to be leaned on, with Kopitar logging 20+ minutes a night, getting harder minutes than any other forward in the league. People were calling for some sort of change, then it happened: Willie Desjardins.
There was a semblance of hope. Canucks fans were annoyed at how much he "balanced" ice time. It turned out to be the biggest blunder of the season. He almost immediately followed suit with overplaying the top lines. He expected scorers to be grinders. The entire team was directionless and lifeless. It was finally in December of 2018 that a somewhat major trade happened: Pearson for Hagelin. Now, I was excited about the Pearson trade, but not for Hagelin. The essential message was "We're going to trade Pearson for a rental; if we do well enough to make the playoffs, great. If not, we can trade a rental for draft capital". I believe Hagelin eventually went for a third and sixth? So, the Kings essentially turned a 26 year-old former first liner playing top-6 minutes into a 3rd rounder and 6th rounder.
In all fairness, once Blake committed to a rebuild, he moved parts well for value. He traded Muzzin for Durzi, Grundstrom, and a 2019 first (Bjornfot). However, that was the only other major move he made, and the Kings were a lottery team. Desjardins was fired and McLellan was brought in.
McLellan was brought in and there was a mishmash of results. The team was wildly inconsistent, but they still didn't want to commit to making any major changes until February 2020. This is Blake's biggest offseason as far as moves are concerned. These were the pieces sent out versus the pieces received:
LA traded:
Tyler Toffoli
Alec Martinez
Jack Campbell
Kyle Clifford
Derek Forbort
LA received:
Trevor Moore
Two-3rd round picks
Tim Schaller
Tyler Madden
Two-2nd round picks
Two-4th round picks
Of which one of those picks is still in the system (Alex Laferriere); the others were used for other trades (including Brock Faber). Tyler Madden is still in the system, but he's so far down the pipeline and has yet to get an NHL sniff, who knows if he'll stay with the Kings?
However, COVID happened. And a potentially franchise-altering draft occurred after the Kings did win the lottery and picked second overall.
I've already rambled a lot, so I'll try to be more concise. The Kings had the unique opportunity to have a second overall pick (Byfield) play in the AHL despite being in the CHL, This, in of itself, isn't a complete mishandling. However, it's emblematic of the Kings keeping as much vet talent as they can and marinating the prospects in the AHL until they almost don't have a choice. The idea of having vets to give the prospects competition was essentially lost, because even when prospects outplayed a vet, the vet would stay until he became a corpse (like what happened with Carter when he was traded that season). Now, mind you, I didn't want to just trade Carter or anybody away. Players should have had the opportunity to supplant the vet, build competition, and then make the hard decision then. Carter DID help bring Pearson and Toffoli to a point, and there was value in keeping him for more prospects to get to that particular point. Instead, Carter had to almost want out of LA for the Kings to want to move him. However, again, Carter was the only "major" trade the Kings made, and they got two-third round picks. They ended up missing the playoffs again and landed a top-10 pick, Clarke. Other significant moves made that season: trading for Olli Maatta and Brendan Lemieux.
That brings us to last season. Blake brought in Danault and traded for Arvidsson. He created a second line full of depth that buoyed the Kings into being better than they are. Also, Kempe, who has been rather middling his entire career, has a breakout season during a contract year. Despite him having this amazing season, it was still on par with Toffoli's best season with the Kings. But Kings fans have been so starved for some offense, it was seen as a sign of things to come. However, as we've mentioned so many times, the development of younger prospects hasn't really yielded any major results up front. There were a lot of injuries to the blueline, and by virtue of injury, we saw the Kings have several defensive prospects who can stand on their own. They made the playoffs and pushed the Oilers to 7, but the underlying issues were still there.
So, despite having a wealth of prospects, many of which are ready for an opportunity, Blake once again thought there was just one missing piece that had to be made: trading for Fiala. He traded one of the top prospects in the system who wouldn't sign right away, and a first round pick for another top-six forward. Despite the fact that his "rebuild" never yielded any of the prospects he drafted playing in a top position, aside from 4th round pick Mikey Anderson. The Kings are missing goaltenders and left-handed defensemen.
Blake has done a fantastic job building a pipeline with pieces which other organizations covet. The Kings are also scoring more. Aside from that:
- the prospects are still being admittedly suppressed (as pointed out by McLellan's interview and Yannetti's interview of how they like to "develop" prospects)
- They have the second worst goals against in the league
- They have the sixth worst penalty kill
- They are very short on left defense
- Their goaltending pipeline is non-existent
- No prospects have taken over the identity of the team... but now it's mostly from the organization not letting them, and continuing to lean on Kopitar and Doughty.
I think Blake has had enough time to implement a plan, and it's full of relying on the vets and just giving the prospect years the organization doesn't have to see if they actually make it, instead of actively helping them along the way.
That's not saying they "sabotage" the prospects. Just that their growth is more of a secondary or even tertiary bonus, instead of making sure it's an integral part of the plan. Let's not forget that Vilardi was at risk of being healthy scratched as recently as this offseason.